Monday, February 19, 2018

Risen Star Stakes / Winter Carnival Day

Saturday February 17

I had spent multiple hours handicapping on Thursday and Friday and arrived at Gulfstream about 11:30 with nearly forty selections on my print-out, ready for a big day of racing!  The day started off at a leisurely pace, but became frenetic by the time we hit mid-afternoon as not only was I betting and watching races from two, three, and sometimes four tracks nearly simultaneously but I was also "spending the day virtually" at the races with both my buddy Keith in Illinois and my oldest son Jeff in Kansas as they both were playing online and texting and/or calling throughout the afternoon.  It made for a great day of racing let me tell you!  The first four plays were all from Gulfstream so I had nearly half an hour between races and didn't hit one until the third race.  It was the Lady Bird Stakes going seven furlongs.  The prohibitive program favorite was invader Chella.  She'd won FIVE of seven tries at this difficult seven furlong distance which that alone gave her an edge.  But also, despite being based at "minor league" Fort Erie she'd shipped out to Delaware, Mountaineer, the Fair Grounds, and Tampa to win multiple races.  She was listed as the even money favorite.  The locals were enamored by lightly raced Areclor on the rail and Starship Reina who looked to be the speed of the race under Paco Lopez.  The late money came on the former under top jockey Luis Saez.  As Starship Reina led them into the turn Chella closed the gap but looked to be under heavy urging from her rider while the leader was traveling comfortably, didn't look good for me.  But they the competitiveness of the program favorite kicked in and a stretch-long duel was on.  In the final two hundred chards my choice edged clear and was safely home before Saez had his fast closing filly get into action.  My first win of the day!

And the best part was with all the late betting on the local horse Chella had floated all the way up to $6.80 on her payout allowing me to cash for nearly $35 and suddenly I was ahead for the day!  Over the span of the next four race selections and an hour on the clock my choice chased the loose-on-the-lead front runner in each instance and came up short - 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd - as all but one of those winners were price plays.  So I felt like I was "owed" a front end victory when I had Beach Waltz listed as my top choice on the rail in the Mrs. President's Stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Gulfstream.  Eclipse Award winning rider Jose Ortiz was on board and I was certain he'd secure the front and coast all the way around the course, so much so that I upped the bet from a double to a triple investment!  But right away there was pace pressure and a wider-drawn stretch out runner was insistent on the front and cut Beach Waltz off.  Ortiz had to take hold of his filly and she was shuffled back three positions into fourth.  But here was why he won the best jockey of the year award.  Rather than force the issue and try to duel on the front he got his mount settled and tracked the leader through the turn.  Once they turned for home he got her clear and set sail for the wire.  He opened up at the furlong pole and was clear, holding off the late runners for my second win on the local card.

I was cashing for nearly $40 thanks to my added investment!  The first of my scratches wiped out my next bet at Aqueduct, which led to a humorous exchange between Keith and I as he asked if there were any more scratches in New York.  I replied he could figure this out on his xpressbet account.  Then he asked if there were any more bets in New York, and I replied - belatedly as I had three races running simultaneously - that they were all listed on my selection sheet.  Finally he called, during a race so I called him back and discovered that he wanted to know if there was another bet in THAT specific race.....ha ha ha, as I told him it would have been a lot simpler if he were at the races LIVE with me, and he replied that this day was coming - this is his last full year of teaching before he joins Kim and I in retirement (it's her last year as well).  I was a late running third at Gulfstream before it was time for the first of the Laurel stakes races on the Winter Carnival card.  The John B. Campbell card was a nine furlong event and the favorite, Afleet Willy not only looked to be clearly the best and fastest horse, but the LONE SPEED of the race.  He was being hammered in the early betting and there were two scratches, so I decided like the Chella race to up the bet.  As they came onto the track for the post parade it looked like the reception on the simulcast screen was not very good, but then I could tell it wasn't that, it was snow blowing across the camera and the wind looked like it was very intense.  Laurel does NOT look like a destination for a weekend racing adventure today, but it's where I'll meet my good buddy Jim Anderson in about a month.  'Willy went right to the front but was being hounded by the 2/1 second choice all the way to the far turn.  I could tell, having watched a few races in my day :) that while the rival was being hard pressed to keep up Afleet Willy's jockey was sitting chilly.  As they entered the turn they'd had enough of that one and easily opened up on him.  Clear into the lane he looked long gone.  Inside the final sixteenth either the nine furlong distance or the early pace pressure appeared to being wearing on Willy as the field came closing in, but they were too late, and I'd won again - cashing for close to another forty dollars!

The Laurel race was no longer official than they were hitting the top of the stretch in Hot Springs, Arkansas where I liked Olivia's Uncle in their second race.  When I'd cashed my initial winning tickets I was $1 short of rounding it up to $50 so one of my favorite tellers, Karen - of the twins Kimberly and Karen - watched me take a dollar out of my wallet and said I'd have to pay myself back later.  So when I cashed this set of tickets I showed her that I was paying myself back, and we shared a chuckle....just another fun anecdote from a day at the races!

Next up was the Miracle Wood Stakes from Laurel and by now the snow was REALLY coming down, so much so you couldn't hardly see the runners on the far turn.  Still Having Fun and Wentz had nearly identical Beyers and the latter was coming off a maiden wire-to-wire win while 'Fun was exiting a stakes race.  The additional ground looked ideal as they were stretching to seven furlongs today.  As the field turned for home Still Having Fun was in fourth and the top three floated very wide into the lane.  The rider of 'Fun was smart and ducked inside while the others dueled down the middle of the track and got my top choice up in time.

Another triple investment that I would cash for an even thirty buckaroos!  After missing on the next two plays I went through a strong set of selections where I cashed on five of seven.  The first came in the first of the seven stakes on the Fair Grounds card, the Colonel Power Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf.  While I thought there was legitimate concern for the favorite Holding Gold being best, I also thought that if you were willing to be a little creative in your filtering of his past performances he was a standout.  If you filtered out everyone of the five furlong turf sprints - too short for him - you were left with one at six furlongs and four at 5 1/2 furlongs.   Those had earned him Beyer figures of 105, 107, 100, 89, and 96 which made him an obvious favorite.  Two of those had been wins and one was in a Grade 2 event AND he was exiting the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint where he'd been beaten only 1 3/4 length.  At the top of the stretch he looked to be out of it, but John Velazquez had him in high gear and inside the final sixteenth he came rolling by to run down the longshot leader and win going away.

Collected almost twenty dollars - I was watching on my phone from my seat in the grandstand at Gulfstream because they were loading into the gate for the Rough and Ready Stakes going a one-turn mile.  Aztec Sense had won three of his last four with the only loss coming in the $100K Claiming Crown Rapid Transit when bumped hard and immediately last of a bulky field of fourteen before rallying to be 4th, beaten only two lengths.  He looked to be the clear front runner and this just appeared so very similar to so many Monmouth races where Paco Lopez would be on the front coasting and give that "condescending look" under his shoulder to the other riders like, "Are you seriously thinking of trying to catch me" before he'd roll to victory.  I made him a prime time play.  JUST AS FORSEEN!  Right to the front, even gave "the look" and wired the field as much the best.  Everyone saw him as the likely winner, but still cashed for nearly $35 on my seventh winner of the day!

Risen Star Stakes Day Highlights
Part 1


I missed on two out of town races before I was back at Laurel where it was near-blizzard conditions....and I WANT to go here?  Of the multiple stakes here in Maryland, this three-year-old race at a one-turn mile, The Wide Country, looked the most wide open to me.  But I thought Enchanted Ghost looked best and good enough to play.  She'd won closing in a sprint, then won at a one-turn mile.  In her most recent she'd chased today's rival, Last True Love, in a six furlong sprint and had just missed catching her.  The added ground played to her favor today.  She stalked to the turn and blew by as easily best.  Only had the minimum but still cashed for nearly fifteen dollars.

Next on my sheet was the Grade 3 Mineshaft from the Fair Grounds for older horses.  When Jim and I had been in New Orleans I had picked Cedartown in the Louisiana Stakes as my upset special at 10/1 and that race served as the prep for this.  He won, but was bet down to 3/1 and I liked him even more today.  But when I got to Gulfstream he was scratched.  I had listed only one alternative but didn't like him to win so I thought I'd pass the race.  I decided to look on my Fair Grounds selection sheet to see who their handicapper liked and at first glance I dismissed his pick because I had seen The Player in the Louisiana Stakes and didn't think he could win that day or today.  But then I noted the comment, "....since adding blinkers been blazing in the mornings...."  Oh wait, really?  I looked it up and he had whistled through three morning work outs since the addition of the shades - a best of 75 bullet, a best of 103 work, and a blistering best of 33 in a wicked :59.3 for five furlongs.  Uh oh, he looks really dangerous, especially with Cedartown out.  I texted both Keith and Jeff that with the scratch I was going triple-times on The Player.  Right to the front and was never asked while drawing off by daylight!

Cashed for another $30 and change!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Right back in my next selection, an allowance at Aqueduct where I liked Preservationist.  He'd only been out three times and his last was a maiden win, but if he ran to this three similar Beyers - 92-92-94 - he was your winner.  He did win, but when they "ran" through the stretch, oh they were struggling home!  Still cashed for over $30 again on my tenth win of the day.  Next up was the BET of the DAY and it was from Tampa.  Originally I'd debated about playing Tampa at all because THEIR big day had been last weekend.  But the Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita all had late post times and I knew I wouldn't have a lot of bets from Laurel or Aqueduct, so if there were to be any early afternoon plays, other than Gulfstream they'd have to come from Tampa.  As I started scanning through I found a couple horses I liked, but then in their co-feature, there he was.....multiple graded stakes winning sprinter XY Jet!  When I had him in the Sunshine Millions - after I'd had him in the Gr 3 Mr. Prospector - I had read that the Millions was to be his final prep before heading to Dubai to run in the Group 2, $2 Million Golden Shaheen.  So what was he doing in this listed $100K spot?  I looked it up online and his trainer Jorge Navarro explained that his options were a series of six works to lead up to the Dubai race or he could get a race in him here, and this looked like a good spot on the calendar.  My only questions were - (a) how hard would they push in a $100K race with $2 Million on the line down the road, and (b) how would he handle the very sandy Tampa main track?  Still he looked TONS the best, even if he ran a "B" race.  As they were warming up I was watching in the Gulfstream Breezeway and a fellow race fan came up and said, "One to Nine - who'd bet a horse like that!"  We had a conversation about betting for value vs. betting for winners and when the odds clicked up to 1-5 I told him on THIS horse in THIS field, that was stealing.  As they approached the gate the fellow said, his odds will drop once they leave the gate, don't you think?  Probably I said.  Right to the front went XY Jet and ran them off their feet in a dazzling near-track record time.  And the best part....not only did his odds NOT go down.....they went UP to 2/5.

That's right, cashed for $70 on my big bet - how do you let that happen!  Thank you "value bettors!"  One of the best stories came with my next selection, the Al Stall Memorial at the Fair Grounds going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  When Jim and I were there Mom's On Strike had rallied late to win the prep for this and though she was unbeaten over the New Orleans grass I thought just maybe she'd peaked in that race so I went against her - she was the #6 horse.  Instead I went with #11 Susie Bee who had Beyers that compared nicely and was a 6x turf winner.  She could spring the upset.  But she trailed throughout and was wide turning for home, a non-factor.  As I watched on my phone I put it down and went through my tickets before heading downstairs to bet the next sequence of races and I started tossing the losing tickets.  $10 to WIN on the FG Race 6, on #11, yep, the Susie Bee ticket - toss.  Next, $10 to WIn on the FG Race 6, on #6.....wait, what?  That's supposed to be on RACE 7 - oh wait a minute.....race 6, number 6.....hold on a tic, THAT'S Mom's On Strike's number.  I AM A WINNER!  So for my $20 bet I cashed for $29 :)  What a day I'm having!


After missing on the next four it was time for the next-to-last live race at Gulfstream.  This was a main track event going a mile-and-a-sixteenth, so that meant (a) they'd start right in front of me, but they would use the first-line finish line, with the short stretch run.  The field looked pretty evenly matched and then I saw him.....what is Page McKenney doing in here?  He's a Maryland-based runner who rarely leaves the Mid-Atlantic circuit except for an occasional trip to Philadelphia to run in a Parx race.  In fact, he'd run in the Pennsylvania Derby Championship on Pennsylvania Derby Day last fall at Parx and had won as my upset pick at a big 6/1.  In this field he was CLEARLY the class of the field as he made his eight-year-old debut.  He'd raced thirty-five times with TWENTY wins and fifteen second place finish good for earnings of close to $2 Million.  His trainer had been struggling here (23/1-7-1) but I thought this was more than off-set by the fact that Page McKenney was a remarkable 10-for-14 at this 8 1/2 furlong distance.  And in spite of all this, he was a huge 6/1 in the program.  I remarked in my analysis that even at half that he would be stealing.  He sat a perfect trip under top NYRA rider Irad Ortiz, tracking three speedsters into the far turn.  When given his cue he responded immediately and accelerated right by them all to take command mid-way on the turn.  He was daylight in front turning for home and I knew it was all over - I'd won my thirteenth race as he was easily best.

And the very best part, he'd been a big 4/1 on the board, paying $10 - so I was cashing for $50!  WHAT a day, indeed.  Disappointed when I ran 2nd in the Fair Grounds Handicap on the turf when Mr. Misunderstood took his first career loss on the grass, finishing second at 6/5.  I really thought that Instilled Regard - who'd been my choice in the Fair Grounds' Lecomte, the prep for the Risen Star today would repeat.  But he ran flatly at 7/5 to be fourth when the winner was 20/1 and the runner-up 40/1!  The finale at Gulfstream was the Little Magician Stakes going 8 furlongs on the turf.  It looked the prime example of the adage, "turf winners win turf races" with ten-time turf winner Sinatra having that big edge.  Looked to be a lot of speed for him to rally into.  He was sent off at a generous 5/2 price and he came with his run on the outside, but was followed by a longshot runner.  The two of them dueled through the stretch while another closer came up the rail.....PHOTO FINISH!  Second, but I had thought it curious that the track announcer said as they hit the line, "Photo finish, too close to call but it looked like Montclair was drifting in" - immediately the INQUIRY sign went up and then they announced that the third place finisher was claiming foul against both the winner AND ME!  As I watched the replay you could see the "winner" lugged in from about the eight-path to the two-patch forcing Sinatra into the path of the third place finisher, but CLEARLY the winner was coming down as he didn't just bump me, he drove me all the way to the rail.  Then the announcement, "Ladies and gentlemen, the stewards have made a disqualification...."  YES!  I've got my fourteenth and final winner on the day and it's worth almost forty dollars!  Thank you stewards!

For the day I finished with nearly 40% wins and a profit of over $25.  While you can say there were several things that DID break in my favor allowing me to have the winning day - the switch to The Player in the Mineshaft, the "surprise" winner on the double ticket in the Al Stall, and the DQ "win" from second place finish, but I did win those.  If I'd have NOT lost this photo on Surprise Jubilee in the Gulfstream's eighth race, I'd have cashed for another $75 or more and had a $100 day.....oh so close......

Risen Star Stakes Day
Highlights - Part 2





Monday, February 12, 2018

Week of Feb 7 - 11


You just don't find many weeks that produce the kind of handicapping results I had this week.  It started out great and ended even better!  I continue to have remarkable, and unprecedented success with my handicapping at the Championship Meeting and I am oh-so-hopeful that it continues through the final six weeks.  But at this point, this winter and this week in particular have been just amazing.  Here's how it all played out.....

Wednesday February 7
When I sat down Tuesday morning with my coffee and began the handicapping for the week I was determined to live up to my promise to myself to head out to the races at least once during the week as well as to be there for the big Saturday of racing.  But I was also very conscious of "letting the race come to me" and not trying to "make a race" be the bet.  Through the first few races I didn't think that this Wednesday card would be "the one" that would let me make the drive to Hallandale Beach, but by the time I was done I DID think I had a good chance to see a few winners live.  None that were "BET of the Day" worthy but solid enough to enjoy a few hours in the warm Florida winter sunshine.  I didn't have a bet in the opener, but I did have a pick.   I was trying to time my arrival to be at the track between the first and second but the trip was so smooth I arrived five minutes before post time and I considered playing my top choice because all three of the Gulfstream analysts had the same runner on top.  We can't ALL be wrong, can we?  But then I said, "be calm, wait and watch....you didn't like it enough to make it a bet, so don't bet it."  Oh so prophetic!  The runner was close, but second - would have been a loss.  In the second I had a play, but not at first glance.  Post position 2 belonged to Put Em Up, the 2/1 program favorite.  But he'd won last time out in the cheapest of maiden claimers.  I don't like to play last out maiden winners generally, and most especially maiden claimers, especially bottom-level maiden claimers.  His speed figure had been a pokey 42 - that's not going to win many races.  But then I scanned his rivals in this non-winners of two lifetime sprint.....they had records of 1-for-24, 1-for-21, 1-for-17, 1-for-17, 1-for-28, and 1-for-13 (with a rider that was 2-for-25).  Could there be a weaker field?  I think not.  I made him the bet under jockey Tyler Gafflione.  Right to the front and the rest of the field of "no, no, I don't want to win, you go ahead runners" just let him coast to the wire.  Put Em Up had been 1/9 early on, then 1/5 but his odds kept floating up and at post time he was an inflated 6/5.  My double investment netted me nearly $25 on the first bet of the week!  WHOOOO HOOOOOO!

Race 3 was a maiden claimer and it was even more undecipherable than the first race; but again I considered betting because several of the "pros" liked my pick.  But again I resisted...and again I was prophetically correct as the pick ran third.  Under typical circumstances I'd probably have passed the fourth as well, but the DRF's Mike Welsch made Caloric his "BEST of the Day."  I knew this runner because last time out he'd won for me as a "Pletcher Plunger" - dropping out of MSW company to a maiden claimer and won for fun.  But he'd been claimed away.  And that was something I thought was a positive in this circumstance because new trainer Jason Servis was winning 40% of his first off the claim runners.  Add that to Welsch's "best" angle and I decided I'd go along for the ride.  He pressed the pace through the turn, swung out three wide to take over but was immediately challenged by my second choice, an older, multiple winner (albeit vs. cheaper).  But jockey Irad Ortiz, well known for his patience, had plenty left and he let Caloric loose as he ran to the wire first, and suddenly I'm two-for-two!  Oh what a good way to start the week!

The next race was a turf event and I went with a price play.  Six-to-one leaving the gate my horse pressed the issue into the far turn and I thought, hey - maybe.....but then he stopped like he was shot to finish 9th.  Well, you can't reasonably expect to win EVERY race :)  Next up was another double investment choice for me, Carbon Data on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs vs. $16K non-winners of three lifetime.  I didn't want to invest more because this guy had just won a $30K nw2L.  So I had mixed feelings.....on the upside, out of a 2-lifetime into a 3-lifetime spot he WOULD fit better dropping in class, but if you'd just won for $30K wouldn't you want to maybe try OPEN runners for say $20K?  Why "give" the horse away?  But as I wrote in my analysis, I could as easily see him winning for fun as losing....he was trained by top North American turf conditioner Chad Brown and had Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano in the irons.  So, ok, I'm on board.  But while I was in the paddock watching the three analysts talk about the race they noted that ALL THREE of them liked this guy on top and TWO of them had singled him in the multi-race wagers.  AND he was being played strongly not only to win but in all the multi-race payouts.  I thought about it and then made the big decision - I'm upping the bet!  The gates sprung open and Castellano took him right to the front.  Never, ever challenged and he walked with it by daylight!


Oh that's right my friends, I didn't just up the bet by adding an additional $5, I upped the bet from the original $10 by an additional $20!  WHAT A DAY!  I decided to head for home at this point, it was close to 3 pm and I wanted to miss the rush hour traffic.  I had three more selections, but none of them won....but thanks to the increased wager on Carbon Data I had not only had a big day percentage wise (38%) but also I had made a profit for the day.  And most importantly the winners had come while I was there watching live!

Wednesday February 7 Highlights


Thursday February 8
When I handicapped the Thursday card and finished I thought to myself, "....this is just one of "those" cards" where you have some picks, you win a couple and you grind away again tomorrow...."  From the ten race card I had four selections, three were a double investment and the "best bet" was simply a triple investment.  I watched the live feed from home as I worked on the computer and then waited for Kim to come home.  In the opener my horse had scratched, so I wasn't playing.  But as I listened to the three analysts they all talked about what a significant scratch this was and how it simply left my second choice, Sun of Tara, as CLEARLY the one to beat.  I looked at the betting pools and probable payoffs for the early double and thought, "....I think they are right.....he IS the one to beat..." and so I didn't stick with the double investment, but I did make the bet.  He was held snugly by Jose Ortiz to the turn, then glided three wide for clear run and accelerated by to win decisively.  WOW, what a smart guy I am to make this decision!

The second race had initially been a PASS race at first glance when I first saw the favorite in post position one, I thought to myself, "This would have to be a REALLY soft maiden field for this guy to win" - and it could not have been much softer!  Transistor had earned a field best 72 Beyer last time out and THAT figure would win for fun, but it was also way out of line with his most recent figures.  So here was my thinking......IF you toss that number and he ran back to one of the three previous numbers (59-50-53) the best LIFETIME number his rivals had earned were 33-39-45-49-52.  So the lone threat appeared to be the outside drawn runner who had one time earned a 52.  But he came from a barn winning at a meager 6% - yes SIX - and he'd been beaten by Transistor earlier in the meet, decisively!  I'm in for double the bet.  He had Javier Castellano on today and I've said many times that over the last two years he just isn't riding like he was when he was the best jockey down here for several years running.  But to be fair, in the last month he seems to have "returned to form."  But here he had Transistor off a step slowly, then was in tight, so he was taken back.  He made a move approaching the turn on the rail but was checked out of it....really?  But I could see Castellano still had not asked for his best.  Waited, waited, then a seam opened, he burst through and was first to the wire.  Ok, you get my kudos Mr. Castellano!

Transistor was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite so I wasn't making much profit, but a win is a win!  No bet in the third, fourth, or fifth.  The sixth was my "best" of the day, Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown.  On October 17 he was coming off a long layoff and making his first start for Brown when a sharp second with a big 85 speed figure.  So when he showed up here on December 15 he was my top choice.  He tracked the leaders, moved to the front, but was nailed by a longshot on the wire.  Still, he improved his speed figure to an 88.  Third off the shelf, improving figures, he's the bet.  It was made more interesting that Mr. Brown had another in here, a highly regarded first time starter that was preferred by at least one of the GP analysts.  But I stuck to my guns.  I was watching the live feed on our "new" 55" HD television in the newly-designed family room as Johnny Velazquez set him down into the stretch to make the sprint to the wire (he's #1).  This time he cleared the field and ran on confidently to victory!


Make it three wins in a row - wow.  One more race on the selection sheet - it was the very next race, a turf sprint for allowance runners.  I KNEW everyone would be all over Platinum Prince because he had the best speed figures.  But one thing I learned when I used to make my own speed figures is that the only TRUE figure is the one earned by the winner.  The rest of the field gets THEIR Beyer figure based on what the winner earned.  And while they are generally accurate, you always have to question big numbers earned when NOT in winning efforts.  Such was the case here as the last win for Platinum Prince had come in February 2016!  But he was two guys' top picks, one of those made him his BEST bet.  And hottie Acacia Courtney made her BEST in this race with my second choice who DID have the excuse of being fanned seven wide in a KEY race, but in comparing his races to that of my choice, Little Chesney, they looked very similar but her pick was a deep closer and in a bulky field going only five furlongs I thought he might get another wide trip and be compromised.  Little Chesney was listed at 9/2 and he was sitting at 5/2 as they loaded into the gate.  Then I saw the jockey for Platinum Prince, who was even money, hop off.  Then he undid the saddle and pulled the saddle cloth off.  BOOOOOO - he was scratched and now all the money went on Little Chesney.  He was confidently placed just off two dueling leaders through the turn, then swung out into the clear and ran away to the wire - the closer, never a factor.

My double investment got me back a little under $20 but for the day, a perfect 4-for-4 and I'd made a tidy little profit!  WHAT A DAY!

Friday February 9
I had six selections today and I was handicapping the races for the all-out attack on Saturday when I suddenly realized I'd missed the first race, and I had a bet!  But, for one of the very few times of the meet I'd gone against a Todd Pletcher horse, one that had won for me last time at a huge $15 payoff, and went with another.  My pick ran second to....that's right, the Pletcher colt who paid over $10.  At least I didn't lose :)  In the third I was "right" but didn't win.  Multiple graded stakes sprinter Mind Your Biscuits was running in an allowance sprint and using it as a prep for defense of his title in the Group 2 $2 Million Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup Night (which will be run the morning of the Florida Derby!).  He'd done this same thing last year and did NOT win, I didn't think he'd be all out today so I went with Todd Pletcher's unbeaten One Liner.  He ran third, but Mind Your Biscuits did NOT win, second behind a 16/1 upset winner.  I took some satisfaction there.  In the fifth I really, REALLY liked Salute With Honor.  Trained by Mark Casse this guy was coming off a layoff, but he'd twice run HUGE off a break and he had a best-of-28 bullet to reinforce my feeling that he'd run big today.  He'd been third to Pletcher's One Liner and second in a Tampa stakes last year.  Today he dropped out of OPEN stakes and OPEN allowance to run in an Allowance-Optional Claimer for state-breds which allowed runners in for the cheap $12.5K price tag.  If he was ready he'd win by daylight.  He was away slowly and in a six furlong sprint that's not the ideal situation.  He was still near the back as the field hit the far turn, but he began to hit is stride.  Still fourth at the furlong marker, but he was FLYING up the rail and cleared the field at the 16th pole and drew off easily.  The best news.....he was nearly 5/2 on the board!

The prime time investment meant I'd cash for almost $70 and despite this being the LONE WINNER on the day for me, I made a profit of almost $10.  Three profitable days in a row and I'm clicking at a nice win percentage for the week heading into the big day.

Saturday February 10:  Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
Click HERE to read the journals about the big TEN-win day at the races that lasted from 11 am until midnight!  What a marathon!

Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Part 1

Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Part 2

Sunday February 11
In spite of how great the rest of the week had been today was one of THE BEST days of the winter.  I think perhaps part of why I say this is because my buddy Keith had finally arrived in the 21st century by joining xpressbet so now he can play the races without actually going to the track.  So he'd begun to follow my picks and today he was actually going to play them.  It's worth noting that I ALLOW him to play my picks without charging him a subscription and that's particularly noteworthy as the very first time we went to the races together he said, very emphatically "You have to buy YOUR OWN Racing Form, you can't use mine!"  Well, look who's the tuff guy now!

But what made the day even better is this.....I've written about this before but it's still so often true.  When I handicap every day, especially here at Gulfstream, I can't tell you how many times I am at the track on Saturday playing multiple tracks and I have a big day.  I am in the "glow" of that success and I play on Sunday and have a lack-luster day that takes some of that "glow" off the big day.  I try to ignore that and look long term, but it's a fact.  So I have often considered either not playing the next day or being ultra-conservative in my handicapping.  And that's more the usual, though I don't think you'd find I have a significantly smaller number of selections or bet a significantly less amount of money most Sundays.  So any way, Saturday morning I was up early and I handicapped the Sunday card before heading out.  I consciously thought about being very sure of my selections and not taking any "chances" - stick to what you KNOW is a good bet.  Right away I had a pick in the opener and then I had not one, not two, but not three races in a row where I was very disciplined and didn't like anyone well enough to invest.  But in five of the next six races I liked someone and in two of them I liked my pick B-I-G time.  Oh I'm going out on a limb here Webby!  I decided to make the bets and just watch the replays as Kim was coming home this afternoon from visiting her parents, but I discovered my pick in the opener scratched, so I didn't have anything to watch until Race 5 anyway.  Kim was about two and half hours out at post time so I decided I'd watch the first few bets run.  In the fifth it was an allowance optional claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs with the first finish line and on the rail was You're To Blame from the Todd Pletcher camp.  While you COULD hold it against him for the two most recent losses in allowance company like this, as I wrote, "Not so fast my friend!"  After a steady diet of stakes events - finishing a good second behind West Coast last spring who then won the Grade 1 Travers next time out - he ran in an allowance at Tampa.  He was second again, but the key was he nosed out Mo Town for the place and that colt exited to win an allowance and then took down the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby!  On the shelf after that Tampa try You're To Blame came back here in December and was third to Jay's Way....and that one came right back to win the Sunshine Millions Classic!  Maybe at another track I'd pass on this one, but it's Gulfstream, it's Todd Pletcher.  Right to the front and never looked back, the easiest kind of winner!

I missed in the 6th with a Pletcher debut runner in a turf sprint (well, let's be fair, he can't possibly win EVERY 3yo maiden race he enters!)  Then I was a sharp third with the upset of the day when Auldwood Lane was 7/1.  The seventh was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth - again the short stretch and first finish line.  Keith had called about some things about the online site and we talked about the picks for today.  He specifically asked about this one as I liked Hedge Fund and was making him my BET of the Day, investing $30 to win.  Keith asked what kind of odds we'd get and I said that I thought we might be lucky enough to get 6/5 because he was coming off a layoff and some might not like that.  But I continued to tell him that I know of at least three times I've been in the paddock and they come on the broadcast and SHOW ON THE BIG SCREEN that Todd Pletcher layoff runners of 180 days or more, on the dirt, at Gulfstream win at better than 40%.  And, I told Keith, STILL the crowd won't bet them.  We both chuckled and I was hopeful we'd get better than even money.  So I had the live feed playing on the big TV and as I looked at the early odds I did not see ANY runner with short odds.  Wait, is this the right race?  I don't think my horse is the number 7 who's favored.  NO, Hedge Fund is the 5 horse and he's 3/1.  Am I that far off?  No, I think I'm that right on!  I'm about to be paid.  As they approached the gate he took late money and was the 9/5 favorite.  Eclipse Award winning jockey Jose Ortiz - who rarely rides for Pletcher - took him right to the front, and I smiled.  As they moved down the backstretch his odds changed....didn't drop, they actually went up.  Are you serious?  He coasted to the wire and when the numbers came up.....

SERIOUSLY?  With my $30 win bet I was cashing for nearly $100 and regardless of what happens the rest of the day my two winners have propelled me to a profit of well over $30!  Just amazing.  I passed the 9th and it was at about this time Kim and I headed out to get a bite to eat.  I knew I'd miss watching the last two bets of the day live, but (a) my plan originally had been to watch the replays and (b) I was a guaranteed winner already, and a big winner.....already delighted with the way Sunday had turned out!  When we got back home I opened up the replays.  In the tenth it was a 2nd level allowance on the turf going an extended nine furlongs.  Lucullan was my pick and I thought he was an "upset" pick over the program favorite Black Sea.  The latter was from the Chad Brown barn and Javier Castellano has won with 8-of-16 mounts for him.  ALL Brown horses on the turf are tough and this was a Euro import as well.  BUT, since coming over here he had a single win, in a photo finish, over an allowance field that frankly did not impress.  Lucullan on the other hand was from top trainer Kiaran McLaughlin who's the North American trainer for all of the powerful international Shadwell Stable runners.  He had shown huge potential last season as a 3yo when just missing in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Belmont.  I like that he'd progressed in each start on the grass and he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day.  He stalked in mid pack dropped back to get a clear path then circled wide into the lane and closed with a burst to draw off impressively. 

My THIRD win of the day!  I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for almost $25 - all clear profit at this point!  The last selection of the day was another big bet.  I'd seen Ring Weekend win graded stakes as a three-year-old, today he was kicking off his seven-year-old season AND he'd not been to the winner's circle since winning the Grade 2 Seabiscuit in November 2016!  Still....eleven of the twelve races in his past performances were stakes and ten of those graded.  Only once was he beaten more than 4 3/4 lengths and that had excuses.  He's been working sensationally, including a blistering bullet move in :59.2.  And finally, of the 155 combined races run by the nine facing him today, ONE would challenge his last THREE numbers.  And that one number had been earned in August 2016 with a fifth place finish - unreliable number!  As I handicapped the race I made him a "prime time" bet.  And at that moment I'd listed Hedge Fund as a $20 win bet.  I paused and thought, "Do you like them equally?  I know it's Sunday racing, but if you truly think Hedge Fund is a "bet of the day" and you're willing to go $20 on Ring Weekend, you need to up the bet on Hedge Fund."  And so I did, making him a $30 play and we all now know how that turned out!  (I really did have that thought by the way!)  He was near the back as they hit the far turn and then made his move.  He was going to be at least five wide when another closer tried to split horses inside of him and that one floated him at least into the seven path.  But Ring Weekend exerted his back class and blew by to score going away.  No you'd figure, even with his lack of victories of late, that a former Grade 1 winner in an allowance race would be the short-priced favorite.....oh think again wise one.....

OH MY!  An astounding payoff of $6.60 led to a payout of nearly $70 for me and suddenly I've had a H-U-G-E day.  I chuckled to myself thinking that I'd spent four or five or six hours handicapping for Saturday; had spent over twelve hours "at the races" and had piled up six wins, but lost a little bit.  Then today I spend less than an hour handicapping....have only six bets.....and I make a profit of over $120 for the day!  What a day, what a week!

Tampa Festival Preview Day

Saturday February 10

We've got tickets for Tampa Bay Derby Day on March 10th, so it was with great interest that I handicapped the Tampa card for Saturday, their preview day with prep races for that signature day.  I was also excited for the day to get to meet up with one of my favorite former students, Jennifer, who was in town from Colorado.  I arrived at Gulfstream a little before 11 am and shot an intro to today's video highlights chronicling the racing results from Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday then walked over to the Yard House where Jennifer met me.  After lunch we made our way to our seats in the grandstands and I explained a little about racing as we watched the second race.   We walked down to the paddock so she could see the horses for the third race and while we were standing along the rail in the paddock I was able to watch the first two plays of the day.  In the second at Tampa - which I watched on my smart phone through the xpressbet app - I had made an investment on Rafting.  This was a mile & forty yard allowance and my pick was stretching out off a decisive win at seven furlongs, fresh off the layoff.  I thought that today's race had been the intended target and the previous had only been a prep.  He was the 7/5 favorite at post time and in mid-pack as they hit the far turn.  He began improving but still had work to do at the top of the stretch.  But in the final sixteenth he surged to be up in time.  The triple investment started me off with a $36 payoff!  Moments later we looked up at the jumbo screen over the paddock which was playing the Aqueduct races and odds-on My Girl Annie romped under a handride.  She had been defeated six times in MSW company for trainer Chad Brown but today was dropping into a first time maiden claimer (a 43% win angle).  Right to the front under Paco Lopez and she rolled easily.  Another winner!

We headed inside and Jen made the first bet of her life on a horse race.  We liked the favorite, Fast Track Kathern.  The gates opened, the filly stumbled and the rider was unseated!  What are the odds!  It was so remarkable that I asked Jennifer to explain it on camera, you can see it in the highlights :)  We watched one more race, my pick scratched, and then she had to go.  But just before we left I heard a voice call out, "Hey Mark!  Where's the $1000 WIN BET window?"  I looked down and there was my good buddy Steve Leland!  He was there with his wife and their friends from Alaska.  So I walked Jen out and then met up with them.

We talked about racing and he bragged to his friends about what a gifted writer I was - blushing - and I told him I wanted HIS gig, he travels the world, for free, in exchange for writing for Portal Cruise magazine.  He told me that if I wrote up our next trip he'd send it to his boss and put in a good word!  Wouldn't THAT be a cool development!  As we were talking the horses were heading to the gate for the fifth at Gulfstream.  At this point Steve was saying how successful I'd been so far at Gulfstream and I told him I'd made A LOT of money on Todd Pletcher three-year-olds and that one was about to run.  He told me he'd seen my picks and he too had bet on All Systems Go here.  This colt was a $400K Keeneland sales grad and had top rider Luis Saez on board for his debut with sharp works indicating he was ready to roll.  He pressed the pricey leader into the turn and then the favorite came rolling up to him as they hit the top of the lane.  But Saez would have none of that and opened up on his mount.  All Systems Go was all that and more, long gone to win by daylight.  And best of all, the price.....

....that's right, paid over $9 and I was cashing for almost $70 on my triple investment.  WOW - who still hasn't gotten the memo on Pletcher three-year-olds!  The fourth at Aqueduct was not so much about making money but it looked like a pretty easy win pick.  Skyler's Scramjet looked to sit a perfect trip in this six furlong allowance sprint and then blow on by to win.  He was a perfect 2-for-2 at this distance, had won off the bench previously and had won 3-of-4 starts for his trainer.  He had to work as there was a loose-on-the-lead front runner that had a daylight advantage into the final furlong, but he wore him down in the shadow of the wire to score.

It was interesting, to me at least, the way the next two races played out.  At Tampa I had the 6/5 favorite who had shown early speed and been caught last time out going seven furlongs.  Today he turned back to six furlongs off that courageous second place finish to a well-meant Pletcher colt (who's I'd made a prime time play).  Wire to final jump, second in a photo.  Climbed the steps to my seat in time for Gulfstream's sixth race, a claiming event going 5 1/2 furlongs and I'd been against the favorite at first glance.  But his speed figures made him CLEARLY the fastest in here and he was 2-for-2 at this abbreviated distance.  Didn't hurt that his rivals had ALL been beaten multiple times at this cheap $6.25K price tag.  Be A Hero went right to the front, was clear turning for home and then the late runners came.....PHOTO FINISH!  But this time I hung on by the narrowest of noses!  Missed one photo, won the other :)

February 10th-Tampa Preview Day
Highlights - Part 1


Didn't cash a ticket until an hour later (four race selections), but when I next did cash it was with a "prime time" play.  Todd Pletcher trained 3yo maiden; John Velazquez riding for owner Michael Repole.  Does that sound familiar?  Oh yeah baby.....the eighth at Tampa - wait, did you say Tampa?  Right, with the big stakes races today in Oldsmar Johnny V was here to ride some of them and Pletcher had some runners so he'd brought along 3yo maiden Cilantro.  In her debut at Gulfstream she'd been 2/1 but had veered out at the start and had all kinds of traffic trouble but still finished second, over four lengths clear of the show filly.  Looked much, MUCH the best to me.  She tracked a longshot leader, came to her into the stretch and they battled for a sixteenth of a mile before Cilantro found another gear and drew off impressively.  Win number six!

I ran third in the first of the two Gulfstream stakes, the Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap.  I KNEW I'd lose....why?  Because Heart to Heart was running and EVERY time I do NOT bet him at Gulfstream he goes wire to wire.  When I do bet him, in all but one instance he doesn't fire.  He did it again today while my pick was a sharp third at 8/1 odds.  I had read online that one of the leading contenders for the Grade 3 Endevour Stakes at Tampa Bay was La Coronel.  I knew she was a talented filly and I thought she'd be my likely pick.  But when I handicapped the race I discovered I did NOT like her in here.  True, she'd won the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth in her last and today it was a Grade 3 race, BUT that had been in the fall and she was still running against strictly three-year-olds.  Today, off a layoff against older for the first time she just might be vulnerable.  And the pace scenario looked to be soft so she would not have a good opportunity to close from off the pace.  Conversely, Dona Bruja looked to get a dream trip just off the speed and she'd won the Grade 3 Mint Julep against older last year, then the Grade 3 Modesty at Arlington and had just missed in the Grade 1 Beverly D on Arlington Million Day.  With Eclipse Award winning jockey Jose Ortiz - also in town from Gulfstream for the big races - slated to ride, she was my pick.  The gates opened and literally five of them found themselves in front looking at each other wondering who was going to the lead.  I could swear I saw Ortiz look over at the others and then he shook the reins and Dona Bruja spurted clear.  Well this was unexpected I thought, but the pace was E-A-S-Y and I thought, this is one clever ride by the best jockey of 2017!  When the field closed the gap through the turn, including a rallying La Coronel, Ortiz had plenty left.  He gave the mare the "GO" sign and she accelerated to a daylight lead to win under wraps.  Not only another win, but another "PRIME TIME" investment winner!

Cashed for nearly $50 on my seventh of the day!  WHOOOO HOOOO!  Less than ten minutes later the field was walking into the gate at Santa Anita for their fourth, the first of their graded stakes, the Grade 2 Santa Maria going a mile and a sixteenth for older fillies and mares.  Last time out champion three-year-old filly and champion sprinter for 2017 Unique Bella had won the Grade 1 La Brea going seven furlongs.  But since then I'd read several times that her connections had nothing but route races in mind with the Breeders' Cup Distaff (or maybe the Classic) in mind for this year's campaign.  And I knew she could do it because she'd won two route races prepping for the Kentucky Oaks last spring before getting injured.  She'd worked sensationally since the La Brea win with not one but TWO sizzling bullet works in a blistering :59 flat.  Someone would have to be on a suicide mission to outgun her to the front.  No one did.  But to be honest when the opening quarter was a quick :23 and change and the half mile in :46 and change I thought she might have gone too fast too soon.  But Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith was sitting motionless as them flew around the far turn.  The gap narrowed, but when they hit the stretch Smith still didn't move while the other riders were riding for all they were worth....but Unique Bella drew off extending the margin with every stride.  Won by a pole while never being asked.  And the bet......$50 to WIN!

WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Another big bet winner!  It was another hour and four races later before I'd cash again, but it was a big one, the biggest of the day.  I ran 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in the races, three graded stakes and an allowance event before the field walked up to the gate for Tampa's featured Grade 3 Tampa Bay Turf Stakes featuring the 2017 Eclipse Award winner for top turf male, World Approval.  He was working on back-to-back-to-back Grade 1 wins while the rest of the field had appeared in nine graded events without a single win.  Of the 132 races run by his rivals one figure and only one would compete with the WORST figure earned by World Approval dating back to last May.  He was a two-time winner here at Tampa and it was hard to imagine him losing here, even knowing that (a) he was coming off the layoff from the Breeders' Cup Mile win and (b) he was prepping for the Group 1 $6 Million Dubai Turf in March.  The race unfolded in a curious manner as not one but two runners were intent on the lead and they whistled through early insane fractions to clear off by more than half a dozen.  As they hit the turn the field was inhaling them, led by World Approval, but he was anything but clear.  He opened up a daylight lead into the stretch, but then another closer began to make up serious ground and you got just the slightest bit of uneasiness as Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez had to get after World Approval to finish strongly, there would be no coasting to the wire today.  Considering the layoff and what they wanted to get out of the race it was probably best he WAS asked for some run.  But a win it was and I will be cashing for $120 on my BET of the Day investment when I next return to Gulfstream!

I missed on the last two live races and headed for home.  Kim was on the west coast of Florida visiting her parents so I wasn't in any hurry to be home, but tonight was Louisiana Premier Night at Delta Downs and I had several bets on their races which would keep me up until nearly midnight!

I had a second, a third, and two fourth place finishes to go along with two scratches sandwiched the lone winner on the card.  In the featured event, the Premier Championship Mobile Bay looked to build on his current three race winning streak.  He'd won the Louisiana Champions Day Classic last out in a life-or-death photo finish as my top choice and I had made him my top bet.  As I watched the pre-race analysis and the betting I decided that he'd move forward today and just laid over the field so I upped the bet.  He was away slowly so he couldn't get to the front like I'd expected.  But approaching the far turn he glided to a daylight lead.  But then the second choice came flying up the rail.  Mobile Bay drifted out to the middle of the track as they ran for home while the other horse was closing.  Tough to see from the angle but I think I've lost the lead at the 16th pole......Mobile Bay surges, PHOTO FINISH and the announcer initially called the other horse the winner, but then remarked it would take a photo to determine the winner.....


WHEW!  That was too close for comfort, but still Mobile Bay won and that makes TEN for the day from 27 selections for a 38% win rate to close out this long day of racing.....but a great day for sure!

February 10th-Tampa Preview Day
Highlights - Part 2

Monday, February 5, 2018

Holy Bull Day

February 3
The Road To The Florida Derby Begins!

We've begun to count down the days to the Florida Derby as the serious prep races for the Derby and the Oaks began today.  Fresh of a spectacular five-win outing on Pegasus Day I handicapped SEVEN tracks for today and headed out with all my tickets from last Saturday to proved the funds for today's investments.  So the first thing I did was cash out my tickets and place the first bet - I collected MULTIPLE $100 bills :)  I had a pick in the opener at Gulfstream, a non-winners of two lifetime turf route where Chad Brown was dropping Bracket Creep out of starter allowance company.  I thought he was likely NOT going to run big, but he just seemed to lay over the field and all three GP handicappers had him on top.  He stalked the pace to the far turn, then faded badly to eighth.  It was nearly an hour before my next bet, in the Aqueduct opener - my first day to play New York this winter because they'd had so many cancelled cards due to the weather.  Arbitrator went down as second best despite being the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.

In the Aqueduct second I doubled the bet on Surprise Wonder, a Todd Pletcher maiden.  He'd been second in an OPEN MSW, then third in a state-bred MSW and now was dropping in for a state-bred tag.  He was the co-favorite as they left the gate.  He couldn't keep pace with the other co-favorite and dropped back two or three lengths into a clear second spot.  On the turn he began to grind away at the leader who shortened stride at the 16th pole and Surprise Wonder went by to provide me with the first winning ticket of the day.

In the 4th at Gulfstream it was the first of the multiple graded stakes, the seven furlong Grade 3 Swale for 3yo colts.  I did NOT like the odds-on favorite Strike Power.  He'd whistled his debut when drilling MSW rivals with a blistering 102 Beyer.  BUT, that had come at 5 1/2 furlongs and he'd been loose on the easiest of leads.  Today he'd go first time vs. winners, into stakes company, stretch out to seven furlongs AND have pace pressure.  But he shot out of the gate and went unchallenged through a :22.4 soft opening quarter and an ok :45.4 half mile.  My late runner never picked up his feet, sixth at 9/2 odds.  Missed at Tampa when I had a similar scenario and Animauxselle was 4/1 tracking a 3/5 last out maiden winner.  Dueled through the lane, got his head in front with 100 yards to go only to have a deep closing longshot blow by to score, second.  Little Baltar was left at the gate at 5/2 in the fifth at Gulfstream, a claiming event on the turf.  Came running too late to be second.  In the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant there were two Chad Brown runners and everyone liked Data Dependent as did I.  Near the back throughout and sixth as the 7/5 favorite.  Back to Tampa where we had a claiming event which was a nw2Y - which means you can't have won two races since a certain date.  And in these kind of events you should prefer proven winners coming off a layoff or second off a layoff.  And the only one like that was Silly Factor.  Tracked the leaders and blew by under a hand ride to score easily.  Right back in Tampa's sixth we were on the turf and it was a Starter Allowance for $16K.  Jermyn Street had won back-to-back $16K events here and looked to get another ideal pressing trip right behind the speed.  But when the gates opened he was quickly three lengths clear on an easy lead.  As they hit the far turn the rider had slowed the pace to a pokey :49 and change half mile, but now he was being surrounded.  A 3/16th of a mile duel followed where he lost the lead turning for home but fought back doggedly to prevail in the final strides and I had ANOTHER winner!

Sandwiched between the two Tampa winners was my "Best of the Day" at Oaklawn Park.  I have to admit I was a bit skeptical about making this play because when I'd last played Oaklawn, from the Fair Grounds, I'd had only one winner.  It was a non-conditioned allowance racing going a mile and a sixteenth and I liked Shotgun Kowboy, a lot.  He'd been in nothing but stakes since winning two allowance races nearly a year ago and with a win, or in the money finish, he'd be racing's newest millionaire earner.  The "X" factor was Shut The Box.  He was coming off of two strong efforts at the Fair Grounds where he'd earned a 92 and 95 in stakes company.  WHY was he not dropping into an allowance in New Orleans?  And he'd been 2/1 program favorite in such an allowance there on Friday but scratched out to ship and run here?  That he'd suddenly become fast was worrisome to me as you could have claimed him for $40K out of a "beaten" event back in the spring.  'Kowboy went right to the front but 'Box hounded him every step of the way to the far turn.  It looked to me however that as they hit the turn my pick was running smoothly and well in hand while Shut the Box was having to be pushed to keep up.  The rider of Shotgun Kowboy looked under his shoulder as if to say, "C'ya!" and he accelerated.  The strides instantly lengthened and it was all over as he drew off well in had by open lengths to the wire.

Cashed for $42 on the "prime time" play!  I was still seeking my first win locally as they loaded into the gate for Gulfstream's eighth.  CERTAINLY here - a Maiden Special for 3yo and yes there was a Todd Pletcher colt, Dream Friend who was the even money favorite.  The only concern I had was that he had drawn the rail in a bulky field of nearly a dozen.  If John Velazquez got away cleanly I KNEW I had the winner.  Pletcher first timers are always fast and always well conditioned.  The only thing that is up in the air is the break.  The gates sprung open and in the first two jumps Dream Friend was clear!  Coasting on a daylight lead to the far turn, but then the stalkers came to him.  I KNEW Velazquez had been coasting through the second quarter and had plenty left, all he had to do was ask.....he did and nothing.  Like he was tied to the rail 'Friend plummeted through the field and staggered home 10th of the eleven.  Wow.  Missed in a maiden at Oaklawn before I had my one and only play at Laurel (I'd had two, but one scratched).  It was my "Laurel BEST" and it was in their featured eighth, a second level allowance sprint.  Lewisfield had built a sparkling resume of 5/3-1-1 which included an entry level allowance win in state bred company, in OPEN company, and a state-bred stakes win.  His last three starts had earned Beyer speed figures of 88-88-85 and of the combined 172 figures run by today's rivals, TWO would be competitive.  That 1% chance of an upset seemed slight to say the least.  Pressed the pace along the rail to the turn, glided to the front and when asked kissed the field a pleasant good afternoon good-bye!

Another "prime time" winner as I cashed for $40 even!  After a no-show performance in Aqueduct's 7th it was time for the 9th at Gulfstream, an entry level allowance on the turf.  Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti had made my top choice, Krampus, his BEST of the day.  So you knew he'd be a short price.  He had a late running style but his last two Beyers of 90 and 93 were better than all but two of the combined 110 figures earned by his rivals.  Those had been earned a year ago and in a summer-time state-bred stakes (not nearly this caliber of competition).  He was trapped behind horses into the turn, but found a seam as heads turned for home and he was gaining with every stride.  Got to the leader a hundred yards out and edged clear.  WHOOO HOOOO!  Finally!  I'd been surprised his odds had floated to 9/5 as they approached the gate.  And as I walked through the simulcast area I saw his final odds had clicked up to 2/1!  WHAT!  The numbers flashed for the payout.....


That's right, a big $6.80 meant I'd cash for over $50 on my first local winner!  Just as I came down from the balcony-walk way over the paddock from filming the recap it was time for the first of the graded stakes from Santa Anita.  The Grade 2 Palos Verdes was a six furlong sprint and it was serving as the 2018 debut for Breeders' Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse Award Sprint Champion Roy H.  Typically, even at odds-on, such a runner would be worthy of a BET of the Day kind of wager.  But I was a big leery at the almost certain short price.  First, it had been stated by his connections that this was simply a prep for the Group 1 $2 Million Golden Shaheen in Dubai next month; second, Roy H was a stalker/finisher which meant if someone got loose on the front end AND he was not being asked for his best he was vulnerable.  Not to worry.  Sat behind a trio of front runners who dueled to the turn then glided up without being asked and drew off while simply cantering to the wire.

My triple investment produced almost $20 but it was more about having the winner than the cash on this one.  Missed in my next five, three of which were graded events for sophomores.  The one worthy of mention was the Grade 3 Dania Beach on the turf at Gulfstream.  Untamed Domain figured to be odds-on off a just-miss 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf.  But his figures weren't anything special and he was a deep closer in a crowded field.  I liked Todd Pletcher's Gidu who was stepping up off a MSW win in a turf sprint to this two-turn graded event.  He figured to be a fair price and he was at 5/2.  Right to the front, dogged by the 4/1 third choice to the top of the lane they dueled to the wire and from where I sat I really thought I'd won....

Nope, that's me on the inside.....sooooo close :(  It was time for the finale at Tampa, but there was a delay and so I watched from the Fair Grounds as Leslie May swept to the front in the slop and edged clear to win a MSW two-turn event and perhaps put herself in line to try stakes company next time out.  Finally they were in the gate for the Tampa turf finale.  I really liked Tolstoy who had been second in a MSW at Keeneland in a sprint last fall.  But he had the breeding to handle the turf of this maiden claiming race.  If even close to what his connections thought of his talent when they laid out $535K for him he'd win under one of the better Tampa riders, Daniel Centeno.  He was listed at a ridiculous 20/1 by the Daily Racing Form and I noted that if he was well bet I'd up the bet.  He was 2/1 in the official program and I knew I'd up the bet, so I did.  He went right to the front, was challenged through the turn, but repelled those rivals and edged clear late.

The initial $5 bet had been upped, that's right, to a "PRIME TIME" play for my ninth win on the day!  But far and away the best story of the day surrounded the featured Grade 2, $350K Holy Bull for three-year-olds on the Florida Derby trail.  As I handicapped the card on Thursday in Orlando while visiting our son Brad, his wife, and our adorable grandson Oliver, I first noted that this was a very competitive field of eleven sophomores, none of which stood out.  And, I noted, I didn't think MY Derby horse was in here.  But after looking over the field I went with the Todd Pletcher colt.  After I wrote him up as my choice I was noting the other possible winners and I came to Mississippi who'd drawn post eleven.  BUT his last two speed figures were better than anything the rest of the field had run, ever.  It hit me that this was the same identical scenario as last week's Pegasus Cup where Gun Runner also had a "Double Beyer Advantage" but was wide.  I had stuck with him and he'd won handily.  I changed my analysis and copied the comments on Mississippi and pasted them at the top of the analysis to make HIM the triple investment play.  When I arrived at Gulfstream and got to my seat in Section 101, Row A I checked the scratches....there were only three from the main body of any of the races, but one of them WAS Mississippi.  Now typically when this happens I pass the race because when I list second and third choices they aren't necessarily who I think has the second or third best chance to win.  But here, I was struck by all the "signs" from the "Racing Gods."  First, I'd originally made the Pletcher colt my top pick; now the horse I'd put over him was out; it was Super Bowl week and to make a change would be to "call an audible" in football jargon.  The Pletcher colt's name.....AUDIBLE - could the signs be any more aligned that I was meant to bet him?  My original analysis is on the right - the one I printed on the left:

As the field left the gate Audible found himself in a perfect tracking position.  At the top of the far turn he made his move and was immediately followed by one of the betting choices.  As they began to straighten for the sprint to the first finish line the track announcer called out it would be a "classic confrontation."  But that lasted about two jumps before Audible found another gear and drew off with authority.  His winning time was only a couple of clicks off the track record!  And to add to the story, he paid a whopping $8.40 so with my triple investment I'd cash for over $60 and had drawn nearly even on the 2-for-10 Gulfstream bets for the day!  Oh my!


As I left I had two outstanding bets.  I missed on the latter, Brad Free's "Best" at Santa Anita when Gotham Desire was a non-factoring 9th at 9/1 odds.  But the other had a story to go with it.  Mitole had been my choice in a MSW at the Fair Grounds in December when I was playing there daily.  There were three sharp debuting colts and they'd finished in a photo finish with Mitole third.  When Jim and I went to New Orleans and I handicapped the Oaklawn card, there was Mitole in a MSW event.  Why had he shipped to Arkansas unless they thought they had the winner?  Was the post time favorite, but was a distant second.  Today he simply looked much the best and he was the DRF's "BEST" of the day.  Right to the front and he coasted in a powerful win by nearly a pole.  As track announcer Vic Stauffer pointed out, the final time for Mitole's maiden win was two clicks FASTER than the winning time of the featured King Cotton Stakes for older sprinters!  That win gave me a total of eleven wins, nearly 40% and a flat-bet profit for the day.  Considering the 2-for-10 results at Gulfstream, I was thrilled!  And in a side note, before racing started on Wednesday I'd run the numbers for Gulfstream through the first two months......

Very impressive Mr. Mark!

Holy Bull Day Highlights