January 24 - 28
Pegasus World Cup Week
Wednesday January 24
One of the biggest racing weeks of the season, and literally of the year began on Wednesday as Gulfstream Park readied for hosting the "World's Richest Race" - the Grade 1 $16 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Saturday. My first selection of the week was in a maiden claimer where Somwhatoptimistic had been claimed off a troubled debut and looked to be a good price. Dueled on the lead into the stretch at a big 8/1 price before weakening late to finish 3rd. What's Inside left the gate at 5/2 in the sixth, a starter optional claiming sprint for sophomores. Handled patiently just off the leaders and looked to be perfectly positioned, but when top rider Luis Saez let him go he got to the leader, but could not hold off the finish of the 12/1 upset winner - second. The seventh was a non-winners of three lifetime event on the turf and I thought Appa was a generous price to be listed at 6/1. You had to look carefully, but if you did you'd notice that CLEARLY his best speed figures were earned over this course last winter (75-78-79) and his record was 6/0-0-2 everywhere else, but a strong 5/2-1-1 here. Top rider Saez was on and if Appa ran back to last winter's numbers, he was your winner. Stalked the speed into the far turn then took over and drew off. While he was the post time favorite, it was still a more-than-fair price of better than 2/1 and I cashed for well over $30!
In the eighth it was a maiden claimer for older runners, and as I wrote.....normally you'd be leery of a maiden who'd not been out since 2016, but this WAS the Championship Meet at Gulfstream and the trainer of Emporer John WAS Todd Pletcher. He'd faced the eventual Gr 2 Swale winner in his "most recent" start and with Pletcher's numbers here, with layoff runners I made him the pick. I upped the bet when I made the actual wager and he was a DECISIVE winner, drawing off by a widening seven plus lengths through the stretch. Considering everything I thought 4/5 was more than generous on him.
My final bet was in the last race with a Chad Brown turf runner. Jockey Irad Ortiz is generally one of the best riders on the turf but he kept Culture Carrier inside all the way and was trapped until mid-stretch and by then the winner was long gone, fortunate to get 3rd as the 9/5 favorite.
Thursday January 25
After running second with my first selection I had three third place finishes and a fifth - not a day I care to remember to be honest.
Friday January 26
It's Pegasus Eve and I worked quite a while on preparing a program for Keith and I - who had flown down for the weekend - while providing detailed analysis on all twelve races at Gulfstream, as well as a few stakes from both Laurel and Santa Anita. But, I also had picks today. Was hoping that today I'd have a bounce-back effort off the 0-for day yesterday and build some momentum for the big day! The third was a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds and there was not a Todd Pletcher runner, but it was my BEST of the Day! I have a "rule" that with maidens, unless there are some exceptional reasons, once a runner has had six chances and they are still winless I won't play them. But, Galileo's Affair was one of those which I'd make an exception on. Of his six starts two were miserable efforts on the turf, toss......one of the other four was a two-turn affair in a $400K stakes - yes, as a maiden - an obvious toss. That left three dirt, sprint starts. He'd been beaten only 1 1/4, 1 3/4, and a length in those starts, but more importantly his Beyer figures in his last two - 56 & 50 - wouldn't make him a threat to win a Breeders' Cup race, but the last race figure of his "rivals today were: -0, 22, 32, 15, 37, and 33. Looked M-U-C-H the best on paper. Sat mid-pack to the far turn and then without being asked just BLEW by the field to draw off by a widening pole or more while under wraps and geared down.
Didn't pay much, but it's all about being right my friend! In the eighth I had 13/1 Ekhlaas who ran a credible fourth and briefly, oh-so-briefly on the turn I thought maybe.......EVERYBODY, including me like Purely Boy in the 9th on the turf. Too late, third. The tenth was a race I was very interested in. Why? Because the top choice was a Todd Pletcher horse, No Sweat, who I'd bet a little over two weeks ago. That day he was entered in a turf event, but the forecast was for rain. I reasoned that day that if this Todd Pletcher colt got to run in a 7 furlong dirt sprint instead of a two-turn turf event he'd be tough to handle. It all happened but he was a non-threatening third. Several horses had exited races where they'd faced him and I used him as a negative gauge. But today he was going two turns on the main track - AND, after all it was Todd Pletcher and top jockey Luis Saez. A completely different animal today as No Sweat drew off to a decisive score.
The last race of the day I thought I might have something BIG and it was all because of one of my favorite and oh-so-cute former students, Christie Shade. The finale was a maiden race where seven with experience had been beaten a combined 114 lengths. The only one with experience who had "decent" form was coming off a second place finish, but he'd been second three times, had already lost six times and had a 3-for-59 rider. Meanwhile Pretty Shea D - note the play on words, and her screen name is Sea Shadey.....had to be the one right? And this filly was trained by Jason Servis who wins with 38% of his first time maiden claimers. Went off at a huge 8/1 and came to that one runner who'd been second, again, on the turn. I KNEW she'd go right by and the favorite would be content to run second, again. But not today. She held on to win and I was second best. Oh, so close for my pretty Christie Shade!
Saturday January 27: Pegasus World Cup Day
What a fabulous day! Click HERE to read the separate journal on the BIG day!
Sunday January 28
I DO say this frequently, but again, what a great story to go along with the chronicles of the racing day! So many times, especially at this time of the year I have a big day, like yesterday and some of the "glow" of the big day is dulled by a less than productive Sunday of handicapping. And I cannot emphasize how very, VERY cool it was to be at the races to be there IN PERSON at an event that people from literally all over the world were saying, "I wish I were there!" I began thinking before I went to bed and then all night - literally because I slept very little (go figure) - I debated about just passing on Sunday and starting the new week Wednesday. But each time I came close to making that decision I thought about how I HAD already handicapped and I also had five stakes races from Sam Houston Park on my agenda. Finally about mid-morning I decided I'd just go ahead and play the races, but I wouldn't spend the time watching. That way if it was a less than successful day I'd only have the brief half hour or so of watching replays to "dull" the Saturday glow. So I put my wagers in and was getting ready to watch the NHL All-Star game when I got a text from my buddy Jim Anderson in Minnesota (who often plays the races and uses my picks) and the text read, "You're still on fire!" So I replied, "Sometimes they just jump off the page :)" but now I HAVE to go check, right? In the Sunday opener it was a claiming event on the turf for a $16K price tag. Six of the eight in here had already lost for this tag and one of the two class droppers was coming out of a $25K spot but was based in Woodbine and those just don't run well here. The other class dropper was very intriguing - Shezaprado. First it was interesting that she was based at the Fair Grounds and was brought here by Michael Maker who has a string of horses in both places. Certainly there are turf races in New Orleans to run in. Secondly, both her maiden win and her first win against winners had identical patterns - dropped in class from a $50K race into a $16K spot and won. What was happening today? Dropping out of a $30K race and dropping in for $16K (and the ship in). Just too much to ignore. Mid-pack into the stretch then was cut loose and she ran by the field with ease. And the best part - she was a healthy $9 winner so I cashed for well over $25!
In the second it was a 3yo maiden claiming event - yes, there was a Todd Pletcher runner taking the "Pletcher Plunge" as the DRF coined it a week or so ago. Huyanda debuted in a MSW two-turn turf event and was basically eased under the wire. Today she plunges to the $25K level and goes turf to dirt and gets top rider Saez. Even better was the fact that the top two rivals were an 0-for-8 Woodbine based maiden and another who'd been beaten by that invader. Why I didn't bet more I can't say, other than I was thinking about it being the Sunday after Pegasus Saturday. Pressed to the stretch and then took as as TONS the best.
After passing the 3rd, 4th, and 5th I was on board with Barbados Kitten in the 6th, a maiden claiming event on the turf. This one was a sharp second when first off the claim for Saffie Joseph who's produced several winners off the claim. The runner-up finish was enhanced when noting that she was checked sharply in the stretch. A clean trip today and she's your winner. Ironic that Jose Ortiz was replaced by Irad Ortiz today - awkward. Sent right to the front she wasn't asked until spinning out of the turn, and then a shake of the reins and the margin lengthened with each and every stride, the easiest kind of winner. My THIRD WIN in a row to start the day......Jim was right, I AM still on fire!
The next pick was the first of five stakes races on the Sam Houston "Houston Racing Festival" card, the Groovy Stakes - a six furlong sprint for 3yo. Direct Dial went for Steve Asmussen - fresh off training Gun Runner to win the Pegasus Cup yesterday - and this one was the prohibitive even money favorite. But when he forged to the lead at the top of the lane a 44/1 longshot just blew by like he was standing still - second. The sixth at Sam Houston was the Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint and the classy veteran Hogy stood out like a sore thumb. Yes, it had been a while since his last win, but of the 216 combined starts by his rivals today only TWO races would be competitive with ONE of his LAST EIGHT starts! A winner of over a million dollars he was the clear class of the field. BUT in a five furlong turf sprint like this with a full field of eleven it would be all about pace and racing luck for a deep closer like him. Honestly, watching the race it was like it had been scripted as he saved ground into the far turn and when asked to run he hugged the rail while one after another moved off the rail to open up a path into the stretch. Ortiz shifted him outside of the one remaining challenger then head dead aim on the leader and blew by without ever taking a deep breath. WHOOO HOOOO my first stakes win in Texas!
The ninth at Gulfstream was a maiden claimer and I liked the upset candidate, Attorney Al who was listed at 12/1 in the DRF morning line. Second time Jorge Navarro with an apprentice rider up while dropping to the bottom of the claiming barrel you could bet this one would be on a "go as fast as you can as far as you can" mission. Pressed the pace and held gamely to be a sharp third at nearly 9/1. Next up was the Barra Lass for 3yo fillies at Sam Houston. Only two figures were even in the same zip code as the two earned by odds-on filly She's Pretty Lucky. And the bettors noted that sending her off as a prohibitive 1/9 favorite....an even third! WOW. As I mentioned at the beginning of today's journal, I'd hesitated to play today. And when I did I "compromised" by thinking I'd bet and watch them all in replays. But that had not worked out and I was watching the streaming live feed from both tracks. The other compromise I made was that with my BEST of the Day in this upcoming 8th, the Grade 3 John Connally going a mile and a half on the turf with defending champion Bigger Picture was to cut the bet from a big $30 win bet down to $20. When the betting was going on and he was the 5/2 second choice I looked at who was taking all the money and at the multi-race wagers. Neither supported anyone but Bigger Picture who was a Grade 1 winner and was exiting the Breeders' Cup Turf. He got a good trip, made his move on the turn and vaulted to the lead. The other favorite who'd taken all the early money came running, but too little, too late! My second stakes in Houston and my fifth winner of the day.
The prime time play resulted in a return of nearly $40 and I was home free with a profit for the day regardless of what happened in the final two races on my selection sheet. The 11th was one of the best price plays of the day as it turned out, and an example of good handicapping and gambling. If you were willing to focus on the debut win for Storymeister then this filly was a standout in this starter optional claiming sprint for three-year-olds. The concern for some was her big Beyer dropped significantly in her first try off that win. But, and I wrote it was "sketchy" reasoning, but that had come at Gulfstream Park West which has a far more sandy track and that COULD have been a reason. But it was also significant that the the winner had been SEVEN clear of the runner-up AND had since come right back to win; the runner-up was four clear of Storymeister and she was another five clear of the field. When the top finishers are that spread out it's often indicative of a strong race. Apparently not a lot of people took note of that because Storymeister went right to the front and the farther they went the wider the margin. Under wraps past the wire she was a decisive winner and the price.....
Oh yeah baby, a big 3/1 price and paid $8.40 meaning I'd be cashing for over $40! WHOOOO HOOOO! The last race on the sheet was the Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic and my pick came roaring from the back to stick her neck in front with a sixteenth to go but was out-head-bobbed on the wire to be second in a photo. So for the day a BIG 6-for-10 day with a profit of just fifty cents short of fifty dollars! So, SO very glad I played today!
One of the biggest racing weeks of the season, and literally of the year began on Wednesday as Gulfstream Park readied for hosting the "World's Richest Race" - the Grade 1 $16 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Saturday. My first selection of the week was in a maiden claimer where Somwhatoptimistic had been claimed off a troubled debut and looked to be a good price. Dueled on the lead into the stretch at a big 8/1 price before weakening late to finish 3rd. What's Inside left the gate at 5/2 in the sixth, a starter optional claiming sprint for sophomores. Handled patiently just off the leaders and looked to be perfectly positioned, but when top rider Luis Saez let him go he got to the leader, but could not hold off the finish of the 12/1 upset winner - second. The seventh was a non-winners of three lifetime event on the turf and I thought Appa was a generous price to be listed at 6/1. You had to look carefully, but if you did you'd notice that CLEARLY his best speed figures were earned over this course last winter (75-78-79) and his record was 6/0-0-2 everywhere else, but a strong 5/2-1-1 here. Top rider Saez was on and if Appa ran back to last winter's numbers, he was your winner. Stalked the speed into the far turn then took over and drew off. While he was the post time favorite, it was still a more-than-fair price of better than 2/1 and I cashed for well over $30!
In the eighth it was a maiden claimer for older runners, and as I wrote.....normally you'd be leery of a maiden who'd not been out since 2016, but this WAS the Championship Meet at Gulfstream and the trainer of Emporer John WAS Todd Pletcher. He'd faced the eventual Gr 2 Swale winner in his "most recent" start and with Pletcher's numbers here, with layoff runners I made him the pick. I upped the bet when I made the actual wager and he was a DECISIVE winner, drawing off by a widening seven plus lengths through the stretch. Considering everything I thought 4/5 was more than generous on him.
My final bet was in the last race with a Chad Brown turf runner. Jockey Irad Ortiz is generally one of the best riders on the turf but he kept Culture Carrier inside all the way and was trapped until mid-stretch and by then the winner was long gone, fortunate to get 3rd as the 9/5 favorite.
Thursday January 25
After running second with my first selection I had three third place finishes and a fifth - not a day I care to remember to be honest.
Friday January 26
It's Pegasus Eve and I worked quite a while on preparing a program for Keith and I - who had flown down for the weekend - while providing detailed analysis on all twelve races at Gulfstream, as well as a few stakes from both Laurel and Santa Anita. But, I also had picks today. Was hoping that today I'd have a bounce-back effort off the 0-for day yesterday and build some momentum for the big day! The third was a maiden claiming event for three-year-olds and there was not a Todd Pletcher runner, but it was my BEST of the Day! I have a "rule" that with maidens, unless there are some exceptional reasons, once a runner has had six chances and they are still winless I won't play them. But, Galileo's Affair was one of those which I'd make an exception on. Of his six starts two were miserable efforts on the turf, toss......one of the other four was a two-turn affair in a $400K stakes - yes, as a maiden - an obvious toss. That left three dirt, sprint starts. He'd been beaten only 1 1/4, 1 3/4, and a length in those starts, but more importantly his Beyer figures in his last two - 56 & 50 - wouldn't make him a threat to win a Breeders' Cup race, but the last race figure of his "rivals today were: -0, 22, 32, 15, 37, and 33. Looked M-U-C-H the best on paper. Sat mid-pack to the far turn and then without being asked just BLEW by the field to draw off by a widening pole or more while under wraps and geared down.
Didn't pay much, but it's all about being right my friend! In the eighth I had 13/1 Ekhlaas who ran a credible fourth and briefly, oh-so-briefly on the turn I thought maybe.......EVERYBODY, including me like Purely Boy in the 9th on the turf. Too late, third. The tenth was a race I was very interested in. Why? Because the top choice was a Todd Pletcher horse, No Sweat, who I'd bet a little over two weeks ago. That day he was entered in a turf event, but the forecast was for rain. I reasoned that day that if this Todd Pletcher colt got to run in a 7 furlong dirt sprint instead of a two-turn turf event he'd be tough to handle. It all happened but he was a non-threatening third. Several horses had exited races where they'd faced him and I used him as a negative gauge. But today he was going two turns on the main track - AND, after all it was Todd Pletcher and top jockey Luis Saez. A completely different animal today as No Sweat drew off to a decisive score.
Saturday January 27: Pegasus World Cup Day
What a fabulous day! Click HERE to read the separate journal on the BIG day!
Pegasus World Cup Day Highlights
Sunday January 28
I DO say this frequently, but again, what a great story to go along with the chronicles of the racing day! So many times, especially at this time of the year I have a big day, like yesterday and some of the "glow" of the big day is dulled by a less than productive Sunday of handicapping. And I cannot emphasize how very, VERY cool it was to be at the races to be there IN PERSON at an event that people from literally all over the world were saying, "I wish I were there!" I began thinking before I went to bed and then all night - literally because I slept very little (go figure) - I debated about just passing on Sunday and starting the new week Wednesday. But each time I came close to making that decision I thought about how I HAD already handicapped and I also had five stakes races from Sam Houston Park on my agenda. Finally about mid-morning I decided I'd just go ahead and play the races, but I wouldn't spend the time watching. That way if it was a less than successful day I'd only have the brief half hour or so of watching replays to "dull" the Saturday glow. So I put my wagers in and was getting ready to watch the NHL All-Star game when I got a text from my buddy Jim Anderson in Minnesota (who often plays the races and uses my picks) and the text read, "You're still on fire!" So I replied, "Sometimes they just jump off the page :)" but now I HAVE to go check, right? In the Sunday opener it was a claiming event on the turf for a $16K price tag. Six of the eight in here had already lost for this tag and one of the two class droppers was coming out of a $25K spot but was based in Woodbine and those just don't run well here. The other class dropper was very intriguing - Shezaprado. First it was interesting that she was based at the Fair Grounds and was brought here by Michael Maker who has a string of horses in both places. Certainly there are turf races in New Orleans to run in. Secondly, both her maiden win and her first win against winners had identical patterns - dropped in class from a $50K race into a $16K spot and won. What was happening today? Dropping out of a $30K race and dropping in for $16K (and the ship in). Just too much to ignore. Mid-pack into the stretch then was cut loose and she ran by the field with ease. And the best part - she was a healthy $9 winner so I cashed for well over $25!
In the second it was a 3yo maiden claiming event - yes, there was a Todd Pletcher runner taking the "Pletcher Plunge" as the DRF coined it a week or so ago. Huyanda debuted in a MSW two-turn turf event and was basically eased under the wire. Today she plunges to the $25K level and goes turf to dirt and gets top rider Saez. Even better was the fact that the top two rivals were an 0-for-8 Woodbine based maiden and another who'd been beaten by that invader. Why I didn't bet more I can't say, other than I was thinking about it being the Sunday after Pegasus Saturday. Pressed to the stretch and then took as as TONS the best.
After passing the 3rd, 4th, and 5th I was on board with Barbados Kitten in the 6th, a maiden claiming event on the turf. This one was a sharp second when first off the claim for Saffie Joseph who's produced several winners off the claim. The runner-up finish was enhanced when noting that she was checked sharply in the stretch. A clean trip today and she's your winner. Ironic that Jose Ortiz was replaced by Irad Ortiz today - awkward. Sent right to the front she wasn't asked until spinning out of the turn, and then a shake of the reins and the margin lengthened with each and every stride, the easiest kind of winner. My THIRD WIN in a row to start the day......Jim was right, I AM still on fire!
The next pick was the first of five stakes races on the Sam Houston "Houston Racing Festival" card, the Groovy Stakes - a six furlong sprint for 3yo. Direct Dial went for Steve Asmussen - fresh off training Gun Runner to win the Pegasus Cup yesterday - and this one was the prohibitive even money favorite. But when he forged to the lead at the top of the lane a 44/1 longshot just blew by like he was standing still - second. The sixth at Sam Houston was the Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint and the classy veteran Hogy stood out like a sore thumb. Yes, it had been a while since his last win, but of the 216 combined starts by his rivals today only TWO races would be competitive with ONE of his LAST EIGHT starts! A winner of over a million dollars he was the clear class of the field. BUT in a five furlong turf sprint like this with a full field of eleven it would be all about pace and racing luck for a deep closer like him. Honestly, watching the race it was like it had been scripted as he saved ground into the far turn and when asked to run he hugged the rail while one after another moved off the rail to open up a path into the stretch. Ortiz shifted him outside of the one remaining challenger then head dead aim on the leader and blew by without ever taking a deep breath. WHOOO HOOOO my first stakes win in Texas!
The ninth at Gulfstream was a maiden claimer and I liked the upset candidate, Attorney Al who was listed at 12/1 in the DRF morning line. Second time Jorge Navarro with an apprentice rider up while dropping to the bottom of the claiming barrel you could bet this one would be on a "go as fast as you can as far as you can" mission. Pressed the pace and held gamely to be a sharp third at nearly 9/1. Next up was the Barra Lass for 3yo fillies at Sam Houston. Only two figures were even in the same zip code as the two earned by odds-on filly She's Pretty Lucky. And the bettors noted that sending her off as a prohibitive 1/9 favorite....an even third! WOW. As I mentioned at the beginning of today's journal, I'd hesitated to play today. And when I did I "compromised" by thinking I'd bet and watch them all in replays. But that had not worked out and I was watching the streaming live feed from both tracks. The other compromise I made was that with my BEST of the Day in this upcoming 8th, the Grade 3 John Connally going a mile and a half on the turf with defending champion Bigger Picture was to cut the bet from a big $30 win bet down to $20. When the betting was going on and he was the 5/2 second choice I looked at who was taking all the money and at the multi-race wagers. Neither supported anyone but Bigger Picture who was a Grade 1 winner and was exiting the Breeders' Cup Turf. He got a good trip, made his move on the turn and vaulted to the lead. The other favorite who'd taken all the early money came running, but too little, too late! My second stakes in Houston and my fifth winner of the day.
The prime time play resulted in a return of nearly $40 and I was home free with a profit for the day regardless of what happened in the final two races on my selection sheet. The 11th was one of the best price plays of the day as it turned out, and an example of good handicapping and gambling. If you were willing to focus on the debut win for Storymeister then this filly was a standout in this starter optional claiming sprint for three-year-olds. The concern for some was her big Beyer dropped significantly in her first try off that win. But, and I wrote it was "sketchy" reasoning, but that had come at Gulfstream Park West which has a far more sandy track and that COULD have been a reason. But it was also significant that the the winner had been SEVEN clear of the runner-up AND had since come right back to win; the runner-up was four clear of Storymeister and she was another five clear of the field. When the top finishers are that spread out it's often indicative of a strong race. Apparently not a lot of people took note of that because Storymeister went right to the front and the farther they went the wider the margin. Under wraps past the wire she was a decisive winner and the price.....
Oh yeah baby, a big 3/1 price and paid $8.40 meaning I'd be cashing for over $40! WHOOOO HOOOO! The last race on the sheet was the Grade 3 Houston Ladies' Classic and my pick came roaring from the back to stick her neck in front with a sixteenth to go but was out-head-bobbed on the wire to be second in a photo. So for the day a BIG 6-for-10 day with a profit of just fifty cents short of fifty dollars! So, SO very glad I played today!
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