December 13 - 17
When I wrote up last week's sensational results I KNEW that this week would find me writing about how my winning percentage had declined. Over the span of 20,000 plus races I always win at about a 35% clip.....over a season, a month, or a week. It's good to know because there are times when I go through a period of low win percentages and I know to hang in there because my numbers WILL rebound. Conversely, a big win percentage is typically followed by a decline to "balance out" the numbers. Well, I was half right....I did win "less" as I "only" hit 41% of my picks and "only" had a profit of nearly $150. WOW, what a week again, especially in light of last week's great success! At the Fair Grounds I only had three selections on the day. I was a close second with the first in a turf sprint, clear second with my second in a one mile turf event, and then second AGAIN with another turf sprinter. Sigh...... but I still made a profit for the day!
Wednesday December 13
Today was one of "those days" that you keep coming back to the races for. It was such an AMAZING Day that it deserved it's own full journal page. Click HERE to see it.
Wednesday December 13 Highlights
Thursday December 14
I tried to be conservative again today, but in the eighth I found a "lock" pick and it was the highlight of the day. At Gulfstream I missed on the first two picks but in the sixth of the day I remarked in my analysis that it's unusual that on a weekday card, in a nondescript non-winners of three lifetime claiming event for a cheap $6,250 tag you could find a strong win candidate like Flying Girl. The first thirteen races of her career were on the turf and produced a single win. She romped by nine widening lengths when dropped into a 2-lifetime one-turn mile on the main track. She went two turns vs. higher tagged rivals at GPW and was good, including a just-miss 2nd by a nose while daylight clear of the show filly. Those facts in and of themselves made her a strong choice, but that her "strongest rival" had never been beyond seven furlongs and that one had an 0-for-23 rider....well, Flying Girl looked awfully strong.
Cashed for over $25 on my triple investment! My final Gulfstream play was the aforementioned BET of the Day in the eighth. This was a one mile turf event for entry level runners. Warranty was inconsistent through her first six, but beat $75K maidens at Saratoga on closing weekend. Counting that event, her last five saw her win three, finish 3rd, and clip heels. Those facts make her a strong favorite, but her last two Beyers of 79 and 76 beat all LIFETIME numbers for her rivals. I was hopeful that maybe, just maybe we'd get 3/5 at post time. As they turned for home she was in high gear, but the leader was not backing up. Still Warranty surged and the rider never went to the whip as she caught the leader in the shadow of the wire then edged clear.
And the price was a delicious 4/5 meaning my BET of the DAY investment would return nearly $60!
Cashed for over $25 on my triple investment! My final Gulfstream play was the aforementioned BET of the Day in the eighth. This was a one mile turf event for entry level runners. Warranty was inconsistent through her first six, but beat $75K maidens at Saratoga on closing weekend. Counting that event, her last five saw her win three, finish 3rd, and clip heels. Those facts make her a strong favorite, but her last two Beyers of 79 and 76 beat all LIFETIME numbers for her rivals. I was hopeful that maybe, just maybe we'd get 3/5 at post time. As they turned for home she was in high gear, but the leader was not backing up. Still Warranty surged and the rider never went to the whip as she caught the leader in the shadow of the wire then edged clear.
And the price was a delicious 4/5 meaning my BET of the DAY investment would return nearly $60!
Friday December 15
A three-win day at Gulfstream kept the week rolling! At the Fair Grounds I had hottie Chantal Sutherland on Red Hot Cherry who opened up turning for home and was clear at the 16th pole, but was nailed on the wire. Then I had top jockey Florent Geroux on Tip Tap Tapizar at 2/1 - same price 'Cherry was - and he couldn't not get by the leader, 2nd again. But I did pick up wins in the final two New Orleans plays. Good Play was 4/1 in the program for Brad Cox who always spots his horses in a winning spot - this maiden claimer for 2yo looked right. Bet down to 4/5 he won and I cashed for a little under $10. And in the finale - a non-winners of three lifetime for state-breds for a mere nickel - I liked Outback Jack who had beaten state-bred MSW last winter and was dropping out of OPEN $20K "beaten" company. He too was easily best and at a big $6.20 allowing me to collect over $15 on the minimum play.
At Gulfstream the day started off delightfully in the second race, a maiden claimer for 2yo sprinting the demanding seven furlong distance. In the past, while "ALL IN" on Todd Pletcher, I was reluctant to bet on - or against - Pletcher runners who'd failed in a GPW start before the Championship Meet, but he's already won with those kind this winter, so I liked Caloric today. He was cold on the board at 9/2 in a MSW and didn't fire. Dropped in for a $25K tag and got top rider Luis Saez today, which told me he was "LIVE" for the win and the connections were ok with letting someone else take him to run him as a blue collar claimer.
I tripled the bet as the Pletcher barn continues on fire! The $5.40 payoff led to nearly $30 in winnings! I ran third with back-to-back GP plays....one at 6/1 the other at 4/5 :( before we arrived at the seventh race. This was a maiden special for two-year-olds and it was a good analysis that was rewarded. Song of Melody had finished about two lengths off of recent winner Crown of Joy despite being parked in post ten of eleven. The runner-up from that race had not run well in his subsequent start, so I thought he'd be unlikely to run as well as Song of Melody who figured to improve with top rider Luis Saez on board. And the favorite looked vulnerable to me - not only had she lost as the favorite in her debut but she'd also been FIVE back of the same Crown of Joy. Song of Melody pressed the leaders through the turn, got a narrow advantage turning for home and opened up while the favorite hung at even money, finishing fourth, and the runner who'd finished 2nd in front of 'Melody closed belatedly without threatening the winner to be third at 5/2.
No short price for me as Song of Melody paid a big $11.80.....oh to have at least doubled the bet! But I did collect nearly $25 on the minimum play. But the "Best" of the day was in the featured 9th, an entry level allowance going seven furlongs. The first key is that this IS Gulfstream, and Spice Lady IS trained by Todd Pletcher and DOES have John Velazquez on board. The only dilemma appeared to be that another in the field had top rider Luis Saez and that one was also trained by Pletcher. But Johnny V has been on fire for the top conditioner and Spice Lady exhibited several common Pletcher win indicators: (1) she ran well here last winter; (2) she was coming off a long layoff, and like Wednesday when they posted it on the jumbo screen, Pletcher is well over 40% with his long returnees over the GP dirt; (3) she runs in the colors of Michael Repole and the only thing better than a Pletcher-Velazquez combo is when they are together for top NY owner Repole. (4) When Spice Lady stretched out to a mile off her GP maiden win she was fourth behind a filly named Fabulous Florida who went on to run in the Gr 3 Eight Belles on Ky Derby Day and the Gr 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day. Right to the front and was clear....the farther they went the bigger the margin, my THIRD winner at GP!
Cashed for nearly $30 on this one! I had one more bet, in the finale on Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown on the turf in a MSW on the turf. She pressed the leaders, dueled between runners in the stretch, got a nose in front of the leader but was nailed on the wire oh so close.....
But for the day.....
Cannot argue with that my friends!
At Gulfstream the day started off delightfully in the second race, a maiden claimer for 2yo sprinting the demanding seven furlong distance. In the past, while "ALL IN" on Todd Pletcher, I was reluctant to bet on - or against - Pletcher runners who'd failed in a GPW start before the Championship Meet, but he's already won with those kind this winter, so I liked Caloric today. He was cold on the board at 9/2 in a MSW and didn't fire. Dropped in for a $25K tag and got top rider Luis Saez today, which told me he was "LIVE" for the win and the connections were ok with letting someone else take him to run him as a blue collar claimer.
I tripled the bet as the Pletcher barn continues on fire! The $5.40 payoff led to nearly $30 in winnings! I ran third with back-to-back GP plays....one at 6/1 the other at 4/5 :( before we arrived at the seventh race. This was a maiden special for two-year-olds and it was a good analysis that was rewarded. Song of Melody had finished about two lengths off of recent winner Crown of Joy despite being parked in post ten of eleven. The runner-up from that race had not run well in his subsequent start, so I thought he'd be unlikely to run as well as Song of Melody who figured to improve with top rider Luis Saez on board. And the favorite looked vulnerable to me - not only had she lost as the favorite in her debut but she'd also been FIVE back of the same Crown of Joy. Song of Melody pressed the leaders through the turn, got a narrow advantage turning for home and opened up while the favorite hung at even money, finishing fourth, and the runner who'd finished 2nd in front of 'Melody closed belatedly without threatening the winner to be third at 5/2.
No short price for me as Song of Melody paid a big $11.80.....oh to have at least doubled the bet! But I did collect nearly $25 on the minimum play. But the "Best" of the day was in the featured 9th, an entry level allowance going seven furlongs. The first key is that this IS Gulfstream, and Spice Lady IS trained by Todd Pletcher and DOES have John Velazquez on board. The only dilemma appeared to be that another in the field had top rider Luis Saez and that one was also trained by Pletcher. But Johnny V has been on fire for the top conditioner and Spice Lady exhibited several common Pletcher win indicators: (1) she ran well here last winter; (2) she was coming off a long layoff, and like Wednesday when they posted it on the jumbo screen, Pletcher is well over 40% with his long returnees over the GP dirt; (3) she runs in the colors of Michael Repole and the only thing better than a Pletcher-Velazquez combo is when they are together for top NY owner Repole. (4) When Spice Lady stretched out to a mile off her GP maiden win she was fourth behind a filly named Fabulous Florida who went on to run in the Gr 3 Eight Belles on Ky Derby Day and the Gr 1 Acorn on Belmont Stakes day. Right to the front and was clear....the farther they went the bigger the margin, my THIRD winner at GP!
Cashed for nearly $30 on this one! I had one more bet, in the finale on Battle of Blenheim for Chad Brown on the turf in a MSW on the turf. She pressed the leaders, dueled between runners in the stretch, got a nose in front of the leader but was nailed on the wire oh so close.....
Battle of Blenheim - Green Cap (inside)
But for the day.....
Saturday December 16
I went to the races today but only stayed through about half the card. You KNOW there had to be very unusual circumstances for me to leave the races early....well there was, and it was WELL worth it. When we were on our Viking River Cruises "Imperial Jewels of China" adventure we became close friends with two couples - Ron & Nancy, who live in Orlando and we've seen a couple of times since our return, and their long-time friends Dave & Leslie. Today the latter two were flying into So Fla and meeting the others for a Caribbean cruise that begins tomorrow. So we agreed that they would all come over for dinner and cards this evening. Here we are inside the Forbidden City in Beijing.....
The plan called for them to probably arrive at our house around 4 pm so I decided to head out to Gulfstream for the first half of the day. There were FIVE, count them, five Grade 3 stakes on the Gulfstream card and at the Fair Grounds it was Super Santa Saturday with seven listed events. I only hit for just under 30% for the day because of only a single win in New Orleans - nearly all their stakes were won by longshots that just didn't figure .... shades of the Breeders' Cup. But I had much better success at Gulfstream. I had a pick in the first, but nothing in the second so I got out there for the opener only to have my runner scratch late. So when I finally got to play it was in the third, a claiming event on the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs. Little Baltar had "darkened form" as his last two did not look good on paper. But if you looked down the past performances you'd note that he'd run very well here last winter and that was against allowance types. When dropped in class into a $35K "beaten" event he rallied to be up in time. He had recently been claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph, and that angle had produced a $9.80 winner for me Wednesday. I was afraid of the price being lowered because the DRF's Mike Welsch made this one his "BEST" of the day despite the multiple stakes fields later. As the field turned for home he had a full head of steam it was just a question of if he'd run out of time, but he was up and by the leaders late for the win.
And the best part was the very generous $6.80 payoff, leading to nearly $35 in cash for me! In the first stakes event, the Grade 3 Rampart I was against the likely favorite Curlin's Approval who've I've always thought was overrated despite her multiple graded wins. The question for me was to stick with the decided underdog, Nonna Mela who was certain to be 5/1 or better, who was sent out by the white-hot Pletcher barn, or the long layoff returnee, Lewis Bay. She was trained by Chad Brown and I thought the layoff would probably NOT be an issue. In the end I could not have looked myself in the mirror if Pletcher won again at a price without me. But I was concerned that John Velazquez was on another runner and not Pletcher's. Third, Lewis Bay won and Curlin's Approval disappointed. At least my thinking was right. The sixth was my BET of the DAY! It was a MSW for two-year-olds and yes, there was a Pletcher runner, with Velazquez up. Duh. Liked that in her debut she'd second best behind a runaway winner. Welsch commented in his analysis that Navistar had been working very sharply lately including matching strides with another Pletcher runner, Fillet of Sole who returned to win for me Wednesday at a big $10.40. Navistar was no secret and sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite. But she was an easy winner. Rated kindly for a quarter mile then JR let her go and with each stride drew further and further away from the field. MUCH the best!
I had wagered a big $30 investment and would collect nearly $45 in return. Next up was the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl and I had questions about Dearest who was the 6/5 program favorite. She would either have to try to wire the field from the rail or try to work out a trip. She had a huge speed figure advantage as her last two were better than 92 of the 93 lifetime figures of her rivals. BUT she'd not been out since July and there was the race flow. I bet, but not a lot. Led into the stretch then faded to fourth. Now it was nearly 3:30 and so I headed home. Got there in plenty of time before the two couples arrived and we had a great evening together. After they all left I watched the replays and I had another big win. In the 8th, the Grade 3 My Charmer going a mile on the turf, On Leave was the 7/5 program favorite and looked every bit of the part. In her last eleven races she had SIX WINS! WOW. Her losses were to Gr 1 winner Cambodia, Gr 1 winner Time and Motion, and multiple Gr 1 winner and Eclipse Award champion Lady Eli. The other two were a wide trip, photo finish fifth and last time out she was way, WAY too far back early. Today she rallied strongly, accelerated in mid-stretch and while the finish was close you could tell NY rider Irad Ortiz - in for the big stakes races - never was worried as he confidently hand rode her to the wire.
The bet had been a prime-time play and the return was nearly $40!
The plan called for them to probably arrive at our house around 4 pm so I decided to head out to Gulfstream for the first half of the day. There were FIVE, count them, five Grade 3 stakes on the Gulfstream card and at the Fair Grounds it was Super Santa Saturday with seven listed events. I only hit for just under 30% for the day because of only a single win in New Orleans - nearly all their stakes were won by longshots that just didn't figure .... shades of the Breeders' Cup. But I had much better success at Gulfstream. I had a pick in the first, but nothing in the second so I got out there for the opener only to have my runner scratch late. So when I finally got to play it was in the third, a claiming event on the turf going 7 1/2 furlongs. Little Baltar had "darkened form" as his last two did not look good on paper. But if you looked down the past performances you'd note that he'd run very well here last winter and that was against allowance types. When dropped in class into a $35K "beaten" event he rallied to be up in time. He had recently been claimed by trainer Saffie Joseph, and that angle had produced a $9.80 winner for me Wednesday. I was afraid of the price being lowered because the DRF's Mike Welsch made this one his "BEST" of the day despite the multiple stakes fields later. As the field turned for home he had a full head of steam it was just a question of if he'd run out of time, but he was up and by the leaders late for the win.
And the best part was the very generous $6.80 payoff, leading to nearly $35 in cash for me! In the first stakes event, the Grade 3 Rampart I was against the likely favorite Curlin's Approval who've I've always thought was overrated despite her multiple graded wins. The question for me was to stick with the decided underdog, Nonna Mela who was certain to be 5/1 or better, who was sent out by the white-hot Pletcher barn, or the long layoff returnee, Lewis Bay. She was trained by Chad Brown and I thought the layoff would probably NOT be an issue. In the end I could not have looked myself in the mirror if Pletcher won again at a price without me. But I was concerned that John Velazquez was on another runner and not Pletcher's. Third, Lewis Bay won and Curlin's Approval disappointed. At least my thinking was right. The sixth was my BET of the DAY! It was a MSW for two-year-olds and yes, there was a Pletcher runner, with Velazquez up. Duh. Liked that in her debut she'd second best behind a runaway winner. Welsch commented in his analysis that Navistar had been working very sharply lately including matching strides with another Pletcher runner, Fillet of Sole who returned to win for me Wednesday at a big $10.40. Navistar was no secret and sent off as the prohibitive 2/5 favorite. But she was an easy winner. Rated kindly for a quarter mile then JR let her go and with each stride drew further and further away from the field. MUCH the best!
The bet had been a prime-time play and the return was nearly $40!
Sunday December 17
I closed out the week with two wins at Gulfstream and a perfect 1-for-1 day at the Fair Grounds (after all my other picks scratched). At the Fair Grounds they had rain, again. So all of my turf selections (four) were scratched. That left me with a single play, on Private Party in a non-winners of three lifetime going a two-turn mile. The ONLY time he was in a restricted event he romped in a $10K 2L at Churchill Downs. Since he had run in "beaten" company for $16K and now he drops into this restricted 3L spot AND for a mere $5K. The entry was favored and was sent off at 4/5 odds but they were no match for my choice as Private Party scored at a nice $6.40 leading to a $30+ payoff. The opener at Gulfstream was a five furlong turf sprint for entry level two-year-olds. Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez teamed up and that was good enough for me. Sent away as the 3/2 favorite JR tracked the 21/1 longshot who spurted to the front. But as they hit the turn that one was running comfortably without being asked and Johnny was having to push hard for El Duce to keep up. The longshot never stopped and scored a $44.20 upset while El Duce finished third. Passed the second but in the third I was back on board in a MSW for 2yo runners going a one-turn mile. Nope, no Todd Pletcher in here, but I thought that Barrier Island was as solid as any Pletcher maiden. This filly had been a sharp second in her Saratoga debut for Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey and then was third in an Aqueduct sprint. She'd have to keep up with the program favorite, Mockery. But I didn't like that the speed figures for that one had been declining and the last two times she went farther than six furlongs she faded. Just and I mean J-U-S-T as it had looked on paper.....Mockery set the pace and looked like she was long gone until they turned for home. Local rider Tyler Gafflione was rallying very strongly from off the pace on Barrier Island as Mockery shortened stride. All the momentum and right on by!
And at a nice 2/1 price meant my second winning ticket would again be worth more than $30! I missed with a 2/1 favorite in the 7th but in the eighth I got my final win of the day and the week. This was a maiden special for 3yo going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Mixed feelings for me - the fact that these sophomores STILL did not have a win was worrisome. And my pick, Blind Pool, had never been on the turf as of today. But the conditioner was Chad Brown with jockey Javier Castellano. If anyone can get one ready for the grass it's Brown. She looked to have enough speed to wire the field, but also could sit patiently off a longshot leader. That's what Castellano chose to do. When they hit the top of the lane he asked and Blind Pool drew off like a champion. Oh I wish I'd been willing to go at least double investment because the payoff was a generous $10. Still, rewarded with $25 for my third win of the day from just six selections.....another great day.
And it was another big week of handicapping (see photo at the top!). With three weeks in the books and already looking to the Florida Derby I sent out emails to all my pals who've been along for the Derby experience over the past and so I looked up how I've done through the first twelve days, three weeks......
Usually it's difficult to win at Gulfstream, especially early. And I find over the years that my win statistics improve as the meet goes on, so I know that I need to be patient early in the meet. But obviously, not so much this year.
And at a nice 2/1 price meant my second winning ticket would again be worth more than $30! I missed with a 2/1 favorite in the 7th but in the eighth I got my final win of the day and the week. This was a maiden special for 3yo going 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf. Mixed feelings for me - the fact that these sophomores STILL did not have a win was worrisome. And my pick, Blind Pool, had never been on the turf as of today. But the conditioner was Chad Brown with jockey Javier Castellano. If anyone can get one ready for the grass it's Brown. She looked to have enough speed to wire the field, but also could sit patiently off a longshot leader. That's what Castellano chose to do. When they hit the top of the lane he asked and Blind Pool drew off like a champion. Oh I wish I'd been willing to go at least double investment because the payoff was a generous $10. Still, rewarded with $25 for my third win of the day from just six selections.....another great day.
And it was another big week of handicapping (see photo at the top!). With three weeks in the books and already looking to the Florida Derby I sent out emails to all my pals who've been along for the Derby experience over the past and so I looked up how I've done through the first twelve days, three weeks......
Usually it's difficult to win at Gulfstream, especially early. And I find over the years that my win statistics improve as the meet goes on, so I know that I need to be patient early in the meet. But obviously, not so much this year.
Gulfstream Week Three Highlights
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