Wednesday Feb 14 - Monday Feb 19
Racing Highlights
It was an extended week of racing due to the holiday Monday and special racing cards at Gulfstream and several other tracks. Here's the story on what started out as a slow week, but finished with a rush to be another very successful week at the races!
Wednesday February 14 - Valentines Day
When I headed out for the day at Gulfstream I really thought I had a very, VERY solid play in the second race. But he finished second at odds-on....turned out he was the first of not two, not three, not four, but FIVE runner-up finishes from my six selections. I decided to up the bet on Mitchell Road in the 6th, the last race I watched live and he went wire to wire to give me the big win on the day. But as I walked out through the breeze-way and checked on the payouts I saw that there was both an objection and an INQUIRY. I truly didn't think my horse deserved to come down, but I've seen runners taken down for less and EVERYONE standing around me was convinced he was coming down. But in the end they let the winner stand. And I topped the day by purchasing a new polo shirt that was (a) on sale and (b) an different color. And then we ended the day by heading to Coldstone to share a Valentines' ice cream treat. Our celebration was dulled because today there was a mass shooting at Douglas High School just ten minutes up the Sawgrass Expressway from our home. Very sad.
Thursday February 15
Well, the good news is that I might, just MIGHT have found my Kentucky Derby horse and he won as my BET of the Day! The bad news is that he won at Tampa and I went 0-for-6 at Gulfstream for the day. Magnum Moon had debuted in a sprint at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher on Saturday January 13th and you may remember him from my journal that day when we were in New Orleans. He was my BET of the Day, and despite being a Pletcher first time starting 3yo at Gulfstream he paid a whopping $9.20 and I cashed for over $135. Today he was running in a Tampa two-turn allowance and with last Saturday being the Grade 3 Sam Davis, a Derby prep, I just had the feeling that this was Magnum Moon's test. His 95 Beyer in that first start was light years better than any number the rest of the field had earned and he had all the right numbers to stretch out in distance. I thought it was very significant that the leading rider at Gulfstream, Luis Saez gave up all his mounts for the day to ride in this single race. He waited patiently in fourth to the far turn and then glided the odds-on favorite into the clear and he floated by four wide without taking a deep breath. He scored in near track-record time and now it's on to the Derby trail for him!
Friday February 16
A much, MUCH improved day of handicapping today! The first selection came in the second, a maiden special for three-year-olds. And as I wrote in my analysis, it's important when handicapping to use ALL the resources you can to find the winning angle. Mike Welsch is the DRF analyst for South Florida and "his thing" is morning workouts. So much so that he is THE DRF guy that posts videos for the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby, all Triple Crown events and the Breeders' Cup. So when he mentions a work in his daily analysis it's worth paying attention. Secondly, he is not one to pick chalk, much less as his best bet. So when he made Noble Commander, a first time starter from Mark Casse's barn as his BEST BET based on his works, that made me pay very close attention. Pressed and dueled through the turn and the stretch, and while it wasn't an easy win, it was a win and I did cash on a triple investment to kick off the day!
In the seventh I liked Sumner. It was a $30K two-lifetime claiming event and I was hopeful to get a fair price on Todd Pletcher's runner. He'd been a "Pletcher Plunger" when going to the $12.5K level to get his win, but he did it with authority with top rider Luis Saez on board. He stuck with the colt today and I thought the turn back from a one-turn mile to the seven panels was a perfect fit. It was also a plus that the favorite looked very beatable. His speed figures said he should be the winner, but he was first off the claim for Jane Cibelli and she was just 1-for-21 with those over the last two years. I mentioned that Race 4 might provide a clue to this one as another Cibelli "first-off-the-claim" was running. In that race the Cibelli runner was the 4/5 favorite and was second! Sumner tracked the Cibelli runner, who was indeed the even-money favorite, overtook him in he lane and drew off as much the best!
But best of all, he was a big 3/1 leading to a payoff of nearly $45! In the finale I was hoping trainer Mark Casse would provide me with my second winner from his barn with March to the Arch. He'd closed some ground in his debut on Holy Bull Saturday going two turns on the turf despite slow fractions. With any help up front he should win, I thought. His main rival did have Saez in the irons and was exiting a second place finish. But that was at Tampa and the initial speed figure of March to the Arch was a pole better. Went off at a more than fair 5/2 and blew by the field, going last to first and looked LONG GONE for the win in mid-stretch, but then Saez got busy on his colt and the final margin was narrow, but a winning one. Cashed out for nearly $40 as I closed the day a much, much improved 3-for-6!
Saturday February 17: Risen Star Stakes Day at the Fair Grounds
I had begun handicapping on Wednesday for today and by the time I arrived at the track I had nearly forty selections from seven different tracks including multiple graded stakes at both the Fair Grounds where it was their final step to the Louisiana Derby and at Laurel where it was "Winter Carnival Day." Also at Gulfstream there were ELEVEN starter stakes from the twelve race program.
It was an excellent day at the races as I cashed on 14 tickets (37%) and had a clear profit. Click HERE to read the specific stories from this big day at Gulfstream!
Sunday February 18
After starting the day by losing the first three races I was not anticipating a good day, but that quickly turned around! The sixth race was a starter optional claiming event sprinting five furlongs on the turf. As I wrote, I wouldn't argue with anyone who wasn't willing to trust the favorite, Oak Bluffs who had run second in back-to-back-to-back races AND the barn was a struggling 23/1-7-4 for the meet. However, those second place efforts had come in the $100K Claiming Crown Canterbury behind the course record holder (and my BET of the Day) Pay Any Price and the Gulfstream Park Turf Championship behind multiple stakes winning Rainbow Heir, sandwiched around a six wide trip. The drop into claiming company had to help. Secondly, the barn.....yesterday one of my big wins was with Page McKenney and HE went for this barn - maybe they're heating up? Paco Lopez had the mount and he pressed the front runner into the lane, took the lead willingly turning for home and then looked long gone. But a closer was gobbling up ground and it looked like Oak Bluffs was going to settle for second again, but Paco had just enough left to get him home for my first winner on the day!
The ninth was my BEST of the afternoon. It was a maiden event going nine furlongs on the turf and I really, REALLY liked Blockade. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is known for NOT having his runners at 100% for their debut so when one runs well early, you need to pay attention. He had run third in his initial try and then was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths second time out BUT had been blocked through the lane. He paired that figure with a second here in his most recent, but it was significant that the winner came RIGHT BACK TO WIN and the show colt was a highly regarded maiden winner in his next start. The only threat in the field looked to be Unleveraged who was in post ten. But his figure last time out of 63 paled in comparison to the 77 earned by Blockade. My plan was to be $30 to WIN! But when I checked the scratches, Unleveraged had been withdrawn! Upped the bet to $50 to WIN! Blockade tracked leaders into the turn, seemed to glide up effortlessly to challenge, but as they turned for home he seemed to stall. But at the furlong pole he shifted into a new gear and blew by as MUCH the best! HORRAY! But wait.....INQUIRY! As I watched the head-on replay it looked to me like the front runner had come out into Blockade and cut off the runner who was objecting. After several views the stewards ruled in my favor and I did indeed have my second winner on the day, sealing a winning day!
Monday February 19: Presidents' Day
I handicapped both the Gulfstream card and the Oaklawn card as it was Southwest Stakes Day at Oaklawn Park today - the first step towards the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby, and it had supporting stakes on the undercard. My first pick on the holiday card scratched so I made my first bet in Race 3, an entry level allowance sprint. One thing I have noted over the several years I've followed racing, especially here at Gulfstream is that Todd Pletcher does exceptionally well with experienced runners in their first start after moving into his barn. Ascertain was a filly who'd run well here last year and was exiting a stakes try last summer. Another strong Pletcher win angle is the long layoff. She was working bullets and wow did she run to her odds and works - blew by on the turn and romped by a pole as the popular favorite.
Carried my triple investment to the wire for my first score of the day! Missed on Chad Brown's debuting turf filly Touch of Gold who was fifth at even money. And then came one of the two very interesting races of the day....it was the seventh, a maiden special for sophomore fillies going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Todd Pletcher had entered Miss Sophia's Star here. She'd lost her debut, as the favorite, at GPW; came back and lost as the odds-on choice here in December - as my top pick; came back and dropped into a $50K spot, lost as the favorite, as my top pick; and then lost again for $50K on the dirt, again as my pick. NEVER let a Pletcher 3yo get away, but she'd burned so much money and was not bred for grass. So I compromised on the program favorite with just a minimum bet. New jockey Tyler Gafflione put her on the lead and she relished the grass surface. Wire to wire in ultra-impressive fashion! And best of all, she was allowed to go off at a big 4/1 price allowing me to cash for $25 even though I only had the minimum on her!
The ninth was a MSW for 3yo fillies and I liked Pletcher's Shanghai Shuffle. She was hammered down to 3/2 favoritism but freaked in the gate and scratched. Next up was the fifth from Oaklawn, a money-added allowance going a two-turn mile. There were multiple angles pointing out Dazzling Gem from the strong Brad Cox barn. First, the inside post is a huge advantage in a two-turn mile race where it's a short run to the first turn; secondly, Dazzling Gem had seen nothing but stakes action since winning a November 2016 allowance race; had the fastest speed figure in the field AND was third off the shelf with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens up. Staked in third to the turn, angled off the rail and was L-O-N-G gone!
Cashed for $15 on the double-down investment - which in hind sight I should have had more on this one. The eighth at Oaklawn was the Grade 3 $500K Razorback Handicap and it was one of the BEST handicapping lessons of the winter! There are so, so many angles that can point out winners, but one of the best at finding big price plays is what's called a "Trainer Pattern." Here you look for a runner who had success previously when following the same pattern he's following today. Check out the past performances for #3 Hawaakom who was 10/1 in the program:
Last year, coming off the layoff he'd run in the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and earned a strong 98 Beyer figure. He then shipped to Oaklawn and ran in the Grade 3 Razorback with an improved and career-best Beyer of 101. Note he was second best behind Horse of the Year Gun Runner who rattled off six straight Grade 1 wins including the Breeders' Cup Classic and $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Fast forward to 2017-18.....came off a layoff last time out to run where.....IN THE LOUISIANA Stakes and earned a near identical 96; now ships to Oaklawn for the Grade 3 Razorback! UH OH! And he's 10/1? He was 8/1 as they loaded into the gate and I was watching live online while we were entertaining four friends. As they entered the gate I re-checked the pp's to see his running style, off the pace so don't be worried when he's not near the front I told myself. He was mid-pack in an ideal spot I thought down the backstretch. Approaching the far turn he began to move up and when he hit the turn I could see he was accelerating and beginning to pass horses. But now jockey Corey Lanerie had to make a choice. To get clear run he'd have to float nearly eight or nine wide and that would almost certainly lose so much ground he would never get there in time. He elected to stay on the rail and as heads turned for home the narrowest of openings cracked on the rail.....Lanerie accelerated into it. As track announcer Vic Stauffer called, "...you'd better watch out for Hawaakom if he can get through...." I jumped out of my stool at our new island and began jumping up and down. Our friends looked at me with wide eyes and I shouted, I am about to win $90! Hawaakom drew off to win convincingly! The Upset Of The Day had come through thanks to excellent interpretation of the past performances. Better yet, the final odds were better than 9/1 so he paid $20.80 and I was cashing out for over $100! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Missed in the Grade 3 Royal Delta at Gulfstream when my pick, favorite Lewis Bay was handled too confidently I thought and run down by Martini Glass at $18.40 and I'd written she intrigued me as an upset choice....sigh.....then finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes, a neck away from third where I would have got my money back, oh well. Who can complain about a four-for-seven day where I made so much money!
For the extended week I had excellent numbers......
Wednesday February 14 - Valentines Day
When I headed out for the day at Gulfstream I really thought I had a very, VERY solid play in the second race. But he finished second at odds-on....turned out he was the first of not two, not three, not four, but FIVE runner-up finishes from my six selections. I decided to up the bet on Mitchell Road in the 6th, the last race I watched live and he went wire to wire to give me the big win on the day. But as I walked out through the breeze-way and checked on the payouts I saw that there was both an objection and an INQUIRY. I truly didn't think my horse deserved to come down, but I've seen runners taken down for less and EVERYONE standing around me was convinced he was coming down. But in the end they let the winner stand. And I topped the day by purchasing a new polo shirt that was (a) on sale and (b) an different color. And then we ended the day by heading to Coldstone to share a Valentines' ice cream treat. Our celebration was dulled because today there was a mass shooting at Douglas High School just ten minutes up the Sawgrass Expressway from our home. Very sad.
Well, the good news is that I might, just MIGHT have found my Kentucky Derby horse and he won as my BET of the Day! The bad news is that he won at Tampa and I went 0-for-6 at Gulfstream for the day. Magnum Moon had debuted in a sprint at Gulfstream for Todd Pletcher on Saturday January 13th and you may remember him from my journal that day when we were in New Orleans. He was my BET of the Day, and despite being a Pletcher first time starting 3yo at Gulfstream he paid a whopping $9.20 and I cashed for over $135. Today he was running in a Tampa two-turn allowance and with last Saturday being the Grade 3 Sam Davis, a Derby prep, I just had the feeling that this was Magnum Moon's test. His 95 Beyer in that first start was light years better than any number the rest of the field had earned and he had all the right numbers to stretch out in distance. I thought it was very significant that the leading rider at Gulfstream, Luis Saez gave up all his mounts for the day to ride in this single race. He waited patiently in fourth to the far turn and then glided the odds-on favorite into the clear and he floated by four wide without taking a deep breath. He scored in near track-record time and now it's on to the Derby trail for him!
Friday February 16
A much, MUCH improved day of handicapping today! The first selection came in the second, a maiden special for three-year-olds. And as I wrote in my analysis, it's important when handicapping to use ALL the resources you can to find the winning angle. Mike Welsch is the DRF analyst for South Florida and "his thing" is morning workouts. So much so that he is THE DRF guy that posts videos for the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby, all Triple Crown events and the Breeders' Cup. So when he mentions a work in his daily analysis it's worth paying attention. Secondly, he is not one to pick chalk, much less as his best bet. So when he made Noble Commander, a first time starter from Mark Casse's barn as his BEST BET based on his works, that made me pay very close attention. Pressed and dueled through the turn and the stretch, and while it wasn't an easy win, it was a win and I did cash on a triple investment to kick off the day!
In the seventh I liked Sumner. It was a $30K two-lifetime claiming event and I was hopeful to get a fair price on Todd Pletcher's runner. He'd been a "Pletcher Plunger" when going to the $12.5K level to get his win, but he did it with authority with top rider Luis Saez on board. He stuck with the colt today and I thought the turn back from a one-turn mile to the seven panels was a perfect fit. It was also a plus that the favorite looked very beatable. His speed figures said he should be the winner, but he was first off the claim for Jane Cibelli and she was just 1-for-21 with those over the last two years. I mentioned that Race 4 might provide a clue to this one as another Cibelli "first-off-the-claim" was running. In that race the Cibelli runner was the 4/5 favorite and was second! Sumner tracked the Cibelli runner, who was indeed the even-money favorite, overtook him in he lane and drew off as much the best!
But best of all, he was a big 3/1 leading to a payoff of nearly $45! In the finale I was hoping trainer Mark Casse would provide me with my second winner from his barn with March to the Arch. He'd closed some ground in his debut on Holy Bull Saturday going two turns on the turf despite slow fractions. With any help up front he should win, I thought. His main rival did have Saez in the irons and was exiting a second place finish. But that was at Tampa and the initial speed figure of March to the Arch was a pole better. Went off at a more than fair 5/2 and blew by the field, going last to first and looked LONG GONE for the win in mid-stretch, but then Saez got busy on his colt and the final margin was narrow, but a winning one. Cashed out for nearly $40 as I closed the day a much, much improved 3-for-6!
Saturday February 17: Risen Star Stakes Day at the Fair Grounds
Risen Star Day Highlights - Part 1
Risen Star Day Highlights - Part 2
Sunday February 18
After starting the day by losing the first three races I was not anticipating a good day, but that quickly turned around! The sixth race was a starter optional claiming event sprinting five furlongs on the turf. As I wrote, I wouldn't argue with anyone who wasn't willing to trust the favorite, Oak Bluffs who had run second in back-to-back-to-back races AND the barn was a struggling 23/1-7-4 for the meet. However, those second place efforts had come in the $100K Claiming Crown Canterbury behind the course record holder (and my BET of the Day) Pay Any Price and the Gulfstream Park Turf Championship behind multiple stakes winning Rainbow Heir, sandwiched around a six wide trip. The drop into claiming company had to help. Secondly, the barn.....yesterday one of my big wins was with Page McKenney and HE went for this barn - maybe they're heating up? Paco Lopez had the mount and he pressed the front runner into the lane, took the lead willingly turning for home and then looked long gone. But a closer was gobbling up ground and it looked like Oak Bluffs was going to settle for second again, but Paco had just enough left to get him home for my first winner on the day!
The ninth was my BEST of the afternoon. It was a maiden event going nine furlongs on the turf and I really, REALLY liked Blockade. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey is known for NOT having his runners at 100% for their debut so when one runs well early, you need to pay attention. He had run third in his initial try and then was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths second time out BUT had been blocked through the lane. He paired that figure with a second here in his most recent, but it was significant that the winner came RIGHT BACK TO WIN and the show colt was a highly regarded maiden winner in his next start. The only threat in the field looked to be Unleveraged who was in post ten. But his figure last time out of 63 paled in comparison to the 77 earned by Blockade. My plan was to be $30 to WIN! But when I checked the scratches, Unleveraged had been withdrawn! Upped the bet to $50 to WIN! Blockade tracked leaders into the turn, seemed to glide up effortlessly to challenge, but as they turned for home he seemed to stall. But at the furlong pole he shifted into a new gear and blew by as MUCH the best! HORRAY! But wait.....INQUIRY! As I watched the head-on replay it looked to me like the front runner had come out into Blockade and cut off the runner who was objecting. After several views the stewards ruled in my favor and I did indeed have my second winner on the day, sealing a winning day!
Monday February 19: Presidents' Day
I handicapped both the Gulfstream card and the Oaklawn card as it was Southwest Stakes Day at Oaklawn Park today - the first step towards the Grade 1 $1 Million Arkansas Derby, and it had supporting stakes on the undercard. My first pick on the holiday card scratched so I made my first bet in Race 3, an entry level allowance sprint. One thing I have noted over the several years I've followed racing, especially here at Gulfstream is that Todd Pletcher does exceptionally well with experienced runners in their first start after moving into his barn. Ascertain was a filly who'd run well here last year and was exiting a stakes try last summer. Another strong Pletcher win angle is the long layoff. She was working bullets and wow did she run to her odds and works - blew by on the turn and romped by a pole as the popular favorite.
Carried my triple investment to the wire for my first score of the day! Missed on Chad Brown's debuting turf filly Touch of Gold who was fifth at even money. And then came one of the two very interesting races of the day....it was the seventh, a maiden special for sophomore fillies going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Todd Pletcher had entered Miss Sophia's Star here. She'd lost her debut, as the favorite, at GPW; came back and lost as the odds-on choice here in December - as my top pick; came back and dropped into a $50K spot, lost as the favorite, as my top pick; and then lost again for $50K on the dirt, again as my pick. NEVER let a Pletcher 3yo get away, but she'd burned so much money and was not bred for grass. So I compromised on the program favorite with just a minimum bet. New jockey Tyler Gafflione put her on the lead and she relished the grass surface. Wire to wire in ultra-impressive fashion! And best of all, she was allowed to go off at a big 4/1 price allowing me to cash for $25 even though I only had the minimum on her!
The ninth was a MSW for 3yo fillies and I liked Pletcher's Shanghai Shuffle. She was hammered down to 3/2 favoritism but freaked in the gate and scratched. Next up was the fifth from Oaklawn, a money-added allowance going a two-turn mile. There were multiple angles pointing out Dazzling Gem from the strong Brad Cox barn. First, the inside post is a huge advantage in a two-turn mile race where it's a short run to the first turn; secondly, Dazzling Gem had seen nothing but stakes action since winning a November 2016 allowance race; had the fastest speed figure in the field AND was third off the shelf with Hall of Fame rider Gary Stevens up. Staked in third to the turn, angled off the rail and was L-O-N-G gone!
Cashed for $15 on the double-down investment - which in hind sight I should have had more on this one. The eighth at Oaklawn was the Grade 3 $500K Razorback Handicap and it was one of the BEST handicapping lessons of the winter! There are so, so many angles that can point out winners, but one of the best at finding big price plays is what's called a "Trainer Pattern." Here you look for a runner who had success previously when following the same pattern he's following today. Check out the past performances for #3 Hawaakom who was 10/1 in the program:
Last year, coming off the layoff he'd run in the Louisiana Stakes at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and earned a strong 98 Beyer figure. He then shipped to Oaklawn and ran in the Grade 3 Razorback with an improved and career-best Beyer of 101. Note he was second best behind Horse of the Year Gun Runner who rattled off six straight Grade 1 wins including the Breeders' Cup Classic and $16 Million Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Fast forward to 2017-18.....came off a layoff last time out to run where.....IN THE LOUISIANA Stakes and earned a near identical 96; now ships to Oaklawn for the Grade 3 Razorback! UH OH! And he's 10/1? He was 8/1 as they loaded into the gate and I was watching live online while we were entertaining four friends. As they entered the gate I re-checked the pp's to see his running style, off the pace so don't be worried when he's not near the front I told myself. He was mid-pack in an ideal spot I thought down the backstretch. Approaching the far turn he began to move up and when he hit the turn I could see he was accelerating and beginning to pass horses. But now jockey Corey Lanerie had to make a choice. To get clear run he'd have to float nearly eight or nine wide and that would almost certainly lose so much ground he would never get there in time. He elected to stay on the rail and as heads turned for home the narrowest of openings cracked on the rail.....Lanerie accelerated into it. As track announcer Vic Stauffer called, "...you'd better watch out for Hawaakom if he can get through...." I jumped out of my stool at our new island and began jumping up and down. Our friends looked at me with wide eyes and I shouted, I am about to win $90! Hawaakom drew off to win convincingly! The Upset Of The Day had come through thanks to excellent interpretation of the past performances. Better yet, the final odds were better than 9/1 so he paid $20.80 and I was cashing out for over $100! WHOOOO HOOOO!
Missed in the Grade 3 Royal Delta at Gulfstream when my pick, favorite Lewis Bay was handled too confidently I thought and run down by Martini Glass at $18.40 and I'd written she intrigued me as an upset choice....sigh.....then finished fourth in the Southwest Stakes, a neck away from third where I would have got my money back, oh well. Who can complain about a four-for-seven day where I made so much money!
Presidents' Week Racing Highlights
Wednesday Feb 14 - Monday Feb 19
For the extended week I had excellent numbers......
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