The Season Finishes With A BIG BANG!
I began preparing for Florida Derby Day, specifically, a week ago but really the entire four months from Opening Day in December until today is the business of handicapping, watching, and gathering insights. And it ALL paid off in a BIG way today. Such a great day at the races! To start with, this marked the tenth anniversary that we'd been hosting a Florida Derby Day Adventure.
Today we were joined by a smaller than recent years group of fifteen family and friends - and to a person they not only enjoyed the day, the great weather, the big crowd & excitement, but EVERYONE had a winning day! Adding to this good fortune, our oldest son Jeff was playing along and he had a very big day and is poised for a big Kentucky Derby Day! You can see my travel page with the posed pictures by clicking HERE.
I contemplated playing multiple tracks today and that option was made a little more difficult because I usually play the Louisiana Derby card from the Fair Grounds, but they moved that up a week so it was run last weekend. There really were not any big races to consider so I opted at first to not play anywhere else. But then I read that Saturday was also Dubai World Cup Day, so I looked at five of their big events and had two selections. As I went through the handicapping process at first glance I had multiple BIG bets, but I didn't feel comfortable with that, so I backed down to enjoy the day more and knew if I had a "good" day I'd win...if I didn't I'd still enjoy the day without a big loss. The first bet of the day when the UAE Derby went off at 9:30 am and I watched it live on the big screen at home just before we left for the races. I wanted to watch, and wager here because when I was at the Breeders' Cup last fall and I picked Mendelssohn to win the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, and he did, I was very intrigued that his connections immediately announced he'd be pointed for the Kentucky Derby. It's unusual for a European to run in the Kentucky Derby, though not uncommon. But it's HIGHLY unusual for a turf champion to immediately be targeting the dirt Derby. He'd won his 3yo debut, on the grass. Then last time out was an impressive winner on an all-surface track. Still, it's a long way from synthetic to dirt and today the Meydan dirt surface would be the first time he tried that. I thought (a) he was simply the best Euro 3yo and could win on talent alone, but (b) his breeding seemed to suggest he'd like the dirt. And finally, that his connections had had this plan all along made me feel even more comfortable. Mendelssohn pressed the pace in the mile & 3/16th race to the far turn, took over without any urging and ran away by SEVENTEEN - yes, 17 - widening lengths without ever being asked to run. He is CLEARLY the best 3yo on the other side of "the pond" and I think he's a legitimate Kentucky Derby threat.
As soon as the prices were official - paid a generous $5.60, allowing me to cash for nearly $30 to kick off the day - we headed to Gulfstream Park. When the last race had ended Friday the Rainbow-Pick 6 had climbed to well over $5 Million and I knew with the mandatory payout announced for Saturday that it would probably be $8-$9 Million and so when we had hosted our family & friends on Friday night I told everyone I'd have a ticket for them to consider. The "smallest" $0.20 wager that I felt comfortable with was going to be $43.60 but I felt more comfortable with the $86 option (which only added two more runners. As I told Kim, I wouldn't bet $40 and then "get knocked out in the first leg, win five out of six and come up empty," so my plan was to offer the bet to everyone and we'd split the investment by how ever many wanted in and then split the winnings if we were so fortunate, so here was my ticket as we began the live racing, with the Pick-Six starting in Race 9:
In the opener at GP by the Sea I thought Noble Drama looked very strong. He'd just missed in his debut to the heavy favorite Noble Commander then came back to romp in one of the most visually impressive maiden wins of the winter. It sealed the deal for me when Noble Commander returned last Sunday in Tampa's Sophomore Stakes to win impressively as the even money favorite. Sent off as the luke-warm 2/1 favorite he was farther back than I thought he'd be and produced a mild rally to finish a non-threatening third. I passed the second but as the winner drew off through the lane at a gigantic 45/1 I heard Kim say, "my dad has that one!" He showed me his ticket - OH MY! I asked why he liked the horse and he replied because he didn't like any of the jockeys in the race so he went with the longshot.
What a payoff! Certainly the "upset win of the day" in spite of it being in the 2nd race, who's going to top that for $2! WOW. In the third it was a $6.25K claiming event and the obvious choice, I thought was Solve. His best race would win this by a pole, but I was leery because in spite of being a HUGE class dropper for trainer Jorge Navarro - who does that all the time - the rider today was Chris Landeros who had "built" a 6-for-114 record, ouch, AND solve had lost by forty lengths last time out. Good enough to bet, but only the minimum. Well, he showed up with his "A Game" and truly won by a pole....my first live winner on track!
After running 2nd in the Dubai World Cup as the 3/5 favorite in my only other bet there then 3rd and 5th in live races at GP I passed the 6th. I gave my buddy Jeff Nelson two options - a class dropping longshot in this maiden sprint and a 5/2 pick who was being bet down from 10/1 program odds. He wanted the price....of course the other one won. The seventh was a Maiden Special Weith event for 3yo, this one on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth. Was there a Todd Pletcher - oh yes, Legend Emma. But this one of the races I originally intended to back of. Then I thought, "....no, it's my rule - so to speak - that all Pletcher 3yo in maiden events get a double investment...." So I did. She went right to the front but seemed to be shortening stride as they came out of the turn and my second choice, the logical winner Special Trip was gliding up. But as heads turned for home 'Emma would not back down under John Velazquez! Head bobbing to the wire it was anyone's guess. Jeff - sitting to my right said he thought we lost; Dan, sitting to my left said he thought we won. From our angle it was hard to tell but as I'd watched it through my camera and looking up live I really thought we had the head bob. The slow-motion was inconclusive. Just as the jumbo-tron came up with a split screen of the two runners the numbers flashed.....
WHOOOO HOOOO! And at a generous $7.40 allowing me to cash for nearly $40! The eighth was my BET of the Day on last year's Florida Derby & Kentucky Derby winner, Always Dreaming. My only concern was the one-turn mile as all his races had been at two turns. The race played out EXACTLY as I thought when Conquest Big E went to the front and went too fast while Always Dreaming tracked him. When the half mile was announced in :45 and change I knew we were home free especially with the champ chasing a 12/1 longshot. But 'Big E never stopped and held on while Always Dreaming finished a sharp second. When my minimum bet in the 9th finished 8th at 3/1 I told Jeff Nelson it was time to make "some changes!" Took off the sunglasses and put on my new Florida Derby ball cap! I had no sooner put it on and was getting ready to remove my sunglasses when I noticed at the bottom of the stairs in front of our section was a girl with a "Selfie Pole" - I would not have recognized this except on Pegasus Day I overheard three guys talking to the person with one and you get a great photo, for free taken of you and posted online. I grabbed Kim and we hustled down and got our "official selfie" taken to join the online crowd!
The tenth was a second level allowance and several things pointed out Todd Pletcher's Outplay. First, generally, I'd told everyone Friday night that if the day went even close to the way I saw it, Pletcher and Velazquez were going to have a banner day. And in this specific race, Outplay had won three of his last five starts, the two losses behind West Coast who'd won the Gr 1 Travers and Gr 1 Pa Derby then run 2nd in both the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup and Gr 1 Pegasus Cup behind Horse of the Year Gun Runner....and he was the prohibitive choice in the $10 Million Dubai World Cup earlier today (ran 2nd to a 10/1 UAE based runner). The only "issue" was he had not been out since the fall. But I told everyone that this was a Pletcher common move and that they even announced his big numbers frequently on the air and STILL those horses paid fair prices. True to form they announce Pletcher's gigantic 42% win rate with long layoff runners at Gulfstream. Finally, the owner was New York based Michael Repole. And over the years I've learned he ALWAYS wants to win, and when ever it's his horse with Pletcher & Velazquez they win at an unusually high rate. Outplay tracked dueling leaders to the far turn, then glided up effortlessly and ran away by nearly half a dozen lengths without any urging.
AND just as I'd predicted, in spite of the public announcement and SHOWING the numbers on the big screen, somehow Outplay paid $6.00 and I cashed for $45 on my triple investment! Only wished in hindsight I'd made HIM the "Bet of the Day" :) I had three wins now on track and four for the day so the day was a "good"one, but I told Dan that I just wanted to win at least one stakes today to make the day a complete success. As Jeff went over my picks and asked for my thoughts I told him that the Grade 2 Honey Fox, the 11th and next race up going a mile on the turf, looked almost as wide open as the 12th, the Gulfstream Park Oaks. I told him I really thought nearly every one entered could win and that if this were not Florida Derby Day I'd probably just watch. But with that said, I liked Lull who was drawn inside and was dropping out of a "better than it looks" effort in a Grade 1 event. And I knew I did NOT like the favorite On Leave. She was talented and a deserving favorite, but she just looked to me like she'd been cleverly spotted by running in big races that were at unique spots on the calendar where the "real stars" would not run. Lull had won with pressing trips, but had weakened every time she'd gone to the lead. So my thinking was she'd use the inside post to get a great pressing trip under Eclipse Award winning rider Jose Ortiz and he'd let longshot Team of Teams have the lead; she didn't figure to class up and this would lead to a great trip, giving Lull the jump on the closers. But right out of the gate these two dueled hard for the lead. I even said to Jeff as they swung into the first turn, "I want the lead, NO I WANT the lead - this isn't good for us." But 'Team backed off as they hit the backstretch and when the splits were posted at :22 and change and :45 and change I knew we were cooked. I thought, well maybe - even though it was on the dirt - somehow Conquest Big E had gone on with it after insane splits AND the turf course had been playing to speed of late. Turning for home she was clear on the lead, but at the furlong pole could see that for ever two strides Lull was taking the closers were taking three or four. This is going to be close.....just as with the Legend Emma it was a photo finish and my two buddies had split opinions. But again, I said I thought that to me I thought we'd held on. And this time the slow-motion replay bore me out to be correct.
A very nice $8.60 and considering I wouldn't probably have bet the race under normal circumstances I was delighted to (a) have my first stakes win of the afternoon AND collect over $20! In the Oaks I liked a last-out maiden winner who was relatively well played at 6/1 and she was right there on the turn until she gave way. My third choice was Coach Rocks who was intriguing to me because leading rider Luis Saez (who set a Gulfstream Park record for wins in a meet earlier today) had picked this filly who'd taken SEVEN tries to break her maiden for trainer Dale Romans instead of a last-out stakes winner. When that one scratched it should have been a sign that this filly was the real deal. But in spite of winning at today's distance, she'd gone wire to wire and there looked to be plenty of speed. Today Saez took her back and she finished full of run to win at well over $9 for a $2 bet. Well, I thought it was a wide open race. In the 13th I was nearly certain of one thing....the likely short priced favorite, Sadler's Joy would NOT win the Grade 2 Pan American at the marathon distance of a mile and a half. Why? He was a DEEP closer and I'd been certain he wouldn't win the prep for this here, but he did with a dream run. Despite the 3/2-1-0 local record I just saw the race shape differently today. It looked to me like 2-for-17 on the turf One Go All Go would be committed to the front end and then the rest of the real contenders would be laying in the back trying to outfinish each other and get that "dream trip." Who would be tracking the speed, well that looked like Hi Happy. And he jumped off the page for me. After going 5-for-6 in his native Argentina he'd run four times in North America, all in graded events, all on the west coast, all competitive efforts, and had Beyer figures in those that were nearly as good as ANY figure the top ones had owned. But here was the key, last time out Hi Happy had moved from a 1-for-18 west coast trainer's barn to Todd Pletcher's barn. Uh oh. And he'd improved his speed figure another click making him a legitimate favorite. AND that race had come off a tenth month layoff....he was bound to improve today, and with the pace picture that made him a likely win contender. Pletcher rarely wins on the turf, much less turf stakes, and even more unusual turf marathon stakes....but this entire meet has been about Mr. Todd winning at good prices with turf runners and class droppers that "don't figure." I was disappointed Hi Happy was listed as the 3/1 third choice, but he left the gate at nearly the same odds. You could not have SCRIPTED it more like I'd forseen it. And on the far turn Hi Happy took over, sprinted away to an insurmountable lead - I had the winner; AND Sadler's Joy....no where to be found! WHOOOO HOOOO!
I guess taking off the sunglasses and putting on the hat worked! And I have to give Mr. Nelson some credit, when I told him that was my plan he took HIS sunglasses off and "adjusted" his hat! And now it was Florida Derby Time!
About a month ago my oldest Jeff had been so impressed with Pletcher's colt, Audible in the Holy Bull that he got a $50 future bet on him at locked-on odds of 13/1. For his sake I wanted Audible to win, and I HAD bet him and cashed in that race. But I wasn't convinced he was "THE" horse. I thought he'd be the favorite and I looked hard for an alternative. But as I told everyone on Friday evening he just looked too good, and the set-up looked ideal for him. And I just thought that it was just "in the stars" that the headlines on Sunday would be, "Pletcher Wins Multiple Races, Capped Off With 4th Florida Derby In Last 5 Years!" From a race analysis, 3yo sprint sensation Strike Power had tried two turns in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and took back off the pace only to see Promises Fulfilled coast on an easy lead and he chased him in second from gate to wire. With the rail draw I KNEW they'd go back to trying to be on the front. And Promises Fulfilled was in post 4, he too would be intent on the lead. Audible would sit a perfect trip. The only thing that did NOT play out as I thought was that both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled were suicidal in their mission to the front, with the pace being an absolutely insane :21.4 for the opening quarter - that would be too wicked for a star SPRINTER going six furlongs, much less three-year-olds trying NINE furlongs today. When the half was in :46 and change they were cooked. John Velazquez swept up and blew by running away through the lane without really asking for his best.
He is a very legitimate Kentucky Derby horse for sure - good for Jeff. Hey wait, what about that $21 Million Rainbow Pick-Six? As I feared we were knocked out in the opening leg (Race 9) by a $31 winner. But check out the other results....
Sigh....soooo close. But hey, won SEVEN on the day for a BIG day and closed out the winter with THE BEST winter record I've EVER, and I mean E-V-E-R had.
Kim and I are off to Europe on Tuesday for ten days and as much as I love the day-to-day handicapping at Gulfstream, after four months, eighty-seven days, and 1,471 races I've analyzed, I am ready for a vacation :)
As soon as the prices were official - paid a generous $5.60, allowing me to cash for nearly $30 to kick off the day - we headed to Gulfstream Park. When the last race had ended Friday the Rainbow-Pick 6 had climbed to well over $5 Million and I knew with the mandatory payout announced for Saturday that it would probably be $8-$9 Million and so when we had hosted our family & friends on Friday night I told everyone I'd have a ticket for them to consider. The "smallest" $0.20 wager that I felt comfortable with was going to be $43.60 but I felt more comfortable with the $86 option (which only added two more runners. As I told Kim, I wouldn't bet $40 and then "get knocked out in the first leg, win five out of six and come up empty," so my plan was to offer the bet to everyone and we'd split the investment by how ever many wanted in and then split the winnings if we were so fortunate, so here was my ticket as we began the live racing, with the Pick-Six starting in Race 9:
In the opener at GP by the Sea I thought Noble Drama looked very strong. He'd just missed in his debut to the heavy favorite Noble Commander then came back to romp in one of the most visually impressive maiden wins of the winter. It sealed the deal for me when Noble Commander returned last Sunday in Tampa's Sophomore Stakes to win impressively as the even money favorite. Sent off as the luke-warm 2/1 favorite he was farther back than I thought he'd be and produced a mild rally to finish a non-threatening third. I passed the second but as the winner drew off through the lane at a gigantic 45/1 I heard Kim say, "my dad has that one!" He showed me his ticket - OH MY! I asked why he liked the horse and he replied because he didn't like any of the jockeys in the race so he went with the longshot.
What a payoff! Certainly the "upset win of the day" in spite of it being in the 2nd race, who's going to top that for $2! WOW. In the third it was a $6.25K claiming event and the obvious choice, I thought was Solve. His best race would win this by a pole, but I was leery because in spite of being a HUGE class dropper for trainer Jorge Navarro - who does that all the time - the rider today was Chris Landeros who had "built" a 6-for-114 record, ouch, AND solve had lost by forty lengths last time out. Good enough to bet, but only the minimum. Well, he showed up with his "A Game" and truly won by a pole....my first live winner on track!
After running 2nd in the Dubai World Cup as the 3/5 favorite in my only other bet there then 3rd and 5th in live races at GP I passed the 6th. I gave my buddy Jeff Nelson two options - a class dropping longshot in this maiden sprint and a 5/2 pick who was being bet down from 10/1 program odds. He wanted the price....of course the other one won. The seventh was a Maiden Special Weith event for 3yo, this one on the turf going a mile and a sixteenth. Was there a Todd Pletcher - oh yes, Legend Emma. But this one of the races I originally intended to back of. Then I thought, "....no, it's my rule - so to speak - that all Pletcher 3yo in maiden events get a double investment...." So I did. She went right to the front but seemed to be shortening stride as they came out of the turn and my second choice, the logical winner Special Trip was gliding up. But as heads turned for home 'Emma would not back down under John Velazquez! Head bobbing to the wire it was anyone's guess. Jeff - sitting to my right said he thought we lost; Dan, sitting to my left said he thought we won. From our angle it was hard to tell but as I'd watched it through my camera and looking up live I really thought we had the head bob. The slow-motion was inconclusive. Just as the jumbo-tron came up with a split screen of the two runners the numbers flashed.....
WHOOOO HOOOO! And at a generous $7.40 allowing me to cash for nearly $40! The eighth was my BET of the Day on last year's Florida Derby & Kentucky Derby winner, Always Dreaming. My only concern was the one-turn mile as all his races had been at two turns. The race played out EXACTLY as I thought when Conquest Big E went to the front and went too fast while Always Dreaming tracked him. When the half mile was announced in :45 and change I knew we were home free especially with the champ chasing a 12/1 longshot. But 'Big E never stopped and held on while Always Dreaming finished a sharp second. When my minimum bet in the 9th finished 8th at 3/1 I told Jeff Nelson it was time to make "some changes!" Took off the sunglasses and put on my new Florida Derby ball cap! I had no sooner put it on and was getting ready to remove my sunglasses when I noticed at the bottom of the stairs in front of our section was a girl with a "Selfie Pole" - I would not have recognized this except on Pegasus Day I overheard three guys talking to the person with one and you get a great photo, for free taken of you and posted online. I grabbed Kim and we hustled down and got our "official selfie" taken to join the online crowd!
The tenth was a second level allowance and several things pointed out Todd Pletcher's Outplay. First, generally, I'd told everyone Friday night that if the day went even close to the way I saw it, Pletcher and Velazquez were going to have a banner day. And in this specific race, Outplay had won three of his last five starts, the two losses behind West Coast who'd won the Gr 1 Travers and Gr 1 Pa Derby then run 2nd in both the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup and Gr 1 Pegasus Cup behind Horse of the Year Gun Runner....and he was the prohibitive choice in the $10 Million Dubai World Cup earlier today (ran 2nd to a 10/1 UAE based runner). The only "issue" was he had not been out since the fall. But I told everyone that this was a Pletcher common move and that they even announced his big numbers frequently on the air and STILL those horses paid fair prices. True to form they announce Pletcher's gigantic 42% win rate with long layoff runners at Gulfstream. Finally, the owner was New York based Michael Repole. And over the years I've learned he ALWAYS wants to win, and when ever it's his horse with Pletcher & Velazquez they win at an unusually high rate. Outplay tracked dueling leaders to the far turn, then glided up effortlessly and ran away by nearly half a dozen lengths without any urging.
AND just as I'd predicted, in spite of the public announcement and SHOWING the numbers on the big screen, somehow Outplay paid $6.00 and I cashed for $45 on my triple investment! Only wished in hindsight I'd made HIM the "Bet of the Day" :) I had three wins now on track and four for the day so the day was a "good"one, but I told Dan that I just wanted to win at least one stakes today to make the day a complete success. As Jeff went over my picks and asked for my thoughts I told him that the Grade 2 Honey Fox, the 11th and next race up going a mile on the turf, looked almost as wide open as the 12th, the Gulfstream Park Oaks. I told him I really thought nearly every one entered could win and that if this were not Florida Derby Day I'd probably just watch. But with that said, I liked Lull who was drawn inside and was dropping out of a "better than it looks" effort in a Grade 1 event. And I knew I did NOT like the favorite On Leave. She was talented and a deserving favorite, but she just looked to me like she'd been cleverly spotted by running in big races that were at unique spots on the calendar where the "real stars" would not run. Lull had won with pressing trips, but had weakened every time she'd gone to the lead. So my thinking was she'd use the inside post to get a great pressing trip under Eclipse Award winning rider Jose Ortiz and he'd let longshot Team of Teams have the lead; she didn't figure to class up and this would lead to a great trip, giving Lull the jump on the closers. But right out of the gate these two dueled hard for the lead. I even said to Jeff as they swung into the first turn, "I want the lead, NO I WANT the lead - this isn't good for us." But 'Team backed off as they hit the backstretch and when the splits were posted at :22 and change and :45 and change I knew we were cooked. I thought, well maybe - even though it was on the dirt - somehow Conquest Big E had gone on with it after insane splits AND the turf course had been playing to speed of late. Turning for home she was clear on the lead, but at the furlong pole could see that for ever two strides Lull was taking the closers were taking three or four. This is going to be close.....just as with the Legend Emma it was a photo finish and my two buddies had split opinions. But again, I said I thought that to me I thought we'd held on. And this time the slow-motion replay bore me out to be correct.
A very nice $8.60 and considering I wouldn't probably have bet the race under normal circumstances I was delighted to (a) have my first stakes win of the afternoon AND collect over $20! In the Oaks I liked a last-out maiden winner who was relatively well played at 6/1 and she was right there on the turn until she gave way. My third choice was Coach Rocks who was intriguing to me because leading rider Luis Saez (who set a Gulfstream Park record for wins in a meet earlier today) had picked this filly who'd taken SEVEN tries to break her maiden for trainer Dale Romans instead of a last-out stakes winner. When that one scratched it should have been a sign that this filly was the real deal. But in spite of winning at today's distance, she'd gone wire to wire and there looked to be plenty of speed. Today Saez took her back and she finished full of run to win at well over $9 for a $2 bet. Well, I thought it was a wide open race. In the 13th I was nearly certain of one thing....the likely short priced favorite, Sadler's Joy would NOT win the Grade 2 Pan American at the marathon distance of a mile and a half. Why? He was a DEEP closer and I'd been certain he wouldn't win the prep for this here, but he did with a dream run. Despite the 3/2-1-0 local record I just saw the race shape differently today. It looked to me like 2-for-17 on the turf One Go All Go would be committed to the front end and then the rest of the real contenders would be laying in the back trying to outfinish each other and get that "dream trip." Who would be tracking the speed, well that looked like Hi Happy. And he jumped off the page for me. After going 5-for-6 in his native Argentina he'd run four times in North America, all in graded events, all on the west coast, all competitive efforts, and had Beyer figures in those that were nearly as good as ANY figure the top ones had owned. But here was the key, last time out Hi Happy had moved from a 1-for-18 west coast trainer's barn to Todd Pletcher's barn. Uh oh. And he'd improved his speed figure another click making him a legitimate favorite. AND that race had come off a tenth month layoff....he was bound to improve today, and with the pace picture that made him a likely win contender. Pletcher rarely wins on the turf, much less turf stakes, and even more unusual turf marathon stakes....but this entire meet has been about Mr. Todd winning at good prices with turf runners and class droppers that "don't figure." I was disappointed Hi Happy was listed as the 3/1 third choice, but he left the gate at nearly the same odds. You could not have SCRIPTED it more like I'd forseen it. And on the far turn Hi Happy took over, sprinted away to an insurmountable lead - I had the winner; AND Sadler's Joy....no where to be found! WHOOOO HOOOO!
I guess taking off the sunglasses and putting on the hat worked! And I have to give Mr. Nelson some credit, when I told him that was my plan he took HIS sunglasses off and "adjusted" his hat! And now it was Florida Derby Time!
About a month ago my oldest Jeff had been so impressed with Pletcher's colt, Audible in the Holy Bull that he got a $50 future bet on him at locked-on odds of 13/1. For his sake I wanted Audible to win, and I HAD bet him and cashed in that race. But I wasn't convinced he was "THE" horse. I thought he'd be the favorite and I looked hard for an alternative. But as I told everyone on Friday evening he just looked too good, and the set-up looked ideal for him. And I just thought that it was just "in the stars" that the headlines on Sunday would be, "Pletcher Wins Multiple Races, Capped Off With 4th Florida Derby In Last 5 Years!" From a race analysis, 3yo sprint sensation Strike Power had tried two turns in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth and took back off the pace only to see Promises Fulfilled coast on an easy lead and he chased him in second from gate to wire. With the rail draw I KNEW they'd go back to trying to be on the front. And Promises Fulfilled was in post 4, he too would be intent on the lead. Audible would sit a perfect trip. The only thing that did NOT play out as I thought was that both Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled were suicidal in their mission to the front, with the pace being an absolutely insane :21.4 for the opening quarter - that would be too wicked for a star SPRINTER going six furlongs, much less three-year-olds trying NINE furlongs today. When the half was in :46 and change they were cooked. John Velazquez swept up and blew by running away through the lane without really asking for his best.
He is a very legitimate Kentucky Derby horse for sure - good for Jeff. Hey wait, what about that $21 Million Rainbow Pick-Six? As I feared we were knocked out in the opening leg (Race 9) by a $31 winner. But check out the other results....
Kim and I are off to Europe on Tuesday for ten days and as much as I love the day-to-day handicapping at Gulfstream, after four months, eighty-seven days, and 1,471 races I've analyzed, I am ready for a vacation :)
Florida Derby Day Highlights
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