March 16 - 18
Friday March 16
While my buddy Jim Anderson and I were enjoying great time in New Orleans we'd begun tossing around ideas on where we could make our next racing adventure. I mentioned Laurel Park in Maryland because I'd read a lot about how the Stronach Group - which owns Gulfstream - had been spending a lot of money on the facility, and I'd read reports that they were bidding to try to get the Breeders' Cup and/or the Preakness here in the near future. Jim and I discussed a possible fall date. But in early February Kim was telling me about her "Girls' Weekend Getaway" (which I'd known about) and the thought occured to me, "Why am I staying home when she's gone?" I looked at the racing calendar and Laurel was hosting FIVE stakes on Saturday March 17th. I looked into airfare and hotels and emailed Jim and asked if he had any interest. Within 24 hours we were booked! And so began our "Laurel Racing Weekend Adventure!" Click HERE to visit the "Travel Journal" which is a pictorial view of our weekend.
Beginning on Wednesday I had handicapped for Laurel and Gulfstream on Friday & Saturday; then I added Oaklawn to the Saturday selections because it was their "Rebel Stakes Day," the final big day on their racing calendar before their signature Arkansas Derby Day which comes two weeks after the Florida Derby. Friday I left Fort Lauderdale about 9 a.m. and arrived a little before 11:30 a.m. to find Jim waiting for me at my gate. We quickly picked up an Uber and headed to the Marriott Residence Inn at Arundel Mills, just minutes from the airport and were able to check into our room, #218. We dropped our things off and quickly got a Lyft ride to Laurel. We arrived just after the opener at Laurel where I had not had a selection. But because I was not sure when we'd arrive I'd made early bets on both the opener at Gulfstream and the second at Laurel. We took a few minutes and explored the facility and I'm glad that our "first impression" was NOT the "lasting impression!" We walked up the stairs to the grandstand and saw nothing but cement slabs and construction. This HARDLY looks like a facility preparing for a Breeders' Cup bid! But when we crossed over into the Clubhouse area and simulcast area it was vastly different. VERY obvious that a lot of money had been spent to make this a comfortable facility for horse players!
My first bet of the day at Gulfstream had been a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds on the turf going five furlongs. The top three program choices had way too many losses already for my taste, so I landed on an 8/1 first time turf runner from the Gilberto Zerpa barn. Dropping out of a troubled MSW dirt try I liked the price. I pulled up the replay from Xpressbet at Gulfstream and was rewarded when I saw my top choice, Bird of Peace track the leader to the top of the lane and then edge clear to score at better than $6!
We found seats in a simulcast area and were delighted when no one, ever, came around to tell us they were "for purchase" seats (and we found out throughout the weekend that NONE of the seats in the simulcast area required purchase!). As we got settled I pointed to the screen and said to Jim, "Check it out, my top choice here at Laurel in the second is 12/1!" As I wrote in my analysis, I would have loved to have had a conversation with the connections of my pick, Squashville Road...check out his past performances here:
What was the story with his races from the first of November to the middle of January? Note how all of them were going a distance of ground, at this same $5K level, and with the same rider. Yet suddenly off a 4th place finish he's "abandoned" at the windows in December and is nearly 12/1 and runs to his odds. Then off that awful effort he's 40/1 and runs to it. But then just as unexpectedly in his next start, despite the abysmal effort he was bet down to 9/2 and WINS! Then is bet down again to 5/2 and WINS again!. He seems on a roll. I was thinking I'd need low odds for him to win, but there he was sitting at double digits. I can't say for sure, but I may have been tempted NOT to bet if I had been making the bet live, but I'd already made the play online prior to take-off in Florida. We went to the rail and watched. Right to the front, and set a very slow pace. As they approached the far turn I realized that NO ONE was making up any ground and that I had a very real chance to win with my first live race selection at Laurel. The field closed ground late, and one in particular got close, but it was too little too late! A HUGE $24.80 payoff and I was cashing for more than $60!
WHOOO HOOOO! I was just sorry that Jim had elected to pass the race! Jim's been "taking classes" at his home track, Canterbury every other week and is becoming a past performance-reading handicapper so we had a lot of great conversation about the selection process and reading the Form all weekend. As we looked at the upcoming third at Laurel I pointed out to him that IF the race was run to the way it appeared on paper no one, and I mean NO ONE would go with Showmeister to the front, and he'd be LONG gone. I probably would have been easily tempted to bet more than the minimum but I was reluctant because (a) this was a cheap $5K claiming race and (b) 'Show was coming off of a win. Claimers, especially cheap ones are notoriously inconsistent. But my pace analysis was spot on. Right to the front and was never threatened! My second live action win!
The fourth at Gulfstream was a starter optional claimer and again, I probably would have invested more on Shaft of Light, except for the circumstances. Shaft of Light is a VERY quick horse and is a restricted stakes winner. BUT he's faltered on at least one occasion with my money at a short price and that fact that such a quality runner was in a Starter Optional Claiming event - AND going seven furlongs rather than six - had me a bit concerned. If he ran his race AND he ran to his previous efforts at the distance (8/4-0-2) he'd be the easiest of winners. But I also was well aware he'd be no price at all, so I only doubled the bet. Right to the front and was LONG GONE, and I've won four of five to kick off the weekend. WOW!
Back to reality as I had two misses at Laurel and another at Gulfstream as we headed into the seventh at Laurel. In spite the fact that Saturday nearly always has higher quality runners, AND that there were multiple stakes races on my selection sheet from all three tracks, the BET of the WEEKEND came in this entry level allowance. This six furlong test would NEVER make me rich, but it was about as close to the proverbial "mortal lock" as you could get. The facts were these.....of the one-hundred and seventeen combined races run by those lining up to face Wonderful Light none, zero of those Beyer speed figures would beat HIS LAST THREE figures. That, in and of itself would make him a prime-time play. But there was more....he had a decent enough third in his debut at Aqueduct, and it was over the slop by the way, and then he came right back and was third to a colt named Mr. Crow. Wouldn't have meant much to the average player, but for me - who handicaps all the time - I immediately recognized the name. Mr. Crow had earned a huge 99 in that runner-up effort and came back to win at odds-on at Saratoga where he earned a gigantic 109 speed figure. I know this because I had him in his next start. I remember it vividly because the grumpy Andy Serline went on and on about how "no one should play" a short priced favorite like Mr. Crow in his first try against winners and stretching out in distance. I wanted to tell him that if Todd Pletcher thought he fit, then he fit! He walked with that Saratoga race and earned a 104 Beyer then went into graded stakes. The point being that when Wonderful Light earned a 94 for that third place effort then earned an even bigger 102 in his maiden win. Both the runner-up and show colts exited that race to win. In his first try vs. winners Wonderful Light was a sharp second, nearly three clear of the show, to a Godolphin runner named Westwood who came right back to win again AND Wonderful Light got another big figure, 99. Jim kept asking if I was going to up the bet, but I was just a little reluctant because it WAS on a Friday, at Laurel, in an entry level allowance. AND I knew I wouldn't be making any money by upping the wager, so I stuck with my original play which was still good enough, as I said to be the BET of the Weekend.
WINNER - WINNER - Chicken Dinner! Next on the sheet was the seventh from Gulfstream, another turf sprint. I thought that the only "question" regarding the chances of Nonsuch was that he was moving out of a successful barn into that of local conditioner Ron Spatz. Nothing wrong with a Spatz horse - but I'd be a lot more inclined to bet one of his charges in the spring/summer meeting than during the Championship Meet. But what swayed my opinion was that hot-riding Irad Ortiz had stuck with the horse despite the barn change. My original plan was to bet the minimum. But as I watched the betting unfold and checked the multi-wager payouts I could tell he was a SOLID favorite. So I doubled the bet and was rewarded with my third winner at Gulfstream and SIXTH of the day. You gotta love Maryland, right?
With my last selection at Laurel scratching Jim and I headed back to the hotel and asked about a local place that would serve us up some crab! But before we left I did a quick bit of math and shot a short video to celebrate my 3-for-5 day at Laurel where locally I'd profited over $50! Off to a great start!
Saturday - Rebel Stakes Day
I can't describe how friendly and helpful the staff was at the Marriott Residence Inn. We enjoyed every moment there, and one of the bonus points was the complimentary full breakfast that was provided! We got off to a great start and headed out to the track a little after eleven fifteen so we'd have plenty of time to get settled in with good seats for a full day of action!
The weather yesterday had been brisk - especially when the breeze/wind picked up and today it was very similar...and it was overcast with what the weather people said was a good chance for some form of precipitation in the late afternoon. So let's just get this part of the Saturday afternoon story out of the way right off the bat......it was the tenth at Gulfstream and jockey Javier Castellano - sketchy at best for the last couple years after being far and away THE dominant jockey in North America - was working on what would turn out to be a five-win afternoon. He was on Todd Pletcher's Divide, who was a 3yo in a Maiden Special on the turf. He came flying on the outside at a huge 8/1 price.....three-way photo finish!
The reason I start with this story of all the good vibe stories is because in a nutshell it was the theme to the afternoon. After a strong showing yesterday, especially locally, Laurel was NOT kind to me today. Although to be fair, I was all around it.....
That's right, F-I-V-E second place finishes, and add to that two thirds and a fourth. I did take some consolation that the two pros being PAID to pick, AND having their selections published in the program were a combined 2-for-22 with BOTH wins coming from one guy. As I said to Jim, I could easily pick 0-for-11 (or even 2-for-11) and I'd do it for half their pay, what ever they are making! So considering this background, I'm very satisfied to say I was well over 30% for the day and did very well at Oaklawn where the featured national events were going on. Here's how the upside of the day played out......After three misses at Gulfstream and two at Laurel it was time for the opener at Oaklawn. And in the opener, a non-winners of added money allowance it was my BEST of the Day in Hot Springs. Trainer Larry Jones had a very talented 3yo filly last year in Jenda's Agenda. She won her first three starts as a sophomore, the last two at odds-on and was my pick of the day when slated to run here at Laurel in the Ceasar's Washington. But she scratched on race day and wasn't seen until this winter when she was second in a Fair Grounds sprint. Considering she was off an eleven month layoff AND making her first start against older I thought it was a sharp comeback. Today she stretched out farther than she'd ever been. But it was also true that the filly that beat her in New Orleans had already come back to win and Jenda's Agenda had fired a sensational bullet work - best of 45 in a sizzling :59 flat for five furlongs. Right to the front and was never threatened. The only "issue" came as I waited for the prices to come up, the rider of the second place runner lodged an objection. If you watch my highlight video you can see the slo-mo replay. As I said to Jim, "I've seen much worse NOT get taken down and others taken down for MUCH LESS." But the stewards did the right thing and she got the money. That she was even money was a generous price I thought, and I gladly collected over $40!
Minutes later they were in the gate for a maiden claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs at Gulfstream. I liked MIss Jak who was a first time starter for trainer Gilberto Zerpa. While I was pretty confident she'd never been the post-time favorite, I also knew that this was yet ANOTHER example of "who makes the early odds for the DRF?" as she was listed at an absurd 50/1 by the linesmaker at the Daily Racing Form, but 9/2 in the Gulfstream official program. She came rallying wide and edged clear late to WIN.....two in a row!
The nice $7 payoff meant I'd collect another $35 at the Laurel windows :) Second at even money at Laurel before I scored again at Oaklawn. This time in a claiming event with Abba who was 2/1. Wishing I'd bet more on her because as I wrote in my analysis I KNEW the crowd would put a lot of money on the "name riders," but Abba loves this strip with a 9/5-1-1 local record. She'd been lost via a claim but was re-claimed by trainer John Ortiz. I didn't know at the time - because most of the race calls from out of town are not broadcast in the simulcast center - but it's well worth listening to Vic Stauffer's call in the highlight video. To appreciate it you would have to know that the Swedish band, Abba, provided all the songs on the soundtrack to the musical film "Mama Mia!"
The $6 payout earned me another $15 to my bankroll. I was a huge 8/1 when second in Oaklawn's fifth behind my second choice and the post-time favorite, before scoring in their sixth - another added money allowance with South Beach who was 8/5 and earned me another near $30.
I was so irritated at myself for Gulfstream's featured Grade 2 Inside Information. First I was irritated that somehow I'd completely missed the fact that the odds-on favorite, Ivy Bell, was a Todd Pletcher filly. I also missed that she was making her first start for him off a trainer change, one of my most favorite angles, ESPECIALLY when he brings them first time out in a stakes. And I'm even more angry that I DID REALIZE this well before the race went off and STILL did not change my selection. Had all kind of racing trouble - another questionable ride by Castellano COULD be blamed - but she was more than good enough to run by the entire field through the final furlong. Sigh......In retrospect - and I also DID consider this - I should have bet more in Oaklawn's seventh. When Jim and I were in New Orleans we'd played Oaklawn and in a maiden race I pointed out a colt by the name of Mitole who I'd bet in his debut at the Fair Grounds. He was away a bit slowly that day and wide through into the stretch, second. When she came back I supported him again and he drew off by more than a dozen lengths. And on THAT afternoon his final time was two ticks faster than the time run by older sprinters at the same distance! And a month later there was a national article about his first start against winners, in the six furlong listed Gazebo Stakes where the writer said that this COULD be a Kentucky Derby prep! But he bobbled at the start, then rushed up, dueled and lost a photo, second. So TODAY he was back in allowance company and looked tons the best on paper. And he was. Again, while only 4/5, considering how talented I think he is it was a very generous price and I wish I'd bet more.
While it certainly wasn't the 8/1 that I WOULD have liked to have got on Divide, Javier Castellano produced on Todd Pletcher's Your Only Man in Gulfstream's 12th, a starter allowance on the turf. Tracked the leaders to the turn, swung wide for clear run and won driving to the wire at a very nice $8.80 allowing me to cash for nearly $50!
The finale at Laurel was a maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile. And sometimes you just have to know "race track logic." As I pointed out, I'd already had FIVE seconds, two thirds, and a fourth from the eight bets I'd made at Laurel. While none were more than a double investment, most were that. So we come into this event and my plan was to bet the minimum on Xtracurricular. The race looked wide open and I'd remarked in my analysis that "...any result would not surprise...." but I liked this guy because in his debut he was in post fourteen of fourteen, then missed the break to be behind twelve of them early on AND over a sloppy surface. He "improved" to be ninth while passing at least some horses. That was for a $40K tag and today he dropped in for $20K and the barn was nearly 30% with second time maiden starters at a big $6.86 ROI. So that's why I DID pick him. But as I was about to go to the betting window it occurred to me, "....how ironic if the ONLY win I have of the day is IN THE FINALE and I've only got the minimum...." I am smarter than the race track logic, so I doubled the bet. Xtracurricular shot through on the rail in mid-stretch and drew off. He was 5/1 in the program and 3/1 when they went in the gate, but only 7/5 at post time. Still, I was happy to F-I-N-A-L-L-Y have a local winning pick!
The last big story came in THE race of the day. When more than one horse exits a race to win next time out it's called a "KEY race." Along those same lines, when Jim and I were in New Orleans on January 13th is quickly becoming a KEY "race day!" I've already mentioned Mitole. And here's another story tracing back to that day. The BET of the Day that afternoon was from Gulfstream and it was on a Todd Pletcher first time starting three-year-old, Magnum Moon. The crowd completely missed it and allowed him to pay $9.80 as an authoritative winner, and the race produced next out winners as well. I cashed for nearly $150. About a month later I was handicapping a run-of-the-mill Friday card at Gulfstream and noticed that leading rider Luis Saez was not on ANY horses all day. Why would that be I wondered, is he out of town? So I opened up Brisnet and saw that Magnum Moon had been entered in a two-turn allowance race that was coming just six days after the Grade 3 Sam Davis, a prep for the Tampa Bay Derby. And Luis Saez was on board for Todd Pletcher. So, he gave up ALL his mounts at Gulfstream to ride Magnum Moon and he had no other mounts. Despite a wide post and trip he blew by without ever taking a deep breath. I said right then and there, "I think I've found my Derby horse!" But to be honest I wasn't convinced, but I was hopeful he'd run next in the Florida Derby. But the next day I read he was being pointed for the March 17th, $900K Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn. So I'd been anxiously awaiting this day. One problem.....today he'd face off with one of Bob Baffert's star three-year Solomini. Hmmmm. Even leading up to time to go to the windows I was wondering about my logic. But this was my thinking on why I did NOT like Solomini......
Yes, he could boast to not one, not two, but THREE Grade 1 runner-up finishes and he did, to be fair "win" one of those. And to be "further fair," when DQ'd out of the Gr 1 Los Alamitos Futurity win, the awarded winner, McKenzie came back to dominate the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita and the moved up 2nd place horse was Instilled Regard who was my pick on January 3rd in the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds and he romped. BUT......in September when runner up in the Front Runner at Santa Anita, the winner Bolt d'Oro disappointed in the Breeders' Cup (albeit with the WORST ride in the history of thoroughbred racing) and then he came back to beat McKenzie - BY DQ - when they met in the San Felipe. But NEITHER looked like stars to me. And Instilled Regard came back to disappoint badly in the Gr 2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. AND, the winner of the Gr 1 BC Juvenile, Good Magic, looked like a slam dunk in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth even if he didn't run his "A" game and he too disappointed. I was balancing this, my opinion, with the fact that IF Solomini won you'd say, "Well, duh, he was 2nd in three straight Gr 1 events behind horses that are regarded among the best of their generation." And complicating this, handicapper Rick Lee had made Solomini his "Lee's Lock" of the day. But I kept thinking to myself....if I AM right....thinking that Magnum Moon just MIGHT BE my Derby horse, I'm getting a really good price. I stuck with my plan. He stalked the pace, a bit wide, but when they hit the far turn it was time to find out how good he was. Meanwhile Solomini was getting a dream run up the rail. Magnum Moon burst to the front and drew off while Solomini was second, AGAIN. The payoff of 3/1 with my triple investment meant I'd close the day out with a $60 payoff!
What a great day at Laurel! If only I'd only won more live races, but oh-so close!
Sunday March 18
We were both up early for the final day of our weekend racing adventure. When we finished our free breakfast we asked at the front desk and they told us they'd happily keep our bags while we went to the races and then their free shuttle take us to the airport. So we checked out, and the rate was awesome AND they didn't charge us for two residents in the room. So happy. And in the opener at Laurel we both liked Polarization. A stretch duel to inside the final 16th when he put his head in front, but the other horse wouldn't go away.....PHOTO FINISH!
I'm on a roll I think.....having won the finale Saturday and the Sunday opener! But that proved to be the end of my winning locally as I was third twice, fourth, and in the finale a weakening second. Jim on the other hand just blew Laurel up with FIVE winners on the day. Should have let HIM do the handicapping for today and just gone with his selections :) I did add on two more victories from my Gulfstream selections. I've been chasing Run Blondie Run for two and half months now after a photo finish just miss second early in the meet...second again, this time at 4/1 in their opener. After a 4th with the 8/5 second choice in the third I had the popular winner Scatnap in the 4th. It was a claiming event going a one-turn mile. Five runners in the field had won at this one-turn mile, but two had done it vs. weaker competition in the spring/summer meet and another two had done it with slow speed figures. Scatnap was 4-for-7 at the distance while being a woeful 0-for-9 at all other distances. Twice he'd won at this level, then tried $10K last time out ... back to the winning level today and was an easy winner.
I scored my final winning pick of the weekend in Gulfstream's 6th. Inside Trip had debuted at the $25K maiden level going a flat mile in December. FLYING late to be second to be second only 1 1/2 off the winner. So impressed was trainer Saffie Joseph that he moved her up to $50K. A slow pace and carried wide into the lane resulted in a even 7th. Today she was dropping to $20K and just figured.....IF she could negotiate the wide post, get a good pace, and have racing luck for a smooth trip. All made me wonder about her chances so I planned to go only the minimum. But she was being well played so I upped the bet. Cruised to the front turning for home and was an easy winner!
We left Laurel a little after 3 and caught the shuttle to the airport. Watched the last couple of pics online and then Jim's plane was boarding at 5:30. I was scheduled to take off an hour and a half later but our connection from New Orleans was delayed not once, but twice. Finally got out of town about 8 and landed at 10:30 pm. Home by 11 pm and the great adventure had come to a close. Next weekend is Louisiana Derby weekend so there will be a lot of stakes action on the simulcast monitors, and then in two weeks it's closing weekend and Florida Derby Day!
While my buddy Jim Anderson and I were enjoying great time in New Orleans we'd begun tossing around ideas on where we could make our next racing adventure. I mentioned Laurel Park in Maryland because I'd read a lot about how the Stronach Group - which owns Gulfstream - had been spending a lot of money on the facility, and I'd read reports that they were bidding to try to get the Breeders' Cup and/or the Preakness here in the near future. Jim and I discussed a possible fall date. But in early February Kim was telling me about her "Girls' Weekend Getaway" (which I'd known about) and the thought occured to me, "Why am I staying home when she's gone?" I looked at the racing calendar and Laurel was hosting FIVE stakes on Saturday March 17th. I looked into airfare and hotels and emailed Jim and asked if he had any interest. Within 24 hours we were booked! And so began our "Laurel Racing Weekend Adventure!" Click HERE to visit the "Travel Journal" which is a pictorial view of our weekend.
My first bet of the day at Gulfstream had been a maiden claiming sprint for three-year-olds on the turf going five furlongs. The top three program choices had way too many losses already for my taste, so I landed on an 8/1 first time turf runner from the Gilberto Zerpa barn. Dropping out of a troubled MSW dirt try I liked the price. I pulled up the replay from Xpressbet at Gulfstream and was rewarded when I saw my top choice, Bird of Peace track the leader to the top of the lane and then edge clear to score at better than $6!
We found seats in a simulcast area and were delighted when no one, ever, came around to tell us they were "for purchase" seats (and we found out throughout the weekend that NONE of the seats in the simulcast area required purchase!). As we got settled I pointed to the screen and said to Jim, "Check it out, my top choice here at Laurel in the second is 12/1!" As I wrote in my analysis, I would have loved to have had a conversation with the connections of my pick, Squashville Road...check out his past performances here:
What was the story with his races from the first of November to the middle of January? Note how all of them were going a distance of ground, at this same $5K level, and with the same rider. Yet suddenly off a 4th place finish he's "abandoned" at the windows in December and is nearly 12/1 and runs to his odds. Then off that awful effort he's 40/1 and runs to it. But then just as unexpectedly in his next start, despite the abysmal effort he was bet down to 9/2 and WINS! Then is bet down again to 5/2 and WINS again!. He seems on a roll. I was thinking I'd need low odds for him to win, but there he was sitting at double digits. I can't say for sure, but I may have been tempted NOT to bet if I had been making the bet live, but I'd already made the play online prior to take-off in Florida. We went to the rail and watched. Right to the front, and set a very slow pace. As they approached the far turn I realized that NO ONE was making up any ground and that I had a very real chance to win with my first live race selection at Laurel. The field closed ground late, and one in particular got close, but it was too little too late! A HUGE $24.80 payoff and I was cashing for more than $60!
WHOOO HOOOO! I was just sorry that Jim had elected to pass the race! Jim's been "taking classes" at his home track, Canterbury every other week and is becoming a past performance-reading handicapper so we had a lot of great conversation about the selection process and reading the Form all weekend. As we looked at the upcoming third at Laurel I pointed out to him that IF the race was run to the way it appeared on paper no one, and I mean NO ONE would go with Showmeister to the front, and he'd be LONG gone. I probably would have been easily tempted to bet more than the minimum but I was reluctant because (a) this was a cheap $5K claiming race and (b) 'Show was coming off of a win. Claimers, especially cheap ones are notoriously inconsistent. But my pace analysis was spot on. Right to the front and was never threatened! My second live action win!
The fourth at Gulfstream was a starter optional claimer and again, I probably would have invested more on Shaft of Light, except for the circumstances. Shaft of Light is a VERY quick horse and is a restricted stakes winner. BUT he's faltered on at least one occasion with my money at a short price and that fact that such a quality runner was in a Starter Optional Claiming event - AND going seven furlongs rather than six - had me a bit concerned. If he ran his race AND he ran to his previous efforts at the distance (8/4-0-2) he'd be the easiest of winners. But I also was well aware he'd be no price at all, so I only doubled the bet. Right to the front and was LONG GONE, and I've won four of five to kick off the weekend. WOW!
Back to reality as I had two misses at Laurel and another at Gulfstream as we headed into the seventh at Laurel. In spite the fact that Saturday nearly always has higher quality runners, AND that there were multiple stakes races on my selection sheet from all three tracks, the BET of the WEEKEND came in this entry level allowance. This six furlong test would NEVER make me rich, but it was about as close to the proverbial "mortal lock" as you could get. The facts were these.....of the one-hundred and seventeen combined races run by those lining up to face Wonderful Light none, zero of those Beyer speed figures would beat HIS LAST THREE figures. That, in and of itself would make him a prime-time play. But there was more....he had a decent enough third in his debut at Aqueduct, and it was over the slop by the way, and then he came right back and was third to a colt named Mr. Crow. Wouldn't have meant much to the average player, but for me - who handicaps all the time - I immediately recognized the name. Mr. Crow had earned a huge 99 in that runner-up effort and came back to win at odds-on at Saratoga where he earned a gigantic 109 speed figure. I know this because I had him in his next start. I remember it vividly because the grumpy Andy Serline went on and on about how "no one should play" a short priced favorite like Mr. Crow in his first try against winners and stretching out in distance. I wanted to tell him that if Todd Pletcher thought he fit, then he fit! He walked with that Saratoga race and earned a 104 Beyer then went into graded stakes. The point being that when Wonderful Light earned a 94 for that third place effort then earned an even bigger 102 in his maiden win. Both the runner-up and show colts exited that race to win. In his first try vs. winners Wonderful Light was a sharp second, nearly three clear of the show, to a Godolphin runner named Westwood who came right back to win again AND Wonderful Light got another big figure, 99. Jim kept asking if I was going to up the bet, but I was just a little reluctant because it WAS on a Friday, at Laurel, in an entry level allowance. AND I knew I wouldn't be making any money by upping the wager, so I stuck with my original play which was still good enough, as I said to be the BET of the Weekend.
With my last selection at Laurel scratching Jim and I headed back to the hotel and asked about a local place that would serve us up some crab! But before we left I did a quick bit of math and shot a short video to celebrate my 3-for-5 day at Laurel where locally I'd profited over $50! Off to a great start!
Saturday - Rebel Stakes Day
I can't describe how friendly and helpful the staff was at the Marriott Residence Inn. We enjoyed every moment there, and one of the bonus points was the complimentary full breakfast that was provided! We got off to a great start and headed out to the track a little after eleven fifteen so we'd have plenty of time to get settled in with good seats for a full day of action!
The weather yesterday had been brisk - especially when the breeze/wind picked up and today it was very similar...and it was overcast with what the weather people said was a good chance for some form of precipitation in the late afternoon. So let's just get this part of the Saturday afternoon story out of the way right off the bat......it was the tenth at Gulfstream and jockey Javier Castellano - sketchy at best for the last couple years after being far and away THE dominant jockey in North America - was working on what would turn out to be a five-win afternoon. He was on Todd Pletcher's Divide, who was a 3yo in a Maiden Special on the turf. He came flying on the outside at a huge 8/1 price.....three-way photo finish!
The reason I start with this story of all the good vibe stories is because in a nutshell it was the theme to the afternoon. After a strong showing yesterday, especially locally, Laurel was NOT kind to me today. Although to be fair, I was all around it.....
That's right, F-I-V-E second place finishes, and add to that two thirds and a fourth. I did take some consolation that the two pros being PAID to pick, AND having their selections published in the program were a combined 2-for-22 with BOTH wins coming from one guy. As I said to Jim, I could easily pick 0-for-11 (or even 2-for-11) and I'd do it for half their pay, what ever they are making! So considering this background, I'm very satisfied to say I was well over 30% for the day and did very well at Oaklawn where the featured national events were going on. Here's how the upside of the day played out......After three misses at Gulfstream and two at Laurel it was time for the opener at Oaklawn. And in the opener, a non-winners of added money allowance it was my BEST of the Day in Hot Springs. Trainer Larry Jones had a very talented 3yo filly last year in Jenda's Agenda. She won her first three starts as a sophomore, the last two at odds-on and was my pick of the day when slated to run here at Laurel in the Ceasar's Washington. But she scratched on race day and wasn't seen until this winter when she was second in a Fair Grounds sprint. Considering she was off an eleven month layoff AND making her first start against older I thought it was a sharp comeback. Today she stretched out farther than she'd ever been. But it was also true that the filly that beat her in New Orleans had already come back to win and Jenda's Agenda had fired a sensational bullet work - best of 45 in a sizzling :59 flat for five furlongs. Right to the front and was never threatened. The only "issue" came as I waited for the prices to come up, the rider of the second place runner lodged an objection. If you watch my highlight video you can see the slo-mo replay. As I said to Jim, "I've seen much worse NOT get taken down and others taken down for MUCH LESS." But the stewards did the right thing and she got the money. That she was even money was a generous price I thought, and I gladly collected over $40!
Minutes later they were in the gate for a maiden claiming sprint going five and a half furlongs at Gulfstream. I liked MIss Jak who was a first time starter for trainer Gilberto Zerpa. While I was pretty confident she'd never been the post-time favorite, I also knew that this was yet ANOTHER example of "who makes the early odds for the DRF?" as she was listed at an absurd 50/1 by the linesmaker at the Daily Racing Form, but 9/2 in the Gulfstream official program. She came rallying wide and edged clear late to WIN.....two in a row!
The nice $7 payoff meant I'd collect another $35 at the Laurel windows :) Second at even money at Laurel before I scored again at Oaklawn. This time in a claiming event with Abba who was 2/1. Wishing I'd bet more on her because as I wrote in my analysis I KNEW the crowd would put a lot of money on the "name riders," but Abba loves this strip with a 9/5-1-1 local record. She'd been lost via a claim but was re-claimed by trainer John Ortiz. I didn't know at the time - because most of the race calls from out of town are not broadcast in the simulcast center - but it's well worth listening to Vic Stauffer's call in the highlight video. To appreciate it you would have to know that the Swedish band, Abba, provided all the songs on the soundtrack to the musical film "Mama Mia!"
The $6 payout earned me another $15 to my bankroll. I was a huge 8/1 when second in Oaklawn's fifth behind my second choice and the post-time favorite, before scoring in their sixth - another added money allowance with South Beach who was 8/5 and earned me another near $30.
I was so irritated at myself for Gulfstream's featured Grade 2 Inside Information. First I was irritated that somehow I'd completely missed the fact that the odds-on favorite, Ivy Bell, was a Todd Pletcher filly. I also missed that she was making her first start for him off a trainer change, one of my most favorite angles, ESPECIALLY when he brings them first time out in a stakes. And I'm even more angry that I DID REALIZE this well before the race went off and STILL did not change my selection. Had all kind of racing trouble - another questionable ride by Castellano COULD be blamed - but she was more than good enough to run by the entire field through the final furlong. Sigh......In retrospect - and I also DID consider this - I should have bet more in Oaklawn's seventh. When Jim and I were in New Orleans we'd played Oaklawn and in a maiden race I pointed out a colt by the name of Mitole who I'd bet in his debut at the Fair Grounds. He was away a bit slowly that day and wide through into the stretch, second. When she came back I supported him again and he drew off by more than a dozen lengths. And on THAT afternoon his final time was two ticks faster than the time run by older sprinters at the same distance! And a month later there was a national article about his first start against winners, in the six furlong listed Gazebo Stakes where the writer said that this COULD be a Kentucky Derby prep! But he bobbled at the start, then rushed up, dueled and lost a photo, second. So TODAY he was back in allowance company and looked tons the best on paper. And he was. Again, while only 4/5, considering how talented I think he is it was a very generous price and I wish I'd bet more.
While it certainly wasn't the 8/1 that I WOULD have liked to have got on Divide, Javier Castellano produced on Todd Pletcher's Your Only Man in Gulfstream's 12th, a starter allowance on the turf. Tracked the leaders to the turn, swung wide for clear run and won driving to the wire at a very nice $8.80 allowing me to cash for nearly $50!
The finale at Laurel was a maiden claiming event going a one-turn mile. And sometimes you just have to know "race track logic." As I pointed out, I'd already had FIVE seconds, two thirds, and a fourth from the eight bets I'd made at Laurel. While none were more than a double investment, most were that. So we come into this event and my plan was to bet the minimum on Xtracurricular. The race looked wide open and I'd remarked in my analysis that "...any result would not surprise...." but I liked this guy because in his debut he was in post fourteen of fourteen, then missed the break to be behind twelve of them early on AND over a sloppy surface. He "improved" to be ninth while passing at least some horses. That was for a $40K tag and today he dropped in for $20K and the barn was nearly 30% with second time maiden starters at a big $6.86 ROI. So that's why I DID pick him. But as I was about to go to the betting window it occurred to me, "....how ironic if the ONLY win I have of the day is IN THE FINALE and I've only got the minimum...." I am smarter than the race track logic, so I doubled the bet. Xtracurricular shot through on the rail in mid-stretch and drew off. He was 5/1 in the program and 3/1 when they went in the gate, but only 7/5 at post time. Still, I was happy to F-I-N-A-L-L-Y have a local winning pick!
Yes, he could boast to not one, not two, but THREE Grade 1 runner-up finishes and he did, to be fair "win" one of those. And to be "further fair," when DQ'd out of the Gr 1 Los Alamitos Futurity win, the awarded winner, McKenzie came back to dominate the Grade 3 Sham at Santa Anita and the moved up 2nd place horse was Instilled Regard who was my pick on January 3rd in the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds and he romped. BUT......in September when runner up in the Front Runner at Santa Anita, the winner Bolt d'Oro disappointed in the Breeders' Cup (albeit with the WORST ride in the history of thoroughbred racing) and then he came back to beat McKenzie - BY DQ - when they met in the San Felipe. But NEITHER looked like stars to me. And Instilled Regard came back to disappoint badly in the Gr 2 Risen Star at the Fair Grounds. AND, the winner of the Gr 1 BC Juvenile, Good Magic, looked like a slam dunk in the Gr 2 Fountain of Youth even if he didn't run his "A" game and he too disappointed. I was balancing this, my opinion, with the fact that IF Solomini won you'd say, "Well, duh, he was 2nd in three straight Gr 1 events behind horses that are regarded among the best of their generation." And complicating this, handicapper Rick Lee had made Solomini his "Lee's Lock" of the day. But I kept thinking to myself....if I AM right....thinking that Magnum Moon just MIGHT BE my Derby horse, I'm getting a really good price. I stuck with my plan. He stalked the pace, a bit wide, but when they hit the far turn it was time to find out how good he was. Meanwhile Solomini was getting a dream run up the rail. Magnum Moon burst to the front and drew off while Solomini was second, AGAIN. The payoff of 3/1 with my triple investment meant I'd close the day out with a $60 payoff!
Sunday March 18
We were both up early for the final day of our weekend racing adventure. When we finished our free breakfast we asked at the front desk and they told us they'd happily keep our bags while we went to the races and then their free shuttle take us to the airport. So we checked out, and the rate was awesome AND they didn't charge us for two residents in the room. So happy. And in the opener at Laurel we both liked Polarization. A stretch duel to inside the final 16th when he put his head in front, but the other horse wouldn't go away.....PHOTO FINISH!
I scored my final winning pick of the weekend in Gulfstream's 6th. Inside Trip had debuted at the $25K maiden level going a flat mile in December. FLYING late to be second to be second only 1 1/2 off the winner. So impressed was trainer Saffie Joseph that he moved her up to $50K. A slow pace and carried wide into the lane resulted in a even 7th. Today she was dropping to $20K and just figured.....IF she could negotiate the wide post, get a good pace, and have racing luck for a smooth trip. All made me wonder about her chances so I planned to go only the minimum. But she was being well played so I upped the bet. Cruised to the front turning for home and was an easy winner!
We left Laurel a little after 3 and caught the shuttle to the airport. Watched the last couple of pics online and then Jim's plane was boarding at 5:30. I was scheduled to take off an hour and a half later but our connection from New Orleans was delayed not once, but twice. Finally got out of town about 8 and landed at 10:30 pm. Home by 11 pm and the great adventure had come to a close. Next weekend is Louisiana Derby weekend so there will be a lot of stakes action on the simulcast monitors, and then in two weeks it's closing weekend and Florida Derby Day!
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