March 21 - 25
Typically the signature day for the Fair Grounds is the same Saturday as the Florida Derby. And I have long had the desire to "switch it up" by going to THEIR Derby instead of the Florida Derby, but our crowd likes going to the Florida Derby. So I've often lamented that it's too bad they are on the same day because if they WERE on different days I'd go to New Orleans for this event. Last fall, "knowing" that the two Derby Days were on the same Saturday I suggested to my buddy Jim Anderson that we make our weekend adventure on the first prep day at the Fair Grounds and so we met there in mid-January. Then at the end of February the dates didn't line up and I then discovered that the Louisiana Derby was March 24th - a full week ahead of the Florida Derby. I was disappointed I'd not checked this and even considered going right back. As it turned out it was all for the best because I had a great day at the races in January when we visited New Orleans and would NOT have had nearly that kind of success had we gone this weekend. AND I would have missed a great day at Gulfstream, which I enjoyed on Sunday March 25th.
March 21 - 23
Wednesday afternoon Kim and I drove across the state - wait, didn't we just do this two weeks ago? Yes, but the main reason for this trip was because our son Jeff and his wife Antoinette had brought their two sons to SW Florida and were going to spend the day Thursday with us. Kim and I drove separately because I wanted to be back in Fort Lauderdale for Derby weekend and the Panthers hockey game Saturday night as we make a big push towards the playoffs. So on the 21st I made my bets and then checked them in Englewood. Not a single winner. Thursday I again made the bets in the morning and then we spent the day with "the kids" and the grandkids. The first win of the day, and the week came in the seventh which was an allowance-optional claiming event for state-breds with a cheap $12K price tag. Greatreviews had run his only poor race last time out in an OPEN NYRA allowance where the trip note said he'd bled. A little unsettling since he was on the diuretic medication Lasix at the time, but Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott wouldn't send a horse out that was unsound. Liked that he had not one, not two, but three bullet works for today. He tracked the 3/5 favorite who was loose on the lead, to the far turn, swept up three wide and blew by to draw off by more than half a dozen lengths.
The nice $6.80 meant I'd cash for nearly $35 to start the day's winnings. In the finale, a non-conditioned allowance for turf sprinters I made the remark that some trainers just have a "niche" and such is the case at Gulfstream for Jason Servis. He RULES turf sprints as he wins nearly 40% of those. And when he gets jockey Irad Ortiz, they win together at a big 43%. Pocket Change was the pick with those connections here. As a 20/1 longshot took the field into the far turn it looked to me like Ortiz was just waiting to make the move. But when asked the longshot would not go away. It was a dramatic stretch run, but in the final fifty yards the 4/5 favorite got in front.
With my triple investment I collected nearly $30 to conclude a winning day - both in percentages and profit!
After another "zero win" day on Friday - which took place while I was driving back across the state - I was ready for "Derby Day" at the Fair Grounds. The original plan was to head out to Gulfstream and watch the action until late in the day and then head back home, make a quick change and go to the hockey game. I considered staying later at the races - because the Fair Grounds is on Central Time and their races wouldn't be over until after the hockey game started. But Friday after the long drive back I reconsidered my thinking. Any travel - whether it's just to drive to Orlando, or to fly to Baltimore, or to fly internationally - usually leaves me with a day and a half or two days of feeling run down. And with the quick turn around to Englewood and back, which had followed on consecutive weekends: Tampa Bay Derby Weekend - drive 2 1/2 hours to Englewood; then two and half hours to Tampa / and back; then 2 1/2 hours back to Fort Lauderdale. Laurel Racing Weekend - fly to Baltimore; three days at the races; fly home late Sunday; Condo weekend: Drive to Englewood on Wednesday and right back home Friday...and knowing that next weekend will be busy with Florida Derby weekend as we host fifteen people for the big day, and then the following Tuesday Kim and I leave for our Viking River Cruise by flying to Amsterdam.....I thought maybe, it would be a better idea to "recover" today by watching the racing action from home. Head to the races on Sunday where I'd have a more "relaxing" day and have had a full day to recover. PLUS I'd be able to watch all the races live and still get to the hockey game in time for the start of the game. Decision made. And it turned out to not only be a good decision for my physical well-being but for the two sporting events. I ran 2nd or 3rd in six races and only had six wins for all of Saturday. The good news is that all six wins came with added money selections - two of them "BET of the DAY" investments. The bad news is that three of them paid $2.10, $2.10, and $2.20 and the "big" payoff of the day was only $4.20. Would have been a frustrating day at the races had I gone. The "day" started off exceptionally well as the first bet came from Rosehill Gardens in Australia as Winx, "the mighty mare" made her bid to win her 24th consecutive race. I was - for the first time - a little edgy about her winning tonight to be honest. First, her comeback race had been solid, but it wasn't devastatingly easy; and second a new shooter was in the line-up who was taking a lot of betting action on the international wagering sites. Despite only six runners and the mighty Winx in the field this new kid on the block was 6/1 in the betting. Hmmmm. So I 'backed down" to only $50 to win. When I woke up early Saturday I turned on the replay and she came roaring by late to win, but again it wasn't a take your breath away kind of thing....but hey, who can complain about TWENTY-FOUR WINS in a row!
And she's made me a nice chunk of change as you can see! After running 2nd and 3rd with my first two plays on Saturday afternoon Jai Blue was the easiest of winners in a 3yo claiming event at Gulfstream going a one-turn mile.
I missed with a minimum play at the Fair Grounds and then the 2nd in New Orleans was the first of the stakes races, AND was my FG "BEST BET!" Testing One Two was the 7/5 program favorite for the state-bred Crescent City Oaks for three-year-old fillies and I thought she looked really strong in here. But she was cross-entered in the $400K Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks later in the day where she was listed at 10/1. While I could certainly understand the allure of the big prize, she just seemed so obvious to win here. She'd tried this level of company in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandria and had faded to be an "ok" fifth.....why not take the "easy money" and may look for an easier Grade 3 later on? She DID run here and was clearly best, proving to be my "longshot" winner of the day paying the "huge" $4.20 I'd mentioned earlier.
Right back in the fifth at Gulfstream I made another "command decision" on my betting. I had really liked Samurai'sfirstlady in this nw2L turf event. She'd earned figures of 72-61-68-72 in her four maiden tries, the 72 being the maiden breaker. Then last time out she broke dead last, but rallied to be beaten only 2 1/2 lengths in her first try vs. winners, and as the 6/5 favorite! And the winner had already come back to win! Her 67 that day and three of the four maiden numbers bested every Beyer earned by her rivals save two....one owned by a 30/1 who'd earned it two years ago and the other was earned a year ago and had gone five starts without anything similar while being trained by an 0-for-12 trainer. It just didn't seem like she had a realistic chance to lose. I planned to make her a triple investment. As I was watching the pre-show analysis for Gulfstream hottie Acacia Courtney remarked that she too liked 'Samurai, but with the "key scratches" she figured to be a single on everyone's ticket. As the fifth rolled around I checked the multi-race wagers and she was a prohibitive favorite. I upped the bet to a whopping $50! I found it ironic that I was investing as much on a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event as I had on a Group 1 with a mare rated the best turf horse in the world working on a 24-race winning streak! But, it's all about the match-up! Easy, peasy, pie!
Too bad that like Winx, she only paid $2.10. Next up was the Costa Rising Stakes at the Fair Grounds, a turf sprint. And I changed my bet - went with the favorite who was third while my original pick was outrun at nearly double-digit odds. The seventh at Gulfstream was the co-featured Any Limit Stakes for 3yo fillies and Elevens looked to be a standout. Again I'd picked her and planned to double the bet but all the "chatter" and multi-race wagers made her a prohibitive favorite, so again I upped the bet. "Just" a "prime time" bet and I was glad as they hit the turn and the rider had her in a world of trouble with no where to go. Forced to go five wide she was able to win, but it wasn't a definitive victory.
Paid only $2.20, still, it was a win and at this point in the day I was five-for-nine. I could not find the winner's circle until late, LATE in the day and it was ironically at Oaklawn Park where I had NOT purchased the past performances. I read online that Mia Mischief was running in their featured Purple Martin Stakes, a six furlong sprint for three-year-old fillies. As I looked her up online I saw that she had faced off with the very talented Amy's Challenge in the Dixie Belle early in the meet. Amy's Challenge had caught my eye late last summer when I read that this Canterbury-based filly had earned the fastest Beyer for any two-year-old of either sex. I then bet her in back-to-back winning efforts against the boys. When she was entered in January's Dixie Belle she was my top pick and I figured I would get a "fair price" because most handicappers would not appreciate her Canterbury form. It was a thrilling duel between her and, yes MIA MISCHIEF who was the post time favorite! But Amy won that race (see photo at left). She came back to try two turns in the Grade 3 Honeybee and she'd set the pace and only been caught in the shadow of the wire. Based on all of this I was going to make Mia Mischief a BIG BET! But then I read an article on the Oaklawn website and saw that trainer Steve Asmussen had been quoted as saying, ".... She's a talented filly. I don't think she's as good here as she has been previously at Oaklawn, but it's good financial spot for her ....." What's he trying to say there? I know you may find this hard to believe, but it is true. Sooooo many things that I've seen, heard and read about races are catalogued away in my mind and as soon as I read this it reminded me of the 2012 Fountain of Youth. Union Rags had been my pick in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile which was run at Churchill Downs in November 2011 and we were there. He just missed catching a loose-on-the-lead runner and was making his return to the races. His trainer remarked that he wasn't "fully cranked" for the Fountain of Youth, and I figured this was true as he had the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby on his radar as primary targets. So I did not bet him. He won as tons the best and I remember the trainer laughing in the post-race interview saying "you never know." I think he had been just hedging his bets! Of course Union Rags got two of THE WORST rides in the history of thoroughbred racing to lose both Derby runs, but when John Velazquez took over the riding he closed out his career with a win in the Grade 1 Belmont, and I cashed to get some of my lost money back. SOOOOO anyway I wondered how similar this situation was with Mia Mischief. I backed down, but kept it a triple investment. She ran away as TONS the best.
So glad I didn't go with my initial thought to abandon the pick because I didn't have the past performances! One final story......while I cannot prove, nor can I explain it, it SEEMS like any time there is a hockey game on a big racing day I win at one or the other. I frequently have said to myself, well the Panthers didn't win but I had a good day at the races; or conversely, well I didn't win at the races but at least the Panthers won! So after today's results I KNEW we'd win in hockey. And this was very important because we are fighting for a playoff berth and needed these two points. Quickly found ourselves down 2-0 and through the first six minutes of the final period we could not find the net. I was thinking, if they (the opponent, the Arizona Coyotes) score again, I'm heading home. Then with 13 minutes left our top scorer got a goal from an impossible angle. Minutes later he scored again and suddenly we're tied. Five minutes later we scored AGAIN to take the lead! And in the dying moments we got a power-play to close out an unbelievable 4-2 comeback. Oh "I knew it" all along :)
It added to my interest to come to the races today instead of Saturday that there were multiple stakes events at Tampa Bay AND I had several "good picks" at Gulfstream. The opener was a nw3L where all seven were exiting a nw3L or a win vs. nw2L. But Little Irishdancer had earned back-to-back paired figures (66-67) that would beat 152 of the 154 lifetime figures earned by the rest of the field. The one that had the two competitive speed figures looked to be a "need to lead" type would would only earn such figures if loose on a slow and lonely lead which did NOT look like the case today. Played exactly like that as the front runner was on top, but had to work a little harder than she wanted, and Little Irishdancer saved ground into the lane when she split horses and angled out....
WINNER! The first bet, the first win! Whooo hooo! Despite it being the second from Tampa, the first of the stakes events here today - the HRN Sprint - was my BET of the Day! There were only two reasons to NOT bet on Imperial Hint.....(1) he was exiting the Breeders' Cup and it's well documented that many a BC runner is overbet in their next start (because, duh, they were exiting a Gr 1 BC Championship event) and were losers; and (2) the price would be microscopic. BUT, I understand that my racing hobby is NOT a second income kind of proposition....I bet to win and only bet on horses I really believe WILL win. His last SIX Beyer figures were all triple digit numbers and of the 58 races showing on the page for his rivals ONE was a triple digit and it had been earned in July of 2016. In addition Imperial Hint had had a five-race winning streak snapped in the BC Sprint, and it's not like he was overmatched as he finished second to one of the best sprinters on the west coast who will run in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen next Saturday on the Dubai World Cup card. Finally, like you needed anything else, he'd been based HERE in Tampa and had fired not bullet works, but eye-popping bullet works! Two works in sub-1:00 (:59.2 and :59.1) would have been "oh my" kind of works, but he also had a :58.4 work. Tons, tons the best on paper. He broke sharply and briefly had the lead. When a "need to lead" rushed to the front and insisted on the front end he let him go to the turn and then just cantered, literally, to the line - watch the video. Even in a workout you'd see a horse working harder through the lane.
And the "best" part was that after sitting at 1/9 which he was all of that until nearly post time he floated up to 1/5 so I was making ten of the easiest dollars I'd ever made, certainly for this weekend! In the third at Tampa I "should have known better" when I bet an 11x maiden, but there were valid excuses - second at 3/5. Was third at 3/5 at Gulfstream and then we arrived at the 4th at Tampa. When I'd handicapped the card I thought it unusual that in this MSW for 3yo fillies on the turf that Chad Brown had sent Paulita here from her So Fla base. Like there aren't other 3yo MSW on the turf at Gulfstream? Still, I thought she would be easily best of this crowd. Javier Castellano split horses at the top of the lane, got to the front and looked to me - and granted I'm a bit biased against Castellano these days - seemed to be cruising to the wire rather than driving to the wire. The second choice came with a furious rally and blew by late....2nd at 3/2 odds. This is a relevant story because in the sixth at Tampa it was ANOTHER MSW on the turf for 3yo fillies and again there was a Chad Brown runner, Night Owl. I had even mentioned in my analysis to "check out how Paulita performs in the 4th earlier today." The one thing Night Owl had that Paulita did not have is that she was a "Double Beyer" horse. But, as I mentioned this very reliable angle is less effective with lightly raced horses and with maidens....BOTH of which applied today! Uh oh. Still, I tripled the bet. So after the Paulita finish I looked at the board and Night Owl was 3/5 but my second choice, Ballston was sitting at 3/1 with Jose Ortiz riding for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Maybe, I thought, I should switch so I'm not sitting here with another odds-on losing ticket. But just as quickly I KNEW how that would play out.....Night Owl would win and I'd say "WHY? Why did I change?" Oh you can't fool this old timer at the races. Made her move spinning out of the turn and ran away as easily best!
Whooo hooo! After failing to score in the 5th or 7th at Gulfstream, both at odds on, I was happy that my choice in the 8th was NOT the favorite. It seemed, on paper that clearly the race would go through the two program favorites. I did NOT like Plein Air, who I'd had last time and was the program's second choice, but I DID like Athera. Both were 3-for-10 on the turf and their last winning race produced similar Beyer figures (72-74). But Plein Air had won two in a row against RESTRICTED $16K runners in 2-lifetime and 3-lifetime races. While Athera had won two back vs. OPEN $16K runners. Also, at the time of Plein Air's victories she'd run in the iconic black & white silks of Frank Calabrese but in that last out win she was claimed and now had a rider who had only nine wins from seventy-eight mounts. Athera on the other hand was STILL in the Calabrese barn, had top rider Luis Saez and was dropping out of a $50K starter allowance. I was surprised that the crowd still bet on Plein Air. As they turned for home a 40/1 runner was on a clear lead but was beginning to shorten stride as Athera hit her best stride. Blew by to win!
Best of all, the 2/1 price allowed me to collect $30 on my double investment! HORRAY! I was particularly irritated with the result of the 8th at Tampa, the Turf Classic where Galleon Mast was the well-deserved 4/5 favorite. Not only did he have the classic Double Beyer advantage but he'd won four of his last six with the two losses easily dismissed - he was dropping out of a second place finish in a Gr 3 event; and in his other loss he'd moved prematurely to the front and was run down by a GPW "Horse-for-the-Course" who he then drilled over the Gulfstream course in the Sunshine Millions in January. He stalked the leaders, glided up outside the leader and to me the rider seemed to think he had the leader measured. Only once inside the 16th pole when he still had NOT caught the leader did he realize he was in trouble did he really push - too late. Photo finish, second. He objected and while I've seen less taken down it was a weak claim. Disallowed, second. But, one of the best things about racing is that when you have a disappointing finish, there's another race less than 20 minutes later! Turns out the next hour was the best part of the day. In the 9th at Gulfstream it was a maiden claiming sprint for 3yo. Yes, there WAS a Todd Pletcher filly, but I was a little leery. First, the deeper we go into the meet, especially mid-to-late March you know all the "good" three-year-old maidens for Mr. Todd have run. Secondly, everyone seemed to like another horse, Shea D Lady. Now she and I have a history. She had been my pick in her debut, strictly a hunch bet because her name reminded me of one of my favorite students, Christy Shade. In that debut she'd been a big 7/1 and had made a bold bid before flattening out to be second. When I backed her in her second start she didn't fire. So I wasn't interested in her today. But it was worrisome that Perfume Lady, the Pletcher filly, had been purchased for $140K and was running for $50K....and she drew the rail which can often be intimidating for a first time starter and/or young horse. I wavered, considered not betting. And then again, like with the Night Owl bet, just KNEW how upset I'd be if a Pletcher 3yo maiden won and I didn't have it, especially after I DID have it on paper. Made the bet.....right to the front, and while it was close inside the final fifty yards, she was the clear winner.
My third at Gulfstream and fifth overall! If you watch the recap video you'll note I don't introduce the race nor comment following. Irritated, again. One reason I now use my phone to video the pre and post race comments is because too many times when I've used my camera I assume it's recorded and it has not been on. But when I use the phone camera I can SEE myself in frame and the red recording dot with the timer clicking. Not sure how it happened, but no video once I got home for this pre-post race. GRRRRR. The next race on my sheet was the tenth from Gulfstream and my "Gulfstream Best Bet." After watching the pre-race analysis show and looking at both Ron Nicoletti and the oh-so-attractive Acacia Courtney's selection sheets I noted that they TOO had made Just Talkin their best bet. I considered upping the wager, but was reminded that BOTH of them had lost with their "Best" yesterday and also that at this point while I was 3-for-6 here at Gulfstream today, Nicoletti was a mere 2-for-9 and Ms Acacia was only 1-for-9. Maybe, just maybe they weren't so reliable. Stuck with the prime time bet. Well deserved because it was a non-conditioned allowance for turf sprinters. Just like Pocket Change in the finale on Thursday, Just Talkin was from the Jason Servis barn (nearly 40% turf sprinters) with jockey Irad Ortiz up (43% for Servis). In addition she was dropping out of back to back stakes tries where she'd been 2nd at 18/1 and 3rd at 20/1 - obviously she had outrun her odds. The drop into allowance company should produce a win. Right to the front and never looked back as she aired by daylight.
The $3 payoff allowed me to cash for thirty dollars on my fourth winner locally and sixth overall! Right back in the 10th at Tampa the Ocala Sophomore Stakes for 3yo colts going seven furlongs. And again, while Noble Commander was the favorite, I landed on him because of my day-to-day handicapping and interest in racing. In mid-February on a week-day card it was a MSW sprint for 3yo and Mike Welsch made Noble Commander his BEST of the day. Not unusual that he'd pick a first time starter, but very much so that he was his BEST. And typically when Welsch tabs a first timer it's because there are vulnerable experienced runners which was NOT the case on this February card. What Welsch pointed out was that 'Noble had great works and had worked in company with graded stakes winner Salty. Two things of note about all this....Welsch is known for his workout reports, so much so he published daily workout reports nationally for all Triple Crown races and the Breeders' Cup, so when he says a work is good, LISTEN. And his reference to Salty was confirmed when she won off her works in her comeback here at GP by the Sea. I bet Noble Commander and he won as the favorite. But that's not the end of it.....he'd been all out to hold off Noble Drama and that one came back the first of this month and won by a pole. So we had a colt who was obviously talented who'd beaten a very good colt and now was entered in a stakes for his first try vs. winners. I tripled the bet on the Mark Casse charge. During the running of the race I was thinking, "typical Julian Leparoux" as he kept the colt wide - albeit out of trouble - into the far turn and THROUGH the far turn losing all kinds of ground and valuable lengths. So ok, when asked he ran away as much, MUCH the best. Ok Leparoux, this time........
Cashed for another $30 on my final winner of the day and my seventh overall today. I was 2nd (caught in deep stretch) in my last play at Gulfstream and in an ironic twist, I ran 5th at 4/5 in the Tampa Distaff Stakes on a mare who was a perfect 8-for-8 in the money - even considered betting to show because she'd NEVER missed hitting the board....until today. Wow.
No racing on Wednesday as it's the Ocala In-Training Sale and then next Saturday is Florida Derby Day and the end of the Championship Meet.
The nice $6.80 meant I'd cash for nearly $35 to start the day's winnings. In the finale, a non-conditioned allowance for turf sprinters I made the remark that some trainers just have a "niche" and such is the case at Gulfstream for Jason Servis. He RULES turf sprints as he wins nearly 40% of those. And when he gets jockey Irad Ortiz, they win together at a big 43%. Pocket Change was the pick with those connections here. As a 20/1 longshot took the field into the far turn it looked to me like Ortiz was just waiting to make the move. But when asked the longshot would not go away. It was a dramatic stretch run, but in the final fifty yards the 4/5 favorite got in front.
With my triple investment I collected nearly $30 to conclude a winning day - both in percentages and profit!
Saturday March 24: Louisiana Derby Day
After another "zero win" day on Friday - which took place while I was driving back across the state - I was ready for "Derby Day" at the Fair Grounds. The original plan was to head out to Gulfstream and watch the action until late in the day and then head back home, make a quick change and go to the hockey game. I considered staying later at the races - because the Fair Grounds is on Central Time and their races wouldn't be over until after the hockey game started. But Friday after the long drive back I reconsidered my thinking. Any travel - whether it's just to drive to Orlando, or to fly to Baltimore, or to fly internationally - usually leaves me with a day and a half or two days of feeling run down. And with the quick turn around to Englewood and back, which had followed on consecutive weekends: Tampa Bay Derby Weekend - drive 2 1/2 hours to Englewood; then two and half hours to Tampa / and back; then 2 1/2 hours back to Fort Lauderdale. Laurel Racing Weekend - fly to Baltimore; three days at the races; fly home late Sunday; Condo weekend: Drive to Englewood on Wednesday and right back home Friday...and knowing that next weekend will be busy with Florida Derby weekend as we host fifteen people for the big day, and then the following Tuesday Kim and I leave for our Viking River Cruise by flying to Amsterdam.....I thought maybe, it would be a better idea to "recover" today by watching the racing action from home. Head to the races on Sunday where I'd have a more "relaxing" day and have had a full day to recover. PLUS I'd be able to watch all the races live and still get to the hockey game in time for the start of the game. Decision made. And it turned out to not only be a good decision for my physical well-being but for the two sporting events. I ran 2nd or 3rd in six races and only had six wins for all of Saturday. The good news is that all six wins came with added money selections - two of them "BET of the DAY" investments. The bad news is that three of them paid $2.10, $2.10, and $2.20 and the "big" payoff of the day was only $4.20. Would have been a frustrating day at the races had I gone. The "day" started off exceptionally well as the first bet came from Rosehill Gardens in Australia as Winx, "the mighty mare" made her bid to win her 24th consecutive race. I was - for the first time - a little edgy about her winning tonight to be honest. First, her comeback race had been solid, but it wasn't devastatingly easy; and second a new shooter was in the line-up who was taking a lot of betting action on the international wagering sites. Despite only six runners and the mighty Winx in the field this new kid on the block was 6/1 in the betting. Hmmmm. So I 'backed down" to only $50 to win. When I woke up early Saturday I turned on the replay and she came roaring by late to win, but again it wasn't a take your breath away kind of thing....but hey, who can complain about TWENTY-FOUR WINS in a row!
I missed with a minimum play at the Fair Grounds and then the 2nd in New Orleans was the first of the stakes races, AND was my FG "BEST BET!" Testing One Two was the 7/5 program favorite for the state-bred Crescent City Oaks for three-year-old fillies and I thought she looked really strong in here. But she was cross-entered in the $400K Grade 2 Fair Ground Oaks later in the day where she was listed at 10/1. While I could certainly understand the allure of the big prize, she just seemed so obvious to win here. She'd tried this level of company in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandria and had faded to be an "ok" fifth.....why not take the "easy money" and may look for an easier Grade 3 later on? She DID run here and was clearly best, proving to be my "longshot" winner of the day paying the "huge" $4.20 I'd mentioned earlier.
Right back in the fifth at Gulfstream I made another "command decision" on my betting. I had really liked Samurai'sfirstlady in this nw2L turf event. She'd earned figures of 72-61-68-72 in her four maiden tries, the 72 being the maiden breaker. Then last time out she broke dead last, but rallied to be beaten only 2 1/2 lengths in her first try vs. winners, and as the 6/5 favorite! And the winner had already come back to win! Her 67 that day and three of the four maiden numbers bested every Beyer earned by her rivals save two....one owned by a 30/1 who'd earned it two years ago and the other was earned a year ago and had gone five starts without anything similar while being trained by an 0-for-12 trainer. It just didn't seem like she had a realistic chance to lose. I planned to make her a triple investment. As I was watching the pre-show analysis for Gulfstream hottie Acacia Courtney remarked that she too liked 'Samurai, but with the "key scratches" she figured to be a single on everyone's ticket. As the fifth rolled around I checked the multi-race wagers and she was a prohibitive favorite. I upped the bet to a whopping $50! I found it ironic that I was investing as much on a non-winners of two lifetime claiming event as I had on a Group 1 with a mare rated the best turf horse in the world working on a 24-race winning streak! But, it's all about the match-up! Easy, peasy, pie!
Too bad that like Winx, she only paid $2.10. Next up was the Costa Rising Stakes at the Fair Grounds, a turf sprint. And I changed my bet - went with the favorite who was third while my original pick was outrun at nearly double-digit odds. The seventh at Gulfstream was the co-featured Any Limit Stakes for 3yo fillies and Elevens looked to be a standout. Again I'd picked her and planned to double the bet but all the "chatter" and multi-race wagers made her a prohibitive favorite, so again I upped the bet. "Just" a "prime time" bet and I was glad as they hit the turn and the rider had her in a world of trouble with no where to go. Forced to go five wide she was able to win, but it wasn't a definitive victory.
So glad I didn't go with my initial thought to abandon the pick because I didn't have the past performances! One final story......while I cannot prove, nor can I explain it, it SEEMS like any time there is a hockey game on a big racing day I win at one or the other. I frequently have said to myself, well the Panthers didn't win but I had a good day at the races; or conversely, well I didn't win at the races but at least the Panthers won! So after today's results I KNEW we'd win in hockey. And this was very important because we are fighting for a playoff berth and needed these two points. Quickly found ourselves down 2-0 and through the first six minutes of the final period we could not find the net. I was thinking, if they (the opponent, the Arizona Coyotes) score again, I'm heading home. Then with 13 minutes left our top scorer got a goal from an impossible angle. Minutes later he scored again and suddenly we're tied. Five minutes later we scored AGAIN to take the lead! And in the dying moments we got a power-play to close out an unbelievable 4-2 comeback. Oh "I knew it" all along :)
Sunday March 25th: Florida Cup Day at Tampa Bay
It added to my interest to come to the races today instead of Saturday that there were multiple stakes events at Tampa Bay AND I had several "good picks" at Gulfstream. The opener was a nw3L where all seven were exiting a nw3L or a win vs. nw2L. But Little Irishdancer had earned back-to-back paired figures (66-67) that would beat 152 of the 154 lifetime figures earned by the rest of the field. The one that had the two competitive speed figures looked to be a "need to lead" type would would only earn such figures if loose on a slow and lonely lead which did NOT look like the case today. Played exactly like that as the front runner was on top, but had to work a little harder than she wanted, and Little Irishdancer saved ground into the lane when she split horses and angled out....
WINNER! The first bet, the first win! Whooo hooo! Despite it being the second from Tampa, the first of the stakes events here today - the HRN Sprint - was my BET of the Day! There were only two reasons to NOT bet on Imperial Hint.....(1) he was exiting the Breeders' Cup and it's well documented that many a BC runner is overbet in their next start (because, duh, they were exiting a Gr 1 BC Championship event) and were losers; and (2) the price would be microscopic. BUT, I understand that my racing hobby is NOT a second income kind of proposition....I bet to win and only bet on horses I really believe WILL win. His last SIX Beyer figures were all triple digit numbers and of the 58 races showing on the page for his rivals ONE was a triple digit and it had been earned in July of 2016. In addition Imperial Hint had had a five-race winning streak snapped in the BC Sprint, and it's not like he was overmatched as he finished second to one of the best sprinters on the west coast who will run in the Group 1 Golden Shaheen next Saturday on the Dubai World Cup card. Finally, like you needed anything else, he'd been based HERE in Tampa and had fired not bullet works, but eye-popping bullet works! Two works in sub-1:00 (:59.2 and :59.1) would have been "oh my" kind of works, but he also had a :58.4 work. Tons, tons the best on paper. He broke sharply and briefly had the lead. When a "need to lead" rushed to the front and insisted on the front end he let him go to the turn and then just cantered, literally, to the line - watch the video. Even in a workout you'd see a horse working harder through the lane.
And the "best" part was that after sitting at 1/9 which he was all of that until nearly post time he floated up to 1/5 so I was making ten of the easiest dollars I'd ever made, certainly for this weekend! In the third at Tampa I "should have known better" when I bet an 11x maiden, but there were valid excuses - second at 3/5. Was third at 3/5 at Gulfstream and then we arrived at the 4th at Tampa. When I'd handicapped the card I thought it unusual that in this MSW for 3yo fillies on the turf that Chad Brown had sent Paulita here from her So Fla base. Like there aren't other 3yo MSW on the turf at Gulfstream? Still, I thought she would be easily best of this crowd. Javier Castellano split horses at the top of the lane, got to the front and looked to me - and granted I'm a bit biased against Castellano these days - seemed to be cruising to the wire rather than driving to the wire. The second choice came with a furious rally and blew by late....2nd at 3/2 odds. This is a relevant story because in the sixth at Tampa it was ANOTHER MSW on the turf for 3yo fillies and again there was a Chad Brown runner, Night Owl. I had even mentioned in my analysis to "check out how Paulita performs in the 4th earlier today." The one thing Night Owl had that Paulita did not have is that she was a "Double Beyer" horse. But, as I mentioned this very reliable angle is less effective with lightly raced horses and with maidens....BOTH of which applied today! Uh oh. Still, I tripled the bet. So after the Paulita finish I looked at the board and Night Owl was 3/5 but my second choice, Ballston was sitting at 3/1 with Jose Ortiz riding for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Maybe, I thought, I should switch so I'm not sitting here with another odds-on losing ticket. But just as quickly I KNEW how that would play out.....Night Owl would win and I'd say "WHY? Why did I change?" Oh you can't fool this old timer at the races. Made her move spinning out of the turn and ran away as easily best!
Whooo hooo! After failing to score in the 5th or 7th at Gulfstream, both at odds on, I was happy that my choice in the 8th was NOT the favorite. It seemed, on paper that clearly the race would go through the two program favorites. I did NOT like Plein Air, who I'd had last time and was the program's second choice, but I DID like Athera. Both were 3-for-10 on the turf and their last winning race produced similar Beyer figures (72-74). But Plein Air had won two in a row against RESTRICTED $16K runners in 2-lifetime and 3-lifetime races. While Athera had won two back vs. OPEN $16K runners. Also, at the time of Plein Air's victories she'd run in the iconic black & white silks of Frank Calabrese but in that last out win she was claimed and now had a rider who had only nine wins from seventy-eight mounts. Athera on the other hand was STILL in the Calabrese barn, had top rider Luis Saez and was dropping out of a $50K starter allowance. I was surprised that the crowd still bet on Plein Air. As they turned for home a 40/1 runner was on a clear lead but was beginning to shorten stride as Athera hit her best stride. Blew by to win!
My third at Gulfstream and fifth overall! If you watch the recap video you'll note I don't introduce the race nor comment following. Irritated, again. One reason I now use my phone to video the pre and post race comments is because too many times when I've used my camera I assume it's recorded and it has not been on. But when I use the phone camera I can SEE myself in frame and the red recording dot with the timer clicking. Not sure how it happened, but no video once I got home for this pre-post race. GRRRRR. The next race on my sheet was the tenth from Gulfstream and my "Gulfstream Best Bet." After watching the pre-race analysis show and looking at both Ron Nicoletti and the oh-so-attractive Acacia Courtney's selection sheets I noted that they TOO had made Just Talkin their best bet. I considered upping the wager, but was reminded that BOTH of them had lost with their "Best" yesterday and also that at this point while I was 3-for-6 here at Gulfstream today, Nicoletti was a mere 2-for-9 and Ms Acacia was only 1-for-9. Maybe, just maybe they weren't so reliable. Stuck with the prime time bet. Well deserved because it was a non-conditioned allowance for turf sprinters. Just like Pocket Change in the finale on Thursday, Just Talkin was from the Jason Servis barn (nearly 40% turf sprinters) with jockey Irad Ortiz up (43% for Servis). In addition she was dropping out of back to back stakes tries where she'd been 2nd at 18/1 and 3rd at 20/1 - obviously she had outrun her odds. The drop into allowance company should produce a win. Right to the front and never looked back as she aired by daylight.
The $3 payoff allowed me to cash for thirty dollars on my fourth winner locally and sixth overall! Right back in the 10th at Tampa the Ocala Sophomore Stakes for 3yo colts going seven furlongs. And again, while Noble Commander was the favorite, I landed on him because of my day-to-day handicapping and interest in racing. In mid-February on a week-day card it was a MSW sprint for 3yo and Mike Welsch made Noble Commander his BEST of the day. Not unusual that he'd pick a first time starter, but very much so that he was his BEST. And typically when Welsch tabs a first timer it's because there are vulnerable experienced runners which was NOT the case on this February card. What Welsch pointed out was that 'Noble had great works and had worked in company with graded stakes winner Salty. Two things of note about all this....Welsch is known for his workout reports, so much so he published daily workout reports nationally for all Triple Crown races and the Breeders' Cup, so when he says a work is good, LISTEN. And his reference to Salty was confirmed when she won off her works in her comeback here at GP by the Sea. I bet Noble Commander and he won as the favorite. But that's not the end of it.....he'd been all out to hold off Noble Drama and that one came back the first of this month and won by a pole. So we had a colt who was obviously talented who'd beaten a very good colt and now was entered in a stakes for his first try vs. winners. I tripled the bet on the Mark Casse charge. During the running of the race I was thinking, "typical Julian Leparoux" as he kept the colt wide - albeit out of trouble - into the far turn and THROUGH the far turn losing all kinds of ground and valuable lengths. So ok, when asked he ran away as much, MUCH the best. Ok Leparoux, this time........
Cashed for another $30 on my final winner of the day and my seventh overall today. I was 2nd (caught in deep stretch) in my last play at Gulfstream and in an ironic twist, I ran 5th at 4/5 in the Tampa Distaff Stakes on a mare who was a perfect 8-for-8 in the money - even considered betting to show because she'd NEVER missed hitting the board....until today. Wow.
March 24-25 Highlights
No racing on Wednesday as it's the Ocala In-Training Sale and then next Saturday is Florida Derby Day and the end of the Championship Meet.
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