Gulfstream Week 2

Week of December 6 - 10

What A Week!

Indeed, this was one of "those" weeks where every day I handicapped I kept "seeing" very logical winners and getting paid for it!  My plan had been to go out to Gulfstream on either Wednesday or Thursday but the race selections just didn't line up.  I would have gone Friday as I had several selections, but the weather forecast said all week it would rain all day.  Instead the rain didn't come until Saturday so I missed being on track for that big day.  Still, Sunday was a crisp winter day with temps colder than we'd had since January 2016 and I was so excited Kim wanted to go out for a short visit.  I timed it out so we'd see my "BET of the Day" run and we had a good afternoon.  Here's the day-by-day breakdown to a fabulous week of racing........

Wednesday December 6
Ironic that as I went through the first Wednesday card of the meet I said to myself several times, "I know this seems like a pretty weak Calder field, but it will get better" - and then the rest of the week was oh-so-typical Gulfstream's winter meet!  The first four races all were beyond trying to find someone with an edge to bet.  So the first bet came in the fifth of the day, a non-winners of three lifetime event where the field was sprinting six and a half furlongs.  The first thing that jumped off the page to me was the program favorite.  This runner was such a bad bet - only two wins and all those slices AND it's not he was dropping in class today where he'd have a chance to improve.  Note he'd been the beaten favorite in five races recently as well.  He was an OBVIOUS play-against.  Could I find someone worth a bet to beat him?  Yes.  Mister Monk had an angle that was very intriguing to me.

You have to always like runners who turn back from a route to a 6 1/2 furlong or 7 furlong sprint; even better if it's a turf route to a dirt sprint.  That was the angle here.  But, note that Mister Monk had never been on "real dirt," he'd only raced on the grass or synthetic surfaces.  But to me, what off set this was the trainer's big stats with turf-to-dirt runners where he was winning a whopping 50% with an ROI over $3.00.  I made the minimum bet.  Mister Monk made his move entering the turn after tracking the favorite and he drew off in the final sixteenth.

I was so delighted that Mister Monk had seen his odds float up from the 3/1 program number to a huge 9/2 level, so he paid $11 to win - and even with a minimum bet I was cashing for nearly $30!  Great way to start the week. What surprised me most was in the post-race comments two of the Gulfstream analysts were bemoaning how the favorite could have lost....duh, 2-for-32?  What were you thinking?  In the sixth race I thought Run Blondie Run was a good value play at 5/1 odds in the program.  This turf runner was going for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.  Didn't look to be any strong win candidates in the field so I doubled the bet.  'Blondie got the perfect trip, tracking a longshot front runner into the turn, moved up to challenge, and ......  I was watching it as Kim came home and I pointed out I had number 9.  I've seen enough races to know trouble when I see it, and as she watched I remarked, "...don't tell me we aren't going to catch this 90/1 front runner......"  Oh so prophetic!

Wow - just added to the growing string of whopping payouts on the turf in just three days of racing at the meet.  I only had one more live pick and it was a Todd Pletcher maiden claimer.  Miss Sophia's Star looked to buck the one negative trend I've seen with Todd Pletcher young maidens.  He seems to send down his "second string" early to race at Gulfstream Park West.  When they don't win there and come here, they rarely run a good race.  But I thought this would be the exception.  Nope, she struggled to get third.  But with the nice payout of the winner earlier I was 33% for the day and lost very little money.

Thursday December 7
Today I had live picks from both Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds.  The wet weather that was scheduled to move into South Florida before we got our cold temps had arrived in New Orleans and we were off the turf.   In race two I liked Tale of Kantharos in a 3-lifetime turf sprint.  Last winter Luis Saez became the leading rider when Javier Castellano seemed to have forgotten what got him there - I'm still wondering if the change in agents has brought about changes in his riding.  But Saez was on Tale of Kantharos.  He went right to the front and wired the field comfortably.  But in mid-stretch he'd drifted in and caused tight quarters for a rival rallying up the rail.  There was cause for the objection and inquiry but I've seen a LOT worse.  After about five minutes the stewards announced he was DQ'd to second.

In the third Todd Pletcher entered Dial One in a claiming event.  That's not typical for Pletcher and usually when he drops someone into a claiming event he's ready to let them go.  BUT he also has strong numbers with his small number of claiming runners.  I thought this was a smart move because the colt would have earned for $80K for the connections if they lost him and made money on the deal.  Saez was on board for Pletcher and he pressed the early leader through the opening quarter before seizing control and running away as tons the best.

Cashed out for nearly $20 on the favorite.  After losing the opener at the Fair Grounds I had a pick in their third race, a claiming event going two turns on the main track.  Stately Defence had model/jockey Chantal Sutherland on board and while she's won a few races she's not been getting a lot of runners with legitimate chances.  But here she clearly had the best horse.  'Defence was 4-for-9 at at the trip and was dropping in class.  All she needed to do was avoid a pace duel.  Chantal sent him right to the front and he led uncontested into the stretch.  He was confronted by two others, but Chantal pushed him courageously to the wire and I was cashing for nearly $30!  HORRAY Chantal!

The sixth at Gulfstream was a very similar situation to the Dial One race.....Todd Pletcher was dropping Shanghai Jewel out of MSW company in for a tag going a mile on the turf.  The two-year-old filly ran well in her first two starts and looked easily best for Saez.  Right to the front and in complete control as the 3/5 favorite.  I was actually calculating the winnings when in mid-stretch.....

Seriously?  And as unbelievable as this seems, I've had a horse bolt through the rail, on the lead, on the turf, as the favorite, as my top bet before!  Sure winner to a "DNF" on the records sheet.  WOW.  Back to New Orleans for their fifth, another claiming event going a flat mile on the sloppy main track.  There are drops in class and then there are DROPS in class.  The last time that Hotfoot was seen he was setting the pace in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and here he was running for a mere $7.5K tag.  He's either much the best or he finishes in another zip code.  He stalked the pace into the stretch, swung into the clear and blew by to win.  With the massive class drop I wasn't willing to go more than the minimum, so I cashed for less than $15, but hey, a win is a WIN!  I missed in the eighth at Gulfstream and the sixth at the Fair Grounds.  The final selection of the day was also my "BEST of the Day."  The eighth at Gulfstream was a second level allowance going seven furlongs.  He'd run strong efforts last summer and was good enough that he'd been taken to Southern California with trainer Brian Lynch's Breeders' Cup string to train.  He didn't run there, but he looked like a very likely wire to wire winner here.  That was especially true because NO ONE else looked like they wanted any part of the front end.  The 9/2 second choice ran with him into the stretch and just when I thought he'd pull away he was dueling to about the 16th pole before he exerted himself and drew off as much the best.

Finish 4-for-9 for the day - whooo hoooo!

Friday December 8

While watching the races on Thursday the on-air analysts talked about how they were bringing back their "Beat The Experts" contest for the Friday card.  I had already handicapped the races for today and I had five races where I had betting choices and I had listed a top choice in each of the other five races, so I decided I'd send in my picks.  In the opener I liked Alaskan Prince (who got extra credit because Kim and I love to travel to Alaska) to close from the widest post in a claiming turf sprint, but with questions about the weather and not being ultra confident, I only used him in the contest.  And he blew by late to be up in time-WIN #1!  I readily admitted in my analysis that Al Khor was a "bad bet" in the second.  Listed as a prohibitive 3/5 favorite in a non-winners of two lifetime event going a one turn mile made him sketchy as a choice.  But he was trained by Todd Pletcher and would be simply better than these based on his bullet works even if he wasn't 100% today.  Have to admit it was worrisome that the connections had paid $500K for this one and today he was offered for a mere $12.5K.  Right to the front and never asked for his best.....WIN #2, and I'd be cashing for $20 as the crowd let him float up to even money!

In the third I went with a 5/1 runner who led into the turn before stopping badly.  I remarked in my analysis that both the program favorites were very vulnerable - they ran 1-2 :)  In the fourth Todd Pletcher sent out another 2yo maiden for a price tag.  I remarked in my comments that this might be a good gauge of how to evaluate the Pletcher stable who he'd been less than confident about in a recent interview.  On the upside, Pletcher simply rules Gulfstream as he shoots for his unprecedented FIFTEENTH straight training title.  On the downside would Titochip today run like My Sophia Star did yesterday when struggling to be third at a short price.  I didn't think so.  While she was like yesterday's pick in that she'd run at GPW last out, in that race she was away last, steadied and wide.  Despite that she finished third.  Top rider Luis Saez was up and he'd won three races his "first day on the job" on Wednesday (and he won another which was DQ'd AND would have won with Shanghai Jewel until that one bolted through the rail!).  I liked her alot and tripled the bet.  Sixth of seven into the turn before she kicked into gear and blew by the field, drawing off by nearly half a dozen lengths while under wraps.  WOWZA!  Win #3!

The fifth race was the highlight of the day.  I say it all the time and this was a BIG payoff for following my own advice.....at Gulfstream, in the winter you're either ALL IN on Pletcher or you try to beat him every time.  If you're guessing you'll miss some big payoffs with the top trainer and often a top rider.  This is especially true on the turf.  So here we were in a maiden claiming event for two-year-olds and Pletcher had a first time starter.  Typically Pletcher's best are in maiden special company and on the dirt.  But several years ago I learned - the hard way - that here is where you can make some money.  So I took Tiznow Times Two who was 6/1 in the program.  I was not watching the live feed today and as I was watching TV I got a text from my buddy Jim Anderson in Minnesota that said, "Nice pick at GP and at a good price."  So now I had to go check.  I opened the replay for this race and was Tiznow Times Two shoot right to the front from post position eight.  He was in complete control as they turned down the backside and the odds flashed up for the first time.  Oh my, he was 13/1!  As they spun out of the turn however the challengers were coming and at the furlong pole he was headed.  I thought to myself this must NOT be the race Jim was talking about.  But just as that thought went through my mind, he re-surged to the front and edged clear on the wire.  WOW.  The prices came up and he paid a whopping $29.40 - with my double investment I was cashing for nearly $150!  YOWZA!  WIN #4!

In the sixth I went with another price play, Grand Nene.  Flying late to just get second at 3/1 but no threat to the wire-to-wire winner.  The seventh was a pass for me, but my top choice Glorious Moment was the winner - WIN #5!  The eighth was my final bet of the day.  When I handicapped the forecast had called for rain so my remarks were that if - "in the unlikely event" - this stayed on the turf, then Christophe Clement's Fast Boat looked like a very likely winner.  He had dueled through fast fractions in his debut from a wide draw and held third.  But the key was that the winner of that 2yo MSW at Belmont had shipped to Del Mar and won the Grade 3 DeMille.  Fast Boat was the DRF's Mike Welsch's best bet.  He sat in fourth to the far turn, moved easily to challenge and then blew by effortlessly and under wraps to win going away!  WIN #6!

I am having a very good day!  I finished the betting day 4-for-6 at Gulfstream with a huge profit.  The last two races still mattered for the contest and remarkably I won the 9th - WIN #7 and in the finale, my contest top choice came flying late to win.....WIN #8!  EIGHT FOR TEN....what a day, and how remarkable that today I'd decided to enter my selections.  Just for the record, hottie Acacia Courtney closed the day with three wins.  I'd be a shoo-in to get the polo shirt as the winner of the contest, but the fine print in the rules said that if you beat the expert your name goes into a pool where three winners are "chosen at random."  I can't imagine that anyone had the same number of winners AND had the $29.40 winner, the longest price of the day.  I'll hope to hear from Gulfstream that I get the shirt, but even if I don't it was a great story to compliment an outstanding day!

Gulfstream Week 2 Highlights:  Part 1

But the day's results weren't over - oh no, I still had replays to watch from New Orleans!  In the second my top choice was Aubrey in a one mile event.  After the scratches because it was moved to the main track the field was reduced to only four fillies.  She went right to the front and went wire to head-bobbing-wire win at 3/1 :)  In the third Tabaddol was second as the 8/5 favorite.  The fourth and fifth were my co-best bets at the Fair Grounds.  In the fourth, a second level allowance, Mark Casse's Valadorna was making her return to the Fair Grounds.  She's never been off the board and that included two graded efforts here last winter.  Of a nine month break she'd been second at Churchill vs. similar and looked to move forward today.  She made her move on the turn, glided to the front and accelerated to the wire as an EASY winner.

I tripled the bet and collected nearly $25.  The fifth was the Magic City Stakes.  This was interesting because (a) it was a stakes race on a Thursday which is very unusual here; and (b) because it was restricted to ALABAMA-breds!  Yes, we are in New Orleans, Louisiana!  No race tracks in Alabama so this is where it's run.  Buggin' Out was part of a 4/5 entry and looked to be clearly the one to beat.  He'd won this race in both 2015 and 2016.  True to his short odds, he came running up the rail into the stretch, caught his stable mate and ran home easily under a hand ride!  Did not make a lot of money but it was yet another winner on the day!  Closed out the day with an off-the-board finish in the seventh, but by this time it didn't matter, as I closed the day with 60% winners and a profit of $150!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!

Saturday December 9
With the cold front being delayed and the big storms now looking to move through today AND a hockey game tonight I decided to make Sunday my day to go to Gulfstream when the weather would be crisp.  We had decided that we'd meet friends from Cypress Bay High School at a "Pints & Pucks" fund raiser sponsored by the Florida Panthers around 4:30 pm prior to the game and this just added to the reasons why I didn't want to go to Gulfstream this afternoon.  As the rains poured down around noon I remarked to Kim that I was sorry that the weather was so bad because today Gulfstream was hosting the Carribean Classic, the first time this series of four added money races was to be run in North America along with six two-year-old stakes events.  I'm sure they were expecting a big crowd.  But despite the weather they DID have a big crowd.

In the six non-Caribbean races I had four selections.  The opener was the Hut Hut Stakes going a one-turn mile.  The only "bad" effort turned in by my top choice, My Miss Momentum, had been when she tried the turf in the Grade 3 Jessamine over soft going.  The winner that day was Rushing Fall who came right back to win the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filly Turf!  So today I thought she looked formidable.  She took a lot of early money but as post time approached she floated above even money and then even higher!  She moved from near the back effortlessly on the turn, swung into the lane four wide and drew off in hand without ever being asked.

The big 8/5 price was very generous considering how good I thought she was.  You can tell from the photo above that the weather was miserable as racing began.  BUT, unlike the old days at Calder we were still on the grass in the second.  And the rain lightened up and honestly by the time we got to race four, it was a pretty decent day.  I missed in both the second and third, ironically both were Pletcher trained juveniles.  In the fourth, the House Party Stakes I thought the race was a real toss up and did not like any of the favorites.  I went against the Pletcher filly and landed on Take Charge Paula.  She had more starts than any of her rivals, more wins - three, and more stakes wins - two.  AND she had a stalking style to take advantage of the outside draw where there looked to be plenty of speed to set up her late kick.  Paco Lopez rode for Jersey-based Kelly Breen who was a sharp 27% with last out winners.  She sat chilly on the rail until they reached the top of the stretch, then Lopez moved her into the clear and asked for run.  She accelerated to catch the leader and edged clear late.

The price was a generous $9.40 and I had my second winner of the day!  Missed in the last race on my selection sheet and we headed out to the arena shortly there after to meet our pals.

We enjoyed meeting and chatting with the 'Bay peeps but the Panthers took a sound beating on the ice.  So we left a little early and I came home to watch the replays from the Fair Grounds where it had been Louisiana Champions Day.

The first three races were quarter horse races and the fourth was a starter stakes where the favorite had not been on the turf in a year and had never run in New Orleans.  Passed on to the fifth which was the Louisiana Champions Lassie for two-year-old fillies.  On Opening Day I'd tabbed Minit To Stardom, a daughter of champion Star Guitar and she debuted with an easy win.  I thought she looked much the best here if she didn't regress.  The Daily Racing Form's Marcus Hersch rarely likes the favorite, but he too was on her and remarked that the connections had probably circled this race and had used the MSW debut as a prep where they really didn't have her fully cranked.  It sure looked that way as the filly dueled three wide into the turn and then took off for the wire to win by a widening seven plus lengths under mild urging.

This one might be really good!  Cashed for close to $25!  In the sixth I picked a price horse in the program but she ran mid-pack as the favorite in the Louisiana Champions Ladies' Turf.  Next up was a maiden race and I went with another Star Guitar filly - second at a nice price.  Then it was post time for the Louisiana Champions Turf.  The winner of the prep race on Opening Day was back today he had the closing style that would probably win here, but that had been his first career turf win.  What were the odds he would win again.  My choice was Extra Credit who had been flying in that race and had JUST missed.  The key was the prep race had been at a mile and today he got an extra sixteenth of a mile.  Might be just enough to make a difference at a price.  I doubled down hoping to get a nice payoff.  At the top of the stretch you'll see in the highlight video below, Extra Credit looks way too far out of it to be a factor.  But in the long Louisiana stretch he got rolling and was up in time to score!

Better yet, he DID go off at a very sweet price of nearly 4/1 and with my double investment I cashed for almost $50!  NICE!  The ninth was the La Champion Juvenile and I went with another Star Guitar progeny, Divine Bean who had won for me on Opening Day.  Led from the gate to mid-stretch where he was caught and finished second as the tepid 2/1 favorite.  The tenth was the featured Louisiana Champions Day Classic and it was my BET of the Day.  Mobile Bay had won back-to-back La-bred races like this, but those had been in January and February.  Still, his Beyers were standouts and more importantly he looked like the lone speed at this nine furlong distance.  He rocketed out of the gate and was some nine lengths clear as they approached the far turn.  But then here came the field.  He dug in and was surrounded by a challenger on each side.  Looked to me like he was actually headed at the 16th pole but he would not give in and battled determinedly....PHOTO FINISH!  I thought it was really close but the results came up pretty rapidly - I'd won, again!  WHOOOOO HOOOOO!

The prime time investment meant I'd cash for over $30 on my fifth win of the day.  In the last bet of the day my pick was the 8/5 favorite and led into the far turn, dueled and faded to fourth.  But hey, it was another excellent day as I cashed on five of twelve selections and had a clear profit on the day!

Sunday December 10
We woke up this morning and it was BRISK with temps in the low 40s and a crystal blue sky above.  Kim had wavered about going to Gulfstream with me, but by mid-morning she decided it would be a good outing to spend the afternoon out in the crisp, fresh air.  I told her my plan since she was coming would be to get there in time for the opener, where I had a bet.  Do some filming during the second where I did not have a pick.  Then watch the third, which was my BET of the Day before heading home.  It was a gorgeous drive down and we found someone to take our photo in front of the paddock.

In the opener Jorge Navarro's drop-down favorite set the pace to mid-stretch, dueled and was just caught in the final strides.  I did all the video commentary for the "Week Two Highlights" that you see on this page and then we met at the rail for the third.  This was a mile and a sixteenth entry level allowance and my pick Giuseppe the Great look formidable on paper.  He'd run two sharp races before breaking his maiden decisively in his third start and then had seen nothing but graded company in his next six starts.  And he ran competitively with two seconds, two thirds, and a fourth.  The return to allowance company with top rider Luis Saez should get the job done.  With the first finish line and short stretch he needed to stay close to the pace, which he did and while it was oh so close - in fact from the angle we had of the finish line while along the rail I wasn't sure of the outcome, he was the winner!

HORRAY!  Three of my Gulfstream top selections were scratched - largely because all but two of the turf races were moved to the main track after all the rain yesterday.  So my only other pick was in the seventh, a MSW for two-year-olds.  No Todd Pletcher entry, but nearly as good was the favorite.  Treasure In Heaven.  She had debuted at Keeneland this fall at their demanding seven furlong distance and despite an outside post had dueled through sharp fractions.  She lost ground late but finished third of twelve.  Today she looked to have a much easier time and she did as she was an emphatic winner.

My triple investment returned almost $25.  I watched the four replays from the Fair Grounds later in the evening and while I only had one winner, I did cash for nearly $30 when Cordero came running down the middle of the course to be just up in time as a Fair Grounds 40% Club play for trainer Brad Cox.

And so one of the best weeks in a long time came to a close.  Anxious to get back at it next Wednesday.  The weather is supposed to remain cool until the weekend so maybe if the selections match up I can get out here twice during the week for some live racing!

Gulfstream Week 2 Highlights:  Part 2

Fair Grounds Week 2 / Gulfstream Opens!

November 30 - December 2

Thursday November 30

I kicked off the second full week of racing in New Orleans with two wins from four selections!  The first bet on the selection sheet came in the second and it was a Fair Grounds 40% Club play - Brad Cox with a turf router.  I have to admit that the fact that I've played this angle several times and only have cashed a single ticket did have an impact as I only invested the minimum amount.  Typically in every other "Handicapping Project" where I've purchased a Jim Mazur book to use the 40% Club, any Club play is an automatic minimum double investment.  But this was an unusual case.  As I mentioned in the analysis it was a "no win" scenario because of Queenofthepalace were to win and you did NOT have it, you'd say "I had the 40% Club angle right in front of me - why buy the book if you're not going to use it!"  Conversely, if she went down as the short-priced favorite, and she seemed destined to be a low number for sure, you could say, "....what was I thinking at a short price to back a runner that's 1-for-17 over the last two years AND is plunging in price today...."  Still, it IS a "club play" and 'Queen was first off the claim, a 36% winning move while getting jockey Jose Valdivia who has won at a whopping 45% for Cox.  It was a short field of four after several scratches and 'Queen got the ideal trip by sitting just off the flank of the front runner through pedestrian fractions.  When the other favorite made her move as they turned for home Queenofthepalace had too much left in the tank and she scored decisively as the 7/5 favorite.

My pick in the third scratched.  In the fourth Reine des Animaux was sent off at 9/5 but was way, WAY too far back early.  Her late run got her in a photo for fourth, denied as she was officially fifth in the final order.  Passed the fifth.....the sixth was my "best" of the day, a mid-level ($25K) turf claiming event.  And as I remarked in my analysis, despite the claiming level this was a very competitive field.  But to me the obvious class play was Italian Charm.  Scan down his past performances and after he'd won three in a row he faced multiple graded stakes placed Catapault, then Grade 1 winners Johnny Bear and American Patriot; then multiple stakes winner Slim Shadey and the Queens Plate winner Sir Dudley Diggs.  ANY of those would be 1/9 today in this spot.  I liked that 'Charm had run for this same $25K level at Saratoga where the competition is much stronger.  Then last time out trainer Joe Sharp (who'd claimed him for $25K at the Spa) tried blinkers and moved him into a $50K spot.  He obviously didn't like the shades and today they came off along with the return to the $25K price tag.  He tracked the leaders on the inside, swung out in the stretch and there were some bumps exchanged.  It was a stretch duel but on the wire he was up in time.  Then the INQUIRY light went on.  Uh oh - and it was against him and another.  But after reviewing the video the stewards let the winner stand while DQ'ing the runner up and placing him fourth behind the bothered runner.

I had last bet, in the finale.  My pick was 7/2 on the board at post time but was never in the race.  So for the day I was a good 2-for-4 and made a profit on the afternoon.

Friday December 1

Less than inspiring as I ran second twice from four picks - kudos to Brian Spencer who not only won with four of his ten selections today but one was a $35 longshot!

Saturday December 2:  Opening Day at Gulfstream

What a great day!  Click HERE for the day-specific journal on my adventures at Gulfstream on their Opening Day.

Gulfstream Park Opening Day 2017 Highlights

Sunday December 3

Finished off the week of racing with success at BOTH tracks as I nailed two winners at the Fair Grounds and two at Gulfstream to complete a 44% winning afternoon!  Whoooo hoooo!  As I worked my way through the card for Gulfstream I remembered how so often early in the meet you get so excited for the Championship Meet and the great talent that is on display only to be disappointed in a card that is very "Calder-like" with a lot of restricted local runners.  Such was the case today as I passed on four of the first five races.  But the second presented an opportunity....it was a bottom level non-winners of two lifetime for a bargain basement price of $6,250.  Six of the eight lost at this same level last time out but Party Tarde looked much different.  His loss last time out was for a $25K two lifetime condition AND it was his first facing winners.  Looking at his past performances he was over his head in three straight, then dropped significantly in class to win his maiden; last out, way over his head and today a significant drop to - as I saw it - win.  He broke like a rocket and quickly was multiple lengths in front.  He widened his advantage with each call until the final sixteenth when he finally was asked to run as his margin "diminished" to "only" 7 1/2 lengths under the wire!  Too bad I didn't have more confidence and simply played the minimum. 

But hey, a win is a win!  I had selections from the Fair Grounds and in their opener I reluctantly took a stand with Lady Digger.  She had many times been on a clear lead and quit.  But today the company was so mediocre that I thought today they'd all struggle to finish and she'd hold on.  But, as a wise handicapper once told me early in my "undergraduate days," .... a quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter.  And she faded later after being loose on the lead into the stretch.  Back to Gulfstream for their sixth and I was pretty excited about this one because this was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds on the main track and for the first time - and I'm sure there will be MANY more - there was a Todd Pletcher first time starter.  Noble Indy had been working since early August for today's debut and there are very few trainers better with first time starters, and none better than Pletcher at Gulfstream with his two year olds in December and three year olds in January through February.  Noble Indy was bet down from his 7/2 program odds to 3/2 favoritism.  After being reluctant to load - and causing concern that he was wasting his energy needed for the race - but broke sharply.  He was on a clear early lead but challenged shortly after he'd angled over to the rail and dueled for a quarter of a mile on the inside - something that's often difficult for a young thoroughbred.  But on the turn he began to open up and through the lane he lengthened his stride to draw off very impressively.  The final time for the seven furlongs was a sharp 1:22 and he looks to have a lot of promise. 

Then later I saw a write up on him in the Daily Racing Form.....

Oh yeah, that's right, and I had him!  Wondering if I'll have him on Florida Derby Day!  Right back in the fourth at the Fair Grounds.  Time To Flirt was trained by Brad Cox and the race was a two turn maiden event on the turf - that's right, it's FG 40% Club time!  Time To Flirt had already faltered seven times already and I have an unofficial limit of six tries before I'm not betting on a maiden runner.  But with Cox training and with Florent Geroux riding at a big 45% clip for Cox at the FG I doubled down.  Geroux went right to the front and while he had some pressure, when I saw the opening half mile in a pokey :50.1 I knew he'd be difficult to run down.  And they couldn't catch him as he opened up through the lane and scored by daylight as the even money favorite. 

I missed on my next two at the Fair Grounds and then on the last two picks from Gulfstream before getting to the finale in New Orleans.  It was a maiden claiming sprint going six furlongs for mid-level $25K juveniles.  Those with running lines did not inspire, but then I saw Autumn Flirt.  As a first time starter he wouldn't have to be much to be best here.  But he had the advantage of coming from the Al Stall barn and he's a very good 27% with his debut runners and an even stronger 38% (with a $4.04 ROI) with debuting maiden claimers.  He had to be good today because as he broke on top he was immediately pressured and dueled into the final sixteenth.  Not common for a first time starter to have the courage to stick around to the finish, but as they passed the final pole he edged clear to score as the 3/2 favorite with my double investment on him.  So for the day today I was an excellent 4-for-9 (44%).  This was particularly rewarding because it's not uncommon for me to have a big day on Saturday and then see the results disappoint the next day. 

I'll be back "at the races" on Wednesday as Gulfstream moves into it's first full week of winter racing!

Gulfstream: Opening Day 2017

Opening Day at Gulfstream HAS to be considered a success, and that was even before I added up all the results for the day!  Why?  For several reasons.......first, this is CLEARLY my most favorite time of the racing calendar when all the big names of the sport - both human and equine - are featured at my local racing venue.  Secondly, the weather today was spectacular.  Third, the racing experience itself was great - a big crowd, many "beautiful" people (see a few select pics below), and the roar of the crowd as the field turned for home made for a most exciting day!  And at the end of the day I'd won with four of ten Gulfstream selections and made nearly $30 on the day.  It is hard to judge that kind of afternoon anything but successful.  The ONLY thing I'd have changed would be if I'd been able to share the afternoon with my lovely wife Kimberly who for years we made Opening Day our anniversary outing - but to be fair that's when Gulfstream didn't open until January; still we typically make the trip out together and enjoy the day and lunch at our favorite restaurant just off the paddock, the Yard House.

I'd considered handicapping half a dozen tracks, but in the end decided to focus my attention on Gulfstream.  So I handicapped locally, did my usual Fair Grounds analysis as I continue to work towards my January trip there, and added Tampa and Aqueduct.  I arrived about 11:20, forty minutes before first post of the meet and had plenty of time to pick up my seat ticket and cash my left over tickets from my last visit to the live races then head upstairs to settle in for the opener.  A new "ticket lady" greeted me and was kind enough to take the excellent "Opening Day Photo" above.  The Gulfstream card featured two Maiden Specials on the grass for two-year-olds and the nine Claiming Crown Stakes, worth a collective total of $1.1 Million.  In the opener I went with the Christophe Clement filly Really Proud who was the popular 7/5 favorite.  Tracked the leaders to the far turn before weakening.  As a reminder as to just how challenging the Gulfstream winter meet is, the winner drew off by a POLE at odds of 60/1!  WOW, welcome back to Gulfstream my friends!  I missed at Aqueduct, which I watched on my phone via xpressbet.com, as I awaited the start of the first of the Claiming Crown Stakes, the Glass Slipper.  This was a one-turn mile contest and I thought that Mended looked much, MUCH the best.  Of the 427 career races run by the thirteen rivals lining up to face her today, N-O-N-E of those races earned a Beyer speed figure that would beat any of the LAST THREE earned by Mended.  WOW.  But, she was a speedster who looked to have company early AND was going a one-turn mile for the first time.  The long straightaway before reaching the far turn has done in many an inexperienced runner trying this unique configuration.  But, in addition to the huge Beyer advantage, the fact that she had been shipped from her home base at Golden Gates Fields in San Francisco for this race AND had brought along her regular rider told me that the connections were dead serious about winning.  Mended broke sharply, pressed the pace to the far turn and then set sail for the wire, drawing off as EASILY BEST!  That's what I'm talking about!

The triple investment returned over $30 and I was on my way!  My top pick in the third at Gulfstream was a Todd Pletcher colt which scratched.  This was the other MSW on the turf and much like the first, the winner won by daylight and at 50/1!  My next race was the third from Tampa and he too scratched.  I ran second in New York in Aqueduct's fifth then was a dismal 13th in Gulfstreams Claiming Crown Express Stakes with The Great Lou at 5/2 odds.  I was third at the Fair Grounds in their opener, a turf sprint.  Ironically the winner was the 3/5 favorite with a rider that was 0-for-17 for the barn - I'd never have bet that horse!  The fifth at Gulfstream was the Claiming Crown Distaff Dash for older fillies & mares sprinting five furlongs on the grass.  The only thing I thought that was an "issue" for my top pick, Blue Bahia was the rail draw.  Jockey Paco Lopez would have to be careful to not get caught up in a speed duel by going too fast early and would have to not get caught behind a wall of horses where he couldn't make the winning move.  That she'd won seven of ten turf sprints and went for top turf sprint trainer Jason Servis were big plus factors for me.  I had made a comparison chart for the day that showed all of my selections compared to those of the three "experts" at Gulfstream.  Good looking former model turned handicapper Acacia Courtney had also liked Blue Bahia and I've found she's not only a pretty good racing analyst, but her selections often pay better than the favorites picked by the other two locals.  Blue Bahia stalked the leaders in third to the top of the lane before Lopez eased her off the rail and into the clear.  He's typically such a dominant rider at the summer Monmouth meet he's been accused of looking back "condescendingly" when he knows he's the winner as his mount sprints for the wire.  When I see "that look" I know I'm in good shape.  And as soon as Paco hit the front he gave "the look" drawing a big smile from me as I filmed the stretch run!  WHOOO HOOO!

The $5.20 payoff led to my winning ticket being worth over $25 on my second stakes winner of the day at Gulfstream.   Missed on the next four - back to back second place finishes at first Aqueduct and then Tampa before running off the board at the Fair Grounds and locally in the Claiming Crown Iron Horse Stakes.  The sixth at Tampa saw my horse scratch and that brought us to the Claiming Crown Canterbury Stakes.  This was the companion race to the Distaff Dash only this one was for the boys going the same five furlongs on the turf.  I saw on a preview video that there were over 160 horses entered for today's Gulfstream's races and like most Gulfstream cards, I thought the races were very competitive.  BUT of all the eleven races I thought that Pay Any Price in this spot was the standout of the day.  Of the 350 career races run by his rivals THREE speed figures would be good enough to challenge only two of his last five - they'd be clearly second best if he ran any of the other three in a streak of Beyer figures that read 102-98-97-107-100.  In addition he was the course record holder at this distance and had a local record of 9/7-1-0.  He just looked way too good for these.  Initially, because he - like Mended earlier - was a front runner that could be compromised by other front running types - I planned to only bet $30, which was the amount I'd made my "Bet of the Day" last year on Opening Day.  But as the horses warmed up and I went to the windows to bet I just had this feeling that he was simply the best and was worth additional investment dollars.  It didn't hurt that the other three handicappers had all put him on top as well.  FIFTY to WIN please!  He did indeed face early pressure, but opened up on the far turn and had a daylight lead turning for home.  Then the fact that he'd not been out since July 1st began to take it's toll as the field began to narrow the margin.  But it was too little, too late and I'd won my THIRD stakes of the day.  Oh I'm having a very good day my friend!

My $50 WIN ticket was good for $75 and if you watch the highlight video you'll note the excitement as the camera does not seem to stay on Pay Any Price like any of the other races.  Ahhhh it's part of what make's it "real" and not professional, right?  :)  I missed on four more, all stakes races.  Daisy led into the stretch in Aqueduct's Grade 2 Demoiselle for 2yo fillies before weakening to be fourth.  Triple Chelsea was even money and third in the first division of the Fair Grounds' Richard Scherer Memorial Stakes; Shaft of Light was a huge disappointment as the 2/1 favorite when running 9th in the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit and Avery Island ran second in the Grade 2 Remsen for 2yo colts at Aqueduct.  The next race on the sheet was the eighth from Tampa, and it became the first non-Gulfstream winner of the winter.  It was hard to have real confidence in Jaunt who was a TEN time maiden running today at Tampa.  But, she was owned by legendary Calumet Farms and trained by Hall of Fame conditioner Shug McGaughey.  The last three Beyer figures were better than any number the rest of the field had ever seen.  Still, the six times running 2nd or third were worrisome.  Third off the shelf meant she SHOULD run her best today....it was win today or maybe she just had no running ability.  But today she blew by the field and ran away as easily the best.  Cashed on a triple investment for nearly $30.  The ninth at Gulfstream was the Claiming Crown Tiara and Starship Jubilee was the BEST BET for two of the local handicappers.  Considering that she'd run figures in three of her last four that would out perform any lifetime speed figure I could see why.  But there's that ONE figure that could see her beaten.  And the fact that she'd won back-to-back graded stakes at Woodbine did seem to make her look awfully tough.  Still....she'd been claimed for $16K out of a race here and maybe, just maybe those were such stiff races up north.  I went prime time but couldn't see her as a better "BEST" than Pay Any Price had been.  She tracked the leaders comfortably, glided to the front, opened up and looked home free into the stretch.  But she shortened stride late and was passed but not one but two rivals as the 8/5 favorite.  But there was little time to bemoan the loss as the one and only Grade 1 event on the national calendar was coming up in less than ten minutes.  It was the Grade 1 Cigar Mile from Aqueduct.  To me, I thought that multiple graded stakes winning Sharp Azteca looked formidable.  He is especially good at these one-turn mile events and he'd proven himself when just failing to last in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile around two turns a month ago.  While he didn't have a Grade 1 win on his resume, the rest of the field looked overmatched.  As they entered the track I was stunned to see him on the board at 6/1 odds.  Even checked the program online to make sure I'd not had a typo when making my selection sheet.  Nope.  But the closer it got to race time his odds drifted downward.  Typically he's a loose-on-the-lead front runner, but today he allowed two others to duel up front as Javier Castellano took over the mount while Paco Lopez was having a big day here at Gulfstream (three wins on the day).  As heads turned for home Sharp Azteca took off and while there looked to be a brief challenge from stretch-out sprinter Mind Your Biscuits (who'd beaten him by a nose in the Grade 1 Malibu going seven furlongs last December), there was no catching him today as he won handily by five plus.

HORRAY for me!  I'd tripled the bet and my ticket would be worth more than $50 as somehow what I thought was an easy pick paid $5.50 to win.  Two races left on the Gulfstream card and then I planned to head for home and watch the late college football games before checking the replays on the final three races from the Fair Grounds.  In the tenth, the Emerald on the turf I had a price play, and in the 11th, the Jewel I liked Gigantic Breeze, but he'd never been on "real dirt" before so I had some concerns.  I made all of my late bets and went to my seat to watch the two final live races.  The Emerald looked to have a lot of speed and should set up for a closer I thought.  There were several to choose from but I liked the fact that Special Ops had won two in a row prior to his most recent where finishing behind a horse named Shining Copper and that one exited that event to win a Grade 3 stakes at Churchill Downs last weekend.  Worth a shot.  As they moved midway on the turn the GP announcer called that "Special Ops was on the move widest of all....." I had filmed all the live races today and I had my camera ready, but unlike the other races where I really thought I had a chance I was sitting back watching the stretch run.  But like he'd been shot out of a cannot Special Ops came flying down the middle of the turn course to surge to the front in deep stretch and win going away!  Not only that but he'd been a huge 7/1 at post time!

Oh I wished I'd bet more than the minimum, but still the $5 play returned over $40 to my bankroll.  I am truly having a good time today!  Gigantic Breeze went off as a mild 2/1 favorite but never picked up his feet finishing a bad 11th.  I thoroughly enjoyed the drive home after such a great day with a four-for-ten resume locally and riding in my sports car with the windows down as the sun set on the horizon.  Once home I watched Ohio State win the Big Ten Championship in a close game.  At halftime I watched the replays of the final three races at the Fair Grounds.  In the second division of the Richard Scherer Memorial - a five furlong turf sprint - I thought Rapid Rhythm looked, as I wrote in my analysis "a very likely winner" IF able to produce his best.  I thought this a very likely occurrence since he was 7-for-13 in turf sprints and he'd won not one but two turf sprints here last winter.  In addition I took note thanks to Jim Mazur's "Fair Grounds Handicapper" that trainer Michael Stidham produced most of his winners (59%) when they were coming off a layoff like Rapid Rhythm was doing today.  He was mid-pack to the far turn when he launched his rally.  Six wide into the lane he closed with a determined rush and WON!  Not only did he win, but he paid a remarkable $9.60 ....... I'd tripled the bet so I would be cashing for nearly $75 on my final winner of the day!

W-O-W, what an ending to a fabulous day!  Welcome back Gulfstream Park!

Gulfstream Park Opening Day Highlights

Opening Day 2017 In Pictures