You just don't find many weeks that produce the kind of handicapping results I had this week. It started out great and ended even better! I continue to have remarkable, and unprecedented success with my handicapping at the Championship Meeting and I am oh-so-hopeful that it continues through the final six weeks. But at this point, this winter and this week in particular have been just amazing. Here's how it all played out.....
Wednesday February 7
When I sat down Tuesday morning with my coffee and began the handicapping for the week I was determined to live up to my promise to myself to head out to the races at least once during the week as well as to be there for the big Saturday of racing. But I was also very conscious of "letting the race come to me" and not trying to "make a race" be the bet. Through the first few races I didn't think that this Wednesday card would be "the one" that would let me make the drive to Hallandale Beach, but by the time I was done I DID think I had a good chance to see a few winners live. None that were "BET of the Day" worthy but solid enough to enjoy a few hours in the warm Florida winter sunshine. I didn't have a bet in the opener, but I did have a pick. I was trying to time my arrival to be at the track between the first and second but the trip was so smooth I arrived five minutes before post time and I considered playing my top choice because all three of the Gulfstream analysts had the same runner on top. We can't ALL be wrong, can we? But then I said, "be calm, wait and watch....you didn't like it enough to make it a bet, so don't bet it." Oh so prophetic! The runner was close, but second - would have been a loss. In the second I had a play, but not at first glance. Post position 2 belonged to Put Em Up, the 2/1 program favorite. But he'd won last time out in the cheapest of maiden claimers. I don't like to play last out maiden winners generally, and most especially maiden claimers, especially bottom-level maiden claimers. His speed figure had been a pokey 42 - that's not going to win many races. But then I scanned his rivals in this non-winners of two lifetime sprint.....they had records of 1-for-24, 1-for-21, 1-for-17, 1-for-17, 1-for-28, and 1-for-13 (with a rider that was 2-for-25). Could there be a weaker field? I think not. I made him the bet under jockey Tyler Gafflione. Right to the front and the rest of the field of "no, no, I don't want to win, you go ahead runners" just let him coast to the wire. Put Em Up had been 1/9 early on, then 1/5 but his odds kept floating up and at post time he was an inflated 6/5. My double investment netted me nearly $25 on the first bet of the week! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
Race 3 was a maiden claimer and it was even more undecipherable than the first race; but again I considered betting because several of the "pros" liked my pick. But again I resisted...and again I was prophetically correct as the pick ran third. Under typical circumstances I'd probably have passed the fourth as well, but the DRF's Mike Welsch made Caloric his "BEST of the Day." I knew this runner because last time out he'd won for me as a "Pletcher Plunger" - dropping out of MSW company to a maiden claimer and won for fun. But he'd been claimed away. And that was something I thought was a positive in this circumstance because new trainer Jason Servis was winning 40% of his first off the claim runners. Add that to Welsch's "best" angle and I decided I'd go along for the ride. He pressed the pace through the turn, swung out three wide to take over but was immediately challenged by my second choice, an older, multiple winner (albeit vs. cheaper). But jockey Irad Ortiz, well known for his patience, had plenty left and he let Caloric loose as he ran to the wire first, and suddenly I'm two-for-two! Oh what a good way to start the week!
The next race was a turf event and I went with a price play. Six-to-one leaving the gate my horse pressed the issue into the far turn and I thought, hey - maybe.....but then he stopped like he was shot to finish 9th. Well, you can't reasonably expect to win EVERY race :) Next up was another double investment choice for me, Carbon Data on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs vs. $16K non-winners of three lifetime. I didn't want to invest more because this guy had just won a $30K nw2L. So I had mixed feelings.....on the upside, out of a 2-lifetime into a 3-lifetime spot he WOULD fit better dropping in class, but if you'd just won for $30K wouldn't you want to maybe try OPEN runners for say $20K? Why "give" the horse away? But as I wrote in my analysis, I could as easily see him winning for fun as losing....he was trained by top North American turf conditioner Chad Brown and had Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano in the irons. So, ok, I'm on board. But while I was in the paddock watching the three analysts talk about the race they noted that ALL THREE of them liked this guy on top and TWO of them had singled him in the multi-race wagers. AND he was being played strongly not only to win but in all the multi-race payouts. I thought about it and then made the big decision - I'm upping the bet! The gates sprung open and Castellano took him right to the front. Never, ever challenged and he walked with it by daylight!
Oh that's right my friends, I didn't just up the bet by adding an additional $5, I upped the bet from the original $10 by an additional $20! WHAT A DAY! I decided to head for home at this point, it was close to 3 pm and I wanted to miss the rush hour traffic. I had three more selections, but none of them won....but thanks to the increased wager on Carbon Data I had not only had a big day percentage wise (38%) but also I had made a profit for the day. And most importantly the winners had come while I was there watching live!
Thursday February 8
When I handicapped the Thursday card and finished I thought to myself, "....this is just one of "those" cards" where you have some picks, you win a couple and you grind away again tomorrow...." From the ten race card I had four selections, three were a double investment and the "best bet" was simply a triple investment. I watched the live feed from home as I worked on the computer and then waited for Kim to come home. In the opener my horse had scratched, so I wasn't playing. But as I listened to the three analysts they all talked about what a significant scratch this was and how it simply left my second choice, Sun of Tara, as CLEARLY the one to beat. I looked at the betting pools and probable payoffs for the early double and thought, "....I think they are right.....he IS the one to beat..." and so I didn't stick with the double investment, but I did make the bet. He was held snugly by Jose Ortiz to the turn, then glided three wide for clear run and accelerated by to win decisively. WOW, what a smart guy I am to make this decision!
The second race had initially been a PASS race at first glance when I first saw the favorite in post position one, I thought to myself, "This would have to be a REALLY soft maiden field for this guy to win" - and it could not have been much softer! Transistor had earned a field best 72 Beyer last time out and THAT figure would win for fun, but it was also way out of line with his most recent figures. So here was my thinking......IF you toss that number and he ran back to one of the three previous numbers (59-50-53) the best LIFETIME number his rivals had earned were 33-39-45-49-52. So the lone threat appeared to be the outside drawn runner who had one time earned a 52. But he came from a barn winning at a meager 6% - yes SIX - and he'd been beaten by Transistor earlier in the meet, decisively! I'm in for double the bet. He had Javier Castellano on today and I've said many times that over the last two years he just isn't riding like he was when he was the best jockey down here for several years running. But to be fair, in the last month he seems to have "returned to form." But here he had Transistor off a step slowly, then was in tight, so he was taken back. He made a move approaching the turn on the rail but was checked out of it....really? But I could see Castellano still had not asked for his best. Waited, waited, then a seam opened, he burst through and was first to the wire. Ok, you get my kudos Mr. Castellano!
Transistor was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite so I wasn't making much profit, but a win is a win! No bet in the third, fourth, or fifth. The sixth was my "best" of the day, Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown. On October 17 he was coming off a long layoff and making his first start for Brown when a sharp second with a big 85 speed figure. So when he showed up here on December 15 he was my top choice. He tracked the leaders, moved to the front, but was nailed by a longshot on the wire. Still, he improved his speed figure to an 88. Third off the shelf, improving figures, he's the bet. It was made more interesting that Mr. Brown had another in here, a highly regarded first time starter that was preferred by at least one of the GP analysts. But I stuck to my guns. I was watching the live feed on our "new" 55" HD television in the newly-designed family room as Johnny Velazquez set him down into the stretch to make the sprint to the wire (he's #1). This time he cleared the field and ran on confidently to victory!
Make it three wins in a row - wow. One more race on the selection sheet - it was the very next race, a turf sprint for allowance runners. I KNEW everyone would be all over Platinum Prince because he had the best speed figures. But one thing I learned when I used to make my own speed figures is that the only TRUE figure is the one earned by the winner. The rest of the field gets THEIR Beyer figure based on what the winner earned. And while they are generally accurate, you always have to question big numbers earned when NOT in winning efforts. Such was the case here as the last win for Platinum Prince had come in February 2016! But he was two guys' top picks, one of those made him his BEST bet. And hottie Acacia Courtney made her BEST in this race with my second choice who DID have the excuse of being fanned seven wide in a KEY race, but in comparing his races to that of my choice, Little Chesney, they looked very similar but her pick was a deep closer and in a bulky field going only five furlongs I thought he might get another wide trip and be compromised. Little Chesney was listed at 9/2 and he was sitting at 5/2 as they loaded into the gate. Then I saw the jockey for Platinum Prince, who was even money, hop off. Then he undid the saddle and pulled the saddle cloth off. BOOOOOO - he was scratched and now all the money went on Little Chesney. He was confidently placed just off two dueling leaders through the turn, then swung out into the clear and ran away to the wire - the closer, never a factor.
My double investment got me back a little under $20 but for the day, a perfect 4-for-4 and I'd made a tidy little profit! WHAT A DAY!
Friday February 9
I had six selections today and I was handicapping the races for the all-out attack on Saturday when I suddenly realized I'd missed the first race, and I had a bet! But, for one of the very few times of the meet I'd gone against a Todd Pletcher horse, one that had won for me last time at a huge $15 payoff, and went with another. My pick ran second to....that's right, the Pletcher colt who paid over $10. At least I didn't lose :) In the third I was "right" but didn't win. Multiple graded stakes sprinter Mind Your Biscuits was running in an allowance sprint and using it as a prep for defense of his title in the Group 2 $2 Million Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup Night (which will be run the morning of the Florida Derby!). He'd done this same thing last year and did NOT win, I didn't think he'd be all out today so I went with Todd Pletcher's unbeaten One Liner. He ran third, but Mind Your Biscuits did NOT win, second behind a 16/1 upset winner. I took some satisfaction there. In the fifth I really, REALLY liked Salute With Honor. Trained by Mark Casse this guy was coming off a layoff, but he'd twice run HUGE off a break and he had a best-of-28 bullet to reinforce my feeling that he'd run big today. He'd been third to Pletcher's One Liner and second in a Tampa stakes last year. Today he dropped out of OPEN stakes and OPEN allowance to run in an Allowance-Optional Claimer for state-breds which allowed runners in for the cheap $12.5K price tag. If he was ready he'd win by daylight. He was away slowly and in a six furlong sprint that's not the ideal situation. He was still near the back as the field hit the far turn, but he began to hit is stride. Still fourth at the furlong marker, but he was FLYING up the rail and cleared the field at the 16th pole and drew off easily. The best news.....he was nearly 5/2 on the board!
The prime time investment meant I'd cash for almost $70 and despite this being the LONE WINNER on the day for me, I made a profit of almost $10. Three profitable days in a row and I'm clicking at a nice win percentage for the week heading into the big day.
Saturday February 10: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
Click HERE to read the journals about the big TEN-win day at the races that lasted from 11 am until midnight! What a marathon!
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Sunday February 11
In spite of how great the rest of the week had been today was one of THE BEST days of the winter. I think perhaps part of why I say this is because my buddy Keith had finally arrived in the 21st century by joining xpressbet so now he can play the races without actually going to the track. So he'd begun to follow my picks and today he was actually going to play them. It's worth noting that I ALLOW him to play my picks without charging him a subscription and that's particularly noteworthy as the very first time we went to the races together he said, very emphatically "You have to buy YOUR OWN Racing Form, you can't use mine!" Well, look who's the tuff guy now!
But what made the day even better is this.....I've written about this before but it's still so often true. When I handicap every day, especially here at Gulfstream, I can't tell you how many times I am at the track on Saturday playing multiple tracks and I have a big day. I am in the "glow" of that success and I play on Sunday and have a lack-luster day that takes some of that "glow" off the big day. I try to ignore that and look long term, but it's a fact. So I have often considered either not playing the next day or being ultra-conservative in my handicapping. And that's more the usual, though I don't think you'd find I have a significantly smaller number of selections or bet a significantly less amount of money most Sundays. So any way, Saturday morning I was up early and I handicapped the Sunday card before heading out. I consciously thought about being very sure of my selections and not taking any "chances" - stick to what you KNOW is a good bet. Right away I had a pick in the opener and then I had not one, not two, but not three races in a row where I was very disciplined and didn't like anyone well enough to invest. But in five of the next six races I liked someone and in two of them I liked my pick B-I-G time. Oh I'm going out on a limb here Webby! I decided to make the bets and just watch the replays as Kim was coming home this afternoon from visiting her parents, but I discovered my pick in the opener scratched, so I didn't have anything to watch until Race 5 anyway. Kim was about two and half hours out at post time so I decided I'd watch the first few bets run. In the fifth it was an allowance optional claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs with the first finish line and on the rail was You're To Blame from the Todd Pletcher camp. While you COULD hold it against him for the two most recent losses in allowance company like this, as I wrote, "Not so fast my friend!" After a steady diet of stakes events - finishing a good second behind West Coast last spring who then won the Grade 1 Travers next time out - he ran in an allowance at Tampa. He was second again, but the key was he nosed out Mo Town for the place and that colt exited to win an allowance and then took down the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby! On the shelf after that Tampa try You're To Blame came back here in December and was third to Jay's Way....and that one came right back to win the Sunshine Millions Classic! Maybe at another track I'd pass on this one, but it's Gulfstream, it's Todd Pletcher. Right to the front and never looked back, the easiest kind of winner!
I missed in the 6th with a Pletcher debut runner in a turf sprint (well, let's be fair, he can't possibly win EVERY 3yo maiden race he enters!) Then I was a sharp third with the upset of the day when Auldwood Lane was 7/1. The seventh was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth - again the short stretch and first finish line. Keith had called about some things about the online site and we talked about the picks for today. He specifically asked about this one as I liked Hedge Fund and was making him my BET of the Day, investing $30 to win. Keith asked what kind of odds we'd get and I said that I thought we might be lucky enough to get 6/5 because he was coming off a layoff and some might not like that. But I continued to tell him that I know of at least three times I've been in the paddock and they come on the broadcast and SHOW ON THE BIG SCREEN that Todd Pletcher layoff runners of 180 days or more, on the dirt, at Gulfstream win at better than 40%. And, I told Keith, STILL the crowd won't bet them. We both chuckled and I was hopeful we'd get better than even money. So I had the live feed playing on the big TV and as I looked at the early odds I did not see ANY runner with short odds. Wait, is this the right race? I don't think my horse is the number 7 who's favored. NO, Hedge Fund is the 5 horse and he's 3/1. Am I that far off? No, I think I'm that right on! I'm about to be paid. As they approached the gate he took late money and was the 9/5 favorite. Eclipse Award winning jockey Jose Ortiz - who rarely rides for Pletcher - took him right to the front, and I smiled. As they moved down the backstretch his odds changed....didn't drop, they actually went up. Are you serious? He coasted to the wire and when the numbers came up.....
SERIOUSLY? With my $30 win bet I was cashing for nearly $100 and regardless of what happens the rest of the day my two winners have propelled me to a profit of well over $30! Just amazing. I passed the 9th and it was at about this time Kim and I headed out to get a bite to eat. I knew I'd miss watching the last two bets of the day live, but (a) my plan originally had been to watch the replays and (b) I was a guaranteed winner already, and a big winner.....already delighted with the way Sunday had turned out! When we got back home I opened up the replays. In the tenth it was a 2nd level allowance on the turf going an extended nine furlongs. Lucullan was my pick and I thought he was an "upset" pick over the program favorite Black Sea. The latter was from the Chad Brown barn and Javier Castellano has won with 8-of-16 mounts for him. ALL Brown horses on the turf are tough and this was a Euro import as well. BUT, since coming over here he had a single win, in a photo finish, over an allowance field that frankly did not impress. Lucullan on the other hand was from top trainer Kiaran McLaughlin who's the North American trainer for all of the powerful international Shadwell Stable runners. He had shown huge potential last season as a 3yo when just missing in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Belmont. I like that he'd progressed in each start on the grass and he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day. He stalked in mid pack dropped back to get a clear path then circled wide into the lane and closed with a burst to draw off impressively.
My THIRD win of the day! I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for almost $25 - all clear profit at this point! The last selection of the day was another big bet. I'd seen Ring Weekend win graded stakes as a three-year-old, today he was kicking off his seven-year-old season AND he'd not been to the winner's circle since winning the Grade 2 Seabiscuit in November 2016! Still....eleven of the twelve races in his past performances were stakes and ten of those graded. Only once was he beaten more than 4 3/4 lengths and that had excuses. He's been working sensationally, including a blistering bullet move in :59.2. And finally, of the 155 combined races run by the nine facing him today, ONE would challenge his last THREE numbers. And that one number had been earned in August 2016 with a fifth place finish - unreliable number! As I handicapped the race I made him a "prime time" bet. And at that moment I'd listed Hedge Fund as a $20 win bet. I paused and thought, "Do you like them equally? I know it's Sunday racing, but if you truly think Hedge Fund is a "bet of the day" and you're willing to go $20 on Ring Weekend, you need to up the bet on Hedge Fund." And so I did, making him a $30 play and we all now know how that turned out! (I really did have that thought by the way!) He was near the back as they hit the far turn and then made his move. He was going to be at least five wide when another closer tried to split horses inside of him and that one floated him at least into the seven path. But Ring Weekend exerted his back class and blew by to score going away. No you'd figure, even with his lack of victories of late, that a former Grade 1 winner in an allowance race would be the short-priced favorite.....oh think again wise one.....
OH MY! An astounding payoff of $6.60 led to a payout of nearly $70 for me and suddenly I've had a H-U-G-E day. I chuckled to myself thinking that I'd spent four or five or six hours handicapping for Saturday; had spent over twelve hours "at the races" and had piled up six wins, but lost a little bit. Then today I spend less than an hour handicapping....have only six bets.....and I make a profit of over $120 for the day! What a day, what a week!
Wednesday February 7
When I sat down Tuesday morning with my coffee and began the handicapping for the week I was determined to live up to my promise to myself to head out to the races at least once during the week as well as to be there for the big Saturday of racing. But I was also very conscious of "letting the race come to me" and not trying to "make a race" be the bet. Through the first few races I didn't think that this Wednesday card would be "the one" that would let me make the drive to Hallandale Beach, but by the time I was done I DID think I had a good chance to see a few winners live. None that were "BET of the Day" worthy but solid enough to enjoy a few hours in the warm Florida winter sunshine. I didn't have a bet in the opener, but I did have a pick. I was trying to time my arrival to be at the track between the first and second but the trip was so smooth I arrived five minutes before post time and I considered playing my top choice because all three of the Gulfstream analysts had the same runner on top. We can't ALL be wrong, can we? But then I said, "be calm, wait and watch....you didn't like it enough to make it a bet, so don't bet it." Oh so prophetic! The runner was close, but second - would have been a loss. In the second I had a play, but not at first glance. Post position 2 belonged to Put Em Up, the 2/1 program favorite. But he'd won last time out in the cheapest of maiden claimers. I don't like to play last out maiden winners generally, and most especially maiden claimers, especially bottom-level maiden claimers. His speed figure had been a pokey 42 - that's not going to win many races. But then I scanned his rivals in this non-winners of two lifetime sprint.....they had records of 1-for-24, 1-for-21, 1-for-17, 1-for-17, 1-for-28, and 1-for-13 (with a rider that was 2-for-25). Could there be a weaker field? I think not. I made him the bet under jockey Tyler Gafflione. Right to the front and the rest of the field of "no, no, I don't want to win, you go ahead runners" just let him coast to the wire. Put Em Up had been 1/9 early on, then 1/5 but his odds kept floating up and at post time he was an inflated 6/5. My double investment netted me nearly $25 on the first bet of the week! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
Race 3 was a maiden claimer and it was even more undecipherable than the first race; but again I considered betting because several of the "pros" liked my pick. But again I resisted...and again I was prophetically correct as the pick ran third. Under typical circumstances I'd probably have passed the fourth as well, but the DRF's Mike Welsch made Caloric his "BEST of the Day." I knew this runner because last time out he'd won for me as a "Pletcher Plunger" - dropping out of MSW company to a maiden claimer and won for fun. But he'd been claimed away. And that was something I thought was a positive in this circumstance because new trainer Jason Servis was winning 40% of his first off the claim runners. Add that to Welsch's "best" angle and I decided I'd go along for the ride. He pressed the pace through the turn, swung out three wide to take over but was immediately challenged by my second choice, an older, multiple winner (albeit vs. cheaper). But jockey Irad Ortiz, well known for his patience, had plenty left and he let Caloric loose as he ran to the wire first, and suddenly I'm two-for-two! Oh what a good way to start the week!
The next race was a turf event and I went with a price play. Six-to-one leaving the gate my horse pressed the issue into the far turn and I thought, hey - maybe.....but then he stopped like he was shot to finish 9th. Well, you can't reasonably expect to win EVERY race :) Next up was another double investment choice for me, Carbon Data on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs vs. $16K non-winners of three lifetime. I didn't want to invest more because this guy had just won a $30K nw2L. So I had mixed feelings.....on the upside, out of a 2-lifetime into a 3-lifetime spot he WOULD fit better dropping in class, but if you'd just won for $30K wouldn't you want to maybe try OPEN runners for say $20K? Why "give" the horse away? But as I wrote in my analysis, I could as easily see him winning for fun as losing....he was trained by top North American turf conditioner Chad Brown and had Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano in the irons. So, ok, I'm on board. But while I was in the paddock watching the three analysts talk about the race they noted that ALL THREE of them liked this guy on top and TWO of them had singled him in the multi-race wagers. AND he was being played strongly not only to win but in all the multi-race payouts. I thought about it and then made the big decision - I'm upping the bet! The gates sprung open and Castellano took him right to the front. Never, ever challenged and he walked with it by daylight!
Wednesday February 7 Highlights
Thursday February 8
When I handicapped the Thursday card and finished I thought to myself, "....this is just one of "those" cards" where you have some picks, you win a couple and you grind away again tomorrow...." From the ten race card I had four selections, three were a double investment and the "best bet" was simply a triple investment. I watched the live feed from home as I worked on the computer and then waited for Kim to come home. In the opener my horse had scratched, so I wasn't playing. But as I listened to the three analysts they all talked about what a significant scratch this was and how it simply left my second choice, Sun of Tara, as CLEARLY the one to beat. I looked at the betting pools and probable payoffs for the early double and thought, "....I think they are right.....he IS the one to beat..." and so I didn't stick with the double investment, but I did make the bet. He was held snugly by Jose Ortiz to the turn, then glided three wide for clear run and accelerated by to win decisively. WOW, what a smart guy I am to make this decision!
The second race had initially been a PASS race at first glance when I first saw the favorite in post position one, I thought to myself, "This would have to be a REALLY soft maiden field for this guy to win" - and it could not have been much softer! Transistor had earned a field best 72 Beyer last time out and THAT figure would win for fun, but it was also way out of line with his most recent figures. So here was my thinking......IF you toss that number and he ran back to one of the three previous numbers (59-50-53) the best LIFETIME number his rivals had earned were 33-39-45-49-52. So the lone threat appeared to be the outside drawn runner who had one time earned a 52. But he came from a barn winning at a meager 6% - yes SIX - and he'd been beaten by Transistor earlier in the meet, decisively! I'm in for double the bet. He had Javier Castellano on today and I've said many times that over the last two years he just isn't riding like he was when he was the best jockey down here for several years running. But to be fair, in the last month he seems to have "returned to form." But here he had Transistor off a step slowly, then was in tight, so he was taken back. He made a move approaching the turn on the rail but was checked out of it....really? But I could see Castellano still had not asked for his best. Waited, waited, then a seam opened, he burst through and was first to the wire. Ok, you get my kudos Mr. Castellano!
Transistor was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite so I wasn't making much profit, but a win is a win! No bet in the third, fourth, or fifth. The sixth was my "best" of the day, Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown. On October 17 he was coming off a long layoff and making his first start for Brown when a sharp second with a big 85 speed figure. So when he showed up here on December 15 he was my top choice. He tracked the leaders, moved to the front, but was nailed by a longshot on the wire. Still, he improved his speed figure to an 88. Third off the shelf, improving figures, he's the bet. It was made more interesting that Mr. Brown had another in here, a highly regarded first time starter that was preferred by at least one of the GP analysts. But I stuck to my guns. I was watching the live feed on our "new" 55" HD television in the newly-designed family room as Johnny Velazquez set him down into the stretch to make the sprint to the wire (he's #1). This time he cleared the field and ran on confidently to victory!
My double investment got me back a little under $20 but for the day, a perfect 4-for-4 and I'd made a tidy little profit! WHAT A DAY!
Friday February 9
I had six selections today and I was handicapping the races for the all-out attack on Saturday when I suddenly realized I'd missed the first race, and I had a bet! But, for one of the very few times of the meet I'd gone against a Todd Pletcher horse, one that had won for me last time at a huge $15 payoff, and went with another. My pick ran second to....that's right, the Pletcher colt who paid over $10. At least I didn't lose :) In the third I was "right" but didn't win. Multiple graded stakes sprinter Mind Your Biscuits was running in an allowance sprint and using it as a prep for defense of his title in the Group 2 $2 Million Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup Night (which will be run the morning of the Florida Derby!). He'd done this same thing last year and did NOT win, I didn't think he'd be all out today so I went with Todd Pletcher's unbeaten One Liner. He ran third, but Mind Your Biscuits did NOT win, second behind a 16/1 upset winner. I took some satisfaction there. In the fifth I really, REALLY liked Salute With Honor. Trained by Mark Casse this guy was coming off a layoff, but he'd twice run HUGE off a break and he had a best-of-28 bullet to reinforce my feeling that he'd run big today. He'd been third to Pletcher's One Liner and second in a Tampa stakes last year. Today he dropped out of OPEN stakes and OPEN allowance to run in an Allowance-Optional Claimer for state-breds which allowed runners in for the cheap $12.5K price tag. If he was ready he'd win by daylight. He was away slowly and in a six furlong sprint that's not the ideal situation. He was still near the back as the field hit the far turn, but he began to hit is stride. Still fourth at the furlong marker, but he was FLYING up the rail and cleared the field at the 16th pole and drew off easily. The best news.....he was nearly 5/2 on the board!
The prime time investment meant I'd cash for almost $70 and despite this being the LONE WINNER on the day for me, I made a profit of almost $10. Three profitable days in a row and I'm clicking at a nice win percentage for the week heading into the big day.
Saturday February 10: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
Click HERE to read the journals about the big TEN-win day at the races that lasted from 11 am until midnight! What a marathon!
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Part 1
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Part 2
In spite of how great the rest of the week had been today was one of THE BEST days of the winter. I think perhaps part of why I say this is because my buddy Keith had finally arrived in the 21st century by joining xpressbet so now he can play the races without actually going to the track. So he'd begun to follow my picks and today he was actually going to play them. It's worth noting that I ALLOW him to play my picks without charging him a subscription and that's particularly noteworthy as the very first time we went to the races together he said, very emphatically "You have to buy YOUR OWN Racing Form, you can't use mine!" Well, look who's the tuff guy now!
But what made the day even better is this.....I've written about this before but it's still so often true. When I handicap every day, especially here at Gulfstream, I can't tell you how many times I am at the track on Saturday playing multiple tracks and I have a big day. I am in the "glow" of that success and I play on Sunday and have a lack-luster day that takes some of that "glow" off the big day. I try to ignore that and look long term, but it's a fact. So I have often considered either not playing the next day or being ultra-conservative in my handicapping. And that's more the usual, though I don't think you'd find I have a significantly smaller number of selections or bet a significantly less amount of money most Sundays. So any way, Saturday morning I was up early and I handicapped the Sunday card before heading out. I consciously thought about being very sure of my selections and not taking any "chances" - stick to what you KNOW is a good bet. Right away I had a pick in the opener and then I had not one, not two, but not three races in a row where I was very disciplined and didn't like anyone well enough to invest. But in five of the next six races I liked someone and in two of them I liked my pick B-I-G time. Oh I'm going out on a limb here Webby! I decided to make the bets and just watch the replays as Kim was coming home this afternoon from visiting her parents, but I discovered my pick in the opener scratched, so I didn't have anything to watch until Race 5 anyway. Kim was about two and half hours out at post time so I decided I'd watch the first few bets run. In the fifth it was an allowance optional claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs with the first finish line and on the rail was You're To Blame from the Todd Pletcher camp. While you COULD hold it against him for the two most recent losses in allowance company like this, as I wrote, "Not so fast my friend!" After a steady diet of stakes events - finishing a good second behind West Coast last spring who then won the Grade 1 Travers next time out - he ran in an allowance at Tampa. He was second again, but the key was he nosed out Mo Town for the place and that colt exited to win an allowance and then took down the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby! On the shelf after that Tampa try You're To Blame came back here in December and was third to Jay's Way....and that one came right back to win the Sunshine Millions Classic! Maybe at another track I'd pass on this one, but it's Gulfstream, it's Todd Pletcher. Right to the front and never looked back, the easiest kind of winner!
I missed in the 6th with a Pletcher debut runner in a turf sprint (well, let's be fair, he can't possibly win EVERY 3yo maiden race he enters!) Then I was a sharp third with the upset of the day when Auldwood Lane was 7/1. The seventh was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth - again the short stretch and first finish line. Keith had called about some things about the online site and we talked about the picks for today. He specifically asked about this one as I liked Hedge Fund and was making him my BET of the Day, investing $30 to win. Keith asked what kind of odds we'd get and I said that I thought we might be lucky enough to get 6/5 because he was coming off a layoff and some might not like that. But I continued to tell him that I know of at least three times I've been in the paddock and they come on the broadcast and SHOW ON THE BIG SCREEN that Todd Pletcher layoff runners of 180 days or more, on the dirt, at Gulfstream win at better than 40%. And, I told Keith, STILL the crowd won't bet them. We both chuckled and I was hopeful we'd get better than even money. So I had the live feed playing on the big TV and as I looked at the early odds I did not see ANY runner with short odds. Wait, is this the right race? I don't think my horse is the number 7 who's favored. NO, Hedge Fund is the 5 horse and he's 3/1. Am I that far off? No, I think I'm that right on! I'm about to be paid. As they approached the gate he took late money and was the 9/5 favorite. Eclipse Award winning jockey Jose Ortiz - who rarely rides for Pletcher - took him right to the front, and I smiled. As they moved down the backstretch his odds changed....didn't drop, they actually went up. Are you serious? He coasted to the wire and when the numbers came up.....
SERIOUSLY? With my $30 win bet I was cashing for nearly $100 and regardless of what happens the rest of the day my two winners have propelled me to a profit of well over $30! Just amazing. I passed the 9th and it was at about this time Kim and I headed out to get a bite to eat. I knew I'd miss watching the last two bets of the day live, but (a) my plan originally had been to watch the replays and (b) I was a guaranteed winner already, and a big winner.....already delighted with the way Sunday had turned out! When we got back home I opened up the replays. In the tenth it was a 2nd level allowance on the turf going an extended nine furlongs. Lucullan was my pick and I thought he was an "upset" pick over the program favorite Black Sea. The latter was from the Chad Brown barn and Javier Castellano has won with 8-of-16 mounts for him. ALL Brown horses on the turf are tough and this was a Euro import as well. BUT, since coming over here he had a single win, in a photo finish, over an allowance field that frankly did not impress. Lucullan on the other hand was from top trainer Kiaran McLaughlin who's the North American trainer for all of the powerful international Shadwell Stable runners. He had shown huge potential last season as a 3yo when just missing in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Belmont. I like that he'd progressed in each start on the grass and he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day. He stalked in mid pack dropped back to get a clear path then circled wide into the lane and closed with a burst to draw off impressively.
My THIRD win of the day! I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for almost $25 - all clear profit at this point! The last selection of the day was another big bet. I'd seen Ring Weekend win graded stakes as a three-year-old, today he was kicking off his seven-year-old season AND he'd not been to the winner's circle since winning the Grade 2 Seabiscuit in November 2016! Still....eleven of the twelve races in his past performances were stakes and ten of those graded. Only once was he beaten more than 4 3/4 lengths and that had excuses. He's been working sensationally, including a blistering bullet move in :59.2. And finally, of the 155 combined races run by the nine facing him today, ONE would challenge his last THREE numbers. And that one number had been earned in August 2016 with a fifth place finish - unreliable number! As I handicapped the race I made him a "prime time" bet. And at that moment I'd listed Hedge Fund as a $20 win bet. I paused and thought, "Do you like them equally? I know it's Sunday racing, but if you truly think Hedge Fund is a "bet of the day" and you're willing to go $20 on Ring Weekend, you need to up the bet on Hedge Fund." And so I did, making him a $30 play and we all now know how that turned out! (I really did have that thought by the way!) He was near the back as they hit the far turn and then made his move. He was going to be at least five wide when another closer tried to split horses inside of him and that one floated him at least into the seven path. But Ring Weekend exerted his back class and blew by to score going away. No you'd figure, even with his lack of victories of late, that a former Grade 1 winner in an allowance race would be the short-priced favorite.....oh think again wise one.....
OH MY! An astounding payoff of $6.60 led to a payout of nearly $70 for me and suddenly I've had a H-U-G-E day. I chuckled to myself thinking that I'd spent four or five or six hours handicapping for Saturday; had spent over twelve hours "at the races" and had piled up six wins, but lost a little bit. Then today I spend less than an hour handicapping....have only six bets.....and I make a profit of over $120 for the day! What a day, what a week!
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