Monday, February 19, 2018

Risen Star Stakes / Winter Carnival Day

Saturday February 17

I had spent multiple hours handicapping on Thursday and Friday and arrived at Gulfstream about 11:30 with nearly forty selections on my print-out, ready for a big day of racing!  The day started off at a leisurely pace, but became frenetic by the time we hit mid-afternoon as not only was I betting and watching races from two, three, and sometimes four tracks nearly simultaneously but I was also "spending the day virtually" at the races with both my buddy Keith in Illinois and my oldest son Jeff in Kansas as they both were playing online and texting and/or calling throughout the afternoon.  It made for a great day of racing let me tell you!  The first four plays were all from Gulfstream so I had nearly half an hour between races and didn't hit one until the third race.  It was the Lady Bird Stakes going seven furlongs.  The prohibitive program favorite was invader Chella.  She'd won FIVE of seven tries at this difficult seven furlong distance which that alone gave her an edge.  But also, despite being based at "minor league" Fort Erie she'd shipped out to Delaware, Mountaineer, the Fair Grounds, and Tampa to win multiple races.  She was listed as the even money favorite.  The locals were enamored by lightly raced Areclor on the rail and Starship Reina who looked to be the speed of the race under Paco Lopez.  The late money came on the former under top jockey Luis Saez.  As Starship Reina led them into the turn Chella closed the gap but looked to be under heavy urging from her rider while the leader was traveling comfortably, didn't look good for me.  But they the competitiveness of the program favorite kicked in and a stretch-long duel was on.  In the final two hundred chards my choice edged clear and was safely home before Saez had his fast closing filly get into action.  My first win of the day!

And the best part was with all the late betting on the local horse Chella had floated all the way up to $6.80 on her payout allowing me to cash for nearly $35 and suddenly I was ahead for the day!  Over the span of the next four race selections and an hour on the clock my choice chased the loose-on-the-lead front runner in each instance and came up short - 3rd, 3rd, 2nd, 2nd - as all but one of those winners were price plays.  So I felt like I was "owed" a front end victory when I had Beach Waltz listed as my top choice on the rail in the Mrs. President's Stakes going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf at Gulfstream.  Eclipse Award winning rider Jose Ortiz was on board and I was certain he'd secure the front and coast all the way around the course, so much so that I upped the bet from a double to a triple investment!  But right away there was pace pressure and a wider-drawn stretch out runner was insistent on the front and cut Beach Waltz off.  Ortiz had to take hold of his filly and she was shuffled back three positions into fourth.  But here was why he won the best jockey of the year award.  Rather than force the issue and try to duel on the front he got his mount settled and tracked the leader through the turn.  Once they turned for home he got her clear and set sail for the wire.  He opened up at the furlong pole and was clear, holding off the late runners for my second win on the local card.

I was cashing for nearly $40 thanks to my added investment!  The first of my scratches wiped out my next bet at Aqueduct, which led to a humorous exchange between Keith and I as he asked if there were any more scratches in New York.  I replied he could figure this out on his xpressbet account.  Then he asked if there were any more bets in New York, and I replied - belatedly as I had three races running simultaneously - that they were all listed on my selection sheet.  Finally he called, during a race so I called him back and discovered that he wanted to know if there was another bet in THAT specific race.....ha ha ha, as I told him it would have been a lot simpler if he were at the races LIVE with me, and he replied that this day was coming - this is his last full year of teaching before he joins Kim and I in retirement (it's her last year as well).  I was a late running third at Gulfstream before it was time for the first of the Laurel stakes races on the Winter Carnival card.  The John B. Campbell card was a nine furlong event and the favorite, Afleet Willy not only looked to be clearly the best and fastest horse, but the LONE SPEED of the race.  He was being hammered in the early betting and there were two scratches, so I decided like the Chella race to up the bet.  As they came onto the track for the post parade it looked like the reception on the simulcast screen was not very good, but then I could tell it wasn't that, it was snow blowing across the camera and the wind looked like it was very intense.  Laurel does NOT look like a destination for a weekend racing adventure today, but it's where I'll meet my good buddy Jim Anderson in about a month.  'Willy went right to the front but was being hounded by the 2/1 second choice all the way to the far turn.  I could tell, having watched a few races in my day :) that while the rival was being hard pressed to keep up Afleet Willy's jockey was sitting chilly.  As they entered the turn they'd had enough of that one and easily opened up on him.  Clear into the lane he looked long gone.  Inside the final sixteenth either the nine furlong distance or the early pace pressure appeared to being wearing on Willy as the field came closing in, but they were too late, and I'd won again - cashing for close to another forty dollars!

The Laurel race was no longer official than they were hitting the top of the stretch in Hot Springs, Arkansas where I liked Olivia's Uncle in their second race.  When I'd cashed my initial winning tickets I was $1 short of rounding it up to $50 so one of my favorite tellers, Karen - of the twins Kimberly and Karen - watched me take a dollar out of my wallet and said I'd have to pay myself back later.  So when I cashed this set of tickets I showed her that I was paying myself back, and we shared a chuckle....just another fun anecdote from a day at the races!

Next up was the Miracle Wood Stakes from Laurel and by now the snow was REALLY coming down, so much so you couldn't hardly see the runners on the far turn.  Still Having Fun and Wentz had nearly identical Beyers and the latter was coming off a maiden wire-to-wire win while 'Fun was exiting a stakes race.  The additional ground looked ideal as they were stretching to seven furlongs today.  As the field turned for home Still Having Fun was in fourth and the top three floated very wide into the lane.  The rider of 'Fun was smart and ducked inside while the others dueled down the middle of the track and got my top choice up in time.

Another triple investment that I would cash for an even thirty buckaroos!  After missing on the next two plays I went through a strong set of selections where I cashed on five of seven.  The first came in the first of the seven stakes on the Fair Grounds card, the Colonel Power Stakes going five and a half furlongs on the turf.  While I thought there was legitimate concern for the favorite Holding Gold being best, I also thought that if you were willing to be a little creative in your filtering of his past performances he was a standout.  If you filtered out everyone of the five furlong turf sprints - too short for him - you were left with one at six furlongs and four at 5 1/2 furlongs.   Those had earned him Beyer figures of 105, 107, 100, 89, and 96 which made him an obvious favorite.  Two of those had been wins and one was in a Grade 2 event AND he was exiting the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint where he'd been beaten only 1 3/4 length.  At the top of the stretch he looked to be out of it, but John Velazquez had him in high gear and inside the final sixteenth he came rolling by to run down the longshot leader and win going away.

Collected almost twenty dollars - I was watching on my phone from my seat in the grandstand at Gulfstream because they were loading into the gate for the Rough and Ready Stakes going a one-turn mile.  Aztec Sense had won three of his last four with the only loss coming in the $100K Claiming Crown Rapid Transit when bumped hard and immediately last of a bulky field of fourteen before rallying to be 4th, beaten only two lengths.  He looked to be the clear front runner and this just appeared so very similar to so many Monmouth races where Paco Lopez would be on the front coasting and give that "condescending look" under his shoulder to the other riders like, "Are you seriously thinking of trying to catch me" before he'd roll to victory.  I made him a prime time play.  JUST AS FORSEEN!  Right to the front, even gave "the look" and wired the field as much the best.  Everyone saw him as the likely winner, but still cashed for nearly $35 on my seventh winner of the day!

Risen Star Stakes Day Highlights
Part 1


I missed on two out of town races before I was back at Laurel where it was near-blizzard conditions....and I WANT to go here?  Of the multiple stakes here in Maryland, this three-year-old race at a one-turn mile, The Wide Country, looked the most wide open to me.  But I thought Enchanted Ghost looked best and good enough to play.  She'd won closing in a sprint, then won at a one-turn mile.  In her most recent she'd chased today's rival, Last True Love, in a six furlong sprint and had just missed catching her.  The added ground played to her favor today.  She stalked to the turn and blew by as easily best.  Only had the minimum but still cashed for nearly fifteen dollars.

Next on my sheet was the Grade 3 Mineshaft from the Fair Grounds for older horses.  When Jim and I had been in New Orleans I had picked Cedartown in the Louisiana Stakes as my upset special at 10/1 and that race served as the prep for this.  He won, but was bet down to 3/1 and I liked him even more today.  But when I got to Gulfstream he was scratched.  I had listed only one alternative but didn't like him to win so I thought I'd pass the race.  I decided to look on my Fair Grounds selection sheet to see who their handicapper liked and at first glance I dismissed his pick because I had seen The Player in the Louisiana Stakes and didn't think he could win that day or today.  But then I noted the comment, "....since adding blinkers been blazing in the mornings...."  Oh wait, really?  I looked it up and he had whistled through three morning work outs since the addition of the shades - a best of 75 bullet, a best of 103 work, and a blistering best of 33 in a wicked :59.3 for five furlongs.  Uh oh, he looks really dangerous, especially with Cedartown out.  I texted both Keith and Jeff that with the scratch I was going triple-times on The Player.  Right to the front and was never asked while drawing off by daylight!

Cashed for another $30 and change!  WHOOOO HOOOOO!  Right back in my next selection, an allowance at Aqueduct where I liked Preservationist.  He'd only been out three times and his last was a maiden win, but if he ran to this three similar Beyers - 92-92-94 - he was your winner.  He did win, but when they "ran" through the stretch, oh they were struggling home!  Still cashed for over $30 again on my tenth win of the day.  Next up was the BET of the DAY and it was from Tampa.  Originally I'd debated about playing Tampa at all because THEIR big day had been last weekend.  But the Fair Grounds, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita all had late post times and I knew I wouldn't have a lot of bets from Laurel or Aqueduct, so if there were to be any early afternoon plays, other than Gulfstream they'd have to come from Tampa.  As I started scanning through I found a couple horses I liked, but then in their co-feature, there he was.....multiple graded stakes winning sprinter XY Jet!  When I had him in the Sunshine Millions - after I'd had him in the Gr 3 Mr. Prospector - I had read that the Millions was to be his final prep before heading to Dubai to run in the Group 2, $2 Million Golden Shaheen.  So what was he doing in this listed $100K spot?  I looked it up online and his trainer Jorge Navarro explained that his options were a series of six works to lead up to the Dubai race or he could get a race in him here, and this looked like a good spot on the calendar.  My only questions were - (a) how hard would they push in a $100K race with $2 Million on the line down the road, and (b) how would he handle the very sandy Tampa main track?  Still he looked TONS the best, even if he ran a "B" race.  As they were warming up I was watching in the Gulfstream Breezeway and a fellow race fan came up and said, "One to Nine - who'd bet a horse like that!"  We had a conversation about betting for value vs. betting for winners and when the odds clicked up to 1-5 I told him on THIS horse in THIS field, that was stealing.  As they approached the gate the fellow said, his odds will drop once they leave the gate, don't you think?  Probably I said.  Right to the front went XY Jet and ran them off their feet in a dazzling near-track record time.  And the best part....not only did his odds NOT go down.....they went UP to 2/5.

That's right, cashed for $70 on my big bet - how do you let that happen!  Thank you "value bettors!"  One of the best stories came with my next selection, the Al Stall Memorial at the Fair Grounds going a mile and a sixteenth on the turf.  When Jim and I were there Mom's On Strike had rallied late to win the prep for this and though she was unbeaten over the New Orleans grass I thought just maybe she'd peaked in that race so I went against her - she was the #6 horse.  Instead I went with #11 Susie Bee who had Beyers that compared nicely and was a 6x turf winner.  She could spring the upset.  But she trailed throughout and was wide turning for home, a non-factor.  As I watched on my phone I put it down and went through my tickets before heading downstairs to bet the next sequence of races and I started tossing the losing tickets.  $10 to WIN on the FG Race 6, on #11, yep, the Susie Bee ticket - toss.  Next, $10 to WIn on the FG Race 6, on #6.....wait, what?  That's supposed to be on RACE 7 - oh wait a minute.....race 6, number 6.....hold on a tic, THAT'S Mom's On Strike's number.  I AM A WINNER!  So for my $20 bet I cashed for $29 :)  What a day I'm having!


After missing on the next four it was time for the next-to-last live race at Gulfstream.  This was a main track event going a mile-and-a-sixteenth, so that meant (a) they'd start right in front of me, but they would use the first-line finish line, with the short stretch run.  The field looked pretty evenly matched and then I saw him.....what is Page McKenney doing in here?  He's a Maryland-based runner who rarely leaves the Mid-Atlantic circuit except for an occasional trip to Philadelphia to run in a Parx race.  In fact, he'd run in the Pennsylvania Derby Championship on Pennsylvania Derby Day last fall at Parx and had won as my upset pick at a big 6/1.  In this field he was CLEARLY the class of the field as he made his eight-year-old debut.  He'd raced thirty-five times with TWENTY wins and fifteen second place finish good for earnings of close to $2 Million.  His trainer had been struggling here (23/1-7-1) but I thought this was more than off-set by the fact that Page McKenney was a remarkable 10-for-14 at this 8 1/2 furlong distance.  And in spite of all this, he was a huge 6/1 in the program.  I remarked in my analysis that even at half that he would be stealing.  He sat a perfect trip under top NYRA rider Irad Ortiz, tracking three speedsters into the far turn.  When given his cue he responded immediately and accelerated right by them all to take command mid-way on the turn.  He was daylight in front turning for home and I knew it was all over - I'd won my thirteenth race as he was easily best.

And the very best part, he'd been a big 4/1 on the board, paying $10 - so I was cashing for $50!  WHAT a day, indeed.  Disappointed when I ran 2nd in the Fair Grounds Handicap on the turf when Mr. Misunderstood took his first career loss on the grass, finishing second at 6/5.  I really thought that Instilled Regard - who'd been my choice in the Fair Grounds' Lecomte, the prep for the Risen Star today would repeat.  But he ran flatly at 7/5 to be fourth when the winner was 20/1 and the runner-up 40/1!  The finale at Gulfstream was the Little Magician Stakes going 8 furlongs on the turf.  It looked the prime example of the adage, "turf winners win turf races" with ten-time turf winner Sinatra having that big edge.  Looked to be a lot of speed for him to rally into.  He was sent off at a generous 5/2 price and he came with his run on the outside, but was followed by a longshot runner.  The two of them dueled through the stretch while another closer came up the rail.....PHOTO FINISH!  Second, but I had thought it curious that the track announcer said as they hit the line, "Photo finish, too close to call but it looked like Montclair was drifting in" - immediately the INQUIRY sign went up and then they announced that the third place finisher was claiming foul against both the winner AND ME!  As I watched the replay you could see the "winner" lugged in from about the eight-path to the two-patch forcing Sinatra into the path of the third place finisher, but CLEARLY the winner was coming down as he didn't just bump me, he drove me all the way to the rail.  Then the announcement, "Ladies and gentlemen, the stewards have made a disqualification...."  YES!  I've got my fourteenth and final winner on the day and it's worth almost forty dollars!  Thank you stewards!

For the day I finished with nearly 40% wins and a profit of over $25.  While you can say there were several things that DID break in my favor allowing me to have the winning day - the switch to The Player in the Mineshaft, the "surprise" winner on the double ticket in the Al Stall, and the DQ "win" from second place finish, but I did win those.  If I'd have NOT lost this photo on Surprise Jubilee in the Gulfstream's eighth race, I'd have cashed for another $75 or more and had a $100 day.....oh so close......

Risen Star Stakes Day
Highlights - Part 2





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