November 18

Opening Day At The Fair Grounds

Typically I take nearly two full months off after the Breeders' Cup to "recharge" my handicapping batteries before embarking on the daily routine of handicapping the Gulfstream cards.  But this year, because of my much-anticipated visit to the Fair Grounds in New Orleans in January, I am also handicapping that venue each day....and today was their opening day card.  I've been to the Fair Grounds on two different occasions and I STILL want to be there on a Louisiana Derby Day, but it is always set for the same day as the Florida Derby and my friends and family would never forgive me if I went away instead of planning this big event.  Trust me they wouldn't because a few years ago I threw the idea out that we meet in New Orleans instead of Hallandale and the first person to react gave me a puzzled look and said, "So.....we wouldn't go to the Florida Derby?" with this look of dismay on their face.  Some day.  I am also excited about the visit because my buddy Jim and I are going AND because one of my favorite riders, Chantal Sutherland is riding there this winter.  

The first highlight of this week's racing adventures was when I wrote to the Fair Grounds and asked if it could be arranged for me to meet her and track announcer John G. Dooley.  Pretty excited to add this to the adventure!  So, I got the past performances on Tuesday before leaving for Ohio and handicapped the card and posted them online.  I knew I wanted to do this early because I'd be traveling on Friday and spending the afternoon & evening with my family.  And on Saturday I had plans.  So I was going to be very selective, I told myself going in.  But when I was done I had seven picks from the ten race card, two of which were Fair Grounds 40% Club plays that I'd gotten when I purchased Jim Mazur's "The Fair Grounds Handicapper 2017" the week before the Breeders' Cup.  I made the bets online mid-morning and figured I'd watch the replays later that evening.  First, this was the plan because first post was 3 pm as it was a Twilight Racing program; second, it was a Saturday and that means college football.  But third, today I'd arranged to meet Gayla McGonigle Rogers for lunch close to my Mom's house.  She and I were the best of pals from sixth grade through my sophomore year at Miami University before we drifted apart.  I'd not heard a word from or of her, even though several times I'd looked for her on Facebook, in the nearly 45 years since.  But about a month ago she popped up on a FB photo and I contacted her asking, "Are you my Gayla from WJ?" and she responded that she was indeed.  We had exchanged messages back and forth nearly every day and had arranged for what she predicted would be a "long lunch" today.  We met at 1 pm and within seconds it was like we'd seen each other just a day or so ago.  Such a great time together and we didn't leave the restaurant until after 5:30 pm.  

So, that evening the replays and results.....

The opener was the first of the three I would NOT be betting.  It was a turf event and by far the most accomplished on the grass was Bleu Brave who had ten wins.  BUT he'd not been seen since January and his last two efforts produced losses by more than 90 combined lengths.  Not willing to risk the money - and a good thing as he finished 12th of 12 beaten nearly 30 lengths, ouch.  In the second I liked Ride A Comet in a two-turn dirt MSW for juveniles.  He'd made a strong bid into third at Churchill going two turns before weakening.  With one under his belt I thought he'd move forward.  He made a strong move into the stretch to reach second before again fading and finished fourth as the 6/5 favorite.  The third race was the Mr. Sulu Stakes and I thought the 7/5 program favorite, Trust Factor was a very legitimate favorite.  Of the 108 past performance lines showing, 107 of them earned a Beyer figure of 87 or lower.  Meanwhile Trust Factor had earned 88 or better in four of  his last five were an 88.....he was 6-for-11 on the turf with FIVE of those at this one mile trip and quite possibly would be the lone speed.  AND he was the first FG 40% Club play on the card as trainer Michael Maker was 40% with runners second off a 30+ day layoff.  He was indeed sent off as the low-priced 1-2 favorite and after pushing the leader through the first quarter he took over the lead.  He dueled throughout and when he should have accelerated at the top of the long stretch he could not put the field away and was out finished by about half a length.  Grrrrrr.  Wheatfield was my choice in the next, the Happy Ticket Stakes.  She'd faced FIVE fillies-mares who had run in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint a couple of weeks ago and there was no one like that in here today.  But she was too far back and her big late run came too little, too late, second at odds of 3/2.  The next event was the third stakes on the card, the Si Cima Stakes, going a mile on the turf for Louisiana-breds.  My pick was Invienam Viam, my second Fair Grounds 40% Club play of the day.  Trainer Brad Cox has won with 42% of ALL turf route runners over the last two years - simple as that, no distance/time factor/class angle - just turf routes:  42% wins.  Invienam Viam was a perfect 80for-8 in the money on the inner course here in New Orleans, and six of her eight career turf victories came at today's one mile distance.  Scanning down the past performances in her last three turf mile races she'd won two and was best-of-the-rest second behind Believe In Bertie who after winning that allowance race rattled off three straight stakes wins last winter and then ran second in back to back graded stakes at Churchill in the spring.  She sat mid-pack to the far turn, rallied into the stretch to reach the leaders turning for home.  Under strong urging she edged clear late.  Best of all she was NOT the favorite (the 7/5 choice was third, a non-threat). 

I had doubled the bet and cashed my first ticket of the winter season while collecting over $30!  I came right back to score with my next pick, but it wasn't until the eighth race as I passed the sixth and seventh.  The eighth was a two-year-old maiden special sprint and I liked the first time starter Divine Bean.  I was reluctant to make an added money investment because breaking from the rail is often intimidating to first time starters, especially juveniles.  But her best-of-48 work followed by a best-of-87 bullet work, from the gate, was too much to overlook.  She broke sharply, went right to the front and wired the fielkd without ever being threatened. 

Unfortunately she was bet down from her program odds of 4/1 to 3/2 favoritism.  So my payoff was a little less than fifteen dollars, but hey - a win is a win!  In the last two races I missed with back-to-back favorites.  In the ninth, Andthebandplayedon took the lead into the stretch but lost a narrow head bobbing photo to finish second.  And in the finale Angelic Score faltered at minuscule 2/5 odds.  But, I was "pleased" that I didn't buy into her 4/5 program odds as she was plunging in class and it seemed like a red flag.  She SHOULD have been best, but I had my doubts. 

I started keeping track of my selection results and comparing them to Brian Spencer - who answered my email and is the Fair Grounds professional handicapper.  I will mention this often as I have the advantage of NOT having to bet each and every race so my percentages should be higher, and I know that I pick more to find THE winner, not the price play.  For the day I had two wins from seven picks, nearly 30% but far below my win percentage that has been consistently around 35% over the span of 20,000 races in my data base.  Brian also had two winners, from ten picks, but one of his was a $15 winner - congrats to him!  Racing continues on Thanksgiving Day!