December 30

Laurel's Chirstmastide Saturday Stakes Day

Gulfstream:  Tropical Park Oaks Day

For the races today I debated about playing either just Gulfstream's races or multiple tracks.  If the situation had been a routine Saturday I would have been at Gulfstream and I would have handicapped several different tracks.  But our daughter Julie was scheduled to be in late Friday night and we had tickets for the Florida Panthers game Saturday night, so I didn't want to be away from the family.  Play multi-tracks online you say.....well, yes I could, but again I didn't want to be "unsocial," but in the end I was swayed by the fact that Laurel was offering a multi-stakes program and I could earn 20x bonus points in my xpressbet account.  So I figured I'd play the races, just not sit in front of the computer UNLESS everyone seemed to be content during the day.  Well, I was happy that after spending the morning together and exchanging Christmas gifts everyone did seem quite content.  So I was able to interact with the family to some degree while tracking the races online.  And I have to say, the day could not have been much better - in total.  First, having Julie & Brendon here was great in and of itself; second, the gift exchange went very well as they were very happy and so were Kim and I.  I particularly was delighted with the sweater they gave me - see photo below.  The racing - it was a HIGHLY successful day; and to top things off we saw a great hockey game, AND WON!  Here's how the racing unfolded.......

The first race on my multi-race/multi-track selection sheet came from Gulfstream, the second which was a claiming event on the turf around two turns.  It looked to me like there was very little speed in the race and I thought jockey Jose Ortiz would place Sinatra close to the soft pace.  Sinatra regularly posted Beyer figures that the rest could only reach with career best efforts AND he'd had a four race winning streak snapped when he tried one of the rich $100K Claiming Crown stakes on Opening Day.  The drop into this $16K spot seemed ideal.  Surprisingly the crowd did NOT send him off as the favorite, and more surprisingly, Ortiz sat chilly near the back of the field through a pretty quick pace.  He asked for run approaching the far turn.  The favorite got caught in traffic while Ortiz swung Sinatra wide for a clear run.  By the time the favorite found a seam it was too little and way too late as I was home free.  The double invest netted me a snappy $30 and change!  Whooooo hoooooo!

I was second best in the third with a prime time play.  I wavered on (a) sticking with the selection and (b) changing the amount of the bet because everyone liked another - who was the favorite.  And what didn't set right for me was that the favorite had been cross-entered for a race on Sunday and scratched out to run today.  That one went wire to wire while I was clearly second best.  Next up was the first of the many stakes events in Maryland, The Heft for two-year-olds.  Granted these are lightly raced juveniles but it appeared it was a two-horse event with my pick, Diamond King, looking to run down A Different Style again, as they'd done when they met in the maiden ranks.  For some reason the crowd made 'Style the favorite and I was a healthy 6/5.  Instead of sitting off the pace 'King engaged the favorite immediately and they dueled to mid-way on the turn.  Diamond King edged clear but the pace duel had weakened him and the third choice came roaring up and as heads turned for home that one got in front.  But Diamond King would not go away.  He fought back, they were on even terms, dueled, and then in a remarkable performance - especially for a juvenile - he drew off late!  NICE!

Minutes later I was back at Gulfstream where I had a questionable pick.  Mr. Baker was a multiple stakes winner in 2014 locally, but after a try in Keeneland's Gr 3 Phoenix he'd had many issues.  He was gone TWO YEARS before returning in a second level allowance with two wins and a fourth in a stakes, then faded badly at the close of 2016.  He was third last February and off until December 8th when he was completely outrun.  So today he was plummeted to a bottom level $6.25K sprint.  He was either simply too good, or would not hit the board.  He was in hand pressing the lead, opened up and looked home free before shortening stride - but still good enough to hang on.  Only risked the minimum but picked up another win.

Back to Laurel where I had picks in back-to-back stakes.  In the Politely Stakes it seemed pretty clear to me that the one to beat was My Magician who'd already beaten SIX of these previously, soundly.  He was a dual stakes winner locally and was dropping out of a fourth in OPEN company.  But both online handicappers liked the new shooter to the field.  That one seemed home free into the long Laurel stretch as My Magician began rallying from the back.  But as heads turned home it was clear I had ALL the momentum, but could I get there in time......photo finish!  But I was pretty sure, I'd inhaled the entire field, including the favorite.  The best part was the price was a generous $7.60 and I cashed for nearly $40.  In the next event, the Jennings I was really confused.  Granted John Jones was parked wide in post eleven, but he had won this race last year as a prohibitive 1-2 favorite.  How could he be 6/1 in the program.  As the post parade began the selections for all six public handicappers appeared on the screen with their TOP FOUR picks.  Of the 24 horses listed, my pick, John Jones was picked third by one guy - not even in the top four contenders for all the others.  But the crowd was in agreement with me, making him a mild favorite.  As they hit the far turn jockey Edgar Prado asked John Jones to accelerate from mid-pack and he blew by the field and won going away.  The $5.60 payoff led to nearly $30 more dollars.  I'd now won five of my first six selections!  So glad I decided to play multiple tracks!

I had looked over the card for the Fair Grounds and had picks in four of them, but one scratched leaving three plays on the day from New Orleans.  The first pick was in the second race, a maiden event for two-year-olds and I liked Lougarou who had debuted at even money, got the lead, and was caught in a head bob.  As the DRF's Marcus Hersch said, it was as good as "standout" as you can get in a $12.5K maiden claimer.  He pressed the pace to the far turn and ran away as much, much the best.  Love that my girl Chantal Sutherland was in the irons for another win as she continues her winter campaign in New Orleans for the first time.  Make my start now SIX for seven!

Missed in two straight to return to reality before it was post time for one of the featured Gulfstream's events, the Tropical Park Oaks.  My only concern in supporting Chad Brown's Dream A While was that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was riding and that pair had already disappointed me on more than one occasion.  But the filly, she looked really good.  She'd won two of three in her native France, including a small stakes.  Her first North American start for Brown had resulted in a disappointing third, but (a) she was only 3/4 of a length behind the winner, and (b) had been closing into a glacial pace (:25-:50-1:14).  With any kind of pace she'd be the one to beat.  Velazquez swung her wide through the turn and she was picking off runners.  But when she neared the leaders shortly after straightening for the sprint to the wire she EXPLODED with a sudden acceleration that carried to her decisive win.  A double investment and a generous $7.40 payoff led to my collecting nearly $40 on my seventh win of the day.

As I was watching the early part of the Gulfstream Park live stream my interest was peaked when the handicappers mentioned Edgar Zayas was out of town.  I wondered if he was in Tampa to ride in their turf sprint stakes, so I flipped screens to see.  Sure enough, but the BEST news was WHO he was riding......on Gulfstream's Opening Day card my BET of the DAY had been on Pay Any Price in the Canterbury Stakes, a five furlong turf sprint.  He is an extremely quick front runner and holds the course record for the distance.  After he wired that field, and was just good enough to hold on off a long layoff his trainer had been interviewed and he remarked that they knew he was not quite 100% but thought he was good enough to win, and he did.  Now, here he was second off the bench and probably fitter.  The only concern for me - because I'd not looked at the past performances of the field - was that Tampa's course is not typically kind to front runners.  Still, he is one quick horse.  I made him my BET of the Day (my former best had scratched out of one of the Laurel stakes).  Right to the front and though the field was closing the gap in deep stretch there was never any danger.  I collected another $30 on my EIGHTH win of the day!

The rest of the day was somewhat anti-climatic for racing.  After my top choice in the Laurel races scratched I didn't have any more picks, and a good thing as racing was canceled following the seventh race (where I faded to 9th at 8/5).  One of my last two selections at the Fair Grounds was out, my pick in the Grade 1 American Oaks at Santa Anita scratched, and the top choice in the Gulfstream finale scratched.  I won the second at Santa Anita where two very promising colts squared off in a MSW - both I think will be heard from through the sprint.  I liked Richard Mandella's Peace with Mike Smith.  He rated off the pace and drove by the leaders to score as the 3/5 favorite.

Following the win by Peace and noting the scratches I did something I rarely do.  I looked at how I was doing for the day.  I saw that not only was I have a high win percentage day but I had scored a solid profit on the day.  I looked at my last two picks, both I'd originally intended to make "prime time" investments.  I didn't feel comfortable, and to be honest I think it had a lot to do with the fact that I'd had such a "lean" week of racing.  I didn't want to finish with a big win pct and a small profit so I cut them both back to double investments.  In the first, the Woodchopper at the Fair Grounds, Mr. Misunderstood won his eighth consecutive turf race to stay unbeaten on the green as the 3/2 favorite.  But in the Santa Anita race, the Grade 3 Midnight Lute I ran 3rd at 6/5.  So I made a profit on the two races and would have had I stuck with the original bets, but I didn't lose much profit since the winner was the favorite.  Check out my day's wagers - TEN for SEVENTEEN and a nice profit on the day of nearly $60!

Photos from our gift exchange and the hockey game ........

Checking out a WaWa in anticipation of one opening right around the corner

Tue Dec 26

Opening Day at Santa Anita

It was a special Tuesday racing card on this day after Christmas, I'm sure because sister track Santa Anita featured four graded stakes on their Opening Day Card.  I handicapped both cards and planned on betting races from both.  The Gulfstream card had a lot of difficult races to find a legitimate win candidate so I was "pleased" with myself to only bet three races where I thought I had a real chance to win.  In the opener I only wrote a single sentence without listing any runners as I couldn't find anyone worthy of mentioning.  I passed the second - my top choice won as the 3/2 favorite.  The third was a Maiden Claiming for 2yo fillies carrying a $50K price tag.  Typically I have never liked Todd Pletcher runners dropping in for a tag, but he's scored with a number of them already here.  So Mo Shopping was an obvious choice for me, especially with John Velazquez on board for owner Michael Repole.  I thought it was interesting Pletcher had debuted her over the Belmont turf last summer - where she showed nothing.  She'd been working steadily on the dirt locally and just seemed obvious.  She was bothered at the start and then was VERY wide through the run to the far turn.  Johnny V moved her up to challenge in third then asked for run nearing the quarter pole.  She forged to the front and then drew off through the lane as the easiest kind of winner.  ANOTHER win at Gulfstream - ANOTHER win for Pletcher/Velazquez.  WHOOO HOOOO.

My double investment returned nearly $20 to kick off the day.  The fourth race featured a pretty strong win angle for Pletcher - first start of a newly acquired runner.  You're To Blame was the 7/5 program favorite but his price floated up to 2/1 at post time in a short field of five.  As they turned for home the top three betting choices dueled the length of the stretch, exchanging the lead with each head bob.  In the end I was third beaten a nose and a head.  Great race though!

No bet in either the fifth or the sixth, but the seventh was my final selection at Gulfstream and my "BEST" of the day.  When I looked over the field for this entry level turf sprint it jumped off the page that the favorite was a REALLY legitimate play.  Sunnysammi towered over the field on speed figures - she routinely ran mid-to-upper 80 figs and the rest of the field struggled to get an occasional 70 number.  In addition those were earned in tough NYRA races.  Trainer Jason Servis was winning turf sprints - his forte - at a 34% clip.  She broke sharply from the wide post and pressed the pace into the far turn.  She glided to the front and was asked to kick on.  She briefly had to do battle with a 99/1 shot but kicked clear as easily best.

So for the day at Gulfstream I was a strong 2-for-3 with a photo finish third and had made more than $15.  Just continuing to have great luck in Hallandale this winter!  Just after the Sunnysami race my first pick at Santa Anita ran fifth.  I had opened my phone to check the post time for the first of the graded stakes, the Grade 2 San Antonio and saw that we were only fifteen minutes from post time.  I checked on the big-screen television and found the race being broadcast live on the TVG network, so I watched in HD.  EVERYONE was singling Collected for Bob Baffert who had been a big 2nd in the Breeders' Cup Classic.  If that wasn't enough he was a perfect 4-for-4 at Santa Anita and looked like he could be the lone speed if he wanted to.  But I agreed with the TVG analysts that with the widest draw jockey Mike Smith would probably sit just off the pace to the far turn before running away to an easy win.  The 1/5 favorite didn't break that sharply and quickly was dead last.  This cannot be good.  Sure enough, the one that DID get to the front went very slowly and easily and upset the field wire to wire while Collected finished a well beaten third.  As my "BEST" of the day I figured I had very little chance to have a winning day - either at Santa Anita or overall.  Sigh.....can't win them all.  Spent the rest of the afternoon playing with the little man and enjoying having Brad and Lauren around.  They left early in the evening and after watching one show on television I opened up the computer to watch the replays of the last four races at Santa Anita.  The sixth was the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers Mile for 3yo and up on the turf.  Clearly the most accomplished in the field was Big Score who in his last six had three wins and a close second with the only off-the-board finish in the BC Juvenile Turf.  All six of those had been in Gr 1 or 2 events.  My only concern was his penchant for running second and third.  Sure enough, he made a belated bid but was only good enough to pick up another graded stakes show purse.  In the seventh it was, for me at least, the most anticipated race of the day.  I've been a H-U-G-E fan of Unique Bella since her second start and no one was more disappointed when she faded badly as the favorite in the Gr 1 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint as my "Bet of the Weekend."  But I was willing to give her a pass (a) for it being the second start off nearly eight months on the bench, and (b) the upsets that ran wild all day long.  But today she was facing arguably the other top 3yo on the west coast, Paradise Woods.  In her two wins over this track she'd been sensational.  And she had been a good third in the BC Distaff.  My concern with her echoed those of DRF analyst Brad Free....all her best races came on easy leads going two turns.  Certainly Unique Bella was quicker and would have the jump on Paradise Woods as they turned for home.  But instead it was Paradise Woods who raced on the rail and up close while Unique Bella stalked near the back and on the outside.  But when jockey Mike Smith asked 'Bella to run on the turn I knew that today was one of her "A" races and no one, not even Paradise Woods would keep up with her.

While she was the 6/5 favorite, that was the "biggest" price you could have cashed on Unique Bella E-V-E-R as she'd only been even money twice and odds on all the other times.  I had tripled the bet and cashed for nearly $35.  The eighth race was the Grade 1 Malibu, the colt version of the La Brea.  I liked midwest shipper CZ Rocket for trainer Al Stall.  I can't remember the last time he sent a runner to So Cal.  The unbeaten runner was facing his stiffest competition yet, but he'd been working locally for several works, including a best-of-54 bullet move.  He stalked while wide through the far turn, then weakened to finish sixth. The last race of the day at Santa Anita, and the last race for me was an entry level allowance on the turf.  As I looked over the field a couple runners peaked my interest but nothing at first glance.  I looked at Brad Free's analysis.  For several years there were three public handicappers that if they made a horse their "BEST Bet" and I wasn't on board I typically would avoid the race; if I'd picked that horse, I upped the bet; and if I didn't have an opinion then this was the automatic play.  Two have since retired from handicapping but Free continues to offer his analysis in the Daily Racing Form.  Spanish Hombre - who was a luke-warm 5/2 program favorite - was his BET of the Day in this, the ninth race!  That was plenty good enough for me, so I doubled the bet.  Spanish Hombre stalked the leader in second to the far turn and I knew if he was only half as good as Free had indicated I had the winner.

He took off heading for home and drew off.  Best of all he'd been a generous 5/2 price so I cashed for a flat $35.  I was just delighted.  I went into xpressbet's files to get my wagering totals for the day and much to my surprise, not only did I finish the day an excellent 4-for-9 (44%), but in spite of losing the best-bet on Collected I finished with nearly $20 profit for the day!  Go me!  What a great way to start off the new week of racing!

Gulfstream Week 4

December 20 - 24

From the first day to the final race of the week, it was a very good week.  But certainly the highlight races were the two B-I-G bets when I was on track Friday for the first half of the card and then the final bet of the week on Christmas Eve when Todd Pletcher gave me a wonderful early Christmas present!

Wednesday December 20

The opener for the week was an interesting handicapping puzzle.  Adios Ed did not inspire confidence as a choice, especially one to invest on.  But one thing that is a certainty in handicapping, it's all about THIS race, on THIS day, with THESE match-ups.  And so while 'Ed wasn't a great runner or solid threat to win, his rivals were really poor choices.  *a debut runner for a 1-for-19 barn, *runner beaten 63+ in his last three, *the "most legitimate threat" with a rider that's 3-for-42 at the meet, *a 25-time maiden, *runner exiting a 15 length loss at this level, *5x maiden who's best efforts were on the turf.  Meanwhile top rider Luis Saez was on the choice and Saez was a 27% winner for this outfit.  Bumped and lost ground at the start, so when he rushed up wide into contention I figured he's just used all his energy for the stretch.  But down the lane he dueled briefly, edged clear and held them safely to the wire.  The first win of the week on the first race and bet of the week!

As I noted in my analysis, I'd completely get anyone who read my selection breakdown and said they were not on board for this one.  Classic Rock was certain to be a short price.....but he'd not been out since July AND in his two races prior to the break he was beaten a combined 42 lengths.  AND today he was facing older for the first time.  But prior to that, over THIS track he'd been very, very good.  And coming off the shelf he had the top rider, Saez, on board.  But really jumped off the page for me were his works.  On November 18th he blistered a best-of-94 bullet work; on December 2nd he sizzled in a best-of-42 move; and most recently he'd been best-of-30 for a five furlong work.  One of the first handicapping books I read was "How Will Your Horse Run Today" by handicapper William L. Scott (who led to me to MANY a winner with his other works as well).  In this book he expounded on the value of the five furlong work in a time of 1:00 or less as a solid indication of a sharp effort.  Classic Rock's last two works were in :58 and change.....let me tell you something my friends, that is SMOKIN'!  Classic Rock went right to the front and dueled into the stretch - now we'll find out how good he is after having all this pressure off the layoff.  Saez asked and he put that rival away and scored under a strong hand ride!  TWO-for-TWO on the day!

Missed on the last four, but was satisfied that (a) I'd hit on 33% of my picks and my "best" (Classic Rock) had won.

Thursday December 21

I started off Thursday's racing action by running 2nd at 8/5 - never a threat.  The third was the first "good story" of the week.  One of the things you have to like about thoroughbred racing, if you're a real fan, is this......"THE rule of handicapping is there are NO RULES!"  One of the most unlikely of winners is to back last out maiden winners in their first start against winners.  This is especially true with young maidens who earn big numbers with impressive figures....they rarely run back to those numbers.  But for me, Santiamen had run so professionally, blowing by from mid-pack AND was facing a field of runners much like himself that I was willing to invest for the minimum amount.  But as the betting opened for the fourth he was hammered in the win pool and all the multi-race wagers.  AND he was the top choice by all three of the Gulfstream handicappers, as well as in the DRF.  With about five minutes to post I made the bet and tripled the initial investment.  He had to work harder than the paltry 1/5 odds would have suggested but he won, and after all, a win is a win, is a win!

My pick in the fifth scratched out so my next selection to wager on was in the sixth.  And how ironic, it was a nearly identical situation as to my winning pick in the third - a last out maiden.  Souper Catch had not won at first asking, in fact after a few races he went to the shelf for A YEAR.  Came back with a sharp race and then a decisive victory at 6 1/2 furlongs.  Today he stretched out to a one-turn mile for trainer Mark Casse and jockey John Velazquez.  He was well bet, all the way down to even money before the gates sprung open.  Then he pressed the pace four wide into the turn.  Was given his cue and accelerated to challenge, then drew off with much authority, nearly ten lengths under the wire while giving jockey John Velazquez his 200th win of this season!

The last play of the day came in the 9th and it was the "Upset Special."  Boyd Crowder was 15/1 in the program.  Looked worth a flyer and he came with a big late run, but could only finish a close fourth at 10/1.  Still, it was a 2-for-5 (40%) day and I can't complain about that!

I also had selections at the Fair Grounds today.  Unfortunately they all lost.....sigh, another day in New Orleans where I wonder how much longer I'm going to do the daily picks.  Seems like I'm just giving away my winnings from Gulfstream.

Friday December 22

So, on Friday I decided I would head out for some live racing action.  As I drove out I reminded myself that it was beautiful winter afternoons like this that I used to gaze out my classroom window and say, "If I were retired, I'd be at Gulfstream today!"

I originally had eight selections on the card and it reminded me in a way of last Wednesday's action when I came out and stayed for the entire day.  But when I finished handicapping and had a day to reflect on it I told Kim I thought I'd only be out there for the first half of the card.  This evening our youngest son Brad and his wife Lauren, along with our youngest grandson Oliver, would be arriving for the Christmas holiday.  And while they would not be coming until probably at least 10:30 pm there were still a few things to do to prepare for their arrival.  And from a racing point of view I really felt my best chances at winning were early in the card.  My original selection sheet called for a triple investment on both the first and fourth of the day, but even as I wrote that I thought there was a chance that they MIGHT be worth a bigger investment.  The opener reminded me in many ways of the Wednesday opener.  Mr. Papillon was the pick, and he deserved the bet.  Dropping out of a good third for $35K he was in for a mere $20K today.  In addition in his previous starts he'd tried to finish into glacial paces - :50 and change half mile in three of them - and the other was a stakes event, an obvious toss.  But the glaring stat was that the third and fourth choices in the program were a combined 0-for-29 in their career and the one legitimate threat, the second choice, had an 0-for jockey riding for an 0-for barn.  I just didn't think they matched up with Mr. Papillon, or with jockey Tyler Gafflione - a 38% winner for the barn.  Gafflione broke sharply and stalked the leader through moderate fractions into the turn, then asked for run and ran away as easily best.  And when I'd gone to the windows I made the bet a "prime time" play so I cashed for nearly $40 to start the day!

Missed on the next two when I went with price plays with a chance.  Then came the fourth, which was my "BEST" bet of the day.  And again, what a great story.  I have said countless times through the first four weeks of the Gulfstream Championship Meet that, ".....you are either ALL in on Todd Pletcher, or you always try to beat him....." but like yesterday here's an example of "there are no rules in handicapping."  Now I'll be the first to tell you that it's rare that I'll BET against Todd Pletcher - I might NOT bet because I'm not sure he'll win, but bet against him?  Rarely.  Much less make the bet against Pletcher a "best bet."  So, like the opener I'd originally written to play a triple investment, thinking I just might up the ante.  So after going "prime time" on the opener I considered what to do here because I liked Chad Brown's Wage Acceleration more than I'd liked Mr. Papillon.  Still, there was the Pletcher factor.  AND 'Wage appeared to be one of those horses who "should" win each time out and had not.  Would he settle for another slice today without a win?  I was thinking of going more in before I left for the races and so I wanted to check what the three Gulfstream analysts thought.  Ron Nicoletti made him his "BET of the Day;" Jason Blewitt made him his "SINGLE" on his early Pick-5 ticket; and hottie Acacia Courtney made him HER BEST BET.  DRF analyst Mike Welsch also made him his top choice.  EVERYONE can't be wrong I figured.  So I went "ALL IN!  As they hit the far turn Pletcher's colt was in front at a big 8/1 price - oh no.  But I could tell jockey Tyler Gafflione had a lot of horse and a lot of confidence.  He let Wage Acceleration go and he blew by on the rail.  Soon after entering the stretch he was engaged by the 3/1 second choice and a stretch duel was on.  Gafflione kept his narrow lead but inside the final furlong the lone filly in the field came flying on the outside.......officially a photo finish, but I knew I'd won!

The $3.20 payoff with my big $50 bet resulted in a pay out of $80 and I was a certain winner at Gulfstream for the day.  My pick in the fifth scratched and in the sixth I'd passed so I headed for home.  Didn't cash on any of the last three here or the two picks at the Fair Grounds.  But still, felt good about the day with the two BIG BET WINS!

Friday's BIG WINS

Saturday December 23

The kids and our most adorable grandson arrived late last night - poor Oliver was NOT happy.....over tired from being in the car, in a strange dark house.  Took him quite a while to settle down, but finally he did.  But this morning he was a happy camper to see his Grandma & Grandpa and explore all the new things at their house.

As we watched football I was following my selections on my phone via the Xpressbet app.  Missed on my first play but then I won back-to-back races at Gulfstream.  What made them noteworthy was that I know the kinds of races I get the best win results and the ones which are difficult for me.  And turf sprints are the hardest for me to consistently win at.  But BOTH of these came in turf sprints.  The first was in the third, a maiden special for two-year-olds.  The first big angle was that Gidu was trained by Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez on board.  The second angle was that he'd debuted at Saratoga and dueled through sizzling fractions before being caught, and he was second behind a runner who came back to win a $350K stakes at Kentucky Downs, then ran in the Breeders' Cup.  I doubled the bet.  Right out of the gate he pressed the pace before taking over into the stretch without being asked.  Ran away as tons the best.

In the fifth it looked like a perfect storm of factors.  Sir Navigator had closed strongly to be third in the $100K Claiming Crown Canterbury behind Pay Any Price - who was my BET of the Day and the course record holder at the distance on the turf.  Now he was in starter optional claimer that had a lot of early pace to set him up.  Sure enough, he came rolling at the top of the lane and edged clear to score for my second win of the day.

Missed on three in a row, two of them even money at post time.  The feature race on the Gulfstream card was the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector.  The question was simply this, would X Y Jet, the 2015 winner of this race and had been away for more than a year, would he run his race?  Trainer Jorge Navarro was a huge 42% with long layoff runners like this and X Y Jet had been working sharply.  He looked to be on the lead and if even just running a "B+" race he'd win.  He was off a beat slow but quickly recovered and was easily on the lead.  He had a clear length lead into the stretch and while the fractions were sharp (:22.1 and :44.4) it was well within his range.  He kept on going and while it was close on the wire I never really was worried.  I'd tripled the bet and scored for the third time at Gulfstream.

I won two races from my first four picks at the Fair Grounds - had to be happy with that.  In their 9th and featured event - a second level allowance sprint - I thought Behavioral Bias was easily best and made him my BET of the DAY.  He'd earned back-to-back Beyer figures that would take a lifetime best to top by any of his rivals.  But really caught my eye was his huge best-of-221 bullet work.  Yes, you heard that right, two-hundred-and-twenty-one!  He was also the best of the day of day for DRF's Marcus Hersch.  Behavioral Bias tracked the leader in third to the top of the stretch before moving to the outside to engage the leader.  At the furlong pole he was let loose and he ran away as tons the best.

Cashed for nearly $35 to close out an excellent six-for-twelve day at the races.  The race went official just in time for Brad and I to hop in the car and head to the Florida Panthers game.  It was a great game and I so much enjoyed being at the game with my son.  We won - for our third in a row - and the Panthers Roar Corps came to our section to toss T-shirts and Brad caught one!

Sunday December 24

Again, a G-R-E-A-T racing story.....and again, like so many of the stories this week, it's one of those stories that's great because of it's unusuality.  First, the "big day" of the week is almost always on Saturday and often - when I'm handicapping on a daily basis - Sunday doesn't live up to the excitement and/or results of Saturday.  And secondly when I'm playing on a day-to-day basis, the "BIG" days at the track where I make a nice return often come on Saturday, largely because I have so many selections.  On this weekend I had a very good day Saturday with six wins from twelve selections, but as I remarked to Brad, it was one of those days where I traded money and came out about ten dollars ahead.  I, obviously, have had my "BIG" days already over the past two weeks.  And with only four picks today, what could I reasonably expect?  I passed the opener - and side story, on such a HUGE percentage of races where I pass but have a "top choice," the pick did not win.  In the second, it was a non-winners of three lifetime going a one-turn mile.  I liked Flying Rocket who was the only runner with multiple wins at this configuration....had a 31% rider for the barn; and a sharp bullet work.  Was also DRF's Mike Welsch's best.  Right to the front and never looked back.  

Considering how "obvious" Flying Rocket had appeared to me, the fact he played $4.20 (and I cashed for over $20) seemed a generous early Christmas present - note the "Christmas-themed" ticket :)  I'm so clever.  Passed the third - my pick was third and in the fourth there were two Todd Pletcher colts coming off the layoff.  I didn't care for the inside Pletcher colt, Theory, who'd been a Gr 3 winner at 2yo.  Didn't like that John Velazquez was not aboard.  Plus the other Pletcher colt, Egyptian Hero had a similar layoff line and I'd had him on both occasions that he scored last winter.  BUT those had come over the Tampa Bay Downs main track and this would be his first run locally.  As I watched on my phone I was very surprised that Theory, who was the 5/2 program favorite was an ice-cold 6/1 on the board while Egyptian Hero, 7/2 in the program, was being hammered down to even money.  The later money evened itself out and Theory was the tepid 5/2 choice at post time, but he was a well beaten, non-threatening 6th when never in the race.  My pick, 'Hero went off at 3/1 and after tracking the leaders through the first half mile stopped like he was shot finishing dead last, beaten over 30 lengths.  BOTH uncharacteristic efforts by the main man's runners.  The fifth was a maiden special for juveniles sprinting over the turf.  Like I mentioned on yesterday's card, these super-sprints on the grass are difficult for me.  But in here I liked Speed Star.  The reason was that his trainer was Saffie Joseph who had only two wins at the meet but BOTH of them had been with my money and both with top rider Luis Saez.  He doesn't ride often for this outfit but when he does he wins at a 40% clip.  In his most recent Speed Star had run in a spot nearly identical to this at GPW.  He was a sharp second, but I noted it was off a long layoff and it was his first try on the turf....so he had every right to improve today.  And with the connections, I liked his chances.  He burst out of the gate and was immediately clear by daylight.  None of the rest of the runners every made a serious move and he coasted home as my second winner on the day.  

He too was the favorite, but the $5.20 payoff not only led to a return of nearly $30, but regardless of what happened on the final pick of the day I was a winner for the day - four selections, two wins....bet $40, and I'd cashed for $47 for a profitable day.  I had to be happy with my Sunday at the races!  I had passed the next two (my top choices ran third and fourth), and my final pick of the day was in the eighth, an entry level allowance on the turf.  Like I've reiterated M-A-N-Y times, at Gulfstream over the Championship Meet you're either "ALL in" on Todd Pletcher or you're always trying to beat him at a price.  This was a turf route, and these often produced surprise results so even if he doesn't with with as many of these you are often rewarded.  He sent out Psalmody today and if you looked down his past performances he'd run well over this course last winter with a win and a second.  At 7/2 in the program he was well worth the investment.  I had not been keeping the live feed running, especially as I'd passed the previous two.  So when I went to watch this race I noted that on xpressbet it said "Gulfstream Race 8 OFF" - which meant they were already running.  They had left the gate and were entering the first turn as the video came on.  There was the bright yellow cap of my jockey pressing the leader out of the turn onto the backstretch and they had a daylight lead on the field.  Then the odds came up.  WHAT!!!!!!!  The crowd had let Psalmody go off at an astronomical 9/1.  Either they are way off on their handicapping or I am.  I'll take my chances, I thought because jockey Tyler Gafflione seemed to be riding very confidently.  And the leader was 16/1, so the chances were he wasn't going to last.  The two betting favorites were well back in the field and it didn't seem to me like they were going too fast.  There would have to be a complete collapse for my horse not to spring the upset.  Oh my, my heart started racing.  On the far turn Gafflione made his move, as he came to the long-time longshot leader.  They dueled to the furlong pole and he put his head in front.  The closers were coming as the front runner faded.  But the wire came up before they could get to me and I had the big upset in the bag!  What an early Christmas present to me!

That's right my friends, the $20.40 payoff with my double investment meant I'd cash for over $100 on the last selection of the day.  So for today, on a Sunday card with only four selections I'd won with 75% of my picks and had a profit of well over $100.  WHAT A WAY to end the week!  Merry Christmas to me!  Click HERE to see the photos of our Christmas with Brad and his family!

Gulfstream Week Three

December 13 - 17

When I wrote up last week's sensational results I KNEW that this week would find me writing about how my winning percentage had declined.  Over the span of 20,000 plus races I always win at about a 35% clip.....over a season, a month, or a week.  It's good to know because there are times when I go through a period of low win percentages and I know to hang in there because my numbers WILL rebound.  Conversely, a big win percentage is typically followed by a decline to "balance out" the numbers.  Well, I was half right....I did win "less" as I "only" hit 41% of my picks and "only" had a profit of nearly $150.  WOW, what a week again, especially in light of last week's great success!  At the Fair Grounds I only had three selections on the day.  I was a close second with the first in a turf sprint, clear second with my second in a one mile turf event, and then second AGAIN with another turf sprinter.  Sigh...... but I still made a profit for the day!

Wednesday December 13

Today was one of "those days" that you keep coming back to the races for.  It was such an AMAZING Day that it deserved it's own full journal page.  Click HERE to see it.

Wednesday December 13 Highlights

Thursday December 14

I tried to be conservative again today, but in the eighth I found a "lock" pick and it was the highlight of the day.  At Gulfstream I missed on the first two picks but in the sixth of the day I remarked in my analysis that it's unusual that on a weekday card, in a nondescript non-winners of three lifetime claiming event for a cheap $6,250 tag you could find a strong win candidate like Flying Girl.  The first thirteen races of her career were on the turf and produced a single win.  She romped by nine widening lengths when dropped into a 2-lifetime one-turn mile on the main track.  She went two turns vs. higher tagged rivals at GPW and was good, including a just-miss 2nd by a nose while daylight clear of the show filly.  Those facts in and of themselves made her a strong choice, but that her "strongest rival" had never been beyond seven furlongs and that one had an 0-for-23 rider....well, Flying Girl looked awfully strong.

Cashed for over $25 on my triple investment!  My final Gulfstream play was the aforementioned BET of the Day in the eighth.  This was a one mile turf event for entry level runners.  Warranty was inconsistent through her first six, but beat $75K maidens at Saratoga on closing weekend.  Counting that event, her last five saw her win three, finish 3rd, and clip heels.  Those facts make her a strong favorite, but her last two Beyers of 79 and 76 beat all LIFETIME numbers for her rivals.  I was hopeful that maybe, just maybe we'd get 3/5 at post time.  As they turned for home she was in high gear, but the leader was not backing up.  Still Warranty surged and the rider never went to the whip as she caught the leader in the shadow of the wire then edged clear.

And the price was a delicious 4/5 meaning my BET of the DAY investment would return nearly $60!

Friday December 15

A three-win day at Gulfstream kept the week rolling!  At the Fair Grounds I had hottie Chantal Sutherland on Red Hot Cherry who opened up turning for home and was clear at the 16th pole, but was nailed on the wire.  Then I had top jockey Florent Geroux on Tip Tap Tapizar at 2/1 - same price 'Cherry was - and he couldn't not get by the leader, 2nd again.  But I did pick up wins in the final two New Orleans plays.  Good Play was 4/1 in the program for Brad Cox who always spots his horses in a winning spot - this maiden claimer for 2yo looked right.  Bet down to 4/5 he won and I cashed for a little under $10.  And in the finale - a non-winners of three lifetime for state-breds for a mere nickel - I liked Outback Jack who had beaten state-bred MSW last winter and was dropping out of OPEN $20K "beaten" company.  He too was easily best and at a big $6.20 allowing me to collect over $15 on the minimum play.

At Gulfstream the day started off delightfully in the second race, a maiden claimer for 2yo sprinting the demanding seven furlong distance.  In the past, while "ALL IN" on Todd Pletcher, I was reluctant to bet on - or against - Pletcher runners who'd failed in a GPW start before the Championship Meet, but he's already won with those kind this winter, so I liked Caloric today.  He was cold on the board at 9/2 in a MSW and didn't fire.  Dropped in for a $25K tag and got top rider Luis Saez today, which told me he was "LIVE" for the win and the connections were ok with letting someone else take him to run him as a blue collar claimer.

I tripled the bet as the Pletcher barn continues on fire!  The $5.40 payoff led to nearly $30 in winnings!  I ran third with back-to-back GP plays....one at 6/1 the other at 4/5 :(  before we arrived at the seventh race.  This was a maiden special for two-year-olds and it was a good analysis that was rewarded.  Song of Melody had finished about two lengths off of recent winner Crown of Joy despite being parked in post ten of eleven.  The runner-up from that race had not run well in his subsequent start, so I thought he'd be unlikely to run as well as Song of Melody who figured to improve with top rider Luis Saez on board.  And the favorite looked vulnerable to me - not only had she lost as the favorite in her debut but she'd also been FIVE back of the same Crown of Joy.  Song of Melody pressed the leaders through the turn, got a narrow advantage turning for home and opened up while the favorite hung at even money, finishing fourth, and the runner who'd finished 2nd in front of 'Melody closed belatedly without threatening the winner to be third at 5/2.

No short price for me as Song of Melody paid a big $11.80.....oh to have at least doubled the bet!  But I did collect nearly $25 on the minimum play.  But the "Best" of the day was in the featured 9th, an entry level allowance going seven furlongs.  The first key is that this IS Gulfstream, and Spice Lady IS trained by Todd Pletcher and DOES have John Velazquez on board.  The only dilemma appeared to be that another in the field had top rider Luis Saez and that one was also trained by Pletcher.  But Johnny V has been on fire for the top conditioner and Spice Lady exhibited several common Pletcher win indicators:  (1) she ran well here last winter; (2) she was coming off a long layoff, and like Wednesday when they posted it on the jumbo screen, Pletcher is well over 40% with his long returnees over the GP dirt; (3) she runs in the colors of Michael Repole and the only thing better than a Pletcher-Velazquez combo is when they are together for top NY owner Repole.  (4) When Spice Lady stretched out to a mile off her GP maiden win she was fourth behind a filly named Fabulous Florida who went on to run in the Gr 3 Eight Belles on Ky Derby Day and the Gr 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day.  Right to the front and was clear....the farther they went the bigger the margin, my THIRD winner at GP!

Cashed for nearly $30 on this one!  I had one more bet, in the finale on Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown on the turf in a MSW on the turf.  She pressed the leaders, dueled between runners in the stretch, got a nose in front of the leader but was nailed on the wire oh so close.....

Battle of Blenheim - Green Cap (inside)

But for the day.....

Cannot argue with that my friends!

Saturday December 16

I went to the races today but only stayed through about half the card.  You KNOW there had to be very unusual circumstances for me to leave the races early....well there was, and it was WELL worth it.  When we were on our Viking River Cruises "Imperial Jewels of China" adventure we became close friends with two couples - Ron & Nancy, who live in Orlando and we've seen a couple of times since our return, and their long-time friends Dave & Leslie.  Today the latter two were flying into So Fla and meeting the others for a Caribbean cruise that begins tomorrow.  So we agreed that they would all come over for dinner and cards this evening.  Here we are inside the Forbidden City in Beijing.....

The plan called for them to probably arrive at our house around 4 pm so I decided to head out to Gulfstream for the first half of the day.  There were FIVE, count them, five Grade 3 stakes on the Gulfstream card and at the Fair Grounds it was Super Santa Saturday with seven listed events.  I only hit for just under 30% for the day because of only a single win in New Orleans - nearly all their stakes were won by longshots that just didn't figure .... shades of the Breeders' Cup.  But I had much better success at Gulfstream.  I had a pick in the first, but nothing in the second so I got out there for the opener only to have my runner scratch late.  So when I finally got to play it was in the third, a claiming event on the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs.  Little Baltar had "darkened form" as his last two did not look good on paper.  But if you looked down the past performances you'd note that he'd run very well here last winter and that was against allowance types.  When dropped in class into a $35K "beaten" event he rallied to be up in time.  He had recently been claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph, and that angle had produced a $9.80 winner for me Wednesday.  I was afraid of the price being lowered because the DRF's Mike Welsch made this one his "BEST" of the day despite the multiple stakes fields later.  As the field turned for home he had a full head of steam it was just a question of if he'd run out of time, but he was up and by the leaders late for the win.

And the best part was the very generous $6.80 payoff, leading to nearly $35 in cash for me!  In the first stakes event, the Grade 3 Rampart I was against the likely favorite Curlin's Approval who've I've always thought was overrated despite her multiple graded wins.  The question for me was to stick with the decided underdog, Nonna Mela who was certain to be 5/1 or better, who was sent out by the white-hot Pletcher barn, or the long layoff returnee, Lewis Bay.  She was trained by Chad Brown and I thought the layoff would probably NOT be an issue.  In the end I could not have looked myself in the mirror if Pletcher won again at a price without me.  But I was concerned that John Velazquez was on another runner and not Pletcher's.  Third, Lewis Bay won and Curlin's Approval disappointed.  At least my thinking was right.  The sixth was my BET of the DAY!  It was a MSW for two-year-olds and yes, there was a Pletcher runner, with Velazquez up.  Duh.  Liked that in her debut she'd second best behind a runaway winner.  Welsch commented in his analysis that Navistar had been working very sharply lately including matching strides with another Pletcher runner, Fillet of Sole who returned to win for me Wednesday at a big $10.40.  Navistar was no secret and sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite.  But she was an easy winner.  Rated kindly for a quarter mile then JR let her go and with each stride drew further and further away from the field.  MUCH the best!

I had wagered a big $30 investment and would collect nearly $45 in return.  Next up was the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl and I had questions about Dearest who was the 6/5 program favorite.  She would either have to try to wire the field from the rail or try to work out a trip.  She had a huge speed figure advantage as her last two were better than 92 of the 93 lifetime figures of her rivals.  BUT she'd not been out since July and there was the race flow.  I bet, but not a lot.  Led into the stretch then faded to fourth.  Now it was nearly 3:30 and so I headed home.  Got there in plenty of time before the two couples arrived and we had a great evening together.  After they all left I watched the replays and I had another big win.  In the 8th, the Grade 3 My Charmer going a mile on the turf, On Leave was the 7/5 program favorite and looked every bit of the part.  In her last eleven races she had SIX WINS!  WOW.  Her losses were to Gr 1 winner Cambodia, Gr 1 winner Time and Motion, and multiple Gr 1 winner and Eclipse Award champion Lady Eli.  The other two were a wide trip, photo finish fifth and last time out she was way, WAY too far back early.  Today she rallied strongly, accelerated in mid-stretch and while the finish was close you could tell NY rider Irad Ortiz - in for the big stakes races - never was worried as he confidently hand rode her to the wire.

The bet had been a prime-time play and the return was nearly $40!

Sunday December 17

I closed out the week with two wins at Gulfstream and a perfect 1-for-1 day at the Fair Grounds (after all my other picks scratched).  At the Fair Grounds they had rain, again.  So all of my turf selections (four) were scratched.  That left me with a single play, on Private Party in a non-winners of three lifetime going a two-turn mile.  The ONLY time he was in a restricted event he romped in a $10K 2L at Churchill Downs.  Since he had run in "beaten" company for $16K and now he drops into this restricted 3L spot AND for a mere $5K.  The entry was favored and was sent off at 4/5 odds but they were no match for my choice as Private Party scored at a nice $6.40 leading to a $30+ payoff.  The opener at Gulfstream was a five furlong turf sprint for entry level two-year-olds.  Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez teamed up and that was good enough for me.  Sent away as the 3/2 favorite JR tracked the 21/1 longshot who spurted to the front.  But as they hit the turn that one was running comfortably without being asked and Johnny was having to push hard for El Duce to keep up.  The longshot never stopped and scored a $44.20 upset while El Duce finished third.  Passed the second but in the third I was back on board in a MSW for 2yo runners going a one-turn mile. Nope, no Todd Pletcher in here, but I thought that Barrier Island was as solid as any Pletcher maiden.  This filly had been a sharp second in her Saratoga debut for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and then was third in an Aqueduct sprint.  She'd have to keep up with the program favorite, Mockery.  But I didn't like that the speed figures for that one had been declining and the last two times she went farther than six furlongs she faded.  Just and I mean J-U-S-T as it had looked on paper.....Mockery set the pace and looked like she was long gone until they turned for home.  Local rider Tyler Gafflione was rallying very strongly from off the pace on Barrier Island as Mockery shortened stride.  All the momentum and right on by!

And at a nice 2/1 price meant my second winning ticket would again be worth more than $30!  I missed with a 2/1 favorite in the 7th but in the eighth I got my final win of the day and the week.  This was a maiden special for 3yo going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf.  Mixed feelings for me - the fact that these sophomores STILL did not have a win was worrisome.  And my pick, Blind Pool, had never been on the turf as of today.  But the conditioner was Chad Brown with jockey Javier Castellano.  If anyone can get one ready for the grass it's Brown.  She looked to have enough speed to wire the field, but also could sit patiently off a longshot leader.  That's what Castellano chose to do.  When they hit the top of the lane he asked and Blind Pool drew off like a champion.  Oh I wish I'd been willing to go at least double investment because the payoff was a generous $10.  Still, rewarded with $25 for my third win of the day from just six selections.....another great day.

And it was another big week of handicapping (see photo at the top!).  With three weeks in the books and already looking to the Florida Derby I sent out emails to all my pals who've been along for the Derby experience over the past and so I looked up how I've done through the first twelve days, three weeks......

Usually it's difficult to win at Gulfstream, especially early.  And I find over the years that my win statistics improve as the meet goes on, so I know that I need to be patient early in the meet.  But obviously, not so much this year.

Gulfstream Week Three Highlights