March 7 - 11
With the exception of when Kim and I travel, we live a pretty simple life and have very little social interaction. One, because I'm retired so I really don't see anyone on a regular basis and two, all of Kim's best girlfriends have retired and moved away. But this week we were truly "social butterflies" and it all started on the first racing day of the week.....
Wednesday March 7
A year ago last October (so that would be October 2016) I truly stepped "outside my comfort zone" by traveling to France on a Viking River Cruise.....by myself. You can see all the details of the adventure by clicking HERE. I knew I'd enjoy the trip, because I love to travel and to see the history, etc. But the one thing I was truly anxious about was when meal time came, what would I do for companionship? Would I end up stuck all alone at a table by myself? So the first two and a half days I did fine, then the third dinner I had sat down beside an elderly lady who obviously had a friend she was saving a seat for. But then the waiter came and told her that her friend was at another table. So she excused herself and left me all alone. No sooner had she left than a very friendly gentleman at the next table said, "Hey there, are you alone? Come join our table!" And so began a ten-day friendship with John & Kim Baird. After the cruise we remained in contact via email and Facebook. They are from Montreal and are big hockey fans. So earlier this year he let me know they were coming to Ft. Lauderdale following a Caribbean cruise and wanted to get together for a day at the races, dinner with "my Kim" and then the hockey game the next night. So I met them at Gulfstream with my father-in-law Ed tagging along.
Our friendship picked right up from where we left off like we'd just seen each other last week. We had a great time together at the races and then that night at dinner at our house where "my Kim" had prepared steak, baked potatoes, salad, and a vegetable. Unfortunately the day at the races was not nearly as successful. It was not the best of cards and probably I would not have had quite as many selections had I not known we were meeting there. My picks ran third, then a close second, and then three in a row off the board. We had one more race before we were heading out (to beat the rush-hour traffic) and it was in the seventh, a starter optional claiming event on the turf. Royal Blessings promised to be the kind of selection that if he won or if he lost you'd be saying "What was I thinking?" His last two speed figures were clearly superior to the rest of these, but he'd been the beaten favorite in both. What kind of race would we get today. He sat well off the leaders, made his move coming off the turn and then a stretch duel ensued. He was JUST up in time and we all cheered mightily as we had a winner!
Though he was the 8/5 favorite, still I had doubled the investment and cashed for nearly $30. But that turned out to be the lone winner on the day.
Thursday March 8
We really enjoyed the evening at the hockey game with John & Kim AND our Panthers drilled their Montreal Canadians (though they were just as glad because they won't make the playoffs and they'd like to have a lesser record for a higher draft pick!) .... final score of 5-0! Wish I could tell you the racing went as well, but alas I was a dismal 0-for-6 without a single runner in the money. Ouch, not the way I want to be heading into our big racing adventure weekend!
Friday March 9
I had finished handicapping for the weekend by noon and had made my wagers online. Kim got home about 12:30 from school and we loaded the car and were off on the 2 1/2 hour plus drive to the west coast of Florida to her parents' condo in Englewood, Florida. We walked down to a waterfront restaurant and had a light dinner and then before playing cards I checked out my racing results by watching the replays on xpressbet.com.....
In the first selection of the day was a maiden claimer going a mile on the turf and I went with Charnley River. He'd done nothing but sprint since coming from Australia and joining the Christophe Clement barn, but today he was stretching out AND dropping out of MSW company. Class droppers like this were scoring at a huge 41% for the barn and hot riding Irad Ortiz was up. Right to the front and never looked back.
The fifth was a 3yo Maiden Special sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. Three weeks ago the DRF's Mike Welsch had made first time starter Noble Commander his BEST BET despite the fact that he was a first time starter. He went off as the favorite that day and did win, but I was impressed when the runner-up gave him everything he could handle before falling just short. That colt was Noble Drama and not only did he give the prohibitive chalk a test, he was also seven lengths clear of the show runner. If not knocked out by that effort he was your winner I felt. He tracked the 2/1 second choice into the turn and took over readily. Through the length of the stretch the margin widened and widened to nearly double digit lengths. I doubled the bet on my second winner of the day.
The final three selections did not produce, but I almost had a nice one in the finale when Todd Pletcher's Boom Daddy (3/1) when right to the front and led all the way to the final twenty yards when run down by another first-time starter. Close......
Saturday March 10
Saturday we spent the day in Tampa at Tampa Bay Downs for the Festival Day. Not only was it a great day of racing, but I really enjoyed spending it with friends and family. You can check out the specifics by clicking HERE to go to the Tampa Bay Derby Day page.
Sunday March 11
The final day of racing for the week took place while Kim and I were returning home from the west coast of the state. I made my bets in the morning and then we left about 12:30 to head to the Port Charlotte Mall where we were meeting long-time friends Tom & Sonia Tirb at a local wings place. We met them at 1 pm sharp and were there until well past 4 pm. Then we made the 2 1/2 hour and change trek across Alligator Alley. By the time we were home it was past 6:30 pm and shortly thereafter I opened up the race replays to see how the final day had turned out. The first four races provided me with nothing that I felt comfortable betting on. Just for the record, one of the four choices scratched and I won with two of the other three, but they were both very short priced favorites, so I really didn't miss out on anything other than the win stats. The fifth was a Maiden Special for 3yo sprinting six furlongs and five of the six were first-time starters. I'm always a bit cautious about these kind of races towards the end of the meet, especially for top trainer Todd Pletcher. I don't have the data to back the feeling, but it SEEMS to me that his best 3yo runners are debuted in January and February. Still, this looked like a promising group and Pletcher did send out the $400K sales grad Autostrade with John Velazquez. It was a plus, for me, that he was owned by the St. Elias Stable which also owned Florida & Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. Broke sharply, went right to the front and dueled into the lane with the lone runner who had experience. Put that one away and drew off. But the best part.....he paid a generous $6.80 and I had tripled the investment allowing me to cash for over $50!
Passed the sixth, but I scored again in the seventh. This race/selection is a microcosm of my handicapping and betting. I KNOW that playing the races is not and never will be a "side job" that produces a steady income. But I enjoy it as a hobby AND I am good enough at it to not lose money. Note on my profile page that over a span of 20,000 plus races I've earned nearly $2 for ever $2 bet! That's better than 93% of my fellow horseplayers (according to the research). Anyway, in the 7th, Burton was what the "pros" would call a "bad bet." He was listed at even money so you knew he'd not pay anything. Worse, he'd finished second three times in a row - three back at 7/5, two back at even money, and last time out at 3/5 odds. But top rider Luis Saez was sticking and in THIS field he looked easily best. After a sharp break he was taken back just off the 9/1 leader to the far turn. Then he opened up with ease and drew off as tons the best. I happily collected my near-$20 on my bet for what seemed like a "gimme." Missed on the next two, one of which was a Pletcher MSW sprinter who I was pretty sure would win, but didn't fire. Then in the finale I went with The Hardest Way. If you weren't careful it would appear he was an inconsistent runner. BUT if you looked carefully he had earned Beyers of 82, 80 and 75 (1st time vs. winners) and then switched barns....producing lesser figures. Before his most recent he returned to the original connections and responded with a career best 87 when second by a neck. Sat fourth to the top of the lane and when asked drew off handily - I'm sure he reproduced that last number! The 8/5 favorite paid nearly $30 to me and I was a winner for the day!
Next week I'll have picks at Gulfstream all week, but on Friday morning I fly to Baltimore to meet my buddy Jim Anderson for a racing weekend at Laurel so I'll handicap their three weekend cards!
In the first selection of the day was a maiden claimer going a mile on the turf and I went with Charnley River. He'd done nothing but sprint since coming from Australia and joining the Christophe Clement barn, but today he was stretching out AND dropping out of MSW company. Class droppers like this were scoring at a huge 41% for the barn and hot riding Irad Ortiz was up. Right to the front and never looked back.
The fifth was a 3yo Maiden Special sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs. Three weeks ago the DRF's Mike Welsch had made first time starter Noble Commander his BEST BET despite the fact that he was a first time starter. He went off as the favorite that day and did win, but I was impressed when the runner-up gave him everything he could handle before falling just short. That colt was Noble Drama and not only did he give the prohibitive chalk a test, he was also seven lengths clear of the show runner. If not knocked out by that effort he was your winner I felt. He tracked the 2/1 second choice into the turn and took over readily. Through the length of the stretch the margin widened and widened to nearly double digit lengths. I doubled the bet on my second winner of the day.
The final three selections did not produce, but I almost had a nice one in the finale when Todd Pletcher's Boom Daddy (3/1) when right to the front and led all the way to the final twenty yards when run down by another first-time starter. Close......
Saturday March 10
Saturday we spent the day in Tampa at Tampa Bay Downs for the Festival Day. Not only was it a great day of racing, but I really enjoyed spending it with friends and family. You can check out the specifics by clicking HERE to go to the Tampa Bay Derby Day page.
Tampa Bay Derby Day Highlights
Sunday March 11
The final day of racing for the week took place while Kim and I were returning home from the west coast of the state. I made my bets in the morning and then we left about 12:30 to head to the Port Charlotte Mall where we were meeting long-time friends Tom & Sonia Tirb at a local wings place. We met them at 1 pm sharp and were there until well past 4 pm. Then we made the 2 1/2 hour and change trek across Alligator Alley. By the time we were home it was past 6:30 pm and shortly thereafter I opened up the race replays to see how the final day had turned out. The first four races provided me with nothing that I felt comfortable betting on. Just for the record, one of the four choices scratched and I won with two of the other three, but they were both very short priced favorites, so I really didn't miss out on anything other than the win stats. The fifth was a Maiden Special for 3yo sprinting six furlongs and five of the six were first-time starters. I'm always a bit cautious about these kind of races towards the end of the meet, especially for top trainer Todd Pletcher. I don't have the data to back the feeling, but it SEEMS to me that his best 3yo runners are debuted in January and February. Still, this looked like a promising group and Pletcher did send out the $400K sales grad Autostrade with John Velazquez. It was a plus, for me, that he was owned by the St. Elias Stable which also owned Florida & Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming. Broke sharply, went right to the front and dueled into the lane with the lone runner who had experience. Put that one away and drew off. But the best part.....he paid a generous $6.80 and I had tripled the investment allowing me to cash for over $50!
Passed the sixth, but I scored again in the seventh. This race/selection is a microcosm of my handicapping and betting. I KNOW that playing the races is not and never will be a "side job" that produces a steady income. But I enjoy it as a hobby AND I am good enough at it to not lose money. Note on my profile page that over a span of 20,000 plus races I've earned nearly $2 for ever $2 bet! That's better than 93% of my fellow horseplayers (according to the research). Anyway, in the 7th, Burton was what the "pros" would call a "bad bet." He was listed at even money so you knew he'd not pay anything. Worse, he'd finished second three times in a row - three back at 7/5, two back at even money, and last time out at 3/5 odds. But top rider Luis Saez was sticking and in THIS field he looked easily best. After a sharp break he was taken back just off the 9/1 leader to the far turn. Then he opened up with ease and drew off as tons the best. I happily collected my near-$20 on my bet for what seemed like a "gimme." Missed on the next two, one of which was a Pletcher MSW sprinter who I was pretty sure would win, but didn't fire. Then in the finale I went with The Hardest Way. If you weren't careful it would appear he was an inconsistent runner. BUT if you looked carefully he had earned Beyers of 82, 80 and 75 (1st time vs. winners) and then switched barns....producing lesser figures. Before his most recent he returned to the original connections and responded with a career best 87 when second by a neck. Sat fourth to the top of the lane and when asked drew off handily - I'm sure he reproduced that last number! The 8/5 favorite paid nearly $30 to me and I was a winner for the day!
Next week I'll have picks at Gulfstream all week, but on Friday morning I fly to Baltimore to meet my buddy Jim Anderson for a racing weekend at Laurel so I'll handicap their three weekend cards!
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