Gulfstream 2017-18

Welcome to my Gulfstream 2017-18 racing web page! This winter racing season at Gulfstream Park I handicapped every live card for the entire four months; that's 87 racing days and nearly 1,500 races. I posted my selections and wagers for every day and kept daily/weekly journals which you can access below. In addition to going to Gulfstream regularly I went to the Fair Grounds and Laurel with my good buddy from Minnesota, Jim Anderson for racing weekend adventures; and Kim and I were joined at Tampa Bay Downs by her parents and our pals Jack & Anya Pence for their Festival/Derby Day. Other notable days should included - going to the January 27th $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Day, and of course March 31st which is Florida Derby Day 2018! This year marks our ten year anniversary of hosting a Florida Derby Day outing! This racing season produced THE BEST Gulfstream/Winter Season results I've ever had! For the four months of racing my final numbers were: 831 selections / 290 WINS (34.9%) with an ROI of $2.10 which produced a flat bet profit over the course of the winter!

Florida Derby Day 2018

What a great day! EVERYONE had a great time, the weather was super, we all WON, and I personally had seven wins...including three Derby Day stakes among which one was the Florida Derby itself. Just a sensational end to the best Gulfstream winter meeting ever! Click HERE to ready the stories of the big day of racing!

March 24 - 25

It was Louisana Derby Weekend and while I did win with my BEST of the day on that Fair Grounds card and with my TWO BEST bets at Gulfstream, as well as the Oaklawn feature race, the rest of Saturday was a lot of near misses. But after watching the races from home on Saturday I went to Gulfstream Sunday for Florida Cup Day (in Tampa) and was a big 7-for-16! Click HERE to read the stories and see the pics!

March 16 - 19:  The Laurel Adventure: Baltimore

I left Fort Lauderdale Friday morning and met my buddy Jim Anderson at the Baltimore airport about 11:30. Our "weekend home" at the Marriott Residence Inn was minutes away and after quickly checking in we headed out for a day of racing at Laurel Park. Our first impression was NOT good as the grandstand was under construction, but then the simulcast & clubhouse areas were great. Hit the first bet of the weekend at 11/1 and we were off! Finished a good Friday with dinner at a local crab place. All day Saturday at the track, highlighted by a five-win day at Oaklawn on their Rebel Stakes card including my BEST of the Day there AND the Rebel Stakes winner. On last half day on Sunday and then flew home late at night. What a great adventure! Click HERE to read about our three day racing weekend!

Click HERE For Tampa Bay Derby Day Recap!

Saturday March 10 

Kim and I drove across the state on Friday to her parents' west coast condo and then the four of us drove up to Tampa on Saturday morning to meet our good friends Anya and Jack at Tampa Bay Downs for their Tampa Bay Derby Day Festival. Had FOUR big wins on the Tampa card, including my BET of the Day and three stakes, while cashing on five other races (three from Gulfstream and my Oaklawn BEST on Whitmore in their featured Hot Springs Stakes). Had a great racing adventure and shared it with family & friends, cannot get better than that! Click HERE to read the journals for the week.

Fountain of Youth Week: 2/28-3/5

The good news is that for the five days of racing I was a solid 32% winner; the bad news is that on the BIG DAY, Fountain of Youth Saturday, I only had three wins all day long with only one of those coming at Gulfstream Park. But, as I commented at one point in the week's video highlights (at right) "....you can't expect to win them all...." although I always am surprised when I do NOT win! Certainly the two highlights of the week came on Friday when Todd Pletcher's National Flag won when I upped the bet to "BET of the Day" status ($50 to WIN); and then late that night, early Saturday morning when "the Mighty Mare," Winx won here 2018 debut race as my BET of the WEEK! 

Click HERE To See WEEK 14 Results

Hawaakon UPSETS Gr 3 Razorback - Cash for over $100!

February 14 - 19
An extended week of racing was highlighted by the HUGE UPSET SPECIAL in the Grade 3 Razorback at Oaklawn on Monday and the big day of racing on Saturday - Risen Star Stakes Day at the Fair Grounds. For the long week of racing I had 36% winners and a profit of $75! Over the five days of racing I had not one, not two, but three "BET of the Day" wins.  Click HERE to read the stories of the week!

Saturday February 17:  Risen Star Stakes Day
At The Fair Grounds - FIVE Stakes WINS At Gulfstream!

Saturday Feb 17:  A Fourteen Win Day (37%)!

I had spent hours handicapping not only the races for the Fair Grounds big stakes-laden card and Gulfstream's 11-stakes filled card, but also Tampa, Oaklawn, Aqueduct, Santa Anita and the multi-stakes race card at Laurel where it was their "Winter Carnival" Day. By the time the day had finished I'd won FIVE stakes at Gulfstream, and three stakes at both the Fair Grounds and Laurel with a grand total of fourteen winners on the day from thirty-eight selections. Click HERE to read all the details of the BIG day at the races.

Sunday February 11
What a day, AGAIN! So, SO many times I am hesitant to play on Sunday afternoons because I point the big day Saturday with a full-out assault on the track, and then I have a big day. But then the glow is tarnished with a less than successful Sunday at the races. Saturday morning, I handicapped the Sunday races trying to be very conservative. But I found a BIG TIME bet of the day, and a "prime time" play. I won four-of-six, and both of those big plays paid handsomely. The bottom line was a profit of over $120 with a 4-for-6 performance. Amazing. Click HERE to read the stories.

February 10:   Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
It was a great day at the races with the highlight races coming at Tampa Bay Downs where there were four graded stakes. It was their preview day for the signature Tampa Bay Derby Day card which is March 10th, and we will be there! I met one of my all-time favorite former students, Jennifer (who lives in Colorado) at the track for the first part of the day and then my buddy Steve Leland and his wife (and their friends) later in the day. I won four races (from seven picks) at Tampa including two of the graded stakes, and the BET of the DAY on World Approval in the Grade 3 Tampa Stakes! Click HERE to read about the big day Saturday.

Feb 10 continued.....
I only had two winners at Gulfstream, from nine selections, but one of them was a Pletcher colt who paid $9.20 and I cashed for almost $70. I also played Santa Anita where I hit the Grade 2 Santa Maria as Unique Bella made her 4yo debut a smashing success. And after heading for home I played the late night races at Delta Downs where it was Louisiana Premier Night, and won with Mobile Bay in the La Premier Championship. For the day I was an excellent 10 for 27 which figures to 38%! Whoo hoo!

Wednesday February 7
Decided to kick off the new week of racing by heading out to Gulfstream for the first six races of the day. And it was an unusual sequence of selections for me. In the second a last out, cheap maiden claiming winner with a low Beyer; in the fourth, another last out maiden claiming winner claimed AWAY from Todd Pletcher; and in the sixth a last out winner for $30K DROPPING in for a $16K tag. WON with three of four selections on the day while I was there and was almost 40% for the entire day while scoring a flat bet profit to kick off the week.

The Road To The Florida Derby Begins!

It was a big day at Gulfstream with FIVE graded stakes including the Grade 3 Forward Gal for the 3yo fillies pointing for the Gulfstream Park Oaks and the featured Grade 2 $350K Holy Bull for the 3yo colts looking to reach the Grade 1 Florida Derby on March 31st. After missing on my first seven picks at Gulfstream I scored in two of the last three, including the feature to nearly draw even locally while hitting nearly 40% overall for the day with a flat bet profit. But clearly the story of the day was the big win in the Holy Bull. How ironic that the colt's name was "Audible" ....... when I initially handicapped the race I had him on top; but when I came to Mississippi on the outside I changed my pick because that colt had a Double Beyer advantage and was oh so reminiscent of Gun Runner from last weekend's Grade 1 Pegasus Cup. Moved him to the top choice. Then I get to the track and discover that Mississippi is scratched so I "called an audible" and moved up the Pletcher colt who was just a couple ticks off the track record while scoring a decisive victory and enabling me to cash for nearly $65! Click HERE to read all the stories from today.

Jan. 27-Pegasus Day
What a GREAT day! For the biggest day of the meet I was an amazing 5-for-12 and made a profit of over $150 on the card! The first of the day was a Maiden Special for 3yo and yes, there was a Todd Pletcher runner who paid $19.20 - and I cashed for almost $100 to start the day. The 4th was another MSW and another Pletcher runner was my BEST of the Day. And in the featured event, the $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus, I doubled my own "prime time" bet on Horse of the Year Gun Runner who dominated the race and paid an amazing $4.20 - Click HERE to read all about the big day, wow, what a day!

Click HERE to read how Pegasus Week went, including Sunday's Houston Festival of Racing stakes action

January 20th
It was another good day of racing as I headed out to Gulfstream with my father-in-law Ed and brother-in-law Tim for a full day of stakes action. After a slow start - won my BEST of the Day in Gulfstream's second then went 0-for-6 with four thirds and a second before the winning began in earnest. By the time the races were complete I'd correctly picked EIGHT winners from twenty-three selections - nearly 40% - and had cashed on the BEST of the Day at Gulfstream, Laurel, Tampa, and Oaklawn! Click HERE to read the stories behind today's big day of racing.

January 12 - 15:  The New Orleans Invasion

Friday Jan. 12 (Arrival Day) - BIG WIN at Gulfstream kick-starts the weekend!

Click HERE for the write-ups on the week day racing.

My buddy Jim Anderson and I met in New Orleans Friday evening and spent and extended weekend in the Crescent City. It was a fabulous weekend! On the day we arrived I'd picked FOUR winners at Gulfstream and made a profit of $95! On Saturday we were at the Fair Grounds and I won with 40% of my selections including the BET of the Day at Gulfstream on a Pletcher first time 3yo that somehow paid $9.20 and I cashed for almost $140....and we won FOUR races at the Fair Grounds, three of which were stakes, including my BEST in New Orleans and in the featured Gr 3 Lecomte. Click HERE to read all the details!

Saturday January 6
It wasn't the greatest day of the winter season, but I most certainly enjoyed being AT Gulfstream in the brisk weather. Won two local stakes and hit the featured Gr 3 Sham with McKenzie (thanks to inspiration from our friend MacKenzie Brink that we met on our Avalon Waterways SE Asia trip last summer! Probably THE story of the week was the prime time Todd Pletcher win on Friday to seal a winning day - check out the video highlights at right! Very much looking forward to next Saturday's visit to the Fair Grounds and meeting up with my buddy Jim Anderson.

Tropical Oaks Day:  December 30th
A ten - count them, 10, win day - was highlighted by three stakes wins on Laurel's "Christmastide Saturday Stakes" program, the featured Turf Dash at Tampa - the BET of the Day with Pay Any Price - the featured Woodchopper Stakes at the Fair Grounds with unbeaten Mr. Misunderstood streaking to his 8th consecutive turf win, and the featured Tropical Park Oaks at Gulfstream with Dream A While. Click HERE to read the stories!

Opening Day at Santa Anita!
The day after Christmas is traditionally the opening day of the winter/spring meet at Santa Anita and this year that fell on a Tuesday. So - I expect because they were running at SA - there was live racing at Gulfstream as well. My hot handicapping continued as I went two-for-three at Gulfstream for a flat-bet profit. The west coast card had four graded stakes and it looked like a "layup" in the Gr 2 San Antonio where EVERYONE singled Collected off a runner-up try in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But he ran poorly under what jockey Mike Smith admitted was a "terrible ride." Thought that would do me in for the day, but I bounced back strongly with Unique Bella in the Grade 1 La Brea (over a very talented Paradise Woods) and then big-time kudos to Brad Free who's the only public handicapper who's still in the business that his "BEST" is an automatic bet - that one scored in the finale and I cashed for nearly $40 to seal a 4-for-9 day and a profit on the combined cards of nearly $20. GO ME! Click HERE to see the photos and read the stories!

Christmas Week (December 20-24)
Another great week of racing results! Click HERE to read the journals and see the pics. The week was topped off by a wonderful "Christmas present" from the Todd Pletcher stable when Psalmody blew home at 9/1! Cashed for over $100 to end the week!

Week 3 at Gulfstream Park: December 13-17
After the sensational week last week I knew that this week would probably bring about a "return to normalcy" with lower than usual win percentages to balance out the big week. Well, I was half right as the numbers were lower....instead of 50% wins and a $200 profit, I "only" won 41% of my picks and "only" made a profit of $140! Click HERE to read about the week's adventures!

Wednesday December 13 - WHAT A DAY!
With the best racing in North America being raced daily right in my backyard I make myself the annual promise to try and go out for weekday racing at least once a week. Last week - for a variety of reasons - I didn't make it out there so I was determined to get out there this week. BUT, with the huge win percentage last week I was concerned that I might struggle to have a winning day. For YEARS now my winning percentage always hovers right around 35%. Which is good when I have a slow spell, I KNOW the wins will come; but conversely when I have a hot streak I also know that I will sometime soon return to reality. So as I handicapped the Wednesday card I tried to be very careful and conservative and only have betting selections I felt confident in. Yet, at the end of the card I had EIGHT live bets from a ten race card. So I headed out .... the weather was spectacular, never got out of the sixties! And, even better I won FIVE of eight; better than that four of them were Todd Pletcher runners - two at unbelievable big prices and Songuer in the 9th as my BET of the Day in a last-to-first win in dramatic fashion to close out the day! Nearly $150 in PROFIT made for just a sensational day.....could not have picked a better day to visit Gulfstream! Click HERE for a special journal devoted strictly to this big day!

Week 2 at Gulfstream
I could hardly have had a better week at Gulfstream and the Fair Grounds this week! I cashed exactly 50% of my tickets and made over $200 in profits! WHOOOO HOOOOO! I entered the "Beat the Experts" contest at Gulfstream on Friday and correctly picked 8-of-10 including the longest price of the day on Todd Pletcher's Tiznow Times Two who paid $29.40! Saturday was "Louisiana Champions Day" at the Fair Grounds and I had three stakes wins on the day including my BET of the Day on Mobile Bay who won the Louisiana Champions Classic in a three way photo finish! The weather turned crisp and Kim and I went out on Sunday for a couple of hours where I won two of three including the best of the day Sunday. Click HERE....

Friday December 8: "Beat The Expert" Contest.....WON EIGHT of TEN!

Gulfstream Park:  Opening Day December 2, 2017

The Championship Meet Is Off & Running!
It's difficult to explain how very excited I was for today, as I love this time of year when all the best horses, jockeys, and trainers are running locally. You can often show up on a Thursday afternoon and see stakes quality horses who go on to win big graded stakes later and you get a steady diet of graded stakes action every Saturday afternoon. The traffic was packed going the other way to the mall and I zipped to Hallandale on the I-595 Express Lane. Got there in plenty of time on a day that was a postcard picture perfect setting. There were two non-stakes races, and they were won convincingly by a 60/1 and 50/1 longshot - welcome to Gulfstream's competitive meet! I was able to win four of the ten races I had top selections (one scratched out) - all stakes events. The highlight was the win by my BET of the Day, Pay Any Price in the Canterbury Stakes and the upset by Special Ops in the Emerald Stakes at a $16.20 price. I won two races via simulcast including the one and only Grade 1 on the national calendar when Sharp Azteca won the Cigar Mile at Aqueduct. For the day I had a profit of nearly $30 and considering I was under 30% for the day I was delighted with that. Click HERE to read the journals from the week and today's big day of racing!

Gayla McGonigle, my gal-pal from high school and I meet to in Columbus as the winter racing season begins

Florida Derby Day

The Season Finishes With A BIG BANG!

I began preparing for Florida Derby Day, specifically, a week ago but really the entire four months from Opening Day in December until today is the business of handicapping, watching, and gathering insights.  And it ALL paid off in a BIG way today.  Such a great day at the races!  To start with, this marked the tenth anniversary that we'd been hosting a Florida Derby Day Adventure.

Today we were joined by a smaller than recent years group of fifteen family and friends - and to a person they not only enjoyed the day, the great weather, the big crowd & excitement, but EVERYONE had a winning day!  Adding to this good fortune, our oldest son Jeff was playing along and he had a very big day and is poised for a big Kentucky Derby Day!  You can see my travel page with the posed pictures by clicking HERE.

I contemplated playing multiple tracks today and that option was made a little more difficult because I usually play the Louisiana Derby card from the Fair Grounds, but they moved that up a week so it was run last weekend.  There really were not any big races to consider so I opted at first to not play anywhere else.  But then I read that Saturday was also Dubai World Cup Day, so I looked at five of their big events and had two selections.  As I went through the handicapping process at first glance I had multiple BIG bets, but I didn't feel comfortable with that, so I backed down to enjoy the day more and knew if I had a "good" day I'd win...if I didn't I'd still enjoy the day without a big loss.  The first bet of the day when the UAE Derby went off at 9:30 am and I watched it live on the big screen at home just before we left for the races.  I wanted to watch, and wager here because when I was at the Breeders' Cup last fall and I picked Mendelssohn to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, and he did, I was very intrigued that his connections immediately announced he'd be pointed for the Kentucky Derby.  It's unusual for a European to run in the Kentucky Derby, though not uncommon.  But it's HIGHLY unusual for a turf champion to immediately be targeting the dirt Derby.  He'd won his 3yo debut, on the grass.  Then last time out was an impressive winner on an all-surface track.  Still, it's a long way from synthetic to dirt and today the Meydan dirt surface would be the first time he tried that.  I thought (a) he was simply the best Euro 3yo and could win on talent alone, but (b) his breeding seemed to suggest he'd like the dirt.  And finally, that his connections had had this plan all along made me feel even more comfortable.  Mendelssohn pressed the pace in the mile & 3/16th race to the far turn, took over without any urging and ran away by SEVENTEEN - yes, 17 - widening lengths without ever being asked to run.  He is CLEARLY the best 3yo on the other side of "the pond" and I think he's a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat.

As soon as the prices were official - paid a generous $5.60, allowing me to cash for nearly $30 to kick off the day - we headed to Gulfstream Park.  When the last race had ended Friday the Rainbow-Pick 6 had climbed to well over $5 Million and I knew with the mandatory payout announced for Saturday that it would probably be $8-$9 Million and so when we had hosted our family & friends on Friday night I told everyone I'd have a ticket for them to consider.  The "smallest" $0.20 wager that I felt comfortable with was going to be $43.60 but I felt more comfortable with the $86 option (which only added two more runners.  As I told Kim, I wouldn't bet $40 and then "get knocked out in the first leg, win five out of six and come up empty," so my plan was to offer the bet to everyone and we'd split the investment by how ever many wanted in and then split the winnings if we were so fortunate, so here was my ticket as we began the live racing, with the Pick-Six starting in Race 9:

In the opener at GP by the Sea I thought Noble Drama looked very strong.  He'd just missed in his debut to the heavy favorite Noble Commander then came back to romp in one of the most visually impressive maiden wins of the winter.  It sealed the deal for me when Noble Commander returned last Sunday in Tampa's Sophomore Stakes to win impressively as the even money favorite.  Sent off as the luke-warm 2/1 favorite he was farther back than I thought he'd be and produced a mild rally to finish a non-threatening third.  I passed the second but as the winner drew off through the lane at a gigantic 45/1 I heard Kim say, "my dad has that one!"  He showed me his ticket - OH MY!  I asked why he liked the horse and he replied because he didn't like any of the jockeys in the race so he went with the longshot.

What a payoff!  Certainly the "upset win of the day" in spite of it being in the 2nd race, who's going to top that for $2!  WOW.  In the third it was a $6.25K claiming event and the obvious choice, I thought was Solve.  His best race would win this by a pole, but I was leery because in spite of being a HUGE class dropper for trainer Jorge Navarro - who does that all the time - the rider today was Chris Landeros who had "built" a 6-for-114 record, ouch, AND solve had lost by forty lengths last time out.  Good enough to bet, but only the minimum.  Well, he showed up with his "A Game" and truly won by a pole....my first live winner on track!

After running 2nd in the Dubai World Cup as the 3/5 favorite in my only other bet there then 3rd and 5th in live races at GP I passed the 6th.  I gave my buddy Jeff Nelson two options - a class dropping longshot in this maiden sprint and a 5/2 pick who was being bet down from 10/1 program odds.  He wanted the price....of course the other one won.  The seventh was a Maiden Special Weith event for 3yo, this one on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth.  Was there a Todd Pletcher - oh yes, Legend Emma.  But this one of the races I originally intended to back of.  Then I thought, "....no, it's my rule - so to speak - that all Pletcher 3yo in maiden events get a double investment...."  So I did.  She went right to the front but seemed to be shortening stride as they came out of the turn and my second choice, the logical winner Special Trip was gliding up.  But as heads turned for home 'Emma would not back down under John Velazquez!  Head bobbing to the wire it was anyone's guess.  Jeff - sitting to my right said he thought we lost; Dan, sitting to my left said he thought we won.  From our angle it was hard to tell but as I'd watched it through my camera and looking up live I really thought we had the head bob.  The slow-motion was inconclusive.  Just as the jumbo-tron came up with a split screen of the two runners the numbers flashed.....

WHOOOO HOOOO!  And at a generous $7.40 allowing me to cash for nearly $40!  The eighth was my BET of the Day on last year's Florida Derby & Kentucky Derby winner, Always Dreaming.  My only concern was the one-turn mile as all his races had been at two turns.  The race played out EXACTLY as I thought when Conquest Big E went to the front and went too fast while Always Dreaming tracked him.  When the half mile was announced in :45 and change I knew we were home free especially with the champ chasing a 12/1 longshot.  But 'Big E never stopped and held on while Always Dreaming finished a sharp second.  When my minimum bet in the 9th finished 8th at 3/1 I told Jeff Nelson it was time to make "some changes!"  Took off the sunglasses and put on my new Florida Derby ball cap!  I had no sooner put it on and was getting ready to remove my sunglasses when I noticed at the bottom of the stairs in front of our section was a girl with a "Selfie Pole" - I would not have recognized this except on Pegasus Day I overheard three guys talking to the person with one and you get a great photo, for free taken of you and posted online.  I grabbed Kim and we hustled down and got our "official selfie" taken to join the online crowd!

The tenth was a second level allowance and several things pointed out Todd Pletcher's Outplay.  First, generally, I'd told everyone Friday night that if the day went even close to the way I saw it, Pletcher and Velazquez were going to have a banner day.  And in this specific race, Outplay had won three of his last five starts, the two losses behind West Coast who'd won the Gr 1 Travers and Gr 1 Pa Derby then run 2nd in both the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup and Gr 1 Pegasus Cup behind Horse of the Year Gun Runner....and he was the prohibitive choice in the $10 Million Dubai World Cup earlier today (ran 2nd to a 10/1 UAE based runner).  The only "issue" was he had not been out since the fall.  But I told everyone that this was a Pletcher common move and that they even announced his big numbers frequently on the air and STILL those horses paid fair prices.  True to form they announce Pletcher's gigantic 42% win rate with long layoff runners at Gulfstream.  Finally, the owner was New York based Michael Repole.  And over the years I've learned he ALWAYS wants to win, and when ever it's his horse with Pletcher & Velazquez they win at an unusually high rate.  Outplay tracked dueling leaders to the far turn, then glided up effortlessly and ran away by nearly half a dozen lengths without any urging.

AND just as I'd predicted, in spite of the public announcement and SHOWING the numbers on the big screen, somehow Outplay paid $6.00 and I cashed for $45 on my triple investment!  Only wished in hindsight I'd made HIM the "Bet of the Day" :)  I had three wins now on track and four for the day so the day was a "good"one, but I told Dan that I just wanted to win at least one stakes today to make the day a complete success.  As Jeff went over my picks and asked for my thoughts I told him that the Grade 2 Honey Fox, the 11th and next race up going a mile on the turf, looked almost as wide open as the 12th, the Gulfstream Park Oaks.  I told him I really thought nearly every one entered could win and that if this were not Florida Derby Day I'd probably just watch.  But with that said, I liked Lull who was drawn inside and was dropping out of a "better than it looks" effort in a Grade 1 event.  And I knew I did NOT like the favorite On Leave.  She was talented and a deserving favorite, but she just looked to me like she'd been cleverly spotted by running in big races that were at unique spots on the calendar where the "real stars" would not run.  Lull had won with pressing trips, but had weakened every time she'd gone to the lead.  So my thinking was she'd use the inside post to get a great pressing trip under Eclipse Award winning rider Jose Ortiz and he'd let longshot Team of Teams have the lead; she didn't figure to class up and this would lead to a great trip, giving Lull the jump on the closers.  But right out of the gate these two dueled hard for the lead.  I even said to Jeff as they swung into the first turn, "I want the lead, NO I WANT the lead - this isn't good for us."  But 'Team backed off as they hit the backstretch and when the splits were posted at :22 and change and :45 and change I knew we were cooked.  I thought, well maybe - even though it was on the dirt - somehow Conquest Big E had gone on with it after insane splits AND the turf course had been playing to speed of late.  Turning for home she was clear on the lead, but at the furlong pole could see that for ever two strides Lull was taking the closers were taking three or four.  This is going to be close.....just as with the Legend Emma it was a photo finish and my two buddies had split opinions.  But again, I said I thought that to me I thought we'd held on.  And this time the slow-motion replay bore me out to be correct.

A very nice $8.60 and considering I wouldn't probably have bet the race under normal circumstances I was delighted to (a) have my first stakes win of the afternoon AND collect over $20! In the Oaks I liked a last-out maiden winner who was relatively well played at 6/1 and she was right there on the turn until she gave way.  My third choice was Coach Rocks who was intriguing to me because leading rider Luis Saez (who set a Gulfstream Park record for wins in a meet earlier today) had picked this filly who'd taken SEVEN tries to break her maiden for trainer Dale Romans instead of a last-out stakes winner.  When that one scratched it should have been a sign that this filly was the real deal.  But in spite of winning at today's distance, she'd gone wire to wire and there looked to be plenty of speed.  Today Saez took her back and she finished full of run to win at well over $9 for a $2 bet.  Well, I thought it was a wide open race.  In the 13th I was nearly certain of one thing....the likely short priced favorite, Sadler's Joy would NOT win the Grade 2 Pan American at the marathon distance of a mile and a half.  Why?  He was a DEEP closer and I'd been certain he wouldn't win the prep for this here, but he did with a dream run.  Despite the 3/2-1-0 local record I just saw the race shape differently today.  It looked to me like 2-for-17 on the turf One Go All Go would be committed to the front end and then the rest of the real contenders would be laying in the back trying to outfinish each other and get that "dream trip."  Who would be tracking the speed, well that looked like Hi Happy.  And he jumped off the page for me.  After going 5-for-6 in his native Argentina he'd run four times in North America, all in graded events, all on the west coast, all competitive efforts, and had Beyer figures in those that were nearly as good as ANY figure the top ones had owned.  But here was the key, last time out Hi Happy had moved from a 1-for-18 west coast trainer's barn to Todd Pletcher's barn.  Uh oh.  And he'd improved his speed figure another click making him a legitimate favorite.  AND that race had come off a tenth month layoff....he was bound to improve today, and with the pace picture that made him a likely win contender.  Pletcher rarely wins on the turf, much less turf stakes, and even more unusual turf marathon stakes....but this entire meet has been about Mr. Todd winning at good prices with turf runners and class droppers that "don't figure."  I was disappointed Hi Happy was listed as the 3/1 third choice, but he left the gate at nearly the same odds.  You could not have SCRIPTED it more like I'd forseen it.  And on the far turn Hi Happy took over, sprinted away to an insurmountable lead - I had the winner; AND Sadler's Joy....no where to be found!  WHOOOO HOOOO!

I guess taking off the sunglasses and putting on the hat worked!  And I have to give Mr. Nelson some credit, when I told him that was my plan he took HIS sunglasses off and "adjusted" his hat!  And now it was Florida Derby Time!

About a month ago my oldest Jeff had been so impressed with Pletcher's colt, Audible in the Holy Bull that he got a $50 future bet on him at locked-on odds of 13/1.  For his sake I wanted Audible to win, and I HAD bet him and cashed in that race.  But I wasn't convinced he was "THE" horse.  I thought he'd be the favorite and I looked hard for an alternative.  But as I told everyone on Friday evening he just looked too good, and the set-up looked ideal for him.  And I just thought that it was just "in the stars" that the headlines on Sunday would be, "Pletcher Wins Multiple Races, Capped Off With 4th Florida Derby In Last 5 Years!"  From a race analysis, 3yo sprint sensation Strike Power had tried two turns in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and took back off the pace only to see Promises Fulfilled coast on an easy lead and he chased him in second from gate to wire.  With the rail draw I KNEW they'd go back to trying to be on the front.  And Promises Fulfilled was in post 4, he too would be intent on the lead.  Audible would sit a perfect trip.  The only thing that did NOT play out as I thought was that both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled were suicidal in their mission to the front, with the pace being an absolutely insane :21.4 for the opening quarter - that would be too wicked for a star SPRINTER going six furlongs, much less three-year-olds trying NINE furlongs today.  When the half was in :46 and change they were cooked.  John Velazquez swept up and blew by running away through the lane without really asking for his best.

He is a very legitimate Kentucky Derby horse for sure - good for Jeff.  Hey wait, what about that $21 Million Rainbow Pick-Six?  As I feared we were knocked out in the opening leg (Race 9) by a $31 winner.  But check out the other results....

Sigh....soooo close.  But hey, won SEVEN on the day for a BIG day and closed out the winter with THE BEST winter record I've EVER, and I mean E-V-E-R had.

Kim and I are off to Europe on Tuesday for ten days and as much as I love the day-to-day handicapping at Gulfstream, after four months, eighty-seven days, and 1,471 races I've analyzed, I am ready for a vacation :)

Florida Derby Day Highlights