November 30 - December 2
Thursday November 30
I kicked off the second full week of racing in New Orleans with two wins from four selections! The first bet on the selection sheet came in the second and it was a Fair Grounds 40% Club play - Brad Cox with a turf router. I have to admit that the fact that I've played this angle several times and only have cashed a single ticket did have an impact as I only invested the minimum amount. Typically in every other "Handicapping Project" where I've purchased a Jim Mazur book to use the 40% Club, any Club play is an automatic minimum double investment. But this was an unusual case. As I mentioned in the analysis it was a "no win" scenario because of Queenofthepalace were to win and you did NOT have it, you'd say "I had the 40% Club angle right in front of me - why buy the book if you're not going to use it!" Conversely, if she went down as the short-priced favorite, and she seemed destined to be a low number for sure, you could say, "....what was I thinking at a short price to back a runner that's 1-for-17 over the last two years AND is plunging in price today...." Still, it IS a "club play" and 'Queen was first off the claim, a 36% winning move while getting jockey Jose Valdivia who has won at a whopping 45% for Cox. It was a short field of four after several scratches and 'Queen got the ideal trip by sitting just off the flank of the front runner through pedestrian fractions. When the other favorite made her move as they turned for home Queenofthepalace had too much left in the tank and she scored decisively as the 7/5 favorite.
My pick in the third scratched. In the fourth Reine des Animaux was sent off at 9/5 but was way, WAY too far back early. Her late run got her in a photo for fourth, denied as she was officially fifth in the final order. Passed the fifth.....the sixth was my "best" of the day, a mid-level ($25K) turf claiming event. And as I remarked in my analysis, despite the claiming level this was a very competitive field. But to me the obvious class play was Italian Charm. Scan down his past performances and after he'd won three in a row he faced multiple graded stakes placed Catapault, then Grade 1 winners Johnny Bear and American Patriot; then multiple stakes winner Slim Shadey and the Queens Plate winner Sir Dudley Diggs. ANY of those would be 1/9 today in this spot. I liked that 'Charm had run for this same $25K level at Saratoga where the competition is much stronger. Then last time out trainer Joe Sharp (who'd claimed him for $25K at the Spa) tried blinkers and moved him into a $50K spot. He obviously didn't like the shades and today they came off along with the return to the $25K price tag. He tracked the leaders on the inside, swung out in the stretch and there were some bumps exchanged. It was a stretch duel but on the wire he was up in time. Then the INQUIRY light went on. Uh oh - and it was against him and another. But after reviewing the video the stewards let the winner stand while DQ'ing the runner up and placing him fourth behind the bothered runner.
I had last bet, in the finale. My pick was 7/2 on the board at post time but was never in the race. So for the day I was a good 2-for-4 and made a profit on the afternoon.
My pick in the third scratched. In the fourth Reine des Animaux was sent off at 9/5 but was way, WAY too far back early. Her late run got her in a photo for fourth, denied as she was officially fifth in the final order. Passed the fifth.....the sixth was my "best" of the day, a mid-level ($25K) turf claiming event. And as I remarked in my analysis, despite the claiming level this was a very competitive field. But to me the obvious class play was Italian Charm. Scan down his past performances and after he'd won three in a row he faced multiple graded stakes placed Catapault, then Grade 1 winners Johnny Bear and American Patriot; then multiple stakes winner Slim Shadey and the Queens Plate winner Sir Dudley Diggs. ANY of those would be 1/9 today in this spot. I liked that 'Charm had run for this same $25K level at Saratoga where the competition is much stronger. Then last time out trainer Joe Sharp (who'd claimed him for $25K at the Spa) tried blinkers and moved him into a $50K spot. He obviously didn't like the shades and today they came off along with the return to the $25K price tag. He tracked the leaders on the inside, swung out in the stretch and there were some bumps exchanged. It was a stretch duel but on the wire he was up in time. Then the INQUIRY light went on. Uh oh - and it was against him and another. But after reviewing the video the stewards let the winner stand while DQ'ing the runner up and placing him fourth behind the bothered runner.
I had last bet, in the finale. My pick was 7/2 on the board at post time but was never in the race. So for the day I was a good 2-for-4 and made a profit on the afternoon.
Friday December 1
Less than inspiring as I ran second twice from four picks - kudos to Brian Spencer who not only won with four of his ten selections today but one was a $35 longshot!
Saturday December 2: Opening Day at Gulfstream
What a great day! Click HERE for the day-specific journal on my adventures at Gulfstream on their Opening Day.
Gulfstream Park Opening Day 2017 Highlights
Sunday December 3
Finished off the week of racing with success at BOTH tracks as I nailed two winners at the Fair Grounds and two at Gulfstream to complete a 44% winning afternoon! Whoooo hoooo! As I worked my way through the card for Gulfstream I remembered how so often early in the meet you get so excited for the Championship Meet and the great talent that is on display only to be disappointed in a card that is very "Calder-like" with a lot of restricted local runners. Such was the case today as I passed on four of the first five races. But the second presented an opportunity....it was a bottom level non-winners of two lifetime for a bargain basement price of $6,250. Six of the eight lost at this same level last time out but Party Tarde looked much different. His loss last time out was for a $25K two lifetime condition AND it was his first facing winners. Looking at his past performances he was over his head in three straight, then dropped significantly in class to win his maiden; last out, way over his head and today a significant drop to - as I saw it - win. He broke like a rocket and quickly was multiple lengths in front. He widened his advantage with each call until the final sixteenth when he finally was asked to run as his margin "diminished" to "only" 7 1/2 lengths under the wire! Too bad I didn't have more confidence and simply played the minimum.
But hey, a win is a win! I had selections from the Fair Grounds and in their opener I reluctantly took a stand with Lady Digger. She had many times been on a clear lead and quit. But today the company was so mediocre that I thought today they'd all struggle to finish and she'd hold on. But, as a wise handicapper once told me early in my "undergraduate days," .... a quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter. And she faded later after being loose on the lead into the stretch. Back to Gulfstream for their sixth and I was pretty excited about this one because this was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds on the main track and for the first time - and I'm sure there will be MANY more - there was a Todd Pletcher first time starter. Noble Indy had been working since early August for today's debut and there are very few trainers better with first time starters, and none better than Pletcher at Gulfstream with his two year olds in December and three year olds in January through February. Noble Indy was bet down from his 7/2 program odds to 3/2 favoritism. After being reluctant to load - and causing concern that he was wasting his energy needed for the race - but broke sharply. He was on a clear early lead but challenged shortly after he'd angled over to the rail and dueled for a quarter of a mile on the inside - something that's often difficult for a young thoroughbred. But on the turn he began to open up and through the lane he lengthened his stride to draw off very impressively. The final time for the seven furlongs was a sharp 1:22 and he looks to have a lot of promise.
Then later I saw a write up on him in the Daily Racing Form.....
Oh yeah, that's right, and I had him! Wondering if I'll have him on Florida Derby Day! Right back in the fourth at the Fair Grounds. Time To Flirt was trained by Brad Cox and the race was a two turn maiden event on the turf - that's right, it's FG 40% Club time! Time To Flirt had already faltered seven times already and I have an unofficial limit of six tries before I'm not betting on a maiden runner. But with Cox training and with Florent Geroux riding at a big 45% clip for Cox at the FG I doubled down. Geroux went right to the front and while he had some pressure, when I saw the opening half mile in a pokey :50.1 I knew he'd be difficult to run down. And they couldn't catch him as he opened up through the lane and scored by daylight as the even money favorite.
I missed on my next two at the Fair Grounds and then on the last two picks from Gulfstream before getting to the finale in New Orleans. It was a maiden claiming sprint going six furlongs for mid-level $25K juveniles. Those with running lines did not inspire, but then I saw Autumn Flirt. As a first time starter he wouldn't have to be much to be best here. But he had the advantage of coming from the Al Stall barn and he's a very good 27% with his debut runners and an even stronger 38% (with a $4.04 ROI) with debuting maiden claimers. He had to be good today because as he broke on top he was immediately pressured and dueled into the final sixteenth. Not common for a first time starter to have the courage to stick around to the finish, but as they passed the final pole he edged clear to score as the 3/2 favorite with my double investment on him. So for the day today I was an excellent 4-for-9 (44%). This was particularly rewarding because it's not uncommon for me to have a big day on Saturday and then see the results disappoint the next day.
I'll be back "at the races" on Wednesday as Gulfstream moves into it's first full week of winter racing!
But hey, a win is a win! I had selections from the Fair Grounds and in their opener I reluctantly took a stand with Lady Digger. She had many times been on a clear lead and quit. But today the company was so mediocre that I thought today they'd all struggle to finish and she'd hold on. But, as a wise handicapper once told me early in my "undergraduate days," .... a quitter, is a quitter, is a quitter. And she faded later after being loose on the lead into the stretch. Back to Gulfstream for their sixth and I was pretty excited about this one because this was a Maiden Special for two-year-olds on the main track and for the first time - and I'm sure there will be MANY more - there was a Todd Pletcher first time starter. Noble Indy had been working since early August for today's debut and there are very few trainers better with first time starters, and none better than Pletcher at Gulfstream with his two year olds in December and three year olds in January through February. Noble Indy was bet down from his 7/2 program odds to 3/2 favoritism. After being reluctant to load - and causing concern that he was wasting his energy needed for the race - but broke sharply. He was on a clear early lead but challenged shortly after he'd angled over to the rail and dueled for a quarter of a mile on the inside - something that's often difficult for a young thoroughbred. But on the turn he began to open up and through the lane he lengthened his stride to draw off very impressively. The final time for the seven furlongs was a sharp 1:22 and he looks to have a lot of promise.
Then later I saw a write up on him in the Daily Racing Form.....
Oh yeah, that's right, and I had him! Wondering if I'll have him on Florida Derby Day! Right back in the fourth at the Fair Grounds. Time To Flirt was trained by Brad Cox and the race was a two turn maiden event on the turf - that's right, it's FG 40% Club time! Time To Flirt had already faltered seven times already and I have an unofficial limit of six tries before I'm not betting on a maiden runner. But with Cox training and with Florent Geroux riding at a big 45% clip for Cox at the FG I doubled down. Geroux went right to the front and while he had some pressure, when I saw the opening half mile in a pokey :50.1 I knew he'd be difficult to run down. And they couldn't catch him as he opened up through the lane and scored by daylight as the even money favorite.
I missed on my next two at the Fair Grounds and then on the last two picks from Gulfstream before getting to the finale in New Orleans. It was a maiden claiming sprint going six furlongs for mid-level $25K juveniles. Those with running lines did not inspire, but then I saw Autumn Flirt. As a first time starter he wouldn't have to be much to be best here. But he had the advantage of coming from the Al Stall barn and he's a very good 27% with his debut runners and an even stronger 38% (with a $4.04 ROI) with debuting maiden claimers. He had to be good today because as he broke on top he was immediately pressured and dueled into the final sixteenth. Not common for a first time starter to have the courage to stick around to the finish, but as they passed the final pole he edged clear to score as the 3/2 favorite with my double investment on him. So for the day today I was an excellent 4-for-9 (44%). This was particularly rewarding because it's not uncommon for me to have a big day on Saturday and then see the results disappoint the next day.
I'll be back "at the races" on Wednesday as Gulfstream moves into it's first full week of winter racing!
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