Gulfstream 2017-18: December 30

Laurel's Chirstmastide Saturday Stakes Day

Gulfstream: Tropical Park Oaks Day

For the races today I debated about playing either just Gulfstream's races or multiple tracks. If the situation had been a routine Saturday I would have been at Gulfstream and I would have handicapped several different tracks. But our daughter Julie was scheduled to be in late Friday night and we had tickets for the Florida Panthers game Saturday night, so I didn't want to be away from the family. Play multi-tracks online you say.....well, yes I could, but again I didn't want to be "unsocial," but in the end I was swayed by the fact that Laurel was offering a multi-stakes program and I could earn 20x bonus points in my xpressbet account. So I figured I'd play the races, just not sit in front of the computer UNLESS everyone seemed to be content during the day. Well, I was happy that after spending the morning together and exchanging Christmas gifts everyone did seem quite content. So I was able to interact with the family to some degree while tracking the races online. And I have to say, the day could not have been much better - in total. First, having Julie & Brendon here was great in and of itself; second, the gift exchange went very well as they were very happy and so were Kim and I. I particularly was delighted with the sweater they gave me - see photo below. The racing - it was a HIGHLY successful day; and to top things off we saw a great hockey game, AND WON! Here's how the racing unfolded.......

The first race on my multi-race/multi-track selection sheet came from Gulfstream, the second which was a claiming event on the turf around two turns. It looked to me like there was very little speed in the race and I thought jockey Jose Ortiz would place Sinatra close to the soft pace. Sinatra regularly posted Beyer figures that the rest could only reach with career best efforts AND he'd had a four race winning streak snapped when he tried one of the rich $100K Claiming Crown stakes on Opening Day. The drop into this $16K spot seemed ideal. Surprisingly the crowd did NOT send him off as the favorite, and more surprisingly, Ortiz sat chilly near the back of the field through a pretty quick pace. He asked for run approaching the far turn. The favorite got caught in traffic while Ortiz swung Sinatra wide for a clear run. By the time the favorite found a seam it was too little and way too late as I was home free. The double invest netted me a snappy $30 and change! Whooooo hoooooo!

I was second best in the third with a prime time play. I wavered on (a) sticking with the selection and (b) changing the amount of the bet because everyone liked another - who was the favorite. And what didn't set right for me was that the favorite had been cross-entered for a race on Sunday and scratched out to run today. That one went wire to wire while I was clearly second best. Next up was the first of the many stakes events in Maryland, The Heft for two-year-olds. Granted these are lightly raced juveniles but it appeared it was a two-horse event with my pick, Diamond King, looking to run down A Different Style again, as they'd done when they met in the maiden ranks. For some reason the crowd made 'Style the favorite and I was a healthy 6/5. Instead of sitting off the pace 'King engaged the favorite immediately and they dueled to mid-way on the turn. Diamond King edged clear but the pace duel had weakened him and the third choice came roaring up and as heads turned for home that one got in front. But Diamond King would not go away. He fought back, they were on even terms, dueled, and then in a remarkable performance - especially for a juvenile - he drew off late! NICE!

Minutes later I was back at Gulfstream where I had a questionable pick. Mr. Baker was a multiple stakes winner in 2014 locally, but after a try in Keeneland's Gr 3 Phoenix he'd had many issues. He was gone TWO YEARS before returning in a second level allowance with two wins and a fourth in a stakes, then faded badly at the close of 2016. He was third last February and off until December 8th when he was completely outrun. So today he was plummeted to a bottom level $6.25K sprint. He was either simply too good, or would not hit the board. He was in hand pressing the lead, opened up and looked home free before shortening stride - but still good enough to hang on. Only risked the minimum but picked up another win.

Back to Laurel where I had picks in back-to-back stakes. In the Politely Stakes it seemed pretty clear to me that the one to beat was My Magician who'd already beaten SIX of these previously, soundly. He was a dual stakes winner locally and was dropping out of a fourth in OPEN company. But both online handicappers liked the new shooter to the field. That one seemed home free into the long Laurel stretch as My Magician began rallying from the back. But as heads turned home it was clear I had ALL the momentum, but could I get there in time......photo finish! But I was pretty sure, I'd inhaled the entire field, including the favorite. The best part was the price was a generous $7.60 and I cashed for nearly $40. In the next event, the Jennings I was really confused. Granted John Jones was parked wide in post eleven, but he had won this race last year as a prohibitive 1-2 favorite. How could he be 6/1 in the program. As the post parade began the selections for all six public handicappers appeared on the screen with their TOP FOUR picks. Of the 24 horses listed, my pick, John Jones was picked third by one guy - not even in the top four contenders for all the others. But the crowd was in agreement with me, making him a mild favorite. As they hit the far turn jockey Edgar Prado asked John Jones to accelerate from mid-pack and he blew by the field and won going away. The $5.60 payoff led to nearly $30 more dollars. I'd now won five of my first six selections! So glad I decided to play multiple tracks!

I had looked over the card for the Fair Grounds and had picks in four of them, but one scratched leaving three plays on the day from New Orleans. The first pick was in the second race, a maiden event for two-year-olds and I liked Lougarou who had debuted at even money, got the lead, and was caught in a head bob. As the DRF's Marcus Hersch said, it was as good as "standout" as you can get in a $12.5K maiden claimer. He pressed the pace to the far turn and ran away as much, much the best. Love that my girl Chantal Sutherland was in the irons for another win as she continues her winter campaign in New Orleans for the first time. Make my start now SIX for seven!

Missed in two straight to return to reality before it was post time for one of the featured Gulfstream's events, the Tropical Park Oaks. My only concern in supporting Chad Brown's Dream A While was that Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez was riding and that pair had already disappointed me on more than one occasion. But the filly, she looked really good. She'd won two of three in her native France, including a small stakes. Her first North American start for Brown had resulted in a disappointing third, but (a) she was only 3/4 of a length behind the winner, and (b) had been closing into a glacial pace (:25-:50-1:14). With any kind of pace she'd be the one to beat. Velazquez swung her wide through the turn and she was picking off runners. But when she neared the leaders shortly after straightening for the sprint to the wire she EXPLODED with a sudden acceleration that carried to her decisive win. A double investment and a generous $7.40 payoff led to my collecting nearly $40 on my seventh win of the day.

As I was watching the early part of the Gulfstream Park live stream my interest was peaked when the handicappers mentioned Edgar Zayas was out of town. I wondered if he was in Tampa to ride in their turf sprint stakes, so I flipped screens to see. Sure enough, but the BEST news was WHO he was riding......on Gulfstream's Opening Day card my BET of the DAY had been on Pay Any Price in the Canterbury Stakes, a five furlong turf sprint. He is an extremely quick front runner and holds the course record for the distance. After he wired that field, and was just good enough to hold on off a long layoff his trainer had been interviewed and he remarked that they knew he was not quite 100% but thought he was good enough to win, and he did. Now, here he was second off the bench and probably fitter. The only concern for me - because I'd not looked at the past performances of the field - was that Tampa's course is not typically kind to front runners. Still, he is one quick horse. I made him my BET of the Day (my former best had scratched out of one of the Laurel stakes). Right to the front and though the field was closing the gap in deep stretch there was never any danger. I collected another $30 on my EIGHTH win of the day!

The rest of the day was somewhat anti-climatic for racing. After my top choice in the Laurel races scratched I didn't have any more picks, and a good thing as racing was canceled following the seventh race (where I faded to 9th at 8/5). One of my last two selections at the Fair Grounds was out, my pick in the Grade 1 American Oaks at Santa Anita scratched, and the top choice in the Gulfstream finale scratched. I won the second at Santa Anita where two very promising colts squared off in a MSW - both I think will be heard from through the sprint. I liked Richard Mandella's Peace with Mike Smith. He rated off the pace and drove by the leaders to score as the 3/5 favorite.

Following the win by Peace and noting the scratches I did something I rarely do. I looked at how I was doing for the day. I saw that not only was I have a high win percentage day but I had scored a solid profit on the day. I looked at my last two picks, both I'd originally intended to make "prime time" investments. I didn't feel comfortable, and to be honest I think it had a lot to do with the fact that I'd had such a "lean" week of racing. I didn't want to finish with a big win pct and a small profit so I cut them both back to double investments. In the first, the Woodchopper at the Fair Grounds, Mr. Misunderstood won his eighth consecutive turf race to stay unbeaten on the green as the 3/2 favorite. But in the Santa Anita race, the Grade 3 Midnight Lute I ran 3rd at 6/5. So I made a profit on the two races and would have had I stuck with the original bets, but I didn't lose much profit since the winner was the favorite. Check out my day's wagers - TEN for SEVENTEEN and a nice profit on the day of nearly $60!