February 3
The Road To The Florida Derby Begins!
We've begun to count down the days to the Florida Derby as the serious prep races for the Derby and the Oaks began today. Fresh of a spectacular five-win outing on Pegasus Day I handicapped SEVEN tracks for today and headed out with all my tickets from last Saturday to proved the funds for today's investments. So the first thing I did was cash out my tickets and place the first bet - I collected MULTIPLE $100 bills :) I had a pick in the opener at Gulfstream, a non-winners of two lifetime turf route where Chad Brown was dropping Bracket Creep out of starter allowance company. I thought he was likely NOT going to run big, but he just seemed to lay over the field and all three GP handicappers had him on top. He stalked the pace to the far turn, then faded badly to eighth. It was nearly an hour before my next bet, in the Aqueduct opener - my first day to play New York this winter because they'd had so many cancelled cards due to the weather. Arbitrator went down as second best despite being the prohibitive 3/5 favorite.
In the Aqueduct second I doubled the bet on Surprise Wonder, a Todd Pletcher maiden. He'd been second in an OPEN MSW, then third in a state-bred MSW and now was dropping in for a state-bred tag. He was the co-favorite as they left the gate. He couldn't keep pace with the other co-favorite and dropped back two or three lengths into a clear second spot. On the turn he began to grind away at the leader who shortened stride at the 16th pole and Surprise Wonder went by to provide me with the first winning ticket of the day.
In the 4th at Gulfstream it was the first of the multiple graded stakes, the seven furlong Grade 3 Swale for 3yo colts. I did NOT like the odds-on favorite Strike Power. He'd whistled his debut when drilling MSW rivals with a blistering 102 Beyer. BUT, that had come at 5 1/2 furlongs and he'd been loose on the easiest of leads. Today he'd go first time vs. winners, into stakes company, stretch out to seven furlongs AND have pace pressure. But he shot out of the gate and went unchallenged through a :22.4 soft opening quarter and an ok :45.4 half mile. My late runner never picked up his feet, sixth at 9/2 odds. Missed at Tampa when I had a similar scenario and Animauxselle was 4/1 tracking a 3/5 last out maiden winner. Dueled through the lane, got his head in front with 100 yards to go only to have a deep closing longshot blow by to score, second. Little Baltar was left at the gate at 5/2 in the fifth at Gulfstream, a claiming event on the turf. Came running too late to be second. In the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant there were two Chad Brown runners and everyone liked Data Dependent as did I. Near the back throughout and sixth as the 7/5 favorite. Back to Tampa where we had a claiming event which was a nw2Y - which means you can't have won two races since a certain date. And in these kind of events you should prefer proven winners coming off a layoff or second off a layoff. And the only one like that was Silly Factor. Tracked the leaders and blew by under a hand ride to score easily. Right back in Tampa's sixth we were on the turf and it was a Starter Allowance for $16K. Jermyn Street had won back-to-back $16K events here and looked to get another ideal pressing trip right behind the speed. But when the gates opened he was quickly three lengths clear on an easy lead. As they hit the far turn the rider had slowed the pace to a pokey :49 and change half mile, but now he was being surrounded. A 3/16th of a mile duel followed where he lost the lead turning for home but fought back doggedly to prevail in the final strides and I had ANOTHER winner!
Sandwiched between the two Tampa winners was my "Best of the Day" at Oaklawn Park. I have to admit I was a bit skeptical about making this play because when I'd last played Oaklawn, from the Fair Grounds, I'd had only one winner. It was a non-conditioned allowance racing going a mile and a sixteenth and I liked Shotgun Kowboy, a lot. He'd been in nothing but stakes since winning two allowance races nearly a year ago and with a win, or in the money finish, he'd be racing's newest millionaire earner. The "X" factor was Shut The Box. He was coming off of two strong efforts at the Fair Grounds where he'd earned a 92 and 95 in stakes company. WHY was he not dropping into an allowance in New Orleans? And he'd been 2/1 program favorite in such an allowance there on Friday but scratched out to ship and run here? That he'd suddenly become fast was worrisome to me as you could have claimed him for $40K out of a "beaten" event back in the spring. 'Kowboy went right to the front but 'Box hounded him every step of the way to the far turn. It looked to me however that as they hit the turn my pick was running smoothly and well in hand while Shut the Box was having to be pushed to keep up. The rider of Shotgun Kowboy looked under his shoulder as if to say, "C'ya!" and he accelerated. The strides instantly lengthened and it was all over as he drew off well in had by open lengths to the wire.
Cashed for $42 on the "prime time" play! I was still seeking my first win locally as they loaded into the gate for Gulfstream's eighth. CERTAINLY here - a Maiden Special for 3yo and yes there was a Todd Pletcher colt, Dream Friend who was the even money favorite. The only concern I had was that he had drawn the rail in a bulky field of nearly a dozen. If John Velazquez got away cleanly I KNEW I had the winner. Pletcher first timers are always fast and always well conditioned. The only thing that is up in the air is the break. The gates sprung open and in the first two jumps Dream Friend was clear! Coasting on a daylight lead to the far turn, but then the stalkers came to him. I KNEW Velazquez had been coasting through the second quarter and had plenty left, all he had to do was ask.....he did and nothing. Like he was tied to the rail 'Friend plummeted through the field and staggered home 10th of the eleven. Wow. Missed in a maiden at Oaklawn before I had my one and only play at Laurel (I'd had two, but one scratched). It was my "Laurel BEST" and it was in their featured eighth, a second level allowance sprint. Lewisfield had built a sparkling resume of 5/3-1-1 which included an entry level allowance win in state bred company, in OPEN company, and a state-bred stakes win. His last three starts had earned Beyer speed figures of 88-88-85 and of the combined 172 figures run by today's rivals, TWO would be competitive. That 1% chance of an upset seemed slight to say the least. Pressed the pace along the rail to the turn, glided to the front and when asked kissed the field a pleasant good afternoon good-bye!
Another "prime time" winner as I cashed for $40 even! After a no-show performance in Aqueduct's 7th it was time for the 9th at Gulfstream, an entry level allowance on the turf. Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti had made my top choice, Krampus, his BEST of the day. So you knew he'd be a short price. He had a late running style but his last two Beyers of 90 and 93 were better than all but two of the combined 110 figures earned by his rivals. Those had been earned a year ago and in a summer-time state-bred stakes (not nearly this caliber of competition). He was trapped behind horses into the turn, but found a seam as heads turned for home and he was gaining with every stride. Got to the leader a hundred yards out and edged clear. WHOOO HOOOO! Finally! I'd been surprised his odds had floated to 9/5 as they approached the gate. And as I walked through the simulcast area I saw his final odds had clicked up to 2/1! WHAT! The numbers flashed for the payout.....
That's right, a big $6.80 meant I'd cash for over $50 on my first local winner! Just as I came down from the balcony-walk way over the paddock from filming the recap it was time for the first of the graded stakes from Santa Anita. The Grade 2 Palos Verdes was a six furlong sprint and it was serving as the 2018 debut for Breeders' Cup Sprint winner and Eclipse Award Sprint Champion Roy H. Typically, even at odds-on, such a runner would be worthy of a BET of the Day kind of wager. But I was a big leery at the almost certain short price. First, it had been stated by his connections that this was simply a prep for the Group 1 $2 Million Golden Shaheen in Dubai next month; second, Roy H was a stalker/finisher which meant if someone got loose on the front end AND he was not being asked for his best he was vulnerable. Not to worry. Sat behind a trio of front runners who dueled to the turn then glided up without being asked and drew off while simply cantering to the wire.
My triple investment produced almost $20 but it was more about having the winner than the cash on this one. Missed in my next five, three of which were graded events for sophomores. The one worthy of mention was the Grade 3 Dania Beach on the turf at Gulfstream. Untamed Domain figured to be odds-on off a just-miss 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But his figures weren't anything special and he was a deep closer in a crowded field. I liked Todd Pletcher's Gidu who was stepping up off a MSW win in a turf sprint to this two-turn graded event. He figured to be a fair price and he was at 5/2. Right to the front, dogged by the 4/1 third choice to the top of the lane they dueled to the wire and from where I sat I really thought I'd won....
Nope, that's me on the inside.....sooooo close :( It was time for the finale at Tampa, but there was a delay and so I watched from the Fair Grounds as Leslie May swept to the front in the slop and edged clear to win a MSW two-turn event and perhaps put herself in line to try stakes company next time out. Finally they were in the gate for the Tampa turf finale. I really liked Tolstoy who had been second in a MSW at Keeneland in a sprint last fall. But he had the breeding to handle the turf of this maiden claiming race. If even close to what his connections thought of his talent when they laid out $535K for him he'd win under one of the better Tampa riders, Daniel Centeno. He was listed at a ridiculous 20/1 by the Daily Racing Form and I noted that if he was well bet I'd up the bet. He was 2/1 in the official program and I knew I'd up the bet, so I did. He went right to the front, was challenged through the turn, but repelled those rivals and edged clear late.
The initial $5 bet had been upped, that's right, to a "PRIME TIME" play for my ninth win on the day! But far and away the best story of the day surrounded the featured Grade 2, $350K Holy Bull for three-year-olds on the Florida Derby trail. As I handicapped the card on Thursday in Orlando while visiting our son Brad, his wife, and our adorable grandson Oliver, I first noted that this was a very competitive field of eleven sophomores, none of which stood out. And, I noted, I didn't think MY Derby horse was in here. But after looking over the field I went with the Todd Pletcher colt. After I wrote him up as my choice I was noting the other possible winners and I came to Mississippi who'd drawn post eleven. BUT his last two speed figures were better than anything the rest of the field had run, ever. It hit me that this was the same identical scenario as last week's Pegasus Cup where Gun Runner also had a "Double Beyer Advantage" but was wide. I had stuck with him and he'd won handily. I changed my analysis and copied the comments on Mississippi and pasted them at the top of the analysis to make HIM the triple investment play. When I arrived at Gulfstream and got to my seat in Section 101, Row A I checked the scratches....there were only three from the main body of any of the races, but one of them WAS Mississippi. Now typically when this happens I pass the race because when I list second and third choices they aren't necessarily who I think has the second or third best chance to win. But here, I was struck by all the "signs" from the "Racing Gods." First, I'd originally made the Pletcher colt my top pick; now the horse I'd put over him was out; it was Super Bowl week and to make a change would be to "call an audible" in football jargon. The Pletcher colt's name.....AUDIBLE - could the signs be any more aligned that I was meant to bet him? My original analysis is on the right - the one I printed on the left:
As the field left the gate Audible found himself in a perfect tracking position. At the top of the far turn he made his move and was immediately followed by one of the betting choices. As they began to straighten for the sprint to the first finish line the track announcer called out it would be a "classic confrontation." But that lasted about two jumps before Audible found another gear and drew off with authority. His winning time was only a couple of clicks off the track record! And to add to the story, he paid a whopping $8.40 so with my triple investment I'd cash for over $60 and had drawn nearly even on the 2-for-10 Gulfstream bets for the day! Oh my!
As I left I had two outstanding bets. I missed on the latter, Brad Free's "Best" at Santa Anita when Gotham Desire was a non-factoring 9th at 9/1 odds. But the other had a story to go with it. Mitole had been my choice in a MSW at the Fair Grounds in December when I was playing there daily. There were three sharp debuting colts and they'd finished in a photo finish with Mitole third. When Jim and I went to New Orleans and I handicapped the Oaklawn card, there was Mitole in a MSW event. Why had he shipped to Arkansas unless they thought they had the winner? Was the post time favorite, but was a distant second. Today he simply looked much the best and he was the DRF's "BEST" of the day. Right to the front and he coasted in a powerful win by nearly a pole. As track announcer Vic Stauffer pointed out, the final time for Mitole's maiden win was two clicks FASTER than the winning time of the featured King Cotton Stakes for older sprinters! That win gave me a total of eleven wins, nearly 40% and a flat-bet profit for the day. Considering the 2-for-10 results at Gulfstream, I was thrilled! And in a side note, before racing started on Wednesday I'd run the numbers for Gulfstream through the first two months......
Very impressive Mr. Mark!
In the Aqueduct second I doubled the bet on Surprise Wonder, a Todd Pletcher maiden. He'd been second in an OPEN MSW, then third in a state-bred MSW and now was dropping in for a state-bred tag. He was the co-favorite as they left the gate. He couldn't keep pace with the other co-favorite and dropped back two or three lengths into a clear second spot. On the turn he began to grind away at the leader who shortened stride at the 16th pole and Surprise Wonder went by to provide me with the first winning ticket of the day.
In the 4th at Gulfstream it was the first of the multiple graded stakes, the seven furlong Grade 3 Swale for 3yo colts. I did NOT like the odds-on favorite Strike Power. He'd whistled his debut when drilling MSW rivals with a blistering 102 Beyer. BUT, that had come at 5 1/2 furlongs and he'd been loose on the easiest of leads. Today he'd go first time vs. winners, into stakes company, stretch out to seven furlongs AND have pace pressure. But he shot out of the gate and went unchallenged through a :22.4 soft opening quarter and an ok :45.4 half mile. My late runner never picked up his feet, sixth at 9/2 odds. Missed at Tampa when I had a similar scenario and Animauxselle was 4/1 tracking a 3/5 last out maiden winner. Dueled through the lane, got his head in front with 100 yards to go only to have a deep closing longshot blow by to score, second. Little Baltar was left at the gate at 5/2 in the fifth at Gulfstream, a claiming event on the turf. Came running too late to be second. In the Grade 3 Sweetest Chant there were two Chad Brown runners and everyone liked Data Dependent as did I. Near the back throughout and sixth as the 7/5 favorite. Back to Tampa where we had a claiming event which was a nw2Y - which means you can't have won two races since a certain date. And in these kind of events you should prefer proven winners coming off a layoff or second off a layoff. And the only one like that was Silly Factor. Tracked the leaders and blew by under a hand ride to score easily. Right back in Tampa's sixth we were on the turf and it was a Starter Allowance for $16K. Jermyn Street had won back-to-back $16K events here and looked to get another ideal pressing trip right behind the speed. But when the gates opened he was quickly three lengths clear on an easy lead. As they hit the far turn the rider had slowed the pace to a pokey :49 and change half mile, but now he was being surrounded. A 3/16th of a mile duel followed where he lost the lead turning for home but fought back doggedly to prevail in the final strides and I had ANOTHER winner!
Sandwiched between the two Tampa winners was my "Best of the Day" at Oaklawn Park. I have to admit I was a bit skeptical about making this play because when I'd last played Oaklawn, from the Fair Grounds, I'd had only one winner. It was a non-conditioned allowance racing going a mile and a sixteenth and I liked Shotgun Kowboy, a lot. He'd been in nothing but stakes since winning two allowance races nearly a year ago and with a win, or in the money finish, he'd be racing's newest millionaire earner. The "X" factor was Shut The Box. He was coming off of two strong efforts at the Fair Grounds where he'd earned a 92 and 95 in stakes company. WHY was he not dropping into an allowance in New Orleans? And he'd been 2/1 program favorite in such an allowance there on Friday but scratched out to ship and run here? That he'd suddenly become fast was worrisome to me as you could have claimed him for $40K out of a "beaten" event back in the spring. 'Kowboy went right to the front but 'Box hounded him every step of the way to the far turn. It looked to me however that as they hit the turn my pick was running smoothly and well in hand while Shut the Box was having to be pushed to keep up. The rider of Shotgun Kowboy looked under his shoulder as if to say, "C'ya!" and he accelerated. The strides instantly lengthened and it was all over as he drew off well in had by open lengths to the wire.
Cashed for $42 on the "prime time" play! I was still seeking my first win locally as they loaded into the gate for Gulfstream's eighth. CERTAINLY here - a Maiden Special for 3yo and yes there was a Todd Pletcher colt, Dream Friend who was the even money favorite. The only concern I had was that he had drawn the rail in a bulky field of nearly a dozen. If John Velazquez got away cleanly I KNEW I had the winner. Pletcher first timers are always fast and always well conditioned. The only thing that is up in the air is the break. The gates sprung open and in the first two jumps Dream Friend was clear! Coasting on a daylight lead to the far turn, but then the stalkers came to him. I KNEW Velazquez had been coasting through the second quarter and had plenty left, all he had to do was ask.....he did and nothing. Like he was tied to the rail 'Friend plummeted through the field and staggered home 10th of the eleven. Wow. Missed in a maiden at Oaklawn before I had my one and only play at Laurel (I'd had two, but one scratched). It was my "Laurel BEST" and it was in their featured eighth, a second level allowance sprint. Lewisfield had built a sparkling resume of 5/3-1-1 which included an entry level allowance win in state bred company, in OPEN company, and a state-bred stakes win. His last three starts had earned Beyer speed figures of 88-88-85 and of the combined 172 figures run by today's rivals, TWO would be competitive. That 1% chance of an upset seemed slight to say the least. Pressed the pace along the rail to the turn, glided to the front and when asked kissed the field a pleasant good afternoon good-bye!
Another "prime time" winner as I cashed for $40 even! After a no-show performance in Aqueduct's 7th it was time for the 9th at Gulfstream, an entry level allowance on the turf. Gulfstream handicapper Ron Nicoletti had made my top choice, Krampus, his BEST of the day. So you knew he'd be a short price. He had a late running style but his last two Beyers of 90 and 93 were better than all but two of the combined 110 figures earned by his rivals. Those had been earned a year ago and in a summer-time state-bred stakes (not nearly this caliber of competition). He was trapped behind horses into the turn, but found a seam as heads turned for home and he was gaining with every stride. Got to the leader a hundred yards out and edged clear. WHOOO HOOOO! Finally! I'd been surprised his odds had floated to 9/5 as they approached the gate. And as I walked through the simulcast area I saw his final odds had clicked up to 2/1! WHAT! The numbers flashed for the payout.....
My triple investment produced almost $20 but it was more about having the winner than the cash on this one. Missed in my next five, three of which were graded events for sophomores. The one worthy of mention was the Grade 3 Dania Beach on the turf at Gulfstream. Untamed Domain figured to be odds-on off a just-miss 2nd in the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf. But his figures weren't anything special and he was a deep closer in a crowded field. I liked Todd Pletcher's Gidu who was stepping up off a MSW win in a turf sprint to this two-turn graded event. He figured to be a fair price and he was at 5/2. Right to the front, dogged by the 4/1 third choice to the top of the lane they dueled to the wire and from where I sat I really thought I'd won....
Nope, that's me on the inside.....sooooo close :( It was time for the finale at Tampa, but there was a delay and so I watched from the Fair Grounds as Leslie May swept to the front in the slop and edged clear to win a MSW two-turn event and perhaps put herself in line to try stakes company next time out. Finally they were in the gate for the Tampa turf finale. I really liked Tolstoy who had been second in a MSW at Keeneland in a sprint last fall. But he had the breeding to handle the turf of this maiden claiming race. If even close to what his connections thought of his talent when they laid out $535K for him he'd win under one of the better Tampa riders, Daniel Centeno. He was listed at a ridiculous 20/1 by the Daily Racing Form and I noted that if he was well bet I'd up the bet. He was 2/1 in the official program and I knew I'd up the bet, so I did. He went right to the front, was challenged through the turn, but repelled those rivals and edged clear late.
The initial $5 bet had been upped, that's right, to a "PRIME TIME" play for my ninth win on the day! But far and away the best story of the day surrounded the featured Grade 2, $350K Holy Bull for three-year-olds on the Florida Derby trail. As I handicapped the card on Thursday in Orlando while visiting our son Brad, his wife, and our adorable grandson Oliver, I first noted that this was a very competitive field of eleven sophomores, none of which stood out. And, I noted, I didn't think MY Derby horse was in here. But after looking over the field I went with the Todd Pletcher colt. After I wrote him up as my choice I was noting the other possible winners and I came to Mississippi who'd drawn post eleven. BUT his last two speed figures were better than anything the rest of the field had run, ever. It hit me that this was the same identical scenario as last week's Pegasus Cup where Gun Runner also had a "Double Beyer Advantage" but was wide. I had stuck with him and he'd won handily. I changed my analysis and copied the comments on Mississippi and pasted them at the top of the analysis to make HIM the triple investment play. When I arrived at Gulfstream and got to my seat in Section 101, Row A I checked the scratches....there were only three from the main body of any of the races, but one of them WAS Mississippi. Now typically when this happens I pass the race because when I list second and third choices they aren't necessarily who I think has the second or third best chance to win. But here, I was struck by all the "signs" from the "Racing Gods." First, I'd originally made the Pletcher colt my top pick; now the horse I'd put over him was out; it was Super Bowl week and to make a change would be to "call an audible" in football jargon. The Pletcher colt's name.....AUDIBLE - could the signs be any more aligned that I was meant to bet him? My original analysis is on the right - the one I printed on the left:
As the field left the gate Audible found himself in a perfect tracking position. At the top of the far turn he made his move and was immediately followed by one of the betting choices. As they began to straighten for the sprint to the first finish line the track announcer called out it would be a "classic confrontation." But that lasted about two jumps before Audible found another gear and drew off with authority. His winning time was only a couple of clicks off the track record! And to add to the story, he paid a whopping $8.40 so with my triple investment I'd cash for over $60 and had drawn nearly even on the 2-for-10 Gulfstream bets for the day! Oh my!
Very impressive Mr. Mark!
Holy Bull Day Highlights
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