Gulfstream Week 4

December 20 - 24

From the first day to the final race of the week, it was a very good week.  But certainly the highlight races were the two B-I-G bets when I was on track Friday for the first half of the card and then the final bet of the week on Christmas Eve when Todd Pletcher gave me a wonderful early Christmas present!

Wednesday December 20

The opener for the week was an interesting handicapping puzzle.  Adios Ed did not inspire confidence as a choice, especially one to invest on.  But one thing that is a certainty in handicapping, it's all about THIS race, on THIS day, with THESE match-ups.  And so while 'Ed wasn't a great runner or solid threat to win, his rivals were really poor choices.  *a debut runner for a 1-for-19 barn, *runner beaten 63+ in his last three, *the "most legitimate threat" with a rider that's 3-for-42 at the meet, *a 25-time maiden, *runner exiting a 15 length loss at this level, *5x maiden who's best efforts were on the turf.  Meanwhile top rider Luis Saez was on the choice and Saez was a 27% winner for this outfit.  Bumped and lost ground at the start, so when he rushed up wide into contention I figured he's just used all his energy for the stretch.  But down the lane he dueled briefly, edged clear and held them safely to the wire.  The first win of the week on the first race and bet of the week!

As I noted in my analysis, I'd completely get anyone who read my selection breakdown and said they were not on board for this one.  Classic Rock was certain to be a short price.....but he'd not been out since July AND in his two races prior to the break he was beaten a combined 42 lengths.  AND today he was facing older for the first time.  But prior to that, over THIS track he'd been very, very good.  And coming off the shelf he had the top rider, Saez, on board.  But really jumped off the page for me were his works.  On November 18th he blistered a best-of-94 bullet work; on December 2nd he sizzled in a best-of-42 move; and most recently he'd been best-of-30 for a five furlong work.  One of the first handicapping books I read was "How Will Your Horse Run Today" by handicapper William L. Scott (who led to me to MANY a winner with his other works as well).  In this book he expounded on the value of the five furlong work in a time of 1:00 or less as a solid indication of a sharp effort.  Classic Rock's last two works were in :58 and change.....let me tell you something my friends, that is SMOKIN'!  Classic Rock went right to the front and dueled into the stretch - now we'll find out how good he is after having all this pressure off the layoff.  Saez asked and he put that rival away and scored under a strong hand ride!  TWO-for-TWO on the day!

Missed on the last four, but was satisfied that (a) I'd hit on 33% of my picks and my "best" (Classic Rock) had won.

Thursday December 21

I started off Thursday's racing action by running 2nd at 8/5 - never a threat.  The third was the first "good story" of the week.  One of the things you have to like about thoroughbred racing, if you're a real fan, is this......"THE rule of handicapping is there are NO RULES!"  One of the most unlikely of winners is to back last out maiden winners in their first start against winners.  This is especially true with young maidens who earn big numbers with impressive figures....they rarely run back to those numbers.  But for me, Santiamen had run so professionally, blowing by from mid-pack AND was facing a field of runners much like himself that I was willing to invest for the minimum amount.  But as the betting opened for the fourth he was hammered in the win pool and all the multi-race wagers.  AND he was the top choice by all three of the Gulfstream handicappers, as well as in the DRF.  With about five minutes to post I made the bet and tripled the initial investment.  He had to work harder than the paltry 1/5 odds would have suggested but he won, and after all, a win is a win, is a win!

My pick in the fifth scratched out so my next selection to wager on was in the sixth.  And how ironic, it was a nearly identical situation as to my winning pick in the third - a last out maiden.  Souper Catch had not won at first asking, in fact after a few races he went to the shelf for A YEAR.  Came back with a sharp race and then a decisive victory at 6 1/2 furlongs.  Today he stretched out to a one-turn mile for trainer Mark Casse and jockey John Velazquez.  He was well bet, all the way down to even money before the gates sprung open.  Then he pressed the pace four wide into the turn.  Was given his cue and accelerated to challenge, then drew off with much authority, nearly ten lengths under the wire while giving jockey John Velazquez his 200th win of this season!

The last play of the day came in the 9th and it was the "Upset Special."  Boyd Crowder was 15/1 in the program.  Looked worth a flyer and he came with a big late run, but could only finish a close fourth at 10/1.  Still, it was a 2-for-5 (40%) day and I can't complain about that!

I also had selections at the Fair Grounds today.  Unfortunately they all lost.....sigh, another day in New Orleans where I wonder how much longer I'm going to do the daily picks.  Seems like I'm just giving away my winnings from Gulfstream.

Friday December 22

So, on Friday I decided I would head out for some live racing action.  As I drove out I reminded myself that it was beautiful winter afternoons like this that I used to gaze out my classroom window and say, "If I were retired, I'd be at Gulfstream today!"

I originally had eight selections on the card and it reminded me in a way of last Wednesday's action when I came out and stayed for the entire day.  But when I finished handicapping and had a day to reflect on it I told Kim I thought I'd only be out there for the first half of the card.  This evening our youngest son Brad and his wife Lauren, along with our youngest grandson Oliver, would be arriving for the Christmas holiday.  And while they would not be coming until probably at least 10:30 pm there were still a few things to do to prepare for their arrival.  And from a racing point of view I really felt my best chances at winning were early in the card.  My original selection sheet called for a triple investment on both the first and fourth of the day, but even as I wrote that I thought there was a chance that they MIGHT be worth a bigger investment.  The opener reminded me in many ways of the Wednesday opener.  Mr. Papillon was the pick, and he deserved the bet.  Dropping out of a good third for $35K he was in for a mere $20K today.  In addition in his previous starts he'd tried to finish into glacial paces - :50 and change half mile in three of them - and the other was a stakes event, an obvious toss.  But the glaring stat was that the third and fourth choices in the program were a combined 0-for-29 in their career and the one legitimate threat, the second choice, had an 0-for jockey riding for an 0-for barn.  I just didn't think they matched up with Mr. Papillon, or with jockey Tyler Gafflione - a 38% winner for the barn.  Gafflione broke sharply and stalked the leader through moderate fractions into the turn, then asked for run and ran away as easily best.  And when I'd gone to the windows I made the bet a "prime time" play so I cashed for nearly $40 to start the day!

Missed on the next two when I went with price plays with a chance.  Then came the fourth, which was my "BEST" bet of the day.  And again, what a great story.  I have said countless times through the first four weeks of the Gulfstream Championship Meet that, ".....you are either ALL in on Todd Pletcher, or you always try to beat him....." but like yesterday here's an example of "there are no rules in handicapping."  Now I'll be the first to tell you that it's rare that I'll BET against Todd Pletcher - I might NOT bet because I'm not sure he'll win, but bet against him?  Rarely.  Much less make the bet against Pletcher a "best bet."  So, like the opener I'd originally written to play a triple investment, thinking I just might up the ante.  So after going "prime time" on the opener I considered what to do here because I liked Chad Brown's Wage Acceleration more than I'd liked Mr. Papillon.  Still, there was the Pletcher factor.  AND 'Wage appeared to be one of those horses who "should" win each time out and had not.  Would he settle for another slice today without a win?  I was thinking of going more in before I left for the races and so I wanted to check what the three Gulfstream analysts thought.  Ron Nicoletti made him his "BET of the Day;" Jason Blewitt made him his "SINGLE" on his early Pick-5 ticket; and hottie Acacia Courtney made him HER BEST BET.  DRF analyst Mike Welsch also made him his top choice.  EVERYONE can't be wrong I figured.  So I went "ALL IN!  As they hit the far turn Pletcher's colt was in front at a big 8/1 price - oh no.  But I could tell jockey Tyler Gafflione had a lot of horse and a lot of confidence.  He let Wage Acceleration go and he blew by on the rail.  Soon after entering the stretch he was engaged by the 3/1 second choice and a stretch duel was on.  Gafflione kept his narrow lead but inside the final furlong the lone filly in the field came flying on the outside.......officially a photo finish, but I knew I'd won!

The $3.20 payoff with my big $50 bet resulted in a pay out of $80 and I was a certain winner at Gulfstream for the day.  My pick in the fifth scratched and in the sixth I'd passed so I headed for home.  Didn't cash on any of the last three here or the two picks at the Fair Grounds.  But still, felt good about the day with the two BIG BET WINS!

Friday's BIG WINS

Saturday December 23

The kids and our most adorable grandson arrived late last night - poor Oliver was NOT happy.....over tired from being in the car, in a strange dark house.  Took him quite a while to settle down, but finally he did.  But this morning he was a happy camper to see his Grandma & Grandpa and explore all the new things at their house.

As we watched football I was following my selections on my phone via the Xpressbet app.  Missed on my first play but then I won back-to-back races at Gulfstream.  What made them noteworthy was that I know the kinds of races I get the best win results and the ones which are difficult for me.  And turf sprints are the hardest for me to consistently win at.  But BOTH of these came in turf sprints.  The first was in the third, a maiden special for two-year-olds.  The first big angle was that Gidu was trained by Todd Pletcher with John Velazquez on board.  The second angle was that he'd debuted at Saratoga and dueled through sizzling fractions before being caught, and he was second behind a runner who came back to win a $350K stakes at Kentucky Downs, then ran in the Breeders' Cup.  I doubled the bet.  Right out of the gate he pressed the pace before taking over into the stretch without being asked.  Ran away as tons the best.

In the fifth it looked like a perfect storm of factors.  Sir Navigator had closed strongly to be third in the $100K Claiming Crown Canterbury behind Pay Any Price - who was my BET of the Day and the course record holder at the distance on the turf.  Now he was in starter optional claimer that had a lot of early pace to set him up.  Sure enough, he came rolling at the top of the lane and edged clear to score for my second win of the day.

Missed on three in a row, two of them even money at post time.  The feature race on the Gulfstream card was the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector.  The question was simply this, would X Y Jet, the 2015 winner of this race and had been away for more than a year, would he run his race?  Trainer Jorge Navarro was a huge 42% with long layoff runners like this and X Y Jet had been working sharply.  He looked to be on the lead and if even just running a "B+" race he'd win.  He was off a beat slow but quickly recovered and was easily on the lead.  He had a clear length lead into the stretch and while the fractions were sharp (:22.1 and :44.4) it was well within his range.  He kept on going and while it was close on the wire I never really was worried.  I'd tripled the bet and scored for the third time at Gulfstream.

I won two races from my first four picks at the Fair Grounds - had to be happy with that.  In their 9th and featured event - a second level allowance sprint - I thought Behavioral Bias was easily best and made him my BET of the DAY.  He'd earned back-to-back Beyer figures that would take a lifetime best to top by any of his rivals.  But really caught my eye was his huge best-of-221 bullet work.  Yes, you heard that right, two-hundred-and-twenty-one!  He was also the best of the day of day for DRF's Marcus Hersch.  Behavioral Bias tracked the leader in third to the top of the stretch before moving to the outside to engage the leader.  At the furlong pole he was let loose and he ran away as tons the best.

Cashed for nearly $35 to close out an excellent six-for-twelve day at the races.  The race went official just in time for Brad and I to hop in the car and head to the Florida Panthers game.  It was a great game and I so much enjoyed being at the game with my son.  We won - for our third in a row - and the Panthers Roar Corps came to our section to toss T-shirts and Brad caught one!

Sunday December 24

Again, a G-R-E-A-T racing story.....and again, like so many of the stories this week, it's one of those stories that's great because of it's unusuality.  First, the "big day" of the week is almost always on Saturday and often - when I'm handicapping on a daily basis - Sunday doesn't live up to the excitement and/or results of Saturday.  And secondly when I'm playing on a day-to-day basis, the "BIG" days at the track where I make a nice return often come on Saturday, largely because I have so many selections.  On this weekend I had a very good day Saturday with six wins from twelve selections, but as I remarked to Brad, it was one of those days where I traded money and came out about ten dollars ahead.  I, obviously, have had my "BIG" days already over the past two weeks.  And with only four picks today, what could I reasonably expect?  I passed the opener - and side story, on such a HUGE percentage of races where I pass but have a "top choice," the pick did not win.  In the second, it was a non-winners of three lifetime going a one-turn mile.  I liked Flying Rocket who was the only runner with multiple wins at this configuration....had a 31% rider for the barn; and a sharp bullet work.  Was also DRF's Mike Welsch's best.  Right to the front and never looked back.  

Considering how "obvious" Flying Rocket had appeared to me, the fact he played $4.20 (and I cashed for over $20) seemed a generous early Christmas present - note the "Christmas-themed" ticket :)  I'm so clever.  Passed the third - my pick was third and in the fourth there were two Todd Pletcher colts coming off the layoff.  I didn't care for the inside Pletcher colt, Theory, who'd been a Gr 3 winner at 2yo.  Didn't like that John Velazquez was not aboard.  Plus the other Pletcher colt, Egyptian Hero had a similar layoff line and I'd had him on both occasions that he scored last winter.  BUT those had come over the Tampa Bay Downs main track and this would be his first run locally.  As I watched on my phone I was very surprised that Theory, who was the 5/2 program favorite was an ice-cold 6/1 on the board while Egyptian Hero, 7/2 in the program, was being hammered down to even money.  The later money evened itself out and Theory was the tepid 5/2 choice at post time, but he was a well beaten, non-threatening 6th when never in the race.  My pick, 'Hero went off at 3/1 and after tracking the leaders through the first half mile stopped like he was shot finishing dead last, beaten over 30 lengths.  BOTH uncharacteristic efforts by the main man's runners.  The fifth was a maiden special for juveniles sprinting over the turf.  Like I mentioned on yesterday's card, these super-sprints on the grass are difficult for me.  But in here I liked Speed Star.  The reason was that his trainer was Saffie Joseph who had only two wins at the meet but BOTH of them had been with my money and both with top rider Luis Saez.  He doesn't ride often for this outfit but when he does he wins at a 40% clip.  In his most recent Speed Star had run in a spot nearly identical to this at GPW.  He was a sharp second, but I noted it was off a long layoff and it was his first try on the turf....so he had every right to improve today.  And with the connections, I liked his chances.  He burst out of the gate and was immediately clear by daylight.  None of the rest of the runners every made a serious move and he coasted home as my second winner on the day.  

He too was the favorite, but the $5.20 payoff not only led to a return of nearly $30, but regardless of what happened on the final pick of the day I was a winner for the day - four selections, two wins....bet $40, and I'd cashed for $47 for a profitable day.  I had to be happy with my Sunday at the races!  I had passed the next two (my top choices ran third and fourth), and my final pick of the day was in the eighth, an entry level allowance on the turf.  Like I've reiterated M-A-N-Y times, at Gulfstream over the Championship Meet you're either "ALL in" on Todd Pletcher or you're always trying to beat him at a price.  This was a turf route, and these often produced surprise results so even if he doesn't with with as many of these you are often rewarded.  He sent out Psalmody today and if you looked down his past performances he'd run well over this course last winter with a win and a second.  At 7/2 in the program he was well worth the investment.  I had not been keeping the live feed running, especially as I'd passed the previous two.  So when I went to watch this race I noted that on xpressbet it said "Gulfstream Race 8 OFF" - which meant they were already running.  They had left the gate and were entering the first turn as the video came on.  There was the bright yellow cap of my jockey pressing the leader out of the turn onto the backstretch and they had a daylight lead on the field.  Then the odds came up.  WHAT!!!!!!!  The crowd had let Psalmody go off at an astronomical 9/1.  Either they are way off on their handicapping or I am.  I'll take my chances, I thought because jockey Tyler Gafflione seemed to be riding very confidently.  And the leader was 16/1, so the chances were he wasn't going to last.  The two betting favorites were well back in the field and it didn't seem to me like they were going too fast.  There would have to be a complete collapse for my horse not to spring the upset.  Oh my, my heart started racing.  On the far turn Gafflione made his move, as he came to the long-time longshot leader.  They dueled to the furlong pole and he put his head in front.  The closers were coming as the front runner faded.  But the wire came up before they could get to me and I had the big upset in the bag!  What an early Christmas present to me!

That's right my friends, the $20.40 payoff with my double investment meant I'd cash for over $100 on the last selection of the day.  So for today, on a Sunday card with only four selections I'd won with 75% of my picks and had a profit of well over $100.  WHAT A WAY to end the week!  Merry Christmas to me!  Click HERE to see the photos of our Christmas with Brad and his family!