Saturday January 27
What a great, G-R-E-A-T day! I was so, SO very glad that I did not let the price of the tickets dissuade me like it did last year. Granted the prices were dropped this year, but let me tell you, to sit in the "cheap seats" - and I'd argue that our Florida Derby seats have the best view, even better than right on the finish line, but they are the least expensive grandstand ticket seats - was anything BUT cheap......
But I cannot explain to you, unless you are a true horse racing fan, just how cool it was to be RIGHT there watching them burst from the gate in the world's richest horse race, the $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup featuring Horse of the Year Gun Runner KNOWING that people from all over the world were watching and thinking, "Wouldn't that be cool to actually be there?" and WE WERE THERE! Keith and I left the house about 9:30 am (gates had opened at 9 am and first post was at 11:30 am) and we arrived at about 10:15 am. With our parking pass we drove right in, got the pass scanned and really parked fairly close to the facility, not far at all (maybe a row or two back) from where I'd typically park on a Saturday at the races. We got through security and I was surprised, but not really, to see that the entire shopping facility was blocked off with gates, and a LOT of security. The only drawback to this for me was that the area overlooking the paddock is where I like to do my video clips and it was inaccessible. We walked out to the rail and had the obligatory "Day at the Races" picture, and then because Keith had called in "sick" at school in Illinois I had him take a photo of just me for posting on social media........
Walked around and took in the flavor of the big day and then settled in about 11 am for handicapping and playing the races for the day. It's worthy of mentioning that I went back and forth about what to wear and finally decided on the compromise between "formal day at the races" attire and "casual day at the races attire" by wearing my Pegasus World Cup polo under a sports coat with a Pegasus pin. A couple of times when I saw some of the other fans all decked out in Derby-esque attire I had the thought that I'd wished I'd worn the more fancy outfit, but I was ok with it overall. You can see some of the styles in the photo shots at the bottom of the page. So the racing......
I'd put together a guide and analysis sheet for both of us and I had told Keith that one lesson he should try to follow that I'd made a lot, A LOT of money with this winter was if it's a maiden 3yo race in particular, but any race generally and there is a Todd Pletcher runner, especially with John Velazquez riding, you almost HAVE to make the bet. And as it turned out, in the opener that was the case. There were twelve races on the card today and eight of them were stakes. But four of the first five were maiden 3yo races and three of the four had a Pletcher entry. Well duh. The first was an overcrowded turf event going a mile and a sixteenth and Todd Pletcher's debuting colt Amertune had drawn the rail with John Velazquez. On the upside, he was a $300K son of champion Tapit and was bred to love the lawn. On the downside, especially in this big of a field there would be a real chance that anything but a sharp break - uncommon for a first time starter - and he could be left buried in the field. Still, as I've said many times, you're either ALL IN on Pletcher or you're not. Listed at 4/1 in the program he floated up to 5/1....then 6/1.....then 7/1.....and all I could think of was that if he were to win this, it would make for a great story! He broke ok, and was mid-pack while saving ground through the clubhouse turn. Johnny V got him within about half a dozen lengths while still on the rail to the far turn and then shifted into the clear as heads turned for home. As I turned my camera on to video the stretch run he didn't look to be in position to win, but then he hit a whole new gear and blew by to hit the front in the final 100 yards and edge clear. OH MY! And the post time price of 8/1 led to a $2 payout of $19.20! ON A TODD PLETCHER/JOHN VELAZQUEZ runner. Seriously?
I, as is almost always the case with a Pletcher Gulfstream runner, had doubled the bet so I'd be cashing for nearly $100. And this was so ironic because as the horses were in the post parade I was doing the math for the day. I'd made all of my bets before the first so I wouldn't have to worry about lines/missing some of the sights and sounds of the day. I'd had winning tickets from last Saturday and when I made all my bets I'd spent $145. So I knew if I could collect $150 for the day I'd be a winner. And BOOM in the FIRST RACE ALONE I cash for almost $100! What a way to start the day! But wait, the story of the first race is NOT over! I went downstairs and climbed half way up the staircase to the second level to film the video for the race. As I came down I saw this guy with credentials around his neck holding what looked like a lit-up halo on a pole and thought "wonder what that's all about?" Just as I drew along side of him he stopped three gentlemen and explained his role today. So I stopped to listen. Turns out he was taking the "Official Pegasus Selfie" photo and it was free AND they'd email it to you on the spot. I waited patiently while he took three shots for each of the three guys and then he turned to me and said, "Would you like one?" Absolutely I would! I asked if I could have the paddock in the background and I held up my winning ticket from the first race. He smiled and said, "Oh that's good!" Sent me the email and before I'd walked out to our seats I had it.......how great is this:
Just added to the many, many great stories of the day! I could hardly believe it when in the second race Pletcher's Takechargedelilah went off at 8/1 and was flying at the end.....oh, so close second! The third was the first stakes of the day and I was an even fourth at 5/1 with a minimum bet. The fourth race was the third Pletcher maiden 3yo and despite the day being filled with stakes action, a lot of it graded, AND the Grade 1 Pegasus having the Horse of the Year, this race, this maiden race was my BET of the Day! Life's A Parlay had debuted with what on the surface looked like an "ok" third here. But the fine print showed the $725K son of champion Uncle Mo had hit the gate at the start and broke awkwardly putting him near the very back. He'd recovered and rushed up into fifth but had to slam on the brakes when checked sharply and lost several lengths and momentum at the half mile pole. Still, he rallied strongly and finished a solid third. The DRF's Mike Welsch wrote in his analysis for today that he had to "....be on everyone's 'horses to watch list' after his effort on the compromising start and trip....." But to be fair, he also was in post THIRTEEN today. The only saving grace was that this was a one-turn mile with a long run from the gate to the far turn and John Velazquez figured to have ample time to get his colt into a winning position. I shouldn't have worried because as the gate latch sprung, Velazquez immediately cleared the field and was in front. An 8/1 longshot would NOT let him get away and they dueled into the stretch. Just when it looked like he might give in Velazquez let him roll and he opened up a daylight lead. He was beginning to tire in the final 100 yards but it was too late, he had scored as much the best!
My $30 WIN ticket allowed me to cash for another $60 and suddenly after four races, with just two wins I'd collected $156 and I'm guaranteed to be a winner on the day! WOW!
I was second in the fifth, the last of the maiden races on a Shug McGaughey runner. I was a good third in the Ladies' Turf Sprint at a big 10/1 on another Pletcher runner and then it was time for the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. As soon as I saw the entries for this one-turn mile graded stakes I KNEW who the bet would be without any handicapping. And it's one of the advantages of being a frequent handicapper, especially at Gulfstream. While I will admit that one angle I follow nearly without fail is the Todd Pletcher angle here, sometimes there are races where his horse is the pick because of handicapping, not simply "you can't go wrong" with him. Such was the case here. Last winter I won this very race with Pletcher's Tommy Macho. And THAT day I'd liked him because he was a "horse for the course" that always did his best running here, and at this one turn mile. Again, I knew he'd be the pick based on that fact. I didn't need any confirmation of it, but since that win last winter he'd been facing far, FAR tougher - the best miler in the world in the Grade 1 Cigar, Sharp Azteca; the biggest speed figure on dirt prior to the Breeders' Cup in the Grade 1 Met Mile, Mor Spirit; the winner of the Group 2 $2 Million Dubai Golden Shaheen, Mind Your Biscuits and Drefrong, the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint. ANY of those guys would have been 1/9 prohibitive favorites here today. Tommy Macho had been competitive with all of them AND had a sharp bullet work for today. Regular pilot Luis Saez, the leading jockey who's been red-hot as of late (SEVEN wins on Wednesday) had the mount. Saez pressed the leader three wide into the turn, edged to the front and opened up to be a daylight winner!
I had doubled the bet so I cashed for over $30 on my THIRD win of the day - and this was, again, just bonus profit money thanks to the first two victories! I was 4th at 7/2 odds in the Grade 3 WL McKnight going a mile and a half on the turf when Gold Shield was three-wide the entire trip. Right after that it was time for the second of two Laurel stakes events I'd played, the Native Dancer going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. If you were willing to look at Afleet Willy's last race as simply a prep, you could draw a line through it and he'd be the obvious choice. That last race had been a six furlong stakes and he'd been coming off a layoff. Today's two-turn event fit his profile as in his last six starts at a mile or longer he'd won FIVE and was a photo-finish 2nd to a multiple graded stakes winner. He was the betting favorite but took a lot of late money to drop down to even money. Right to the front, wasn't asked until the stretch and drew off by easily a pole or more!
I tripled the bet so I'd cash for another $30! My "Upset Special" was in Gulfstream's 9th, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie going seven furlongs. First, I've NEVER liked Curlin's Approval who figured to be the odds-on choice. I have ALWAYS thought she was overrated, and while she did beat me once, I'd also seen her go down as the even money favorite last time out running 2nd to a Chad Brown layoff horse; 5th at 3/5 last winter and a beaten 1-2 favorite last year in the Gr 3 Rampart when I beat her with a Todd Pletcher $15 winner. I liked Southern California invader Marley's Freedom who had Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith for trainer Bob Hess. That this was his ONLY horse to run here for the weekend added to the appeal, as did the 10/1 program odds. She was bet down to 3/1 but lost all chance when completely missing the break - checked in 6th. The tenth at Gulfstream was the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint and it featured the world record holder at the distance Pay Any Price who was my BET of the Day on Opening Day and I'd cashed again when he was my BEST in Tampa's Turf Sprint. But today it looked like there was a ton of speed to set it up for a closer and I went with one of my "old friends," Rainbow Heir who ran for trainer Jason Servis. Didn't hurt the cause that Servis specializes in turf sprinters! Rainbow Heir was as effective on dirt as turf, and had in fact won the Wolf Hill at Monmouth for me in back-to-back years when that race was rained off the grass BOTH times! Handled patiently by jockey Irad Ortiz behind blazing early splits, Rainbow Heir swung out four wide into the stretch and just blew by to win going away!
The $8.60 payoff meant I'd cash for over $40 on my FOURTH big win of the day! The last stakes before the "Main Event" was the South Beach Stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Last year on Florida Derby Day, Grade 1 Celestine had been my BET of the Day in the one mile Grade 2 Honey Fox, and she'd won easily under rider Jose Ortiz. She'd been off form since, but she looked to be working sharply and the drop into this listed event was just what the doctor ordered. I hesitated briefly because she's won for me loose on the lead and post eleven did her no favors, especially with other speed to the inside. But she had won pressing the pace and so I trusted Ortiz. He rated her patiently after getting over to save ground and burst to the front at the furlong marker in mid-stretch, but in the final 100 yards she was caught by her deep-closing stablemate who was the second choice, second.
Now it was time for the featured Grade 1 $16 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational! You could feel the electricity in the air and it was a packed house who was anxious to see if Horse of the Year could make his final start before retirement a repeat, or dare we consider an improvement over his tour-de-force win in the $6 Million Breeders' Cup Classic two months ago. Before the post position draw I'd thought he'd be easily the BET of the Day. Then a couple weeks ago I read an article which quoted an opposing trainer who said when asked why he challenge Gun Runner, "For $16 Million I'm willing to give it a shot because, what if he draws the outside post - then he's vulnerable!" And the statistics bore this out - since Gulfstream was re-figured eight years ago there have been 228 races run around two turns at a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth, today's distance. From those 228 races, posts 9-and-out had produced ten winners, that's a 4% win average. Then I read that Gun Runner's trainer Steve Asmussen had said that "....all year long we'd pointed for the Breeders' Cup Classic...." - so would he be in prime time condition with this "add on" race (hard to believe that a $16 Million race would be an "afterthought!"). I went back and forth with my thinking and finally determined I'd have to handicap the race like any other. As soon as I scanned the past performances I knew.....of the 168 races run by his eleven rivals NONE had run a speed figure good enough to beat his last two! The "Double Beyer Advantage" handicapping angle is one of the most reliable angles in any race, regardless of distance or class level. The ONLY two who could challenge were Sharp Azteca who's only chance was to be loose on the lead, which wouldn't happen AND he'd never get the nine furlongs today as he's strictly a miler. And then Bob Baffert's Collected had a Beyer that would challenge, but he'd earned that when second, three lengths behind GUN RUNNER in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and he would be dueling with Sharp Azteca it appeared. As I told several people, the only way Gun Runner loses is if he just doesn't run his race. The fact that they'd pointed for the BC all year was my lone concern and the only thing that kept him from being my BET of the Day. So I listed him in my analysis as the definitive choice with a prime time play......
But then the day before the Pegasus I got an email with the above promotion. I know it's a horse race and anything can happen, but in his ENTIRE CAREER Gun Runner has NEVER failed to hit the board. So with the "Get Your Money Back" promotion I could double my own $20 WIN bet and if he did win, which I truly believed he would, I'd have a $40 WIN ticket on him with the guarantee that if he did not win, I really only had a $20 investment in the race. A no-brainer I thought. The crowd exploded as the gates opened and immediately I was 99% sure I had the winner and that it would be one of the most exciting moments I'd ever witnessed in racing. Why? First, Sharp Azteca did NOT get to the front and second, jockey Florent Geroux shot Gun Runner out of the gate and he was easily third, only two wide into the first turn. He glided up easily to front-running Collected as they turned into the backstretch and it became a replay of the Breeders' Cup Classic. No one is catching him with this trip and he won't be outrun by this guy I thought! On the turn he glided to the lead, dueled briefly when West Coast - the other Baffert runner - made his move, then when Geroux asked he ran away to the thunderous roar of the standing-room only crowd. Gave me goose-bumps and you can feel that excitement when you listen to me cheer on the video as he came home. TRULY a memorable moment!
I'd be remiss if I did not mention that sitting on the other side of me all day was the nicest lady, Kathy, who'd flown down from Indiana just to see the race and we enjoyed swapping racing stories and handicapping thoughts all day; and just past her another local couple who became my second and third "new best friends" of the day. We all celebrated our wins together and gave condolences for the losses. Made the day even more memorable! Keith and I left and surprisingly the traffic was no issue what so ever. Keith had had a big day, and profited enough to pay for his rental car and his ticket (which I did not expect as I'd promised him he only had to pay $50 if he wanted to go - thanks buddy!). I'd won five-of-twelve on the day and over $150 in profits at Gulfstream. And good for my ego, I'd been tracking the three professional handicappers all day......
That's right, who's the pro! When we got home Kim had cooked steaks and baked potatoes for us to enjoy as our celebratory dinner! Delicious! I had one last play from Santa Anita where it had been their "Sunshine Millions/Cal Cup Day" card. It was the nine furlong turf event, the Unusual Heat Turf Classic and I went with Rye who would have a solid pace to close into. He was the LONE multiple winner at this nine furlong distance and the barn was winning at a big 55%. At the top of the lane he looked to be too far back AND too much traffic to negotiate but he found a way through and split horses in the shadow of the wire to be just up in time in a photo finish!
Cashed for $30 on my last bet of the day to close the day 7-for-18, that's 39% and a profit of $136 overall. Be sure to scroll down to the photos of the day below the highlight video....what a day!
But I cannot explain to you, unless you are a true horse racing fan, just how cool it was to be RIGHT there watching them burst from the gate in the world's richest horse race, the $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup featuring Horse of the Year Gun Runner KNOWING that people from all over the world were watching and thinking, "Wouldn't that be cool to actually be there?" and WE WERE THERE! Keith and I left the house about 9:30 am (gates had opened at 9 am and first post was at 11:30 am) and we arrived at about 10:15 am. With our parking pass we drove right in, got the pass scanned and really parked fairly close to the facility, not far at all (maybe a row or two back) from where I'd typically park on a Saturday at the races. We got through security and I was surprised, but not really, to see that the entire shopping facility was blocked off with gates, and a LOT of security. The only drawback to this for me was that the area overlooking the paddock is where I like to do my video clips and it was inaccessible. We walked out to the rail and had the obligatory "Day at the Races" picture, and then because Keith had called in "sick" at school in Illinois I had him take a photo of just me for posting on social media........
I'd put together a guide and analysis sheet for both of us and I had told Keith that one lesson he should try to follow that I'd made a lot, A LOT of money with this winter was if it's a maiden 3yo race in particular, but any race generally and there is a Todd Pletcher runner, especially with John Velazquez riding, you almost HAVE to make the bet. And as it turned out, in the opener that was the case. There were twelve races on the card today and eight of them were stakes. But four of the first five were maiden 3yo races and three of the four had a Pletcher entry. Well duh. The first was an overcrowded turf event going a mile and a sixteenth and Todd Pletcher's debuting colt Amertune had drawn the rail with John Velazquez. On the upside, he was a $300K son of champion Tapit and was bred to love the lawn. On the downside, especially in this big of a field there would be a real chance that anything but a sharp break - uncommon for a first time starter - and he could be left buried in the field. Still, as I've said many times, you're either ALL IN on Pletcher or you're not. Listed at 4/1 in the program he floated up to 5/1....then 6/1.....then 7/1.....and all I could think of was that if he were to win this, it would make for a great story! He broke ok, and was mid-pack while saving ground through the clubhouse turn. Johnny V got him within about half a dozen lengths while still on the rail to the far turn and then shifted into the clear as heads turned for home. As I turned my camera on to video the stretch run he didn't look to be in position to win, but then he hit a whole new gear and blew by to hit the front in the final 100 yards and edge clear. OH MY! And the post time price of 8/1 led to a $2 payout of $19.20! ON A TODD PLETCHER/JOHN VELAZQUEZ runner. Seriously?
I, as is almost always the case with a Pletcher Gulfstream runner, had doubled the bet so I'd be cashing for nearly $100. And this was so ironic because as the horses were in the post parade I was doing the math for the day. I'd made all of my bets before the first so I wouldn't have to worry about lines/missing some of the sights and sounds of the day. I'd had winning tickets from last Saturday and when I made all my bets I'd spent $145. So I knew if I could collect $150 for the day I'd be a winner. And BOOM in the FIRST RACE ALONE I cash for almost $100! What a way to start the day! But wait, the story of the first race is NOT over! I went downstairs and climbed half way up the staircase to the second level to film the video for the race. As I came down I saw this guy with credentials around his neck holding what looked like a lit-up halo on a pole and thought "wonder what that's all about?" Just as I drew along side of him he stopped three gentlemen and explained his role today. So I stopped to listen. Turns out he was taking the "Official Pegasus Selfie" photo and it was free AND they'd email it to you on the spot. I waited patiently while he took three shots for each of the three guys and then he turned to me and said, "Would you like one?" Absolutely I would! I asked if I could have the paddock in the background and I held up my winning ticket from the first race. He smiled and said, "Oh that's good!" Sent me the email and before I'd walked out to our seats I had it.......how great is this:
Just added to the many, many great stories of the day! I could hardly believe it when in the second race Pletcher's Takechargedelilah went off at 8/1 and was flying at the end.....oh, so close second! The third was the first stakes of the day and I was an even fourth at 5/1 with a minimum bet. The fourth race was the third Pletcher maiden 3yo and despite the day being filled with stakes action, a lot of it graded, AND the Grade 1 Pegasus having the Horse of the Year, this race, this maiden race was my BET of the Day! Life's A Parlay had debuted with what on the surface looked like an "ok" third here. But the fine print showed the $725K son of champion Uncle Mo had hit the gate at the start and broke awkwardly putting him near the very back. He'd recovered and rushed up into fifth but had to slam on the brakes when checked sharply and lost several lengths and momentum at the half mile pole. Still, he rallied strongly and finished a solid third. The DRF's Mike Welsch wrote in his analysis for today that he had to "....be on everyone's 'horses to watch list' after his effort on the compromising start and trip....." But to be fair, he also was in post THIRTEEN today. The only saving grace was that this was a one-turn mile with a long run from the gate to the far turn and John Velazquez figured to have ample time to get his colt into a winning position. I shouldn't have worried because as the gate latch sprung, Velazquez immediately cleared the field and was in front. An 8/1 longshot would NOT let him get away and they dueled into the stretch. Just when it looked like he might give in Velazquez let him roll and he opened up a daylight lead. He was beginning to tire in the final 100 yards but it was too late, he had scored as much the best!
My $30 WIN ticket allowed me to cash for another $60 and suddenly after four races, with just two wins I'd collected $156 and I'm guaranteed to be a winner on the day! WOW!
I was second in the fifth, the last of the maiden races on a Shug McGaughey runner. I was a good third in the Ladies' Turf Sprint at a big 10/1 on another Pletcher runner and then it was time for the Grade 3 Fred Hooper. As soon as I saw the entries for this one-turn mile graded stakes I KNEW who the bet would be without any handicapping. And it's one of the advantages of being a frequent handicapper, especially at Gulfstream. While I will admit that one angle I follow nearly without fail is the Todd Pletcher angle here, sometimes there are races where his horse is the pick because of handicapping, not simply "you can't go wrong" with him. Such was the case here. Last winter I won this very race with Pletcher's Tommy Macho. And THAT day I'd liked him because he was a "horse for the course" that always did his best running here, and at this one turn mile. Again, I knew he'd be the pick based on that fact. I didn't need any confirmation of it, but since that win last winter he'd been facing far, FAR tougher - the best miler in the world in the Grade 1 Cigar, Sharp Azteca; the biggest speed figure on dirt prior to the Breeders' Cup in the Grade 1 Met Mile, Mor Spirit; the winner of the Group 2 $2 Million Dubai Golden Shaheen, Mind Your Biscuits and Drefrong, the winner of the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Sprint. ANY of those guys would have been 1/9 prohibitive favorites here today. Tommy Macho had been competitive with all of them AND had a sharp bullet work for today. Regular pilot Luis Saez, the leading jockey who's been red-hot as of late (SEVEN wins on Wednesday) had the mount. Saez pressed the leader three wide into the turn, edged to the front and opened up to be a daylight winner!
I had doubled the bet so I cashed for over $30 on my THIRD win of the day - and this was, again, just bonus profit money thanks to the first two victories! I was 4th at 7/2 odds in the Grade 3 WL McKnight going a mile and a half on the turf when Gold Shield was three-wide the entire trip. Right after that it was time for the second of two Laurel stakes events I'd played, the Native Dancer going a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. If you were willing to look at Afleet Willy's last race as simply a prep, you could draw a line through it and he'd be the obvious choice. That last race had been a six furlong stakes and he'd been coming off a layoff. Today's two-turn event fit his profile as in his last six starts at a mile or longer he'd won FIVE and was a photo-finish 2nd to a multiple graded stakes winner. He was the betting favorite but took a lot of late money to drop down to even money. Right to the front, wasn't asked until the stretch and drew off by easily a pole or more!
I tripled the bet so I'd cash for another $30! My "Upset Special" was in Gulfstream's 9th, the Grade 3 Hurricane Bertie going seven furlongs. First, I've NEVER liked Curlin's Approval who figured to be the odds-on choice. I have ALWAYS thought she was overrated, and while she did beat me once, I'd also seen her go down as the even money favorite last time out running 2nd to a Chad Brown layoff horse; 5th at 3/5 last winter and a beaten 1-2 favorite last year in the Gr 3 Rampart when I beat her with a Todd Pletcher $15 winner. I liked Southern California invader Marley's Freedom who had Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith for trainer Bob Hess. That this was his ONLY horse to run here for the weekend added to the appeal, as did the 10/1 program odds. She was bet down to 3/1 but lost all chance when completely missing the break - checked in 6th. The tenth at Gulfstream was the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint and it featured the world record holder at the distance Pay Any Price who was my BET of the Day on Opening Day and I'd cashed again when he was my BEST in Tampa's Turf Sprint. But today it looked like there was a ton of speed to set it up for a closer and I went with one of my "old friends," Rainbow Heir who ran for trainer Jason Servis. Didn't hurt the cause that Servis specializes in turf sprinters! Rainbow Heir was as effective on dirt as turf, and had in fact won the Wolf Hill at Monmouth for me in back-to-back years when that race was rained off the grass BOTH times! Handled patiently by jockey Irad Ortiz behind blazing early splits, Rainbow Heir swung out four wide into the stretch and just blew by to win going away!
The $8.60 payoff meant I'd cash for over $40 on my FOURTH big win of the day! The last stakes before the "Main Event" was the South Beach Stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Last year on Florida Derby Day, Grade 1 Celestine had been my BET of the Day in the one mile Grade 2 Honey Fox, and she'd won easily under rider Jose Ortiz. She'd been off form since, but she looked to be working sharply and the drop into this listed event was just what the doctor ordered. I hesitated briefly because she's won for me loose on the lead and post eleven did her no favors, especially with other speed to the inside. But she had won pressing the pace and so I trusted Ortiz. He rated her patiently after getting over to save ground and burst to the front at the furlong marker in mid-stretch, but in the final 100 yards she was caught by her deep-closing stablemate who was the second choice, second.
Now it was time for the featured Grade 1 $16 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational! You could feel the electricity in the air and it was a packed house who was anxious to see if Horse of the Year could make his final start before retirement a repeat, or dare we consider an improvement over his tour-de-force win in the $6 Million Breeders' Cup Classic two months ago. Before the post position draw I'd thought he'd be easily the BET of the Day. Then a couple weeks ago I read an article which quoted an opposing trainer who said when asked why he challenge Gun Runner, "For $16 Million I'm willing to give it a shot because, what if he draws the outside post - then he's vulnerable!" And the statistics bore this out - since Gulfstream was re-figured eight years ago there have been 228 races run around two turns at a mile and a sixteenth or a mile and an eighth, today's distance. From those 228 races, posts 9-and-out had produced ten winners, that's a 4% win average. Then I read that Gun Runner's trainer Steve Asmussen had said that "....all year long we'd pointed for the Breeders' Cup Classic...." - so would he be in prime time condition with this "add on" race (hard to believe that a $16 Million race would be an "afterthought!"). I went back and forth with my thinking and finally determined I'd have to handicap the race like any other. As soon as I scanned the past performances I knew.....of the 168 races run by his eleven rivals NONE had run a speed figure good enough to beat his last two! The "Double Beyer Advantage" handicapping angle is one of the most reliable angles in any race, regardless of distance or class level. The ONLY two who could challenge were Sharp Azteca who's only chance was to be loose on the lead, which wouldn't happen AND he'd never get the nine furlongs today as he's strictly a miler. And then Bob Baffert's Collected had a Beyer that would challenge, but he'd earned that when second, three lengths behind GUN RUNNER in the Breeders' Cup Classic, and he would be dueling with Sharp Azteca it appeared. As I told several people, the only way Gun Runner loses is if he just doesn't run his race. The fact that they'd pointed for the BC all year was my lone concern and the only thing that kept him from being my BET of the Day. So I listed him in my analysis as the definitive choice with a prime time play......
But then the day before the Pegasus I got an email with the above promotion. I know it's a horse race and anything can happen, but in his ENTIRE CAREER Gun Runner has NEVER failed to hit the board. So with the "Get Your Money Back" promotion I could double my own $20 WIN bet and if he did win, which I truly believed he would, I'd have a $40 WIN ticket on him with the guarantee that if he did not win, I really only had a $20 investment in the race. A no-brainer I thought. The crowd exploded as the gates opened and immediately I was 99% sure I had the winner and that it would be one of the most exciting moments I'd ever witnessed in racing. Why? First, Sharp Azteca did NOT get to the front and second, jockey Florent Geroux shot Gun Runner out of the gate and he was easily third, only two wide into the first turn. He glided up easily to front-running Collected as they turned into the backstretch and it became a replay of the Breeders' Cup Classic. No one is catching him with this trip and he won't be outrun by this guy I thought! On the turn he glided to the lead, dueled briefly when West Coast - the other Baffert runner - made his move, then when Geroux asked he ran away to the thunderous roar of the standing-room only crowd. Gave me goose-bumps and you can feel that excitement when you listen to me cheer on the video as he came home. TRULY a memorable moment!
I'd be remiss if I did not mention that sitting on the other side of me all day was the nicest lady, Kathy, who'd flown down from Indiana just to see the race and we enjoyed swapping racing stories and handicapping thoughts all day; and just past her another local couple who became my second and third "new best friends" of the day. We all celebrated our wins together and gave condolences for the losses. Made the day even more memorable! Keith and I left and surprisingly the traffic was no issue what so ever. Keith had had a big day, and profited enough to pay for his rental car and his ticket (which I did not expect as I'd promised him he only had to pay $50 if he wanted to go - thanks buddy!). I'd won five-of-twelve on the day and over $150 in profits at Gulfstream. And good for my ego, I'd been tracking the three professional handicappers all day......
That's right, who's the pro! When we got home Kim had cooked steaks and baked potatoes for us to enjoy as our celebratory dinner! Delicious! I had one last play from Santa Anita where it had been their "Sunshine Millions/Cal Cup Day" card. It was the nine furlong turf event, the Unusual Heat Turf Classic and I went with Rye who would have a solid pace to close into. He was the LONE multiple winner at this nine furlong distance and the barn was winning at a big 55%. At the top of the lane he looked to be too far back AND too much traffic to negotiate but he found a way through and split horses in the shadow of the wire to be just up in time in a photo finish!
Cashed for $30 on my last bet of the day to close the day 7-for-18, that's 39% and a profit of $136 overall. Be sure to scroll down to the photos of the day below the highlight video....what a day!
Pegasus World Cup Highlights
Snapshots from Pegasus Day 2018
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