Weekday Racing - WHAT A DAY!
After not being able to get out to Gulfstream during the week last week I was determined to go at least once this week. My "concern" heading into the week's racing was that I'd had SUCH a great week last week, winning an amazing 50% of my picks, that I was sure I'd be "returning to reality" to "balance out" my win percentage to around 35% which is where it ALWAYS hovers. Knowing that I was probably "due" for more losses than wins I was determined to handicap more conservatively and play when I had a decisive edge, and not just an edge. Especially if I was going to drive down to the races - I wouldn't want to actually spend the afternoon at the track not winning. So I handicapped the Wednesday card Tuesday morning and despite my best efforts I ended up with EIGHT strong selections from a ten race card. This sounds like a good day to visit the track! And when I saw the weather forecast was for crisp, cool temps - never leaving the sixties - I knew I "had" to go. The first thing I did upon arriving (drove down with the 50+ degree air billowing through the open windows!) was take a selfie and post it on Facebook saying (see above) that days like this had always drawn the comment while I was working that "I'd be at Gulfstream today if I were retired" - and now, here I am!
In the opener I liked Chad Brown's Enchanting Kitten who looked to be the class of the field. The fact she was owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey prompted me to wear my Ramsey silks pin which Ken Ramsey had given to me a few years ago when I met him one afternoon at Gulfstream - see it on my sweater? The one concern I had was voiced in my analysis and it led to my making the bet here a minimum one, "......The favorites need to be mindful of who ever takes the early lead because there is no pace signed on. With so many turf events producing a big priced winner, a short field like this might be susceptible to such an upset....." Sure enough, with 'Kitten prompting a slow pace entering the backstretch a 6/1 runner shot up the rail, assumed the lead and never looked back while my choice came home strong but only second best. I passed the second race but used the time to check on my Florida Derby tickets. Discovered that they'd be held until January 1st and then be available for anyone to purchase them. So I used the "down" time to send out text messages to all the friends who regularly go to the big event with us. I told them all that I wasn't looking for money by the first, with the holidays and all, but that before I bought them on my credit card I'd like to know about how many tickets I needed to renew. The third race rolled around and I positioned myself in the paddock along the rail there to get a good look at Todd Pletcher's Fillet of Sole. As I remarked in my analysis, it was worth repeating that HERE at Gulfstream in the winter you are either "ALL IN" on Todd Pletcher and back him without question, or you always try to beat him with a price play. Because if you try to guess you WILL get burned.....I learned the hard way. Fillet of Sole was one that typically you'd not give a strong inclination to. His only win was in a Parx maiden event going a two-turn mile....this was an entry level allowance going seven furlongs. But hey, you're either in or you're not. I AM in with all Pletcher runners. As I stood in the paddock Gulfstream analyst Jason Blewitt talked about and then showed on the gigantic jumbotron screens the stat that Pletcher is better than 40% with layoff runners over the Gulfstream dirt. I was thinking, "I know this, don't tell everyone!" But instead of leading to more money on my pick, his odds floated up! As the field turned for home I had my camera on filming the stretch run but there was no Fillet of Sole to be seen. I checked the numbers on the board and he was sixth of seven more than half a dozen lengths out of it. Sigh.....but inside the furlong marker the track announcer called that the front runner was weakening, and "here comes Fillet of Sole splitting horses....." JUST UP IN TIME! Whooo hoooo! But the best part, the crowd had let him go off at better than 4/1 and so with the $10.40 payoff I was cashing for more than $50 on my first winner of the day!
This is nearly enough to cover my bets for the entire day! WOW am I glad I came out here to see this! I just could not believe people let him get away at this price. In the fourth race there was one thing I was certain of - Barbados Kitten was a vulnerable favorite who I thought was very likely to run second. He'd been aggressively dropped into a $40K spot last time out and when he should have won he was a narrowly beaten 2nd. He'd also been second when dropped in for a tag earlier in his career. After running second for $40K, the drop in for $20K today was a red flag for me. I looked for an upset pick .... mine ran fourth, but 'Kitten (despite being Ron Nicoletti's "BEST") was a close second. Had that part right! The fifth was on the turf, a maiden claiming event for older. The first thing you'd note about Your Only Man was that this guy was NOT a typical Todd Pletcher maiden. First, in for a tag, pretty unusual. Second, on the turf - not typical but not completely out of the ordinary. Also, he'd debuted over a year ago in Ireland and finished third behind a future Group winner. So you had to figure he had some talent. But much like the third, hey - you're in or you're not with Pletcher. As I was in the paddock analyst Ron Nicoletti not only did not have Your Only Man on top, he didn't have him in the top four! But the camera turned to Jason Blewitt and he said, for everyone to hear, that sure this horse "didn't figure," but then neither did the $29.40 upset winner for Pletcher last week....guess who had that one, that's right, ME! He went on to say that Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez were so hot right now that you had to consider this one. As the field turned for home Your Only Man was rallying from sixth, got into fourth, and at the furlong pole made his move on the leader. Splitting horses Johnny V pushed for the wire and again, he was up in time! WHOOO HOOOO! And much like the earlier Pletcher winner, this one also was allowed to go off at a generous price!
With the return of on the second winner of the day - BOTH Pletcher colts - meant I'd already made a profit on the day and we're not even half way through the card AND my "BEST" of the day has yet to run. This could be a special day I started thinking! When I'd looked over the past performances for today's sixth race, a $12.5K claiming sprint going six furlongs, I thought it was a fairly evenly matched field. But one horse jumped off the page to me.....Scotland Bay. In fact he had sooooo many angles going for him that I decided to go for the upset and make him a "day maker!" As it turned out I'd already had not one, but two of those :) First, Scotland Bay had been claimed last time out for $10K. The new trainer Saffie Joseph does really well (33%) with first off the claim types. AND that he RAISED him in price spoke to confidence. Second, top rider Luis Saez was riding today. Third, Scotland Bay was a SIX time winner at this distance and clearly the most accomplished six furlong sprinter in the field. Finally, there looked to be at least three if not four who would "need to lead" and that would set the table for Scotland Bay's late kick. I decided to watch this one from the rail and as they spun out of the turn he was rallying from near the back. I focused my camera on the furlong pole and listened as the announcer called in a fever pitch, "HERE COMES SCOTLAND BAY!" He had rallied up the inside saving ground through the turn, then Saez got him outside in the clear and he inhaled the field late to blow by comfortably - my THIRD WIN of the day! And check out the price - OH MY, another generous payout!
With this big pay check I am not only winning for the day regardless, but I'm a big time winner. With the crisp weather, the handicapping success, who couldn't be having a great day! WOW! Next up, one of the more "interesting" stories of the day. As I mentioned I had eight picks from the ten race card and I "knew" that after the 6th I had a break before my BET of the Day. As I walked upstairs to video a recap of Race 6 I heard Jason Blewitt begin to talk about the upcoming 7th. He remarked how hot Pletcher had been, and I thought "I know this, I had them both!"....then Blewitt remarks that there is a Pletcher in here....wait, and why don't I have him? Then Blewitt continued that there wasn't one but TWO Pletcher in here. Oh, that's why, couldn't choose between them. So I made my video and went down to the paddock to watch the horses. As they walked out to the track I pulled my phone out and checked the video I'd just made....wait, I didn't have the camera on. Sigh....hustled up to the overlook and made another version of the video. Walked all the way back down, out to the front, down to the end of the grandstands, climbed the two levels of stairs and sat down with about two minutes to post. I opened my program to see who I'd put on top. WHAT THE?????? I DO have a bet in here! It's Todd Pletcher's Impact Player. I rushed back down, into the Silks simulcast area and got to one of my favorite tellers (Karen, who is a twin, like my wife, and her sister - also a teller - is named Kim!). Got my bet in and got back to my seat just as they walked into the gate. This was a Maiden Special for 2yo going six furlongs. Impact Player was the favorite - he'd been a just miss 2nd in his Saratoga debut and the winner had come right back to take down the Grade 3 Futurity at Belmont. Pletcher-layoff-dirt....you know the story! John Velazquez got him right to the front but one of his rivals came right to him. They went at it through the turn and still hounded on the front end. It was a scintillating stretch duel, one head up and one head down until they hit the wire virtually together, but I felt pretty sure I'd won. The photo showed I'd won for the fourth time - and Pletcher-Velazquez had won their third race together. W-H-A-T A DAY I'm having.
In the 8th it was a PASS race so I enjoyed just watching the horses in the paddock and then sitting in the cool afternoon air watching it all unfold in front of me. The ninth rolled around and it was the featured event of the day, a starter optional claiming event on the turf. It was also my BEST of the Day! I decided as I was waiting for the eighth to get underway that I'd make both the bet on the 9th and the small bet on the 10th prior to the feature and I'd make an intro clip in the paddock for both. That way once I'd won - and I was sure I would :) - I could make a post-race video comment from in the grandstands and head for home. Songeur was the pick in the ninth, a Todd Pletcher runner who had won three in a row prior to his most recent......
That - especially being out of the Pletcher barn - would have been enough to make him the choice. Note however that his most recent was first off a layoff AND had been in starter allowance company, a click better than this level ..... AND that his three wins had ALL been vs. claiming types like this. But THE KEY for me came because I follow racing at Gulfstream so closely. Last Wednesday everyone made Purely Boy their bet of the day. I did not like him. Well, he walked with that race easily. So as I looked over the above past performances, do you see what I see? In that last race? That's right, Songeur had finished second TWO LENGTHS IN FRONT OF Purely Boy (and another runner had also come right back to win!). Both analysts picked him on top and he was the post time favorite hovering around 1-2 odds as they approached the gate. As the field swept by me the first time Velazquez settled Songeur in the back. A little farther back than I was comfortable with, especially since it had appeared to me that all the turf races today and of late had favored horses near the front. As they approached the far turn Songeur was beginning to move, but seemed too far back. Heads turned for home and STILL so far back. Inside the final furlong he was now really rolling, oh this is going to be close......PHOTO FINISH! The track announcer said, ".....oh that's hard to call but with the way things have been going for Todd Pletcher I'd guess it was Songeur!" And that's what the photo revealed! WHAT A WAY TO END THE DAY!
I headed for home and enjoyed the cool air, later finding out my last pick had not fired. So for the day I was a remarkable 5-for-8.....over 60% and had profited nearly $150. WOW.....as I said, WHAT A DAY!
In the opener I liked Chad Brown's Enchanting Kitten who looked to be the class of the field. The fact she was owned by Ken & Sarah Ramsey prompted me to wear my Ramsey silks pin which Ken Ramsey had given to me a few years ago when I met him one afternoon at Gulfstream - see it on my sweater? The one concern I had was voiced in my analysis and it led to my making the bet here a minimum one, "......The favorites need to be mindful of who ever takes the early lead because there is no pace signed on. With so many turf events producing a big priced winner, a short field like this might be susceptible to such an upset....." Sure enough, with 'Kitten prompting a slow pace entering the backstretch a 6/1 runner shot up the rail, assumed the lead and never looked back while my choice came home strong but only second best. I passed the second race but used the time to check on my Florida Derby tickets. Discovered that they'd be held until January 1st and then be available for anyone to purchase them. So I used the "down" time to send out text messages to all the friends who regularly go to the big event with us. I told them all that I wasn't looking for money by the first, with the holidays and all, but that before I bought them on my credit card I'd like to know about how many tickets I needed to renew. The third race rolled around and I positioned myself in the paddock along the rail there to get a good look at Todd Pletcher's Fillet of Sole. As I remarked in my analysis, it was worth repeating that HERE at Gulfstream in the winter you are either "ALL IN" on Todd Pletcher and back him without question, or you always try to beat him with a price play. Because if you try to guess you WILL get burned.....I learned the hard way. Fillet of Sole was one that typically you'd not give a strong inclination to. His only win was in a Parx maiden event going a two-turn mile....this was an entry level allowance going seven furlongs. But hey, you're either in or you're not. I AM in with all Pletcher runners. As I stood in the paddock Gulfstream analyst Jason Blewitt talked about and then showed on the gigantic jumbotron screens the stat that Pletcher is better than 40% with layoff runners over the Gulfstream dirt. I was thinking, "I know this, don't tell everyone!" But instead of leading to more money on my pick, his odds floated up! As the field turned for home I had my camera on filming the stretch run but there was no Fillet of Sole to be seen. I checked the numbers on the board and he was sixth of seven more than half a dozen lengths out of it. Sigh.....but inside the furlong marker the track announcer called that the front runner was weakening, and "here comes Fillet of Sole splitting horses....." JUST UP IN TIME! Whooo hoooo! But the best part, the crowd had let him go off at better than 4/1 and so with the $10.40 payoff I was cashing for more than $50 on my first winner of the day!
Look carefully, you can see the leader just inside Fillet of Sole - VERY CLOSE!
This is nearly enough to cover my bets for the entire day! WOW am I glad I came out here to see this! I just could not believe people let him get away at this price. In the fourth race there was one thing I was certain of - Barbados Kitten was a vulnerable favorite who I thought was very likely to run second. He'd been aggressively dropped into a $40K spot last time out and when he should have won he was a narrowly beaten 2nd. He'd also been second when dropped in for a tag earlier in his career. After running second for $40K, the drop in for $20K today was a red flag for me. I looked for an upset pick .... mine ran fourth, but 'Kitten (despite being Ron Nicoletti's "BEST") was a close second. Had that part right! The fifth was on the turf, a maiden claiming event for older. The first thing you'd note about Your Only Man was that this guy was NOT a typical Todd Pletcher maiden. First, in for a tag, pretty unusual. Second, on the turf - not typical but not completely out of the ordinary. Also, he'd debuted over a year ago in Ireland and finished third behind a future Group winner. So you had to figure he had some talent. But much like the third, hey - you're in or you're not with Pletcher. As I was in the paddock analyst Ron Nicoletti not only did not have Your Only Man on top, he didn't have him in the top four! But the camera turned to Jason Blewitt and he said, for everyone to hear, that sure this horse "didn't figure," but then neither did the $29.40 upset winner for Pletcher last week....guess who had that one, that's right, ME! He went on to say that Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez were so hot right now that you had to consider this one. As the field turned for home Your Only Man was rallying from sixth, got into fourth, and at the furlong pole made his move on the leader. Splitting horses Johnny V pushed for the wire and again, he was up in time! WHOOO HOOOO! And much like the earlier Pletcher winner, this one also was allowed to go off at a generous price!
With the return of on the second winner of the day - BOTH Pletcher colts - meant I'd already made a profit on the day and we're not even half way through the card AND my "BEST" of the day has yet to run. This could be a special day I started thinking! When I'd looked over the past performances for today's sixth race, a $12.5K claiming sprint going six furlongs, I thought it was a fairly evenly matched field. But one horse jumped off the page to me.....Scotland Bay. In fact he had sooooo many angles going for him that I decided to go for the upset and make him a "day maker!" As it turned out I'd already had not one, but two of those :) First, Scotland Bay had been claimed last time out for $10K. The new trainer Saffie Joseph does really well (33%) with first off the claim types. AND that he RAISED him in price spoke to confidence. Second, top rider Luis Saez was riding today. Third, Scotland Bay was a SIX time winner at this distance and clearly the most accomplished six furlong sprinter in the field. Finally, there looked to be at least three if not four who would "need to lead" and that would set the table for Scotland Bay's late kick. I decided to watch this one from the rail and as they spun out of the turn he was rallying from near the back. I focused my camera on the furlong pole and listened as the announcer called in a fever pitch, "HERE COMES SCOTLAND BAY!" He had rallied up the inside saving ground through the turn, then Saez got him outside in the clear and he inhaled the field late to blow by comfortably - my THIRD WIN of the day! And check out the price - OH MY, another generous payout!
With this big pay check I am not only winning for the day regardless, but I'm a big time winner. With the crisp weather, the handicapping success, who couldn't be having a great day! WOW! Next up, one of the more "interesting" stories of the day. As I mentioned I had eight picks from the ten race card and I "knew" that after the 6th I had a break before my BET of the Day. As I walked upstairs to video a recap of Race 6 I heard Jason Blewitt begin to talk about the upcoming 7th. He remarked how hot Pletcher had been, and I thought "I know this, I had them both!"....then Blewitt remarks that there is a Pletcher in here....wait, and why don't I have him? Then Blewitt continued that there wasn't one but TWO Pletcher in here. Oh, that's why, couldn't choose between them. So I made my video and went down to the paddock to watch the horses. As they walked out to the track I pulled my phone out and checked the video I'd just made....wait, I didn't have the camera on. Sigh....hustled up to the overlook and made another version of the video. Walked all the way back down, out to the front, down to the end of the grandstands, climbed the two levels of stairs and sat down with about two minutes to post. I opened my program to see who I'd put on top. WHAT THE?????? I DO have a bet in here! It's Todd Pletcher's Impact Player. I rushed back down, into the Silks simulcast area and got to one of my favorite tellers (Karen, who is a twin, like my wife, and her sister - also a teller - is named Kim!). Got my bet in and got back to my seat just as they walked into the gate. This was a Maiden Special for 2yo going six furlongs. Impact Player was the favorite - he'd been a just miss 2nd in his Saratoga debut and the winner had come right back to take down the Grade 3 Futurity at Belmont. Pletcher-layoff-dirt....you know the story! John Velazquez got him right to the front but one of his rivals came right to him. They went at it through the turn and still hounded on the front end. It was a scintillating stretch duel, one head up and one head down until they hit the wire virtually together, but I felt pretty sure I'd won. The photo showed I'd won for the fourth time - and Pletcher-Velazquez had won their third race together. W-H-A-T A DAY I'm having.
That - especially being out of the Pletcher barn - would have been enough to make him the choice. Note however that his most recent was first off a layoff AND had been in starter allowance company, a click better than this level ..... AND that his three wins had ALL been vs. claiming types like this. But THE KEY for me came because I follow racing at Gulfstream so closely. Last Wednesday everyone made Purely Boy their bet of the day. I did not like him. Well, he walked with that race easily. So as I looked over the above past performances, do you see what I see? In that last race? That's right, Songeur had finished second TWO LENGTHS IN FRONT OF Purely Boy (and another runner had also come right back to win!). Both analysts picked him on top and he was the post time favorite hovering around 1-2 odds as they approached the gate. As the field swept by me the first time Velazquez settled Songeur in the back. A little farther back than I was comfortable with, especially since it had appeared to me that all the turf races today and of late had favored horses near the front. As they approached the far turn Songeur was beginning to move, but seemed too far back. Heads turned for home and STILL so far back. Inside the final furlong he was now really rolling, oh this is going to be close......PHOTO FINISH! The track announcer said, ".....oh that's hard to call but with the way things have been going for Todd Pletcher I'd guess it was Songeur!" And that's what the photo revealed! WHAT A WAY TO END THE DAY!
I headed for home and enjoyed the cool air, later finding out my last pick had not fired. So for the day I was a remarkable 5-for-8.....over 60% and had profited nearly $150. WOW.....as I said, WHAT A DAY!
Wednesday December 13 Highlights
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