Fair Grounds Week 1: Nov 23 - 26

Thanksgiving Week - Racing At The Fair Grounds

November 23 - 26

Kim and I were visiting family in Pennsylvania as the first full week of racing began at the Fair Grounds for the winter racing season.  And the first day of the week that had racing was on Thanksgiving Day.  The brief (for me) two and half days in Pennsylvania was delightful as we stayed with Kim's twin sister Karrie and her retired husband Randy.  The weather was a brisk 20 degrees and Kim and I were able to sit outside on their porch under a heater for well over an hour one morning.  We drove back to Ohio - where I'd been from Friday to Tuesday - and visited with my Mom, sister and niece.  The highlight of that part of the trip was our dinner at the Spaghetti Warehouse....Kim and I both love that place!

Cheers To Another Great Trip/Adventure!

Thursday November 23
The first selection came in the second, a Maiden Claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs for juveniles.  I liked Lougarou who was going for trainer Al Stall who sported a big 43% win average with maidens debuting for a tag, like this.  Sent off at even money he pressed on the outside, took the lead turning for home and was nailed on the wire in a photo finish.  Grrrrr.  In the sixth I had a Fair Grounds 40% Club play in Killeen who was running in a turf route - a Brad Cox club angle (42% with all turf routers).  He was listed at 6/1 in the program and left the gate at a big 8/1.  He pressed in second all the way to the far turn and seemed in hand - I was feeling pretty good about my hitting a big score when he stopped and finished eighth of nine.  The eighth was another turf route and another FG 40% Club play for Brad Cox's Adonis Creed.  This one was the 6/5 favorite and he pressed to the far turn, took over and opened up.  But through the long New Orleans stretch he couldn't hold off two closers and finished third.  The featured event was the ninth, the Thanksgiving Day Handicap.  The favorite was Yockey's Warrior and I thought he was a VERY legitimate favorite.  His last four six furlong sprints had all produced victories; he was 3/2-0-1 over the New Orleans track; AND he was the defending champion of this stakes event.  He let a 15/1 speedster slide over in front of him out of the gate then quickly moved up to press him on the outside for clear running.  As they approached the far turn the rider had had enough of the longshot and blew by.  As they turned for home Yockey's Warrior accelerated and widened his margin with every stride.

My triple investment returned nearly $30!  Whoooo hooooo!  It was a good way to close out my selections for the day :)

Friday November 24
Kim and I had debated for weeks about when to leave Erie and head to Ohio.  Mid-afternoon on Thanksgiving we decided that we'd leave early evening so as to be in Ohio by 11 pm and that would allow us to wake up already there and spend the full day with my family.  We headed out a little after 7 pm and arrived well before eleven making my Mom very happy!  So I made my wagers early Friday morning and watched the replays later that evening.  The third was a "prime time" play for me with Path of David looking like an easy "free bingo square" in the multi-race wagers.  Of the 108 races showing in the past performances for this event ONE runner had earned a number above 80 on the Beyer scale.  Conversely, Path of David showed ELEVEN Beyers of 82 or better.  AND he had a best-of-32 bullet work for today.  Made his move, stretch duel, PHOTO finish!

Second close photo loss of the week.  Sigh.....The other three selections were two price plays and  a favorite - none won.  10/1 ran 7th, 7/5 ran 5th, and 6/1 ran 9th.

Saturday November 25
On today's Fair Grounds card I found five selections from the ten races offered.  After going 0-for yesterday I guess you could say I was "happy" that I got A winner today, but again disappointed that I couldn't manage to cash on the "best" of the day or on any more than a single play.  That winner came in the sixth.  We were on the inner turf course going a mile for two-year-old fillies in Maiden Special company.  Pretty Lady was marooned on the far outside in post 11, but I still thought she was the pick.  She had drawn a $550K bid at auction and after a sharp second in her debut she was entered in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine.  She ran a good fifth but two out of that event had come right back to win.  She came flying down the outside to be up in time.  The meager even money odds meant I'd only cash for ten dollars on the single victory.

The BET of the Weekend came in the one and only race selection that was N-O-T from the Fair Grounds.  I had read online that Pink Lloyd would be the favorite in Woodbine's Kennedy Road Stakes today.  I am very familiar with this guy who was working on a 7-race winning streak, and I'd had him in several of those.  The article mentioned that if he could win this afternoon and conclude the season a perfect 8-for-8 he might be a serious contender for Canadian Horse of the Year.  He was sent off as the favorite and set a pressured pace through the far turn.  So often, especially at Woodbine, front runners give way when asked for the stretch drive, but Pink Lloyd proved why he is a very special sprinter by drawing off to a decisive win!

Cashed for over $30 on the "prime time" play to close out the racing on Saturday.

Sunday November 26
The final day of the week was a ten race card and at first I was a little "concerned" as I had been trying very hard to only make wagering selections when I had a stronger than usual angle, and even then to be conservative with my wagers.  But Saturday morning as I handicapped the Sunday card I found plays in each of the first four races.  But the final six races were such toss-ups that I only named a preferred runner in two of them.  The "best" of the day came in the Sunday opener, a maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies.  As I wrote in my analysis, which I have said on many occasions, "...you either are a believer in Beyer speed figures or you are not; and I am....."  One of the strongest handicapping angles that is most consistent at pointing out winners is the "Double Beyer" advantage.  Color Me Pretty had earned figures of 43 and 35 in her last two starts and those were a pole better than anything the others had run.  In fact the most recent figures earned by those with experience were:  16, 0, 28, 0, 0. and 29.  Still, I had two concerns.....first, the "Double Advantage" angle is LEAST effective with maidens or with lightly raced runners, and Color Me Pretty qualified on BOTH of these counts.  Secondly, in her brief three year career she'd already run second twice.  Hmmmm.  But, like I said, either you are or you are not a Beyer believer.  I doubled the bet.  It was a most unusually run race as 'Pretty dueled on the inside (not the ideal spot) and as they entered the turn she fell back off the leader, and turning for home she was clearly second.  Thoroughbreds are notoriously consistent that once passed they rarely come back to regain the lead, especially inexperienced horses, most especially maidens, and most especially of all a maiden who's already been "content" to run second.  But......

Inside the final 16th Color Me Pretty found a new gear, surged and cleared off to win!  Cashed for nearly $20 on the first play of the day and the only added money selection.

The other three selections failed to show much and all finished off the board.  Not the best first week of racing, but I was "encouraged" that my numbers of 5-for-24 at the meet were a little better than professional analyst Brian Spencer's of 9-for-50 (granted he has to pick every race and I can be selective, but he gets paid and I don't!).  I'll look forward to next week's racing and the opening of Gulfstream Park on Saturday.

Gulfstream Park Opening Day Promo

-the last five seconds are worth the wait!-

November 18

Opening Day At The Fair Grounds

Typically I take nearly two full months off after the Breeders' Cup to "recharge" my handicapping batteries before embarking on the daily routine of handicapping the Gulfstream cards.  But this year, because of my much-anticipated visit to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans in January, I am also handicapping that venue each day....and today was their opening day card.  I've been to the Fair Grounds on two different occasions and I STILL want to be there on a Louisiana Derby Day, but it is always set for the same day as the Florida Derby and my friends and family would never forgive me if I went away instead of planning this big event.  Trust me they wouldn't because a few years ago I threw the idea out that we meet in New Orleans instead of Hallandale and the first person to react gave me a puzzled look and said, "So.....we wouldn't go to the Florida Derby?" with this look of dismay on their face.  Some day.  I am also excited about the visit because my buddy Jim and I are going AND because one of my favorite riders, Chantal Sutherland is riding there this winter.  

The first highlight of this week's racing adventures was when I wrote to the Fair Grounds and asked if it could be arranged for me to meet her and track announcer John G. Dooley.  Pretty excited to add this to the adventure!  So, I got the past performances on Tuesday before leaving for Ohio and handicapped the card and posted them online.  I knew I wanted to do this early because I'd be traveling on Friday and spending the afternoon & evening with my family.  And on Saturday I had plans.  So I was going to be very selective, I told myself going in.  But when I was done I had seven picks from the ten race card, two of which were Fair Grounds 40% Club plays that I'd gotten when I purchased Jim Mazur's "The Fair Grounds Handicapper 2017" the week before the Breeders' Cup.  I made the bets online mid-morning and figured I'd watch the replays later that evening.  First, this was the plan because first post was 3 pm as it was a Twilight Racing program; second, it was a Saturday and that means college football.  But third, today I'd arranged to meet Gayla McGonigle Rogers for lunch close to my Mom's house.  She and I were the best of pals from sixth grade through my sophomore year at Miami University before we drifted apart.  I'd not heard a word from or of her, even though several times I'd looked for her on Facebook, in the nearly 45 years since.  But about a month ago she popped up on a FB photo and I contacted her asking, "Are you my Gayla from WJ?" and she responded that she was indeed.  We had exchanged messages back and forth nearly every day and had arranged for what she predicted would be a "long lunch" today.  We met at 1 pm and within seconds it was like we'd seen each other just a day or so ago.  Such a great time together and we didn't leave the restaurant until after 5:30 pm.  

So, that evening the replays and results.....

The opener was the first of the three I would NOT be betting.  It was a turf event and by far the most accomplished on the grass was Bleu Brave who had ten wins.  BUT he'd not been seen since January and his last two efforts produced losses by more than 90 combined lengths.  Not willing to risk the money - and a good thing as he finished 12th of 12 beaten nearly 30 lengths, ouch.  In the second I liked Ride A Comet in a two-turn dirt MSW for juveniles.  He'd made a strong bid into third at Churchill going two turns before weakening.  With one under his belt I thought he'd move forward.  He made a strong move into the stretch to reach second before again fading and finished fourth as the 6/5 favorite.  The third race was the Mr. Sulu Stakes and I thought the 7/5 program favorite, Trust Factor was a very legitimate favorite.  Of the 108 past performance lines showing, 107 of them earned a Beyer figure of 87 or lower.  Meanwhile Trust Factor had earned 88 or better in four of  his last five were an 88.....he was 6-for-11 on the turf with FIVE of those at this one mile trip and quite possibly would be the lone speed.  AND he was the first FG 40% Club play on the card as trainer Michael Maker was 40% with runners second off a 30+ day layoff.  He was indeed sent off as the low-priced 1-2 favorite and after pushing the leader through the first quarter he took over the lead.  He dueled throughout and when he should have accelerated at the top of the long stretch he could not put the field away and was out finished by about half a length.  Grrrrrr.  Wheatfield was my choice in the next, the Happy Ticket Stakes.  She'd faced FIVE fillies-mares who had run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint a couple of weeks ago and there was no one like that in here today.  But she was too far back and her big late run came too little, too late, second at odds of 3/2.  The next event was the third stakes on the card, the Si Cima Stakes, going a mile on the turf for Louisiana-breds.  My pick was Invienam Viam, my second Fair Grounds 40% Club play of the day.  Trainer Brad Cox has won with 42% of ALL turf route runners over the last two years - simple as that, no distance/time factor/class angle - just turf routes:  42% wins.  Invienam Viam was a perfect 80for-8 in the money on the inner course here in New Orleans, and six of her eight career turf victories came at today's one mile distance.  Scanning down the past performances in her last three turf mile races she'd won two and was best-of-the-rest second behind Believe In Bertie who after winning that allowance race rattled off three straight stakes wins last winter and then ran second in back to back graded stakes at Churchill in the spring.  She sat mid-pack to the far turn, rallied into the stretch to reach the leaders turning for home.  Under strong urging she edged clear late.  Best of all she was NOT the favorite (the 7/5 choice was third, a non-threat). 

I had doubled the bet and cashed my first ticket of the winter season while collecting over $30!  I came right back to score with my next pick, but it wasn't until the eighth race as I passed the sixth and seventh.  The eighth was a two-year-old maiden special sprint and I liked the first time starter Divine Bean.  I was reluctant to make an added money investment because breaking from the rail is often intimidating to first time starters, especially juveniles.  But her best-of-48 work followed by a best-of-87 bullet work, from the gate, was too much to overlook.  She broke sharply, went right to the front and wired the fielkd without ever being threatened. 

Unfortunately she was bet down from her program odds of 4/1 to 3/2 favoritism.  So my payoff was a little less than fifteen dollars, but hey - a win is a win!  In the last two races I missed with back-to-back favorites.  In the ninth, Andthebandplayedon took the lead into the stretch but lost a narrow head bobbing photo to finish second.  And in the finale Angelic Score faltered at minuscule 2/5 odds.  But, I was "pleased" that I didn't buy into her 4/5 program odds as she was plunging in class and it seemed like a red flag.  She SHOULD have been best, but I had my doubts. 

I started keeping track of my selection results and comparing them to Brian Spencer - who answered my email and is the Fair Grounds professional handicapper.  I will mention this often as I have the advantage of NOT having to bet each and every race so my percentages should be higher, and I know that I pick more to find THE winner, not the price play.  For the day I had two wins from seven picks, nearly 30% but far below my win percentage that has been consistently around 35% over the span of 20,000 races in my data base.  Brian also had two winners, from ten picks, but one of his was a $15 winner - congrats to him!  Racing continues on Thanksgiving Day!

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Chantal Sutherland