It was an extended week of racing due to the holiday Monday and special racing cards at Gulfstream and several other tracks. Here's the story on what started out as a slow week, but finished with a rush to be another very successful week at the races!
Wednesday February 14 - Valentines Day
When I headed out for the day at Gulfstream I really thought I had a very, VERY solid play in the second race. But he finished second at odds-on....turned out he was the first of not two, not three, not four, but FIVE runner-up finishes from my six selections. I decided to up the bet on Mitchell Road in the 6th, the last race I watched live and he went wire to wire to give me the big win on the day. But as I walked out through the breeze-way and checked on the payouts I saw that there was both an objection and an INQUIRY. I truly didn't think my horse deserved to come down, but I've seen runners taken down for less and EVERYONE standing around me was convinced he was coming down. But in the end they let the winner stand. And I topped the day by purchasing a new polo shirt that was (a) on sale and (b) an different color. And then we ended the day by heading to Coldstone to share a Valentines' ice cream treat. Our celebration was dulled because today there was a mass shooting at Douglas High School just ten minutes up the Sawgrass Expressway from our home. Very sad.
Thursday February 15
Well, the good news is that I might, just MIGHT have found my Kentucky Derby horse and he won as my BET of the Day! The bad news is that he won at Tampa and I went 0-for-6 at Gulfstream for the day. Magnum Moon had debuted in a sprint at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher on Saturday January 13th and you may remember him from my journal that day when we were in New Orleans. He was my BET of the Day, and despite being a Pletcher first time starting 3yo at Gulfstream he paid a whopping $9.20 and I cashed for over $135. Today he was running in a Tampa two-turn allowance and with last Saturday being the Grade 3 Sam Davis, a Derby prep, I just had the feeling that this was Magnum Moon's test. His 95 Beyer in that first start was light years better than any number the rest of the field had earned and he had all the right numbers to stretch out in distance. I thought it was very significant that the leading rider at Gulfstream, Luis Saez gave up all his mounts for the day to ride in this single race. He waited patiently in fourth to the far turn and then glided the odds-on favorite into the clear and he floated by four wide without taking a deep breath. He scored in near track-record time and now it's on to the Derby trail for him!
Friday February 16
A much, MUCH improved day of handicapping today! The first selection came in the second, a maiden special for three-year-olds. And as I wrote in my analysis, it's important when handicapping to use ALL the resources you can to find the winning angle. Mike Welsch is the DRF analyst for South Florida and "his thing" is morning workouts. So much so that he is THE DRF guy that posts videos for the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby, all Triple Crown events and the Breeders' Cup. So when he mentions a work in his daily analysis it's worth paying attention. Secondly, he is not one to pick chalk, much less as his best bet. So when he made Noble Commander, a first time starter from Mark Casse's barn as his BEST BET based on his works, that made me pay very close attention. Pressed and dueled through the turn and the stretch, and while it wasn't an easy win, it was a win and I did cash on a triple investment to kick off the day!
In the seventh I liked Sumner. It was a $30K two-lifetime claiming event and I was hopeful to get a fair price on Todd Pletcher's runner. He'd been a "Pletcher Plunger" when going to the $12.5K level to get his win, but he did it with authority with top rider Luis Saez on board. He stuck with the colt today and I thought the turn back from a one-turn mile to the seven panels was a perfect fit. It was also a plus that the favorite looked very beatable. His speed figures said he should be the winner, but he was first off the claim for Jane Cibelli and she was just 1-for-21 with those over the last two years. I mentioned that Race 4 might provide a clue to this one as another Cibelli "first-off-the-claim" was running. In that race the Cibelli runner was the 4/5 favorite and was second! Sumner tracked the Cibelli runner, who was indeed the even-money favorite, overtook him in he lane and drew off as much the best!
But best of all, he was a big 3/1 leading to a payoff of nearly $45! In the finale I was hoping trainer Mark Casse would provide me with my second winner from his barn with March to the Arch. He'd closed some ground in his debut on Holy Bull Saturday going two turns on the turf despite slow fractions. With any help up front he should win, I thought. His main rival did have Saez in the irons and was exiting a second place finish. But that was at Tampa and the initial speed figure of March to the Arch was a pole better. Went off at a more than fair 5/2 and blew by the field, going last to first and looked LONG GONE for the win in mid-stretch, but then Saez got busy on his colt and the final margin was narrow, but a winning one. Cashed out for nearly $40 as I closed the day a much, much improved 3-for-6!
Saturday February 17: Risen Star Stakes Day at the Fair Grounds
I had begun handicapping on Wednesday for today and by the time I arrived at the track I had nearly forty selections from seven different tracks including multiple graded stakes at both the Fair Grounds where it was their final step to the Louisiana Derby and at Laurel where it was "Winter Carnival Day." Also at Gulfstream there were ELEVEN starter stakes from the twelve race program.
Risen Star Day Highlights - Part 1
Risen Star Day Highlights - Part 2
It was an excellent day at the races as I cashed on 14 tickets (37%) and had a clear profit. Click HERE to read the specific stories from this big day at Gulfstream!
Sunday February 18
After starting the day by losing the first three races I was not anticipating a good day, but that quickly turned around! The sixth race was a starter optional claiming event sprinting five furlongs on the turf. As I wrote, I wouldn't argue with anyone who wasn't willing to trust the favorite, Oak Bluffs who had run second in back-to-back-to-back races AND the barn was a struggling 23/1-7-4 for the meet. However, those second place efforts had come in the $100K Claiming Crown Canterbury behind the course record holder (and my BET of the Day) Pay Any Price and the Gulfstream Park Turf Championship behind multiple stakes winning Rainbow Heir, sandwiched around a six wide trip. The drop into claiming company had to help. Secondly, the barn.....yesterday one of my big wins was with Page McKenney and HE went for this barn - maybe they're heating up? Paco Lopez had the mount and he pressed the front runner into the lane, took the lead willingly turning for home and then looked long gone. But a closer was gobbling up ground and it looked like Oak Bluffs was going to settle for second again, but Paco had just enough left to get him home for my first winner on the day!
The ninth was my BEST of the afternoon. It was a maiden event going nine furlongs on the turf and I really, REALLY liked Blockade. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is known for NOT having his runners at 100% for their debut so when one runs well early, you need to pay attention. He had run third in his initial try and then was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths second time out BUT had been blocked through the lane. He paired that figure with a second here in his most recent, but it was significant that the winner came RIGHT BACK TO WIN and the show colt was a highly regarded maiden winner in his next start. The only threat in the field looked to be Unleveraged who was in post ten. But his figure last time out of 63 paled in comparison to the 77 earned by Blockade. My plan was to be $30 to WIN! But when I checked the scratches, Unleveraged had been withdrawn! Upped the bet to $50 to WIN! Blockade tracked leaders into the turn, seemed to glide up effortlessly to challenge, but as they turned for home he seemed to stall. But at the furlong pole he shifted into a new gear and blew by as MUCH the best! HORRAY! But wait.....INQUIRY! As I watched the head-on replay it looked to me like the front runner had come out into Blockade and cut off the runner who was objecting. After several views the stewards ruled in my favor and I did indeed have my second winner on the day, sealing a winning day!
Monday February 19: Presidents' Day
I handicapped both the Gulfstream card and the Oaklawn card as it was Southwest Stakes Day at Oaklawn Park today - the first step towards the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby, and it had supporting stakes on the undercard. My first pick on the holiday card scratched so I made my first bet in Race 3, an entry level allowance sprint. One thing I have noted over the several years I've followed racing, especially here at Gulfstream is that Todd Pletcher does exceptionally well with experienced runners in their first start after moving into his barn. Ascertain was a filly who'd run well here last year and was exiting a stakes try last summer. Another strong Pletcher win angle is the long layoff. She was working bullets and wow did she run to her odds and works - blew by on the turn and romped by a pole as the popular favorite.
Carried my triple investment to the wire for my first score of the day! Missed on Chad Brown's debuting turf filly Touch of Gold who was fifth at even money. And then came one of the two very interesting races of the day....it was the seventh, a maiden special for sophomore fillies going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Todd Pletcher had entered Miss Sophia's Star here. She'd lost her debut, as the favorite, at GPW; came back and lost as the odds-on choice here in December - as my top pick; came back and dropped into a $50K spot, lost as the favorite, as my top pick; and then lost again for $50K on the dirt, again as my pick. NEVER let a Pletcher 3yo get away, but she'd burned so much money and was not bred for grass. So I compromised on the program favorite with just a minimum bet. New jockey Tyler Gafflione put her on the lead and she relished the grass surface. Wire to wire in ultra-impressive fashion! And best of all, she was allowed to go off at a big 4/1 price allowing me to cash for $25 even though I only had the minimum on her!
The ninth was a MSW for 3yo fillies and I liked Pletcher's Shanghai Shuffle. She was hammered down to 3/2 favoritism but freaked in the gate and scratched. Next up was the fifth from Oaklawn, a money-added allowance going a two-turn mile. There were multiple angles pointing out Dazzling Gem from the strong Brad Cox barn. First, the inside post is a huge advantage in a two-turn mile race where it's a short run to the first turn; secondly, Dazzling Gem had seen nothing but stakes action since winning a November 2016 allowance race; had the fastest speed figure in the field AND was third off the shelf with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens up. Staked in third to the turn, angled off the rail and was L-O-N-G gone!
Cashed for $15 on the double-down investment - which in hind sight I should have had more on this one. The eighth at Oaklawn was the Grade 3 $500K Razorback Handicap and it was one of the BEST handicapping lessons of the winter! There are so, so many angles that can point out winners, but one of the best at finding big price plays is what's called a "Trainer Pattern." Here you look for a runner who had success previously when following the same pattern he's following today. Check out the past performances for #3 Hawaakom who was 10/1 in the program:
Last year, coming off the layoff he'd run in the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and earned a strong 98 Beyer figure. He then shipped to Oaklawn and ran in the Grade 3 Razorback with an improved and career-best Beyer of 101. Note he was second best behind Horse of the Year Gun Runner who rattled off six straight Grade 1 wins including the Breeders' Cup Classic and $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Fast forward to 2017-18.....came off a layoff last time out to run where.....IN THE LOUISIANA Stakes and earned a near identical 96; now ships to Oaklawn for the Grade 3 Razorback! UH OH! And he's 10/1? He was 8/1 as they loaded into the gate and I was watching live online while we were entertaining four friends. As they entered the gate I re-checked the pp's to see his running style, off the pace so don't be worried when he's not near the front I told myself. He was mid-pack in an ideal spot I thought down the backstretch. Approaching the far turn he began to move up and when he hit the turn I could see he was accelerating and beginning to pass horses. But now jockey Corey Lanerie had to make a choice. To get clear run he'd have to float nearly eight or nine wide and that would almost certainly lose so much ground he would never get there in time. He elected to stay on the rail and as heads turned for home the narrowest of openings cracked on the rail.....Lanerie accelerated into it. As track announcer Vic Stauffer called, "...you'd better watch out for Hawaakom if he can get through...." I jumped out of my stool at our new island and began jumping up and down. Our friends looked at me with wide eyes and I shouted, I am about to win $90! Hawaakom drew off to win convincingly! The Upset Of The Day had come through thanks to excellent interpretation of the past performances. Better yet, the final odds were better than 9/1 so he paid $20.80 and I was cashing out for over $100! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Missed in the Grade 3 Royal Delta at Gulfstream when my pick, favorite Lewis Bay was handled too confidently I thought and run down by Martini Glass at $18.40 and I'd written she intrigued me as an upset choice....sigh.....then finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes, a neck away from third where I would have got my money back, oh well. Who can complain about a four-for-seven day where I made so much money!
Presidents' Week Racing Highlights
Wednesday Feb 14 - Monday Feb 19
For the extended week I had excellent numbers......
I had spent multiple hours handicapping on Thursday and Friday and arrived at Gulfstream about 11:30 with nearly forty selections on my print-out, ready for a big day of racing! The day started off at a leisurely pace, but became frenetic by the time we hit mid-afternoon as not only was I betting and watching races from two, three, and sometimes four tracks nearly simultaneously but I was also "spending the day virtually" at the races with both my buddy Keith in Illinois and my oldest son Jeff in Kansas as they both were playing online and texting and/or calling throughout the afternoon. It made for a great day of racing let me tell you! The first four plays were all from Gulfstream so I had nearly half an hour between races and didn't hit one until the third race. It was the Lady Bird Stakes going seven furlongs. The prohibitive program favorite was invader Chella. She'd won FIVE of seven tries at this difficult seven furlong distance which that alone gave her an edge. But also, despite being based at "minor league" Fort Erie she'd shipped out to Delaware, Mountaineer, the Fair Grounds, and Tampa to win multiple races. She was listed as the even money favorite. The locals were enamored by lightly raced Areclor on the rail and Starship Reina who looked to be the speed of the race under Paco Lopez. The late money came on the former under top jockey Luis Saez. As Starship Reina led them into the turn Chella closed the gap but looked to be under heavy urging from her rider while the leader was traveling comfortably, didn't look good for me. But they the competitiveness of the program favorite kicked in and a stretch-long duel was on. In the final two hundred chards my choice edged clear and was safely home before Saez had his fast closing filly get into action. My first win of the day!
And the best part was with all the late betting on the local horse Chella had floated all the way up to $6.80 on her payout allowing me to cash for nearly $35 and suddenly I was ahead for the day! Over the span of the next four race selections and an hour on the clock my choice chased the loose-on-the-lead front runner in each instance and came up short - 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd - as all but one of those winners were price plays. So I felt like I was "owed" a front end victory when I had Beach Waltz listed as my top choice on the rail in the Mrs. President's Stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Gulfstream. Eclipse Award winning rider Jose Ortiz was on board and I was certain he'd secure the front and coast all the way around the course, so much so that I upped the bet from a double to a triple investment! But right away there was pace pressure and a wider-drawn stretch out runner was insistent on the front and cut Beach Waltz off. Ortiz had to take hold of his filly and she was shuffled back three positions into fourth. But here was why he won the best jockey of the year award. Rather than force the issue and try to duel on the front he got his mount settled and tracked the leader through the turn. Once they turned for home he got her clear and set sail for the wire. He opened up at the furlong pole and was clear, holding off the late runners for my second win on the local card.
I was cashing for nearly $40 thanks to my added investment! The first of my scratches wiped out my next bet at Aqueduct, which led to a humorous exchange between Keith and I as he asked if there were any more scratches in New York. I replied he could figure this out on his xpressbet account. Then he asked if there were any more bets in New York, and I replied - belatedly as I had three races running simultaneously - that they were all listed on my selection sheet. Finally he called, during a race so I called him back and discovered that he wanted to know if there was another bet in THAT specific race.....ha ha ha, as I told him it would have been a lot simpler if he were at the races LIVE with me, and he replied that this day was coming - this is his last full year of teaching before he joins Kim and I in retirement (it's her last year as well). I was a late running third at Gulfstream before it was time for the first of the Laurel stakes races on the Winter Carnival card. The John B. Campbell card was a nine furlong event and the favorite, Afleet Willy not only looked to be clearly the best and fastest horse, but the LONE SPEED of the race. He was being hammered in the early betting and there were two scratches, so I decided like the Chella race to up the bet. As they came onto the track for the post parade it looked like the reception on the simulcast screen was not very good, but then I could tell it wasn't that, it was snow blowing across the camera and the wind looked like it was very intense. Laurel does NOT look like a destination for a weekend racing adventure today, but it's where I'll meet my good buddy Jim Anderson in about a month. 'Willy went right to the front but was being hounded by the 2/1 second choice all the way to the far turn. I could tell, having watched a few races in my day :) that while the rival was being hard pressed to keep up Afleet Willy's jockey was sitting chilly. As they entered the turn they'd had enough of that one and easily opened up on him. Clear into the lane he looked long gone. Inside the final sixteenth either the nine furlong distance or the early pace pressure appeared to being wearing on Willy as the field came closing in, but they were too late, and I'd won again - cashing for close to another forty dollars!
The Laurel race was no longer official than they were hitting the top of the stretch in Hot Springs, Arkansas where I liked Olivia's Uncle in their second race. When I'd cashed my initial winning tickets I was $1 short of rounding it up to $50 so one of my favorite tellers, Karen - of the twins Kimberly and Karen - watched me take a dollar out of my wallet and said I'd have to pay myself back later. So when I cashed this set of tickets I showed her that I was paying myself back, and we shared a chuckle....just another fun anecdote from a day at the races!
Next up was the Miracle Wood Stakes from Laurel and by now the snow was REALLY coming down, so much so you couldn't hardly see the runners on the far turn. Still Having Fun and Wentz had nearly identical Beyers and the latter was coming off a maiden wire-to-wire win while 'Fun was exiting a stakes race. The additional ground looked ideal as they were stretching to seven furlongs today. As the field turned for home Still Having Fun was in fourth and the top three floated very wide into the lane. The rider of 'Fun was smart and ducked inside while the others dueled down the middle of the track and got my top choice up in time.
Another triple investment that I would cash for an even thirty buckaroos! After missing on the next two plays I went through a strong set of selections where I cashed on five of seven. The first came in the first of the seven stakes on the Fair Grounds card, the Colonel Power Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf. While I thought there was legitimate concern for the favorite Holding Gold being best, I also thought that if you were willing to be a little creative in your filtering of his past performances he was a standout. If you filtered out everyone of the five furlong turf sprints - too short for him - you were left with one at six furlongs and four at 5 1/2 furlongs. Those had earned him Beyer figures of 105, 107, 100, 89, and 96 which made him an obvious favorite. Two of those had been wins and one was in a Grade 2 event AND he was exiting the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint where he'd been beaten only 1 3/4 length. At the top of the stretch he looked to be out of it, but John Velazquez had him in high gear and inside the final sixteenth he came rolling by to run down the longshot leader and win going away.
Collected almost twenty dollars - I was watching on my phone from my seat in the grandstand at Gulfstream because they were loading into the gate for the Rough and Ready Stakes going a one-turn mile. Aztec Sense had won three of his last four with the only loss coming in the $100K Claiming Crown Rapid Transit when bumped hard and immediately last of a bulky field of fourteen before rallying to be 4th, beaten only two lengths. He looked to be the clear front runner and this just appeared so very similar to so many Monmouth races where Paco Lopez would be on the front coasting and give that "condescending look" under his shoulder to the other riders like, "Are you seriously thinking of trying to catch me" before he'd roll to victory. I made him a prime time play. JUST AS FORSEEN! Right to the front, even gave "the look" and wired the field as much the best. Everyone saw him as the likely winner, but still cashed for nearly $35 on my seventh winner of the day!
Risen Star Stakes Day Highlights
Part 1
I missed on two out of town races before I was back at Laurel where it was near-blizzard conditions....and I WANT to go here? Of the multiple stakes here in Maryland, this three-year-old race at a one-turn mile, The Wide Country, looked the most wide open to me. But I thought Enchanted Ghost looked best and good enough to play. She'd won closing in a sprint, then won at a one-turn mile. In her most recent she'd chased today's rival, Last True Love, in a six furlong sprint and had just missed catching her. The added ground played to her favor today. She stalked to the turn and blew by as easily best. Only had the minimum but still cashed for nearly fifteen dollars.
Next on my sheet was the Grade 3 Mineshaft from the Fair Grounds for older horses. When Jim and I had been in New Orleans I had picked Cedartown in the Louisiana Stakes as my upset special at 10/1 and that race served as the prep for this. He won, but was bet down to 3/1 and I liked him even more today. But when I got to Gulfstream he was scratched. I had listed only one alternative but didn't like him to win so I thought I'd pass the race. I decided to look on my Fair Grounds selection sheet to see who their handicapper liked and at first glance I dismissed his pick because I had seen The Player in the Louisiana Stakes and didn't think he could win that day or today. But then I noted the comment, "....since adding blinkers been blazing in the mornings...." Oh wait, really? I looked it up and he had whistled through three morning work outs since the addition of the shades - a best of 75 bullet, a best of 103 work, and a blistering best of 33 in a wicked :59.3 for five furlongs. Uh oh, he looks really dangerous, especially with Cedartown out. I texted both Keith and Jeff that with the scratch I was going triple-times on The Player. Right to the front and was never asked while drawing off by daylight!
Cashed for another $30 and change! WHOOOO HOOOOO! Right back in my next selection, an allowance at Aqueduct where I liked Preservationist. He'd only been out three times and his last was a maiden win, but if he ran to this three similar Beyers - 92-92-94 - he was your winner. He did win, but when they "ran" through the stretch, oh they were struggling home! Still cashed for over $30 again on my tenth win of the day. Next up was the BET of the DAY and it was from Tampa. Originally I'd debated about playing Tampa at all because THEIR big day had been last weekend. But the Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita all had late post times and I knew I wouldn't have a lot of bets from Laurel or Aqueduct, so if there were to be any early afternoon plays, other than Gulfstream they'd have to come from Tampa. As I started scanning through I found a couple horses I liked, but then in their co-feature, there he was.....multiple graded stakes winning sprinter XY Jet! When I had him in the Sunshine Millions - after I'd had him in the Gr 3 Mr. Prospector - I had read that the Millions was to be his final prep before heading to Dubai to run in the Group 2, $2 Million Golden Shaheen. So what was he doing in this listed $100K spot? I looked it up online and his trainer Jorge Navarro explained that his options were a series of six works to lead up to the Dubai race or he could get a race in him here, and this looked like a good spot on the calendar. My only questions were - (a) how hard would they push in a $100K race with $2 Million on the line down the road, and (b) how would he handle the very sandy Tampa main track? Still he looked TONS the best, even if he ran a "B" race. As they were warming up I was watching in the Gulfstream Breezeway and a fellow race fan came up and said, "One to Nine - who'd bet a horse like that!" We had a conversation about betting for value vs. betting for winners and when the odds clicked up to 1-5 I told him on THIS horse in THIS field, that was stealing. As they approached the gate the fellow said, his odds will drop once they leave the gate, don't you think? Probably I said. Right to the front went XY Jet and ran them off their feet in a dazzling near-track record time. And the best part....not only did his odds NOT go down.....they went UP to 2/5.
That's right, cashed for $70 on my big bet - how do you let that happen! Thank you "value bettors!" One of the best stories came with my next selection, the Al Stall Memorial at the Fair Grounds going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf. When Jim and I were there Mom's On Strike had rallied late to win the prep for this and though she was unbeaten over the New Orleans grass I thought just maybe she'd peaked in that race so I went against her - she was the #6 horse. Instead I went with #11 Susie Bee who had Beyers that compared nicely and was a 6x turf winner. She could spring the upset. But she trailed throughout and was wide turning for home, a non-factor. As I watched on my phone I put it down and went through my tickets before heading downstairs to bet the next sequence of races and I started tossing the losing tickets. $10 to WIN on the FG Race 6, on #11, yep, the Susie Bee ticket - toss. Next, $10 to WIn on the FG Race 6, on #6.....wait, what? That's supposed to be on RACE 7 - oh wait a minute.....race 6, number 6.....hold on a tic, THAT'S Mom's On Strike's number. I AM A WINNER! So for my $20 bet I cashed for $29 :) What a day I'm having!
After missing on the next four it was time for the next-to-last live race at Gulfstream. This was a main track event going a mile-and-a-sixteenth, so that meant (a) they'd start right in front of me, but they would use the first-line finish line, with the short stretch run. The field looked pretty evenly matched and then I saw him.....what is Page McKenney doing in here? He's a Maryland-based runner who rarely leaves the Mid-Atlantic circuit except for an occasional trip to Philadelphia to run in a Parx race. In fact, he'd run in the Pennsylvania Derby Championship on Pennsylvania Derby Day last fall at Parx and had won as my upset pick at a big 6/1. In this field he was CLEARLY the class of the field as he made his eight-year-old debut. He'd raced thirty-five times with TWENTY wins and fifteen second place finish good for earnings of close to $2 Million. His trainer had been struggling here (23/1-7-1) but I thought this was more than off-set by the fact that Page McKenney was a remarkable 10-for-14 at this 8 1/2 furlong distance. And in spite of all this, he was a huge 6/1 in the program. I remarked in my analysis that even at half that he would be stealing. He sat a perfect trip under top NYRA rider Irad Ortiz, tracking three speedsters into the far turn. When given his cue he responded immediately and accelerated right by them all to take command mid-way on the turn. He was daylight in front turning for home and I knew it was all over - I'd won my thirteenth race as he was easily best.
And the very best part, he'd been a big 4/1 on the board, paying $10 - so I was cashing for $50! WHAT a day, indeed. Disappointed when I ran 2nd in the Fair Grounds Handicap on the turf when Mr. Misunderstood took his first career loss on the grass, finishing second at 6/5. I really thought that Instilled Regard - who'd been my choice in the Fair Grounds' Lecomte, the prep for the Risen Star today would repeat. But he ran flatly at 7/5 to be fourth when the winner was 20/1 and the runner-up 40/1! The finale at Gulfstream was the Little Magician Stakes going 8 furlongs on the turf. It looked the prime example of the adage, "turf winners win turf races" with ten-time turf winner Sinatra having that big edge. Looked to be a lot of speed for him to rally into. He was sent off at a generous 5/2 price and he came with his run on the outside, but was followed by a longshot runner. The two of them dueled through the stretch while another closer came up the rail.....PHOTO FINISH! Second, but I had thought it curious that the track announcer said as they hit the line, "Photo finish, too close to call but it looked like Montclair was drifting in" - immediately the INQUIRY sign went up and then they announced that the third place finisher was claiming foul against both the winner AND ME! As I watched the replay you could see the "winner" lugged in from about the eight-path to the two-patch forcing Sinatra into the path of the third place finisher, but CLEARLY the winner was coming down as he didn't just bump me, he drove me all the way to the rail. Then the announcement, "Ladies and gentlemen, the stewards have made a disqualification...." YES! I've got my fourteenth and final winner on the day and it's worth almost forty dollars! Thank you stewards!
For the day I finished with nearly 40% wins and a profit of over $25. While you can say there were several things that DID break in my favor allowing me to have the winning day - the switch to The Player in the Mineshaft, the "surprise" winner on the double ticket in the Al Stall, and the DQ "win" from second place finish, but I did win those. If I'd have NOT lost this photo on Surprise Jubilee in the Gulfstream's eighth race, I'd have cashed for another $75 or more and had a $100 day.....oh so close......
You just don't find many weeks that produce the kind of handicapping results I had this week. It started out great and ended even better! I continue to have remarkable, and unprecedented success with my handicapping at the Championship Meeting and I am oh-so-hopeful that it continues through the final six weeks. But at this point, this winter and this week in particular have been just amazing. Here's how it all played out.....
Wednesday February 7
When I sat down Tuesday morning with my coffee and began the handicapping for the week I was determined to live up to my promise to myself to head out to the races at least once during the week as well as to be there for the big Saturday of racing. But I was also very conscious of "letting the race come to me" and not trying to "make a race" be the bet. Through the first few races I didn't think that this Wednesday card would be "the one" that would let me make the drive to Hallandale Beach, but by the time I was done I DID think I had a good chance to see a few winners live. None that were "BET of the Day" worthy but solid enough to enjoy a few hours in the warm Florida winter sunshine. I didn't have a bet in the opener, but I did have a pick. I was trying to time my arrival to be at the track between the first and second but the trip was so smooth I arrived five minutes before post time and I considered playing my top choice because all three of the Gulfstream analysts had the same runner on top. We can't ALL be wrong, can we? But then I said, "be calm, wait and watch....you didn't like it enough to make it a bet, so don't bet it." Oh so prophetic! The runner was close, but second - would have been a loss. In the second I had a play, but not at first glance. Post position 2 belonged to Put Em Up, the 2/1 program favorite. But he'd won last time out in the cheapest of maiden claimers. I don't like to play last out maiden winners generally, and most especially maiden claimers, especially bottom-level maiden claimers. His speed figure had been a pokey 42 - that's not going to win many races. But then I scanned his rivals in this non-winners of two lifetime sprint.....they had records of 1-for-24, 1-for-21, 1-for-17, 1-for-17, 1-for-28, and 1-for-13 (with a rider that was 2-for-25). Could there be a weaker field? I think not. I made him the bet under jockey Tyler Gafflione. Right to the front and the rest of the field of "no, no, I don't want to win, you go ahead runners" just let him coast to the wire. Put Em Up had been 1/9 early on, then 1/5 but his odds kept floating up and at post time he was an inflated 6/5. My double investment netted me nearly $25 on the first bet of the week! WHOOOO HOOOOOO!
Race 3 was a maiden claimer and it was even more undecipherable than the first race; but again I considered betting because several of the "pros" liked my pick. But again I resisted...and again I was prophetically correct as the pick ran third. Under typical circumstances I'd probably have passed the fourth as well, but the DRF's Mike Welsch made Caloric his "BEST of the Day." I knew this runner because last time out he'd won for me as a "Pletcher Plunger" - dropping out of MSW company to a maiden claimer and won for fun. But he'd been claimed away. And that was something I thought was a positive in this circumstance because new trainer Jason Servis was winning 40% of his first off the claim runners. Add that to Welsch's "best" angle and I decided I'd go along for the ride. He pressed the pace through the turn, swung out three wide to take over but was immediately challenged by my second choice, an older, multiple winner (albeit vs. cheaper). But jockey Irad Ortiz, well known for his patience, had plenty left and he let Caloric loose as he ran to the wire first, and suddenly I'm two-for-two! Oh what a good way to start the week!
The next race was a turf event and I went with a price play. Six-to-one leaving the gate my horse pressed the issue into the far turn and I thought, hey - maybe.....but then he stopped like he was shot to finish 9th. Well, you can't reasonably expect to win EVERY race :) Next up was another double investment choice for me, Carbon Data on the turf going 8 1/2 furlongs vs. $16K non-winners of three lifetime. I didn't want to invest more because this guy had just won a $30K nw2L. So I had mixed feelings.....on the upside, out of a 2-lifetime into a 3-lifetime spot he WOULD fit better dropping in class, but if you'd just won for $30K wouldn't you want to maybe try OPEN runners for say $20K? Why "give" the horse away? But as I wrote in my analysis, I could as easily see him winning for fun as losing....he was trained by top North American turf conditioner Chad Brown and had Hall of Fame rider Javier Castellano in the irons. So, ok, I'm on board. But while I was in the paddock watching the three analysts talk about the race they noted that ALL THREE of them liked this guy on top and TWO of them had singled him in the multi-race wagers. AND he was being played strongly not only to win but in all the multi-race payouts. I thought about it and then made the big decision - I'm upping the bet! The gates sprung open and Castellano took him right to the front. Never, ever challenged and he walked with it by daylight!
Oh that's right my friends, I didn't just up the bet by adding an additional $5, I upped the bet from the original $10 by an additional $20! WHAT A DAY! I decided to head for home at this point, it was close to 3 pm and I wanted to miss the rush hour traffic. I had three more selections, but none of them won....but thanks to the increased wager on Carbon Data I had not only had a big day percentage wise (38%) but also I had made a profit for the day. And most importantly the winners had come while I was there watching live!
Wednesday February 7 Highlights
Thursday February 8
When I handicapped the Thursday card and finished I thought to myself, "....this is just one of "those" cards" where you have some picks, you win a couple and you grind away again tomorrow...." From the ten race card I had four selections, three were a double investment and the "best bet" was simply a triple investment. I watched the live feed from home as I worked on the computer and then waited for Kim to come home. In the opener my horse had scratched, so I wasn't playing. But as I listened to the three analysts they all talked about what a significant scratch this was and how it simply left my second choice, Sun of Tara, as CLEARLY the one to beat. I looked at the betting pools and probable payoffs for the early double and thought, "....I think they are right.....he IS the one to beat..." and so I didn't stick with the double investment, but I did make the bet. He was held snugly by Jose Ortiz to the turn, then glided three wide for clear run and accelerated by to win decisively. WOW, what a smart guy I am to make this decision!
The second race had initially been a PASS race at first glance when I first saw the favorite in post position one, I thought to myself, "This would have to be a REALLY soft maiden field for this guy to win" - and it could not have been much softer! Transistor had earned a field best 72 Beyer last time out and THAT figure would win for fun, but it was also way out of line with his most recent figures. So here was my thinking......IF you toss that number and he ran back to one of the three previous numbers (59-50-53) the best LIFETIME number his rivals had earned were 33-39-45-49-52. So the lone threat appeared to be the outside drawn runner who had one time earned a 52. But he came from a barn winning at a meager 6% - yes SIX - and he'd been beaten by Transistor earlier in the meet, decisively! I'm in for double the bet. He had Javier Castellano on today and I've said many times that over the last two years he just isn't riding like he was when he was the best jockey down here for several years running. But to be fair, in the last month he seems to have "returned to form." But here he had Transistor off a step slowly, then was in tight, so he was taken back. He made a move approaching the turn on the rail but was checked out of it....really? But I could see Castellano still had not asked for his best. Waited, waited, then a seam opened, he burst through and was first to the wire. Ok, you get my kudos Mr. Castellano!
Transistor was the prohibitive 1/5 favorite so I wasn't making much profit, but a win is a win! No bet in the third, fourth, or fifth. The sixth was my "best" of the day, Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown. On October 17 he was coming off a long layoff and making his first start for Brown when a sharp second with a big 85 speed figure. So when he showed up here on December 15 he was my top choice. He tracked the leaders, moved to the front, but was nailed by a longshot on the wire. Still, he improved his speed figure to an 88. Third off the shelf, improving figures, he's the bet. It was made more interesting that Mr. Brown had another in here, a highly regarded first time starter that was preferred by at least one of the GP analysts. But I stuck to my guns. I was watching the live feed on our "new" 55" HD television in the newly-designed family room as Johnny Velazquez set him down into the stretch to make the sprint to the wire (he's #1). This time he cleared the field and ran on confidently to victory!
Make it three wins in a row - wow. One more race on the selection sheet - it was the very next race, a turf sprint for allowance runners. I KNEW everyone would be all over Platinum Prince because he had the best speed figures. But one thing I learned when I used to make my own speed figures is that the only TRUE figure is the one earned by the winner. The rest of the field gets THEIR Beyer figure based on what the winner earned. And while they are generally accurate, you always have to question big numbers earned when NOT in winning efforts. Such was the case here as the last win for Platinum Prince had come in February 2016! But he was two guys' top picks, one of those made him his BEST bet. And hottie Acacia Courtney made her BEST in this race with my second choice who DID have the excuse of being fanned seven wide in a KEY race, but in comparing his races to that of my choice, Little Chesney, they looked very similar but her pick was a deep closer and in a bulky field going only five furlongs I thought he might get another wide trip and be compromised. Little Chesney was listed at 9/2 and he was sitting at 5/2 as they loaded into the gate. Then I saw the jockey for Platinum Prince, who was even money, hop off. Then he undid the saddle and pulled the saddle cloth off. BOOOOOO - he was scratched and now all the money went on Little Chesney. He was confidently placed just off two dueling leaders through the turn, then swung out into the clear and ran away to the wire - the closer, never a factor.
My double investment got me back a little under $20 but for the day, a perfect 4-for-4 and I'd made a tidy little profit! WHAT A DAY!
Friday February 9
I had six selections today and I was handicapping the races for the all-out attack on Saturday when I suddenly realized I'd missed the first race, and I had a bet! But, for one of the very few times of the meet I'd gone against a Todd Pletcher horse, one that had won for me last time at a huge $15 payoff, and went with another. My pick ran second to....that's right, the Pletcher colt who paid over $10. At least I didn't lose :) In the third I was "right" but didn't win. Multiple graded stakes sprinter Mind Your Biscuits was running in an allowance sprint and using it as a prep for defense of his title in the Group 2 $2 Million Golden Shaheen on Dubai World Cup Night (which will be run the morning of the Florida Derby!). He'd done this same thing last year and did NOT win, I didn't think he'd be all out today so I went with Todd Pletcher's unbeaten One Liner. He ran third, but Mind Your Biscuits did NOT win, second behind a 16/1 upset winner. I took some satisfaction there. In the fifth I really, REALLY liked Salute With Honor. Trained by Mark Casse this guy was coming off a layoff, but he'd twice run HUGE off a break and he had a best-of-28 bullet to reinforce my feeling that he'd run big today. He'd been third to Pletcher's One Liner and second in a Tampa stakes last year. Today he dropped out of OPEN stakes and OPEN allowance to run in an Allowance-Optional Claimer for state-breds which allowed runners in for the cheap $12.5K price tag. If he was ready he'd win by daylight. He was away slowly and in a six furlong sprint that's not the ideal situation. He was still near the back as the field hit the far turn, but he began to hit is stride. Still fourth at the furlong marker, but he was FLYING up the rail and cleared the field at the 16th pole and drew off easily. The best news.....he was nearly 5/2 on the board!
The prime time investment meant I'd cash for almost $70 and despite this being the LONE WINNER on the day for me, I made a profit of almost $10. Three profitable days in a row and I'm clicking at a nice win percentage for the week heading into the big day.
Saturday February 10: Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day
Click HERE to read the journals about the big TEN-win day at the races that lasted from 11 am until midnight! What a marathon!
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Part 1
Tampa Bay Festival Preview Day Highlights
Part 2
Sunday February 11
In spite of how great the rest of the week had been today was one of THE BEST days of the winter. I think perhaps part of why I say this is because my buddy Keith had finally arrived in the 21st century by joining xpressbet so now he can play the races without actually going to the track. So he'd begun to follow my picks and today he was actually going to play them. It's worth noting that I ALLOW him to play my picks without charging him a subscription and that's particularly noteworthy as the very first time we went to the races together he said, very emphatically "You have to buy YOUR OWN Racing Form, you can't use mine!" Well, look who's the tuff guy now!
But what made the day even better is this.....I've written about this before but it's still so often true. When I handicap every day, especially here at Gulfstream, I can't tell you how many times I am at the track on Saturday playing multiple tracks and I have a big day. I am in the "glow" of that success and I play on Sunday and have a lack-luster day that takes some of that "glow" off the big day. I try to ignore that and look long term, but it's a fact. So I have often considered either not playing the next day or being ultra-conservative in my handicapping. And that's more the usual, though I don't think you'd find I have a significantly smaller number of selections or bet a significantly less amount of money most Sundays. So any way, Saturday morning I was up early and I handicapped the Sunday card before heading out. I consciously thought about being very sure of my selections and not taking any "chances" - stick to what you KNOW is a good bet. Right away I had a pick in the opener and then I had not one, not two, but not three races in a row where I was very disciplined and didn't like anyone well enough to invest. But in five of the next six races I liked someone and in two of them I liked my pick B-I-G time. Oh I'm going out on a limb here Webby! I decided to make the bets and just watch the replays as Kim was coming home this afternoon from visiting her parents, but I discovered my pick in the opener scratched, so I didn't have anything to watch until Race 5 anyway. Kim was about two and half hours out at post time so I decided I'd watch the first few bets run. In the fifth it was an allowance optional claiming event going 8 1/2 furlongs with the first finish line and on the rail was You're To Blame from the Todd Pletcher camp. While you COULD hold it against him for the two most recent losses in allowance company like this, as I wrote, "Not so fast my friend!" After a steady diet of stakes events - finishing a good second behind West Coast last spring who then won the Grade 1 Travers next time out - he ran in an allowance at Tampa. He was second again, but the key was he nosed out Mo Town for the place and that colt exited to win an allowance and then took down the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby! On the shelf after that Tampa try You're To Blame came back here in December and was third to Jay's Way....and that one came right back to win the Sunshine Millions Classic! Maybe at another track I'd pass on this one, but it's Gulfstream, it's Todd Pletcher. Right to the front and never looked back, the easiest kind of winner!
I missed in the 6th with a Pletcher debut runner in a turf sprint (well, let's be fair, he can't possibly win EVERY 3yo maiden race he enters!) Then I was a sharp third with the upset of the day when Auldwood Lane was 7/1. The seventh was an entry level allowance going a mile and a sixteenth - again the short stretch and first finish line. Keith had called about some things about the online site and we talked about the picks for today. He specifically asked about this one as I liked Hedge Fund and was making him my BET of the Day, investing $30 to win. Keith asked what kind of odds we'd get and I said that I thought we might be lucky enough to get 6/5 because he was coming off a layoff and some might not like that. But I continued to tell him that I know of at least three times I've been in the paddock and they come on the broadcast and SHOW ON THE BIG SCREEN that Todd Pletcher layoff runners of 180 days or more, on the dirt, at Gulfstream win at better than 40%. And, I told Keith, STILL the crowd won't bet them. We both chuckled and I was hopeful we'd get better than even money. So I had the live feed playing on the big TV and as I looked at the early odds I did not see ANY runner with short odds. Wait, is this the right race? I don't think my horse is the number 7 who's favored. NO, Hedge Fund is the 5 horse and he's 3/1. Am I that far off? No, I think I'm that right on! I'm about to be paid. As they approached the gate he took late money and was the 9/5 favorite. Eclipse Award winning jockey Jose Ortiz - who rarely rides for Pletcher - took him right to the front, and I smiled. As they moved down the backstretch his odds changed....didn't drop, they actually went up. Are you serious? He coasted to the wire and when the numbers came up.....
SERIOUSLY? With my $30 win bet I was cashing for nearly $100 and regardless of what happens the rest of the day my two winners have propelled me to a profit of well over $30! Just amazing. I passed the 9th and it was at about this time Kim and I headed out to get a bite to eat. I knew I'd miss watching the last two bets of the day live, but (a) my plan originally had been to watch the replays and (b) I was a guaranteed winner already, and a big winner.....already delighted with the way Sunday had turned out! When we got back home I opened up the replays. In the tenth it was a 2nd level allowance on the turf going an extended nine furlongs. Lucullan was my pick and I thought he was an "upset" pick over the program favorite Black Sea. The latter was from the Chad Brown barn and Javier Castellano has won with 8-of-16 mounts for him. ALL Brown horses on the turf are tough and this was a Euro import as well. BUT, since coming over here he had a single win, in a photo finish, over an allowance field that frankly did not impress. Lucullan on the other hand was from top trainer Kiaran McLaughlin who's the North American trainer for all of the powerful international Shadwell Stable runners. He had shown huge potential last season as a 3yo when just missing in the Grade 3 Hill Prince at Belmont. I like that he'd progressed in each start on the grass and he was Ron Nicoletti's BEST of the day. He stalked in mid pack dropped back to get a clear path then circled wide into the lane and closed with a burst to draw off impressively.
My THIRD win of the day! I'd doubled the bet so I cashed for almost $25 - all clear profit at this point! The last selection of the day was another big bet. I'd seen Ring Weekend win graded stakes as a three-year-old, today he was kicking off his seven-year-old season AND he'd not been to the winner's circle since winning the Grade 2 Seabiscuit in November 2016! Still....eleven of the twelve races in his past performances were stakes and ten of those graded. Only once was he beaten more than 4 3/4 lengths and that had excuses. He's been working sensationally, including a blistering bullet move in :59.2. And finally, of the 155 combined races run by the nine facing him today, ONE would challenge his last THREE numbers. And that one number had been earned in August 2016 with a fifth place finish - unreliable number! As I handicapped the race I made him a "prime time" bet. And at that moment I'd listed Hedge Fund as a $20 win bet. I paused and thought, "Do you like them equally? I know it's Sunday racing, but if you truly think Hedge Fund is a "bet of the day" and you're willing to go $20 on Ring Weekend, you need to up the bet on Hedge Fund." And so I did, making him a $30 play and we all now know how that turned out! (I really did have that thought by the way!) He was near the back as they hit the far turn and then made his move. He was going to be at least five wide when another closer tried to split horses inside of him and that one floated him at least into the seven path. But Ring Weekend exerted his back class and blew by to score going away. No you'd figure, even with his lack of victories of late, that a former Grade 1 winner in an allowance race would be the short-priced favorite.....oh think again wise one.....
OH MY! An astounding payoff of $6.60 led to a payout of nearly $70 for me and suddenly I've had a H-U-G-E day. I chuckled to myself thinking that I'd spent four or five or six hours handicapping for Saturday; had spent over twelve hours "at the races" and had piled up six wins, but lost a little bit. Then today I spend less than an hour handicapping....have only six bets.....and I make a profit of over $120 for the day! What a day, what a week!
