Saturday March 10
The first of the big "Racing Adventures" in March before Kim and I fly off to Europe for a Viking River Cruise along the Rhine River saw us drive from Fort Lauderdale to Englewood to meet her parents and have dinner Friday night. Saturday morning we were on the road by 9:00 am with a projected arrival at Tampa Bay Downs a little before 11:00 am. I had put together a program for all six of us where I analyzed each and every one of the twelve races on the Tampa Festival card and I included for the others a "Racing Basics" handout which had the track layout and some basics about handicapping and some specifics about Tampa's current meet. Everyone appreciated the effort, but it was I who was most appreciative because they all joined me for the big day of racing. I love my racing adventures, but they are even more fun when I can share them with friends & family. And this year's Tampa adventure included Kim and her Mom going along; Ed and I met Anya and her husband Jack here last year and it was really good to see them/spend the day with them again. For my personal program I included the same info, but my selection sheet was expanded to include not only the Tampa races, but my picks from Gulfstream, Oaklawn, and Santa Anita. The drive was very smooth (much more so than the drive to or back from Englewood to Ft. Lauderdale!) and we pulled into a front-row parking spot just before eleven. We got a free program and an insulated tote bag as a gift and then headed to the rail for the obligatory photos......
Anya & Jack were held up in traffic & parking until just before the second race, but I didn't like anyone in the first so in my mind they didn't miss anything :) Kim is so sweet any time we go to the races together, rather than simply pick a name, number or color, she will bet an exacta on races where I don't have a pick, or use my picks in a similar bet. She never bets against me, preferring to simply cheer on my horses while playing the part of a good hostess. So in the opener the winner was a runner I ALMOST bet on even though I didn't even mention him. I'd checked the local handicapper's picks for the day after I was done handicapping and in the opener, a claiming race, it was his "BEST" of the day....and he won as the favorite. Oh well. Shortly after the first at Tampa was official it was nearing time for the second at Gulfstream, my first wagering selection of the day. Song of Melody was a "sketchy" pick to me, and the "pros" would certainly steer clear of such. But I bet who I think is going to win, if I truly believe this regardless of price, etc. Song of Melody had just beaten $16K claimers by EIGHTEEN lengths last time out but instead of moving him up in class the connections DROPPED him to this $12.5K claiming sprint. Nobody gives anything away for free at the races, so my thinking was, (a) he probably wasn't as good as he appeared last time out, (b) he WAS probably much better than these, even with a regression in form, and (c) the connections might have been thinking that other trainers/owners would shy away from such a class dropper and they could steal the purse while the horse was in good form. He prompted the pace to the stretch and while he had to work to get to the front, once there, he was LONG gone. Win Number One on the day!
Before heading back to join the others I made my next bet, on the second at Tampa. And despite the stakes-filled card, this maiden event for three-year-olds was my BET of the Day.....not only here, but of all the races at all the tracks! Two weeks ago when we were in Orlando visiting Brad, Lauren and little Oliver, I'd played Gulfstream's Saturday races, obviously. And that afternoon my BEST of the day was a maiden special for three-year-olds.....yes, a Todd Pletcher colt. But for what ever reason the first time starter had been an early scratch. When I looked at the entries for today's Tampa card I was thrilled that Ruler of the Nile, that same colt was entered today! Typically Pletcher sends a top maiden and/or experienced runners here on this day and this guy was no exception, I thought. First, he was a son of Pioneerofthe Nile, who was the sire of Triple Crown/Breeders' Cup Champion American Pharoah. Second, the connections had laid out a cool $1 MILLION to purchase this guy three years ago; and finally, it WAS Pletcher with John Velazquez. Only something unforeseen, in my opinion would prevent him winning here as an odds-on choice. After I made my bet and returned to our seats I discovered Anya and Jack had arrived. After exchanging greetings they asked who I liked here, and I gave them their programs and pointed out that this was my BEST of the day. Jack noted that Ruler of the Nile was odds-on and wouldn't pay much. But, as I explained, this kind of pick is not about making money, it's about being right and backing it with my own money. Shortly before they loaded into the gate the price floated up to 2/5 and I thought that was absolute highway robbery. But late money came in and he was back to 1/5 at post time. Johnny V. rated him patiently off the longshot leader and waited just long enough on the turn for some fans (and the announcer) to think that maybe, just maybe the local price play 3yo could upset him. But there would be none of that as Ruler of the Nile kicked into another gear and drew off stylishly.
Jack chuckled when he pointed out that Ed only made sixty cents on his bet, then he asked about me. I showed him my $50 win ticket and explained I'd be cashing for a nice $65. Always nice to win and be right! Unfortunately seven of the next eight selections on my sheet did not produce, although I did run 2nd FOUR times and third once in that sequence. And, while I was more than delighted with the way the day turned out (as you'll read farther down), it could have been a HUGE day had I not just failed to catch the longshot at Tampa in the fourth and just failed to last to another longshot at Oaklawn in this sequence.....
The one victory in the string came in Gulfstream's seventh, a non-winner's of two lifetime going seven and a half furlongs on the grass. It was an interesting selection, to me at least, because this was not a typical angle for me. As I noted it's one thing when a horse suddenly reverses form and begins to rattle off wins, but when you can catch a TRAINER suddenly starting to win races, in bunches none the less, it's time to add that into the equation. Over the last week and change I've noticed the Bill Mott barn, who'd been pretty quiet at Gulfstream, suddenly posing in the winner's circle, and often with nice prices on the board. So here, Reflected Star was entered off of back-to-back strong efforts against better. AND the winners of those races had run big next time out. Third off the layoff today and top rider Luis Saez was on board. Reflected Star made his move into the lane and ran away as much the best. I wasn't surprised he won, but that he paid a generous $6.60 allowed me to cash out for nearly $35!
The seventh at Tampa was the first of the five stakes races, the Columbia Stakes for three-year-old fillies on the turf. Todd Pletcher had sent his very talented filly, Gidu to Tampa to run here. That, in and of itself would have caught my attention. BUT....on February 3rd, Holy Bull Day, one of the supporting stakes had been the Grade 3 Dania Beach for three-year-old fillies. I did NOT like the favorite that day (who had been a fast-closing second in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf at a big price previously) and thought that Gidu had an upset chance. This in spite of the fact that she'd just graduated in a FIVE FURLONG turf sprint and in the Dania Beach would be stretching out to a two turn mile. But she ran courageously and was JUST nipped at the wire (NOT by the favorite I might add). I thought today, second time long and dropping into a listed stakes, she'd prove much the best. My original plan was to make her a "prime time" investment, but when all the money showed I upped the bet. Unlike in the Dania Beach where she led gate to final head-bobbing finish, today she sat comfortably in a stalking position to the far turn. Much like Ruler of the Nile the roar of the crowd and the enthusiasm of the announcer led me to think that they thought there was an upset chance, but that was NOT happening.
As a side story, we had front row seats in the grandstand. But there is a walkway in front of the grandstand about waist high and box seats further down. So even though no one is sitting in front of you, when people along the walkway or in the box seats stand, you do not have a clear view of the track....especially if you are filming, like I was. So each time the field came for home I would stand to get a clear shot of the stretch run with my camera. Just as Gidu was clearing the sixteenth pole some jerk behind me starts jerking on my jacket and bobbles the finish of the race. I considered making something out of it, but I just didn't want to give them the satisfaction. AND I figured we'd be at the rail for the next, so I didn't....but still, talk about rude! Right after the race Anya remarked that we needed a group photo, and I announced that I had a race in Southern California that I was going to watch and then I wanted to watch the next Tampa race, the Challenger Stakes, from the rail. That, I explained would be a great time for all of us to meet there and take a photo. I won with the Bob Baffert first-time starter McKale (my fifth winner on the day) and headed to the rail. I secured a good spot right by the finish line. But with about ten minutes to post Jack found me and said they were all standing along the rail at the sixteenth pole. So I gave up my prime spot and joined them. I was looking around for someone to take our posed picture when Jack had us all turn and he took a "selfie." I thought it was THE best photo of the day......
The Challenger Stakes was for older horses and it was a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Last year I'd won this race with Todd Pletcher's Sandford who set the track record for the race and the distance. Today when I looked over the field I was presented with a handicapping dilemma....there was another Todd Pletcher horse, You're To Blame, with John Velazquez. And he was coming off a decisive win at Gulfstream, but I didn't pick him. My choice was War Story who was trained by So Fla-based Jorge Navarro. While it was true that over the past FOURTEEN months War Story had only two wins, he'd also been third or fourth in five others AND had earned over $1.5 Million because he was racing against the elite of thoroughbred racing. He'd chased over that span.....Breeders' Cup & Pegasus Cup champion Arrogate twice, three other multiple graded stakes winners once each, and in his last five starts he'd been chasing Breeders' Cup/Pegasus Cup/Horse of the Year Gun Runner! As I remarked in my analysis, there were certainly no Gun Runners in this line-up! I also liked the fact that Irad Ortiz was riding because he'd only been on twenty-one horses for Navarro over the last two years but had won with TEN of them! The problem - from a handicapping stand-point - was the distance. War Story CLEARLY would prefer at the minimum a mile and an eighth if not longer. How would he adapt to the shorter distance, and more importantly the more likely quicker pace? No worries. He prompted the pace handily to the far turn, accelerated to the front and drew off by daylight as he sprinted right by us :) WHOOOO HOOOOO! My sixth win of the day, third at Tampa and second stakes win in a row!
I didn't have anything until the next race here at Tampa, the first of three straight graded stakes, the Grade 2 Hillsborough going nine furlongs on the grass. After looking over the field my first impression was that NO ONE could really have a lot of confidence in their selection here because easily as many as eight of the ten older fillies & mares in the 20th edition of this event could win and I wouldn't be surprised. I could make a case for several of them, and I admitted - in writing - that perhaps my deciding factor was over-thinking it, but here was my thoughts on picking Fourstar Crook. First, the distance was nine furlongs and most of these either had a single win or none at the distance, but 'Crook was 2-for-2. Second, she was from Chad Brown's barn and he's one of the top turf trainers in North America. Irad Ortiz was riding and he's been the hottest jockey at Gulfstream over the last month. I remarked, in writing, that IF Fourstar Crook "stole" this (oh clever Mr. Mark for his play on words!) fans would say afterwards, "How did I let a Chad Brown horse, with Irad Ortiz, who's 2-for-2 at the distance AND has won eight of her last ten starts beat me at a price!" - well, I knew I wouldn't be saying that. But the deciding factor was this.....most of the contenders were NEWLY TURNED four-year-olds who had built their resumes against strictly three-year-olds last year. But Fourstar Crook was NOT a newly turned four-year-old and had already raced against and beaten older. Finally, four of her last five speed figures would easily win this. I decided to not only play but double the bet. As they hit the far turn she was inside, and still in mid-pack as I turned on the camera. But as they passed the turf chute I could see she was in the clear and absolutely FLYING .... could she get there in time? P-H-O-T-O FINISH!
Oh, you betcha she got there! And paid a nice $9.80 so I'd cash for nearly $50! It was no sooner official than I headed back into the simulcast area to watch the co-feature from Oaklawn where my "BEST" of the day there was on Whitmore to win the Hot Springs Stakes. I'd seen him, and bet him, when we were at Oaklawn last spring and at the time he was thought to be the top sprinter in the country. But while he did win twice after the close of Oaklawn's meet, it was pretty clear that far and away his best races were in Arkansas. So to see him in the entries today I was already leaning that way. Then I noticed his most recent workout over the track....a best of 43 bullet work followed by a sizzling best of seventy-one bullet move. Whitmore tracked the multiple stakes winning front runner to the top of the lane, evened out and took dead-aim on him. Glided right on by and I thought he'd run away. But a deep closer was gobbling up ground quickly......too late, I've got the winner! He paid a generous (I thought) $4.80 and my ticket was worth nearly $75!
Missed the next two, and in the final live race, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, my handicapping selection scratched. To be fair I did have a "fun bet" on the race - Todd Pletcher's colt, but he didn't fire, just ran evenly to be fourth. What WAS interesting was that the winner was an upset runner and that makes nearly every prep race for the Kentucky Derby now has been won by a big price horse. Figuring the "Run for the Roses" is NOT going to be easy! We said our good-byes and headed to the car. I had three races left that I'd bet early in the day through my xpressbet.com account, so when we reached the restaurant about an hour later I pulled up the replays to watch. The first two of the three did not produce winners, though it was a "good bet" when I took Amy's Challenge to stretch out off three consecutive sprint races in the mile and a sixteenth Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn. Led all the way to deep stretch at a big 7/2 price and just failed to last, second. The final bet of the day was in the finale at Gulfstream, the co-featured Captiva Island Stakes sprinting five furlongs on the turf. Here was my analysis, which I pulled up prior to watching the replay.....
As they hit the far turn my pick, #8 was sitting the perfect trip just off the front-running price horse through the turn. I thought, I'm in perfect position to win once the rider lets her go in the lane. AND you'll note that she's my "BEST" of the day at Gulfstream with a "prime time bet" on her. As they approached the top of the lane, I noted that my filly - at 9/5 was pressing the leader, but the 2/1 second choice, #1 on the rail, was rallying sharply:
I thought to myself that my rider needed to hug the front-runner and keep her pinned on the rail so that the stretch-running threat, #1 could NOT get through! And to the furlong pole that's exactly what happened, I KNEW I was the winner. But then a seam opened and the #1 burst through and got to the front in the shadow of the wire. I said out loud (I had the volume off to be considerate of the other restaurant customers) "You've GOT to be kidding me!" I didn't remember who the #1 was, so I opened up the results.....whaaaattttt??????
So I re-looked at my analysis - scroll up, see it now? I'd mis-typed the number. I am sooooo lucky that we'd left. If we had still be at Tampa I would have walked up to the window and said, "Gulfstream, Race 13, $20 to WIN on #8" - but because I'd bet online where they have both the numbers AND the names, I'd simply bet on "Blue Bahia" not even paying attention to the numbers! So surprise, surprise, I cashed my last ticket for a big $60 to finish the day 9-for-21 (41%) and a profit of nearly $50 on the day! What a GREAT adventure it was!
Before heading back to join the others I made my next bet, on the second at Tampa. And despite the stakes-filled card, this maiden event for three-year-olds was my BET of the Day.....not only here, but of all the races at all the tracks! Two weeks ago when we were in Orlando visiting Brad, Lauren and little Oliver, I'd played Gulfstream's Saturday races, obviously. And that afternoon my BEST of the day was a maiden special for three-year-olds.....yes, a Todd Pletcher colt. But for what ever reason the first time starter had been an early scratch. When I looked at the entries for today's Tampa card I was thrilled that Ruler of the Nile, that same colt was entered today! Typically Pletcher sends a top maiden and/or experienced runners here on this day and this guy was no exception, I thought. First, he was a son of Pioneerofthe Nile, who was the sire of Triple Crown/Breeders' Cup Champion American Pharoah. Second, the connections had laid out a cool $1 MILLION to purchase this guy three years ago; and finally, it WAS Pletcher with John Velazquez. Only something unforeseen, in my opinion would prevent him winning here as an odds-on choice. After I made my bet and returned to our seats I discovered Anya and Jack had arrived. After exchanging greetings they asked who I liked here, and I gave them their programs and pointed out that this was my BEST of the day. Jack noted that Ruler of the Nile was odds-on and wouldn't pay much. But, as I explained, this kind of pick is not about making money, it's about being right and backing it with my own money. Shortly before they loaded into the gate the price floated up to 2/5 and I thought that was absolute highway robbery. But late money came in and he was back to 1/5 at post time. Johnny V. rated him patiently off the longshot leader and waited just long enough on the turn for some fans (and the announcer) to think that maybe, just maybe the local price play 3yo could upset him. But there would be none of that as Ruler of the Nile kicked into another gear and drew off stylishly.
The one victory in the string came in Gulfstream's seventh, a non-winner's of two lifetime going seven and a half furlongs on the grass. It was an interesting selection, to me at least, because this was not a typical angle for me. As I noted it's one thing when a horse suddenly reverses form and begins to rattle off wins, but when you can catch a TRAINER suddenly starting to win races, in bunches none the less, it's time to add that into the equation. Over the last week and change I've noticed the Bill Mott barn, who'd been pretty quiet at Gulfstream, suddenly posing in the winner's circle, and often with nice prices on the board. So here, Reflected Star was entered off of back-to-back strong efforts against better. AND the winners of those races had run big next time out. Third off the layoff today and top rider Luis Saez was on board. Reflected Star made his move into the lane and ran away as much the best. I wasn't surprised he won, but that he paid a generous $6.60 allowed me to cash out for nearly $35!
The seventh at Tampa was the first of the five stakes races, the Columbia Stakes for three-year-old fillies on the turf. Todd Pletcher had sent his very talented filly, Gidu to Tampa to run here. That, in and of itself would have caught my attention. BUT....on February 3rd, Holy Bull Day, one of the supporting stakes had been the Grade 3 Dania Beach for three-year-old fillies. I did NOT like the favorite that day (who had been a fast-closing second in the BC Juvenile Filly Turf at a big price previously) and thought that Gidu had an upset chance. This in spite of the fact that she'd just graduated in a FIVE FURLONG turf sprint and in the Dania Beach would be stretching out to a two turn mile. But she ran courageously and was JUST nipped at the wire (NOT by the favorite I might add). I thought today, second time long and dropping into a listed stakes, she'd prove much the best. My original plan was to make her a "prime time" investment, but when all the money showed I upped the bet. Unlike in the Dania Beach where she led gate to final head-bobbing finish, today she sat comfortably in a stalking position to the far turn. Much like Ruler of the Nile the roar of the crowd and the enthusiasm of the announcer led me to think that they thought there was an upset chance, but that was NOT happening.
As a side story, we had front row seats in the grandstand. But there is a walkway in front of the grandstand about waist high and box seats further down. So even though no one is sitting in front of you, when people along the walkway or in the box seats stand, you do not have a clear view of the track....especially if you are filming, like I was. So each time the field came for home I would stand to get a clear shot of the stretch run with my camera. Just as Gidu was clearing the sixteenth pole some jerk behind me starts jerking on my jacket and bobbles the finish of the race. I considered making something out of it, but I just didn't want to give them the satisfaction. AND I figured we'd be at the rail for the next, so I didn't....but still, talk about rude! Right after the race Anya remarked that we needed a group photo, and I announced that I had a race in Southern California that I was going to watch and then I wanted to watch the next Tampa race, the Challenger Stakes, from the rail. That, I explained would be a great time for all of us to meet there and take a photo. I won with the Bob Baffert first-time starter McKale (my fifth winner on the day) and headed to the rail. I secured a good spot right by the finish line. But with about ten minutes to post Jack found me and said they were all standing along the rail at the sixteenth pole. So I gave up my prime spot and joined them. I was looking around for someone to take our posed picture when Jack had us all turn and he took a "selfie." I thought it was THE best photo of the day......
The Challenger Stakes was for older horses and it was a mile and a sixteenth on the main track. Last year I'd won this race with Todd Pletcher's Sandford who set the track record for the race and the distance. Today when I looked over the field I was presented with a handicapping dilemma....there was another Todd Pletcher horse, You're To Blame, with John Velazquez. And he was coming off a decisive win at Gulfstream, but I didn't pick him. My choice was War Story who was trained by So Fla-based Jorge Navarro. While it was true that over the past FOURTEEN months War Story had only two wins, he'd also been third or fourth in five others AND had earned over $1.5 Million because he was racing against the elite of thoroughbred racing. He'd chased over that span.....Breeders' Cup & Pegasus Cup champion Arrogate twice, three other multiple graded stakes winners once each, and in his last five starts he'd been chasing Breeders' Cup/Pegasus Cup/Horse of the Year Gun Runner! As I remarked in my analysis, there were certainly no Gun Runners in this line-up! I also liked the fact that Irad Ortiz was riding because he'd only been on twenty-one horses for Navarro over the last two years but had won with TEN of them! The problem - from a handicapping stand-point - was the distance. War Story CLEARLY would prefer at the minimum a mile and an eighth if not longer. How would he adapt to the shorter distance, and more importantly the more likely quicker pace? No worries. He prompted the pace handily to the far turn, accelerated to the front and drew off by daylight as he sprinted right by us :) WHOOOO HOOOOO! My sixth win of the day, third at Tampa and second stakes win in a row!
I didn't have anything until the next race here at Tampa, the first of three straight graded stakes, the Grade 2 Hillsborough going nine furlongs on the grass. After looking over the field my first impression was that NO ONE could really have a lot of confidence in their selection here because easily as many as eight of the ten older fillies & mares in the 20th edition of this event could win and I wouldn't be surprised. I could make a case for several of them, and I admitted - in writing - that perhaps my deciding factor was over-thinking it, but here was my thoughts on picking Fourstar Crook. First, the distance was nine furlongs and most of these either had a single win or none at the distance, but 'Crook was 2-for-2. Second, she was from Chad Brown's barn and he's one of the top turf trainers in North America. Irad Ortiz was riding and he's been the hottest jockey at Gulfstream over the last month. I remarked, in writing, that IF Fourstar Crook "stole" this (oh clever Mr. Mark for his play on words!) fans would say afterwards, "How did I let a Chad Brown horse, with Irad Ortiz, who's 2-for-2 at the distance AND has won eight of her last ten starts beat me at a price!" - well, I knew I wouldn't be saying that. But the deciding factor was this.....most of the contenders were NEWLY TURNED four-year-olds who had built their resumes against strictly three-year-olds last year. But Fourstar Crook was NOT a newly turned four-year-old and had already raced against and beaten older. Finally, four of her last five speed figures would easily win this. I decided to not only play but double the bet. As they hit the far turn she was inside, and still in mid-pack as I turned on the camera. But as they passed the turf chute I could see she was in the clear and absolutely FLYING .... could she get there in time? P-H-O-T-O FINISH!
Oh, you betcha she got there! And paid a nice $9.80 so I'd cash for nearly $50! It was no sooner official than I headed back into the simulcast area to watch the co-feature from Oaklawn where my "BEST" of the day there was on Whitmore to win the Hot Springs Stakes. I'd seen him, and bet him, when we were at Oaklawn last spring and at the time he was thought to be the top sprinter in the country. But while he did win twice after the close of Oaklawn's meet, it was pretty clear that far and away his best races were in Arkansas. So to see him in the entries today I was already leaning that way. Then I noticed his most recent workout over the track....a best of 43 bullet work followed by a sizzling best of seventy-one bullet move. Whitmore tracked the multiple stakes winning front runner to the top of the lane, evened out and took dead-aim on him. Glided right on by and I thought he'd run away. But a deep closer was gobbling up ground quickly......too late, I've got the winner! He paid a generous (I thought) $4.80 and my ticket was worth nearly $75!
Missed the next two, and in the final live race, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby, my handicapping selection scratched. To be fair I did have a "fun bet" on the race - Todd Pletcher's colt, but he didn't fire, just ran evenly to be fourth. What WAS interesting was that the winner was an upset runner and that makes nearly every prep race for the Kentucky Derby now has been won by a big price horse. Figuring the "Run for the Roses" is NOT going to be easy! We said our good-byes and headed to the car. I had three races left that I'd bet early in the day through my xpressbet.com account, so when we reached the restaurant about an hour later I pulled up the replays to watch. The first two of the three did not produce winners, though it was a "good bet" when I took Amy's Challenge to stretch out off three consecutive sprint races in the mile and a sixteenth Grade 3 Honeybee at Oaklawn. Led all the way to deep stretch at a big 7/2 price and just failed to last, second. The final bet of the day was in the finale at Gulfstream, the co-featured Captiva Island Stakes sprinting five furlongs on the turf. Here was my analysis, which I pulled up prior to watching the replay.....
As they hit the far turn my pick, #8 was sitting the perfect trip just off the front-running price horse through the turn. I thought, I'm in perfect position to win once the rider lets her go in the lane. AND you'll note that she's my "BEST" of the day at Gulfstream with a "prime time bet" on her. As they approached the top of the lane, I noted that my filly - at 9/5 was pressing the leader, but the 2/1 second choice, #1 on the rail, was rallying sharply:
I thought to myself that my rider needed to hug the front-runner and keep her pinned on the rail so that the stretch-running threat, #1 could NOT get through! And to the furlong pole that's exactly what happened, I KNEW I was the winner. But then a seam opened and the #1 burst through and got to the front in the shadow of the wire. I said out loud (I had the volume off to be considerate of the other restaurant customers) "You've GOT to be kidding me!" I didn't remember who the #1 was, so I opened up the results.....whaaaattttt??????
Video Highlights & Photos From Tampa Bay Derby Day
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