Thanksgiving Week - Racing At The Fair Grounds
November 23 - 26
Kim and I were visiting family in Pennsylvania as the first full week of racing began at the Fair Grounds for the winter racing season. And the first day of the week that had racing was on Thanksgiving Day. The brief (for me) two and half days in Pennsylvania was delightful as we stayed with Kim's twin sister Karrie and her retired husband Randy. The weather was a brisk 20 degrees and Kim and I were able to sit outside on their porch under a heater for well over an hour one morning. We drove back to Ohio - where I'd been from Friday to Tuesday - and visited with my Mom, sister and niece. The highlight of that part of the trip was our dinner at the Spaghetti Warehouse....Kim and I both love that place!
Cheers To Another Great Trip/Adventure!
Thursday November 23
The first selection came in the second, a Maiden Claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs for juveniles. I liked Lougarou who was going for trainer Al Stall who sported a big 43% win average with maidens debuting for a tag, like this. Sent off at even money he pressed on the outside, took the lead turning for home and was nailed on the wire in a photo finish. Grrrrr. In the sixth I had a Fair Grounds 40% Club play in Killeen who was running in a turf route - a Brad Cox club angle (42% with all turf routers). He was listed at 6/1 in the program and left the gate at a big 8/1. He pressed in second all the way to the far turn and seemed in hand - I was feeling pretty good about my hitting a big score when he stopped and finished eighth of nine. The eighth was another turf route and another FG 40% Club play for Brad Cox's Adonis Creed. This one was the 6/5 favorite and he pressed to the far turn, took over and opened up. But through the long New Orleans stretch he couldn't hold off two closers and finished third. The featured event was the ninth, the Thanksgiving Day Handicap. The favorite was Yockey's Warrior and I thought he was a VERY legitimate favorite. His last four six furlong sprints had all produced victories; he was 3/2-0-1 over the New Orleans track; AND he was the defending champion of this stakes event. He let a 15/1 speedster slide over in front of him out of the gate then quickly moved up to press him on the outside for clear running. As they approached the far turn the rider had had enough of the longshot and blew by. As they turned for home Yockey's Warrior accelerated and widened his margin with every stride.
My triple investment returned nearly $30! Whoooo hooooo! It was a good way to close out my selections for the day :)
Friday November 24
Kim and I had debated for weeks about when to leave Erie and head to Ohio. Mid-afternoon on Thanksgiving we decided that we'd leave early evening so as to be in Ohio by 11 pm and that would allow us to wake up already there and spend the full day with my family. We headed out a little after 7 pm and arrived well before eleven making my Mom very happy! So I made my wagers early Friday morning and watched the replays later that evening. The third was a "prime time" play for me with Path of David looking like an easy "free bingo square" in the multi-race wagers. Of the 108 races showing in the past performances for this event ONE runner had earned a number above 80 on the Beyer scale. Conversely, Path of David showed ELEVEN Beyers of 82 or better. AND he had a best-of-32 bullet work for today. Made his move, stretch duel, PHOTO finish!
Second close photo loss of the week. Sigh.....The other three selections were two price plays and a favorite - none won. 10/1 ran 7th, 7/5 ran 5th, and 6/1 ran 9th.
Saturday November 25
On today's Fair Grounds card I found five selections from the ten races offered. After going 0-for yesterday I guess you could say I was "happy" that I got A winner today, but again disappointed that I couldn't manage to cash on the "best" of the day or on any more than a single play. That winner came in the sixth. We were on the inner turf course going a mile for two-year-old fillies in Maiden Special company. Pretty Lady was marooned on the far outside in post 11, but I still thought she was the pick. She had drawn a $550K bid at auction and after a sharp second in her debut she was entered in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine. She ran a good fifth but two out of that event had come right back to win. She came flying down the outside to be up in time. The meager even money odds meant I'd only cash for ten dollars on the single victory.
The BET of the Weekend came in the one and only race selection that was N-O-T from the Fair Grounds. I had read online that Pink Lloyd would be the favorite in Woodbine's Kennedy Road Stakes today. I am very familiar with this guy who was working on a 7-race winning streak, and I'd had him in several of those. The article mentioned that if he could win this afternoon and conclude the season a perfect 8-for-8 he might be a serious contender for Canadian Horse of the Year. He was sent off as the favorite and set a pressured pace through the far turn. So often, especially at Woodbine, front runners give way when asked for the stretch drive, but Pink Lloyd proved why he is a very special sprinter by drawing off to a decisive win!
Cashed for over $30 on the "prime time" play to close out the racing on Saturday.
Sunday November 26
The final day of the week was a ten race card and at first I was a little "concerned" as I had been trying very hard to only make wagering selections when I had a stronger than usual angle, and even then to be conservative with my wagers. But Saturday morning as I handicapped the Sunday card I found plays in each of the first four races. But the final six races were such toss-ups that I only named a preferred runner in two of them. The "best" of the day came in the Sunday opener, a maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. As I wrote in my analysis, which I have said on many occasions, "...you either are a believer in Beyer speed figures or you are not; and I am....." One of the strongest handicapping angles that is most consistent at pointing out winners is the "Double Beyer" advantage. Color Me Pretty had earned figures of 43 and 35 in her last two starts and those were a pole better than anything the others had run. In fact the most recent figures earned by those with experience were: 16, 0, 28, 0, 0. and 29. Still, I had two concerns.....first, the "Double Advantage" angle is LEAST effective with maidens or with lightly raced runners, and Color Me Pretty qualified on BOTH of these counts. Secondly, in her brief three year career she'd already run second twice. Hmmmm. But, like I said, either you are or you are not a Beyer believer. I doubled the bet. It was a most unusually run race as 'Pretty dueled on the inside (not the ideal spot) and as they entered the turn she fell back off the leader, and turning for home she was clearly second. Thoroughbreds are notoriously consistent that once passed they rarely come back to regain the lead, especially inexperienced horses, most especially maidens, and most especially of all a maiden who's already been "content" to run second. But......
Inside the final 16th Color Me Pretty found a new gear, surged and cleared off to win! Cashed for nearly $20 on the first play of the day and the only added money selection.
The other three selections failed to show much and all finished off the board. Not the best first week of racing, but I was "encouraged" that my numbers of 5-for-24 at the meet were a little better than professional analyst Brian Spencer's of 9-for-50 (granted he has to pick every race and I can be selective, but he gets paid and I don't!). I'll look forward to next week's racing and the opening of Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
The first selection came in the second, a Maiden Claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs for juveniles. I liked Lougarou who was going for trainer Al Stall who sported a big 43% win average with maidens debuting for a tag, like this. Sent off at even money he pressed on the outside, took the lead turning for home and was nailed on the wire in a photo finish. Grrrrr. In the sixth I had a Fair Grounds 40% Club play in Killeen who was running in a turf route - a Brad Cox club angle (42% with all turf routers). He was listed at 6/1 in the program and left the gate at a big 8/1. He pressed in second all the way to the far turn and seemed in hand - I was feeling pretty good about my hitting a big score when he stopped and finished eighth of nine. The eighth was another turf route and another FG 40% Club play for Brad Cox's Adonis Creed. This one was the 6/5 favorite and he pressed to the far turn, took over and opened up. But through the long New Orleans stretch he couldn't hold off two closers and finished third. The featured event was the ninth, the Thanksgiving Day Handicap. The favorite was Yockey's Warrior and I thought he was a VERY legitimate favorite. His last four six furlong sprints had all produced victories; he was 3/2-0-1 over the New Orleans track; AND he was the defending champion of this stakes event. He let a 15/1 speedster slide over in front of him out of the gate then quickly moved up to press him on the outside for clear running. As they approached the far turn the rider had had enough of the longshot and blew by. As they turned for home Yockey's Warrior accelerated and widened his margin with every stride.
My triple investment returned nearly $30! Whoooo hooooo! It was a good way to close out my selections for the day :)
Friday November 24
Kim and I had debated for weeks about when to leave Erie and head to Ohio. Mid-afternoon on Thanksgiving we decided that we'd leave early evening so as to be in Ohio by 11 pm and that would allow us to wake up already there and spend the full day with my family. We headed out a little after 7 pm and arrived well before eleven making my Mom very happy! So I made my wagers early Friday morning and watched the replays later that evening. The third was a "prime time" play for me with Path of David looking like an easy "free bingo square" in the multi-race wagers. Of the 108 races showing in the past performances for this event ONE runner had earned a number above 80 on the Beyer scale. Conversely, Path of David showed ELEVEN Beyers of 82 or better. AND he had a best-of-32 bullet work for today. Made his move, stretch duel, PHOTO finish!
Second close photo loss of the week. Sigh.....The other three selections were two price plays and a favorite - none won. 10/1 ran 7th, 7/5 ran 5th, and 6/1 ran 9th.
Saturday November 25
On today's Fair Grounds card I found five selections from the ten races offered. After going 0-for yesterday I guess you could say I was "happy" that I got A winner today, but again disappointed that I couldn't manage to cash on the "best" of the day or on any more than a single play. That winner came in the sixth. We were on the inner turf course going a mile for two-year-old fillies in Maiden Special company. Pretty Lady was marooned on the far outside in post 11, but I still thought she was the pick. She had drawn a $550K bid at auction and after a sharp second in her debut she was entered in the Grade 1 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine. She ran a good fifth but two out of that event had come right back to win. She came flying down the outside to be up in time. The meager even money odds meant I'd only cash for ten dollars on the single victory.
The BET of the Weekend came in the one and only race selection that was N-O-T from the Fair Grounds. I had read online that Pink Lloyd would be the favorite in Woodbine's Kennedy Road Stakes today. I am very familiar with this guy who was working on a 7-race winning streak, and I'd had him in several of those. The article mentioned that if he could win this afternoon and conclude the season a perfect 8-for-8 he might be a serious contender for Canadian Horse of the Year. He was sent off as the favorite and set a pressured pace through the far turn. So often, especially at Woodbine, front runners give way when asked for the stretch drive, but Pink Lloyd proved why he is a very special sprinter by drawing off to a decisive win!
Cashed for over $30 on the "prime time" play to close out the racing on Saturday.
Sunday November 26
The final day of the week was a ten race card and at first I was a little "concerned" as I had been trying very hard to only make wagering selections when I had a stronger than usual angle, and even then to be conservative with my wagers. But Saturday morning as I handicapped the Sunday card I found plays in each of the first four races. But the final six races were such toss-ups that I only named a preferred runner in two of them. The "best" of the day came in the Sunday opener, a maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. As I wrote in my analysis, which I have said on many occasions, "...you either are a believer in Beyer speed figures or you are not; and I am....." One of the strongest handicapping angles that is most consistent at pointing out winners is the "Double Beyer" advantage. Color Me Pretty had earned figures of 43 and 35 in her last two starts and those were a pole better than anything the others had run. In fact the most recent figures earned by those with experience were: 16, 0, 28, 0, 0. and 29. Still, I had two concerns.....first, the "Double Advantage" angle is LEAST effective with maidens or with lightly raced runners, and Color Me Pretty qualified on BOTH of these counts. Secondly, in her brief three year career she'd already run second twice. Hmmmm. But, like I said, either you are or you are not a Beyer believer. I doubled the bet. It was a most unusually run race as 'Pretty dueled on the inside (not the ideal spot) and as they entered the turn she fell back off the leader, and turning for home she was clearly second. Thoroughbreds are notoriously consistent that once passed they rarely come back to regain the lead, especially inexperienced horses, most especially maidens, and most especially of all a maiden who's already been "content" to run second. But......
Inside the final 16th Color Me Pretty found a new gear, surged and cleared off to win! Cashed for nearly $20 on the first play of the day and the only added money selection.
The other three selections failed to show much and all finished off the board. Not the best first week of racing, but I was "encouraged" that my numbers of 5-for-24 at the meet were a little better than professional analyst Brian Spencer's of 9-for-50 (granted he has to pick every race and I can be selective, but he gets paid and I don't!). I'll look forward to next week's racing and the opening of Gulfstream Park on Saturday.
Gulfstream Park Opening Day Promo
-the last five seconds are worth the wait!-
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